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It's Freezing in Texas, please shut the freezer door up north...... (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter coopersdad
- Start date
Instinctive
Footballguy
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
Binky The Doormat
Footballguy
For those interested - this is a review of the events presentation made by ERCOT on Feb. 24 to their Board.
http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/key_documents_lists/225373/Urgent_Board_of_Directors_Meeting_2-24-2021.pdf
http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/key_documents_lists/225373/Urgent_Board_of_Directors_Meeting_2-24-2021.pdf
DallasDMac
Footballguy
I haven't watched the hearings. I note from what I've seen that the ERCOT CEO is clinging to the assertion that if he hadn't done what he did, it would have been much worse. Has anyone addressed the fact that they were in that position because they have done literally nothing to ensure the system's reliability the past ten years? Had ERCOT been doing their jobs, they would have never been in the position to have to make that choice during this storm.
DallasDMac
Footballguy
So the bill for San Antonio, the "fuel surcharge" that the municipally owned energy company is looking to pass on to the customers, is now estimated at 1 BILLION dollars! That's BILLION, with a B. I don't get how a grocery store can be charged with price gouging for charging more for bottled water, but natural gas companies can get away with 16000% mark-ups. The first Texas energy wholesaler has already filed for bankruptcy. Fairly sure that is the first of many.
DallasDMac
Footballguy
You do realize that when you say "die by the sword" that you are talking millions of average Texans that are going to be forced to foot that bill right? You are talking about millions of average citizens being financially ruined, forced in to poverty, losing homes, etc, All for something they had absolutely no control over. So I'll go ahead and keep my opinions of your comments to myself since I don't really need another timeout.
culdeus
Footballguy
Why?
The most likely end game here is the generators don't get the windfall. Last Tuesday night they were making 4c/kwh. The fact that it was 8F two Tuesdays ago doesn't mean they automatically get 800c/kwh just because some oligarchs say so. That money is not coming from the resellers, it's not coming from the consumers, so where is it coming from?
You push a reseller to pay up, they close up shop, open another one. You push a consumer to do so, they declare bankruptcy and file for protection, or simply just ignore it. There are already 6 month holds on shutdowns in place. Nobody in their right mind is going to pay 20-30-100k for a week's worth of electricity. It's not happening, period.
The plants that put out power those nights, are the heroes here, they don't get to just rake in god like stacks of money for it. It's their ####### job.
SWC
Bromigo
hey dallas dmac this i dont think companies that jacked up rates should get a bailout they should fail plain and simple and frankly if we are going to go after grocery stores for raising prices on hand sanitizer during covid we sure as hell should be head hunting energy providers that did the same thing with energy rates during a crisis and not instead throw money at them take that to the bank brohans
Redwes25
Footballguy
Not sure you really understand the role of ERCOT or any independent system operator. They just manage the grid (help determine what plants run) and balance the system. Very important job to make sure the system doesn’t collapse but they don’t own the assets that went off line due to cold and they have no authority to force the companies that own the assets to improve them.
While they make a great scapegoat the inherent design of the Texas system is the main cause.
culdeus
Footballguy
Nothing required a system to jack electric rates up in response to demand to 500x baseline rates other than greed.
A full grid blackout that requires such a greed based system is sure to fail.
SWC
Bromigo
ok listen this is way over my head but are you saying that is it true that the system was set up so that if there was a crisis that the companies would be able to gouge consumers please fill me in take that to the bank brohan
Binky The Doormat
Footballguy
A competitive market relies on supply and demand ...more and more scarcity equals higher and higher prices - it was always going to be that way.
I was there in the middle of the process of market rules development. That was my job. I represented Entergy, an integrated utility that serves part of Eastern Texas, most of Louisiana and Arkansas, and Western Mississippi. There are a number of smaller companies that are in Texas, but not a part of ERCOT. We were being forced to move to competition in our Texas properties since we were under the perview of the PUCT (Public Utilities Commission of Texas) - even though we were also under the perview of the FERC at the federal level.
The PUCT had to focus on getting the ERCOT companies to competition by Jan. 1, 2002 so we Non-ERCOT companies would come later after generation/transmission rules for us were determined. They had/have full control of our end-user/customer rules.
We and several other of the Non-ERCOT utilities argued on many occasions that there were a number of issues that troubled us - especially the lack of an "Installed Capacity Market" that was present in some existing ISOs (Independent Service Operators ...like ERCOT). This is essential in maintaining reliability when there are lots of outages.
We were basically told they knew better and were going to do it better in Texas (think Yosemite Sam). I always thought that the "Everything in Texas is better people" was a joke ...it's not. Even after the California fiasco - in which Enron clearly was a part of market manipulation, as well as Reliant, along with other generators, the PUCT maintained their market and market design would be so good it would never happen there.
Make no mistake - this market design was driven by Enron, TXU and Reliant. They were the 900lb. gorillas in every committee meeting and steamrolled anything that wasn't a part of their agenda.
Thank goodness after 5 to 6 more years of trying to work out some kind of arrangement that would bring competition to Non-ERCOT territories - that met the PUCT's satisfaction and kept any risk of FERC involvement out of the picture ...the PUCT decided it would no longer pursue electric competition in Texas Non-ERCOT areas.
Redwes25
Footballguy
It is not so simple. Basically the issue is that electricity demand is inelastic for a number of reason (a consumer has no idea what the actual price is on the wholesale market and it is necessary good (still need heat especially when it is cold and demand is high)). So at times wholesale price for electricity can be going through the roof due to freezing temps that are also creating supply issues but you sit in your home heating it oblivous to the costs and also needing that heat so your pipes don't freeze.
Historically this was dealt with a cost+profit regime with rates set by the public utility commisssion but this was inherently inefficient and ended up with expensive rates for consumers so folks worked on deregulating the markets starting in the 1990s to create competition and efficiencies. Generally this has been a good thing for rate payers but not always (Calinfornia energy crisis is another example). The cost plus regime had huge failures as well (go look up LILCO as a good example)
Texas has taken the most aggresive free market approach in the country with very open power markets. Basically the price of electricity itself is designed to spur investment and reliability. So price fluctuations including high prices on wholesale market are designed to compensate suppliers and spur investments. There is also a completely deregulated retail market with competing retailers trying to sell electricity pitching their "plans". Some of those plans say they will just pass along the wholesale price to the consumers. This creates the situation where a retail rate payer is all of sudden paying ski high rates. They of course due get benefit of paying rates lower then their neighbors at other times who likely have plans that charge more money when wholesale rates are low in exchange for protection from the whims of the wholesale market.
The rest of the country deals with these things in different ways. First you can't buy certain electricity plans like they have in Texas anywhere else. Also, they have partial deregulated markets that don't just rely on price of electricity to create reliability. For example, certain markets have installed capacity markets that pay suppliers to just have a plant sit idle and be ready if needed and that gets passed along to retail payers. Or regulated frameworks that due the same and they pass along those capacity cost to consumers on cost+ regime. What Texas needs to do is adjust the framework to deal with the realities of a market that doesn't always work in a pure free market regime given the inelastic market.
Hope this long post is helpful and you can take it to the bank.
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Redwes25
Footballguy
Interesting, I remember those days as well. I am out of the power business but worked in the business in late 90s/early 2000s and remember those things well. That California market framework had other inherent issues and yes Enron and others were playing in the market a lot of the overall design created the crisis more then anything else. Like Texas, California didn't have an ICAP market in those days. They don't have one now either and use a more regulated framework I described above.
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DallasDMac
Footballguy
Energy companies normally have meteorologist on the payroll to predict weather events. CPS Energy is San Antonio's source for weather info? A meteorology STUDENT and a local college. As in not even a meteorologist, How odd that the CEO of CPS refused to be interviewed on this little recently revealed factoid.
Mrs. Rannous
Footballguy
Ye gods. I had no idea what you were talking about, so I looked it up. That's just ridiculous.
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Not quite "remove all COVID restrictions to distract people" bad, but it is right up there. I think cowering and not facing the music in an interview is a very bad move on her part. Just makes her look that much worse.
WDIK2
Footballguy
Fill me in here. What's the point of all these energy companies having a meteorologist when forecasts are readily available?
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Ask the energy companies. It was on the national news. They reported it, I just passed it along. I am assuming a local meteorological expert is considered a bit more reliable than weather.com?
Mrs. Rannous
Footballguy
No person up in Minnesota is going to be familiar with local conditions. Parts of Houston can have very different forecasts. Each power plant needs to know what local conditions are likely to prevail in order to take proper measures to maintain service.WDIK2 said:
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Phil Elliott
Footballguy
We got our electric bill today which included the week of the storm and it was $196. Last month's was $129. Was much better than I expected. We never lost power but kept usage to a minimum except for furnace and pool pump. We have Austin Energy. AE is one power utility that is excempt from deregulation so you don't have a choice of utility companies. You do have a choice to get energy thru solar/wind generattion if you want.
Mrs. Rannous
Footballguy
Anyone else considering getting solar panels? We've pretty much decided on Tesla panels and batteries. We were really thinking of hurricanes here, but then that happened.
The Tick
Footballguy
Saw you posted this so I went to check my Atmos bill and it was less than the month before. the bill was listed as through he 18th, but I know some of those bill aren't always accurate to the day, so I may still get a surprise next month.
culdeus
Footballguy
In Texas batteries make nearly no sense. If a pure grid situation you can get a generac for 20% of the cost
Mrs. Rannous
Footballguy
And that's why we're getting the batteries. We can supply our own electricity when the power is out. Plus, we don't have to use the grid at all on many days. We did consider the Generac, but it just wasn't as good. (And you do have to have a gas line sufficient to be able to install it.)
Instinctive
Footballguy
We have the Tesla panels, and considered the battery when we bought the house. The ROI wasn't there given minimal impact when power does go out (typically it's in heat which is annoying but manageable and not costly). We considered it again after that awful week, and decided if it can be 40 degrees in our house in the worst storm of our lifetimes, with no power for 3 days and we survive basically fine...combine that with the chances of something as bad ever happening again and it definitely doesn't make financial sense.
BUT...if we had that cash sitting around we'd probably consider the luxury. But we're looking at an outdoor kitchen, saving for surrogacy, and a couple other things first.
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Nope. Gonna go two 2200w Honda generators that I can run in parallel. Enough power with them running together to power everything, and light enough I can load one in my truck to power a camper if I go somewhere without a hookup.
Mrs. Rannous
Footballguy
But I don't think you live in the hurricane zone. Also, we're looking to use it as a UPS as well. A really expensive UPS. And we have the bucks. (I really don't care for the noise of the generators.)
Good luck with the child. That would be awesome.
culdeus
Footballguy
If the gas goes out the world is basically ending. In Texas there is zero payback on a battery wall. You can't load share. If you are just looking at blackouts then the generac will be far cheaper. And you won't have to put soft starts on everything and all the other crap they don't tell you.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I do not believe Dallas counts as a hurricane zone
Yeah having the bucks makes it no different than me being like "well a mercedes doesn't feel worth it over my Subaru" - but it's a luxury to get if you like a nicer car, little quieter, couple extra comforts, etc.
Thanks for the well wishes. We are just beginning a journey I expect to take years.
Mrs. Rannous
Footballguy
I didn't say anything about the gas going out. To get a Generac, you need the right type of gas line.
And what is "zero payback on a battery wall"? And what do you mean we can't load share? We ca sell electricity to the power company.
Also, "soft starts on everything"? What does this mean? (Sorry about all the questions.)
Mrs. Rannous
Footballguy
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