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RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (1 Viewer)

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Footballguy
Jermar is a prototypical size NFL RB at 5'10" 215. He picked up 3200 yards from scrimmage in 3 years at OSU. He's projected to be a late round pick, but I think he is underrated and reminds me a bit of Dalvin Cook. Would love to draft him in round 2 of rookie drafts.

 
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Oregon State junior RB Jermar Jefferson declared for the NFL Draft. 

Just days after Oregon State's last game against Arizona State, Jefferson has decided he will be headed to the NFL. At 5-foot-10, 214-pounds, Jefferson sports a rock-solid frame and runs with plenty of power to back it up. Jefferson handled 133 carries for 858 yards and seven touchdowns in just six games this year, though he didn't add much as a pass-catcher. Jefferson could be a nice steal as a rotational RB on Day 3. 

SOURCE: Jermar Jefferson on Twitter

Dec 24, 2020, 5:47 PM ET

 
I don't know any better (even though I live in Oregon) but have heard a little hype from a couple places so I am interested in following. Right now I've got him right around RB6 or 7 so black star me. 

 
I don't really get the love for Jefferson. He seems good enough, but not my style of RB as much. I've seen a few hype him up that I really respect, I just can't fully get on board. Just comes across as "ok" to me.

 
Updated 2021 dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings

Excerpt:

14) Jermar Jefferson (RB5 – Oregon State)

Jermar Jefferson will be the guy that will rise the most from now until the draft, and if he gets the required draft capital, it’s going to take a pick this high to secure him. 

Jefferson broke out as a freshman and continued to perform in all three seasons at Oregon State. He ended his career with 3,200 total scrimmage yards and 29 touchdowns. He is not a pass-catching back at all, but he makes up for it on the ground with phenomenal vision. Jefferson doesn’t dance around, but he shows patience before using his burst to run with low-4.5 speed.

 
Had 43 receptions in college including 25 in 2018. I get that those aren't big numbers but I don't get the narrative that he can't catch. I have receiving as one of his question marks right now but I'm wondering why. Because people in blurbs said so. I'm sure he isn't the next Kamara out of the backfield but is he really useless? Maybe a deeper dive on that?

 
Had 43 receptions in college including 25 in 2018. I get that those aren't big numbers but I don't get the narrative that he can't catch. I have receiving as one of his question marks right now but I'm wondering why. Because people in blurbs said so. I'm sure he isn't the next Kamara out of the backfield but is he really useless? Maybe a deeper dive on that?
One of the biggest mistakes people make is assuming just because a RB didn’t catch a lot of passes in college doesn’t mean he can’t catch passes.  Sometimes it’s the scheme that can mask a player’s ability in the receiving game.  Besides, 25 receptions  in one season isn’t exactly invisible.

 
One of the biggest mistakes people make is assuming just because a RB didn’t catch a lot of passes in college doesn’t mean he can’t catch passes.  Sometimes it’s the scheme that can mask a player’s ability in the receiving game.  Besides, 25 receptions  in one season isn’t exactly invisible.
Exactly. And I think it is a mistake that happens a bit. 

 
I don't really get the love for Jefferson. He seems good enough, but not my style of RB as much. I've seen a few hype him up that I really respect, I just can't fully get on board. Just comes across as "ok" to me.
I agree he doesn't really look the part when I watch him run, but he does seem to check most of the boxes. His listed size is in the range I like, he has production, he looks like he'll have enough speed, and he's young as a true junior. In a not great class (especially with the top couple guys being 22-23 already), just checking the boxes is probably enough for top 5ish positional rank. 

 
I believe he's somewhat underrated in fantasy circles right now.  With no combine that probably won't change much between now and the draft.
I do, too. I think he runs a lot better than he's being given credit for. One fantasy circle that is high on him is RotoUnderworld. They've got him as a mid-to-late first rounder because of his freshman production and dominator rating. Ask them, not me. I'm hoping he stays early 3rd or mid-2nd.

 
I think Jermar Jefferson belongs in the conversation as a top 5 RB in this class.  I have him in a RB5-7 tier along with Michael Carter and Chuba Hubbard, and I contend Jefferson has the highest potential ceiling of these backs.  I would be excited to get Jefferson with a mid-to-late round 2 dynasty pick, and if he fell to the 3rd, I would make a strong move to grab him.  Obviously, we are still early in this process, and individual workouts and the NFL draft will factor heavily in fantasy rankings, but if I were drafting today, Jefferson would certainly be on my target list.

 
I do, too. I think he runs a lot better than he's being given credit for. One fantasy circle that is high on him is RotoUnderworld. They've got him as a mid-to-late first rounder because of his freshman production and dominator rating. Ask them, not me. I'm hoping he stays early 3rd or mid-2nd.
They are probably big enough that if they hype him, he won't see the 3rd round in any drafts come the Spring

 
They are probably big enough that if they hype him, he won't see the 3rd round in any drafts come the Spring
Yeah, you're almost definitely right. I'd bet he goes at the beginning to the middle of the second, if not in the first. Depends on who drafts him and when, though.

 
rockaction said:
Yeah, you're almost definitely right. I'd bet he goes at the beginning to the middle of the second, if not in the first. Depends on who drafts him and when, though.
Good point. Especially with a guy who is a bit fringey, he could be a 3rd rounder if the draft goes poorly. If he is taken in the early 5th or lands on Baltimore or New Orleans, it could be hard to see his path for success. 

 
Good point. Especially with a guy who is a bit fringey, he could be a 3rd rounder if the draft goes poorly. If he is taken in the early 5th or lands on Baltimore or New Orleans, it could be hard to see his path for success. 
Yep. And Baltimore would be a death knell for any running back right now, but unless Edwards leaves, I don't see them drafting one. But that's neither here nor there and just me thinking out loud. Terrible place to land for fantasy purposes. I'm still waiting on Justice Hill, who I acquired this year for nothing. I'm hoping.

 
Yep. And Baltimore would be a death knell for any running back right now, but unless Edwards leaves, I don't see them drafting one. But that's neither here nor there and just me thinking out loud. Terrible place to land for fantasy purposes. I'm still waiting on Justice Hill, who I acquired this year for nothing. I'm hoping.
I like it, I was really excited about Justice. Wish he would get traded but those kinds of moves rarely happen in the NFL. 

 
2021 NFL draft: Ohio State's Shaun Wade cracks top 100 prospects

Excerpt:

t-100. Oregon State RB Jermar Jefferson

5-foot-10, 217 pounds

Yahoo Sports draft grade: 5.71 — starter potential

TL;DR scouting report: Nicely built back who lacks extra gear but consistently churned out long runs in impressive three-year career

Games watched: Hawaii (2019), Cal (2019), Cal (2020), Oregon (2020), Stanford (2020)

The skinny: A 3-star Rivals recruit, Jefferson started nine of 12 games as a true freshman in 2018 and was named Pac-12 Freshman Offensive Player of the Year after setting the school mark for rushing yards by a true freshman (1,380). Suffering through a chronic ankle injury and splitting carries with Artavis Pierce in 2019, Jefferson’s production fell off (685 rush yards, eight rush TDs).

Jefferson finished his career with a brilliant 2020 season — 858 yards, seven TDs rushing in six games — before declaring early for the 2021 NFL draft.

Upside: Averaged 5.7 yards per carry and one rushing TD per game in his career, despite not playing behind overly talented offensive line. Collected 15 100-yard rushing efforts in 27 games (21 starts).

Good vision to anticipate and find holes — a run-to-daylight back. Excellent short-area quickness and fairly elusive for a back pushing 220 pounds. He can make defenders miss in tight quarters and does a great job of turning 3-yard losses into positive plays. Squeezes out extra yards with nice contact balance with a compact, sturdy frame and by keeping his feet alive.

Collected 78 runs of 10-plus yards and seven runs of 45-plus in 514 career rushes. Low mileage with fewer than 600 carries and has shown to handle a medium-sized load (14 games with 20-plus carries).

Reliable safety-valve receiver who dropped one career pass, caught 43 of his 49 targets and averaged a healthy 9.3 yards per reception.

Downside: Ball security is concerning. He had six fumbles in 559 touches, including three in 144 touches in 2020. Bit of a singles hitter as a runner who pops an occasional home run.

Limited usage as receiver — asked to catch only screens, bubbles, swing routes, etc. Had one one career catch more than 10 yards downfield. Targeted only 25 times in final 17 college games.

Doesn’t possess breakaway speed despite penchant for big plays. Could stand to run with more force and pop behind his pads. He's not really a power back for his size. Lacks great open-field creativity as a runner.

His injury history must be vetted as Jefferson was plagued by ankle and foot injuries in 2019. Missed possible showcase game vs. Utah for COVID-related reasons. Might fall into the jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none category.

Best-suited destination: Jefferson profiles as a change-of-pace runner who can develop his third-down ability over time.

Did you know: Jefferson’s father, Herb, was a 5-foot-7, 165-pound wide receiver at Sonoma State in the early 1990s (where he was a teammate of future Cowboy Larry Allen) who played semi-pro ball as a QB into his 40s.

Player comp: Jefferson is somewhere on the Joshua Kelley/Mike Davis spectrum

Expected draft range: Rounds 4-5

 
NFL draft 2021 mailbag: Mel Kiper answers 15 questions on quarterback prospects, teams and picks

Excerpt:

Who's an underrated running back to know in this draft? (via @JayC9099)

I like the way Oregon State's Jermar Jefferson plays. He's my eighth-ranked back. He runs hard and also can catch the ball. He rushed for 2,923 yards and 27 touchdowns over the past three seasons, and he caught 43 passes. He's going to be a Day 3 pick, but he can play -- he hasn't been talked about enough over the past year.

 
Watched this guy play a lot at Oregon State.  He's an absolute stud and I hate losing him to the NFL.  But he's going to prove a lot of people wrong.  Like others say, he checks all the boxes and the offense revolved around him mainly because of how good he runs.  Can see him going to a team with an established aging starter (kind of a Dobbins situation) and taking over by years end, or at least heading into next year.

 
Watched this guy play a lot at Oregon State.  He's an absolute stud and I hate losing him to the NFL.  But he's going to prove a lot of people wrong.  Like others say, he checks all the boxes and the offense revolved around him mainly because of how good he runs.  Can see him going to a team with an established aging starter (kind of a Dobbins situation) and taking over by years end, or at least heading into next year.
I can’t believe I agree with Daemon for once. 😀

 
I think @ZWK metrics show pretty much an average dude here. Not a lot of explosive runs. I’ll see what yards created says and possibly where he is drafted but right now he’s overrated in my book.

 
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Patriots: Does latest draft buzz signal the end of James White in New England? (FanSided article with autoplay video)

Excerpt:

The Pats have apparently met virtually with Oregon State running back Jermar Jefferson, who’s been soaring up draft boards over the last few weeks.
Excerpt:

Considering how many draft outlets that exist these days, it’s extremely difficult to pin down exactly where a prospect who isn’t a surefire top pick will end up getting selected. However, the consensus understanding among scouts and analysts is that Jefferson could fall anywhere  between the third and sixth rounds.

 
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At the end of round 1 or early round 2 of dynasty rookie drafts, do you take the safe pick in Jefferson, or swing more to the fences with a high upside / high risk players like Gainwell, Freirmuth (only in the sense of TE risk.  For a TE he is about as sure as it gets), Fields, Elijah Moore, or another safe pick like Terrace Marshall?   For me personally I wouldn't draft Jefferson in the first round of standard 1 qb dynasty leagues, but I would start considering him in the early to mid-2nd.

 
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Predicting top 2021 rookie running backs using dominator rating

Excerpt:

Williams and Jefferson can be grouped together because their production profiles follow a very similar pattern. Both posted their highest single-season dominator ratings — Williams (32%), Jefferson (29%) — in their true freshman seasons. 

High-end early-age production is a great sign for any prospect, especially when they follow it up with productive seasons. Williams went on to post back-to-back seasons with at least a 22% dominator rating while earning a PFF rushing grade of 92.9.

Jefferson was able to duplicate his spectacular freshman season as a junior with another 29% dominator rating in 2020. 

 
At the end of round 1 or early round 2 of dynasty rookie drafts, do you take the safe pick in Jefferson, or swing more to the fences with a high upside / high risk players like Gainwell, Freirmuth (only in the sense of TE risk.  For a TE he is about as sure as it gets), Fields, Elijah Moore, or another safe pick like Terrace Marshall?   For me personally I wouldn't draft Jefferson in the first round of standard 1 qb dynasty leagues, but I would start considering him in the early to mid-2nd.
Really really depends on draft capital and landing spot with Jefferson. I see a really wide variance in his possible draft capital.

 
I think @ZWK metrics show pretty much an average dude here. Not a lot of explosive runs. I’ll see what yards created says and possibly where he is drafted but right now he’s overrated in my book.
Again depends where he is taken. 

Is he overrated in the 2nd round?  Yes.
Is he underrated in the 6th round?  Yes.

 
Again depends where he is taken. 

Is he overrated in the 2nd round?  Yes.
Is he underrated in the 6th round?  Yes.
Eh... that’s not how I’m looking at things. 

Pre-draft: Is he going in the 1st round of a good % of rookie mocks? Yes, overrated. 

Post-draft: Does he go to San Francisco on day 2? Yes, throw the auxiliary numbers out the window he’s appropriate in the 1st. 

If he goes later than day two, I will have zero of him on my teams.

 
Eh... that’s not how I’m looking at things. 

Pre-draft: Is he going in the 1st round of a good % of rookie mocks? Yes, overrated. 

Post-draft: Does he go to San Francisco on day 2? Yes, throw the auxiliary numbers out the window he’s appropriate in the 1st. 

If he goes later than day two, I will have zero of him on my teams.
I guess we are looking at things from a fantasy perspective vs a real life perspective.  I have zero clue if he's overrated or underrated fantasy wise as it all depends on his landing spot and opportunities.

From a pure football standpoint, if he's going in round 6 of the NFL draft, he's a huge steal IMO.  If he goes round 2, it might be a reach.  Many rankings (NFL, not Fantasy) have him as the 16th best RB in the draft... I think this is criminally underrated.

 
I guess we are looking at things from a fantasy perspective vs a real life perspective.  I have zero clue if he's overrated or underrated fantasy wise as it all depends on his landing spot and opportunities.

From a pure football standpoint, if he's going in round 6 of the NFL draft, he's a huge steal IMO.  If he goes round 2, it might be a reach.  Many rankings (NFL, not Fantasy) have him as the 16th best RB in the draft... I think this is criminally underrated.
I think he is definitely a 2nd round rookie pick in dynasty leagues if he gets the draft capital.  I also think he is a safe 2nd rd pick, but not one with a lot of upside, but not a dart throw either.  Draft capital will matter.  If he can somehow get drafted in the third round I’ll feel better about drafting him in the 2nd round of my rookie draft.  Otherwise he’s a 3rd round pick for me.

 
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If you just heard a loud thud, don't be alarmed, it was just Jefferson's draft stock falling after his pro day.

Nagy made a typo on his last name but it's Jefferson.

Jim Nagy

@JimNagy_S

@BeaverFootball

Part II: RB Jermar Johnson

HT 5101

WT 206

Hand 9 5/8

Arm 30 1/2

Wing 74 1/4

40-yd 4.55/ 4.57

VJ 31.0

BJ 9-7

SS 4.38

3C 7.38

BP 13x

 
I’m not impressed.  He’s a 5th or 6th rd pick at best.  I wouldn’t touch him before the 4th rd of a rookie draft, with the belief it is a throw away pick.

 
Oregon State RB Jermar Jefferson ran a 4.55 second 40-yard dash at his pro day workout.

Jefferson's (6'0/206) 40-yard dash time was a respectable mark that ranked in the 46th percentile, while his 3-cond time of 7.38, vertical jump of 31" and 13 bench press reps were all considered times in the lowest 10 percentile of NFL worth running backs. He burst onto the scene rushing for 1,380 yards and 12 touchdowns as a true freshman in 2018. His numbers dipped in 2019 -- various nagging injuries did not help -- before he rebounded for a final nice season this past fall (858 yards, career-best 6.5 YPC in six games). His pro day results would have to be considered a disappointment and he is likely in the mid-late Day 3 mix for the NFL Draft.

SOURCE: PFF.com

Apr 4, 2021, 4:55 PM ET

 
BackCAST 2021

Excerpt:

Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State Beavers
BackCAST Score: +36.3%
RecIndex: +0.01
Similar Historical Prospects: Cedric Benson, Kareem Hunt

Jermar Jefferson sneaks into the top echelon of BackCAST's projections for one reason only: he dominated Oregon State's backfield very early in his career. Jefferson carried the football 239 times as a freshman, was actually second in carries behind Artavis Pierce as a sophomore, and then reestablished dominance in six of Oregon State's seven games during his junior year. As a result, Jefferson has an AOEPS of +20.0%, which is even a little better than recent all-world prospect Saquon Barkley. Jefferson was also efficient. His yards per attempt improved every year, and he finished with 5.68 yards per carry for his college career.

However, Jefferson's weakness is his raw speed. Jefferson ran his 40-yard dash in 4.6 seconds, which is disappointing for a player who is only 206 pounds. Although his dash time is not a good sign, it is something that many prospects have overcome.

Although the production and athleticism trends each point in the opposite direction, when considered together, Jefferson comes out as better than average. Teams seem to be sleeping on Jefferson, but he is definitely a prospect who could surprise.

 

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