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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Michael Carter, Jets


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1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

Trade down before reaching.

That and Javante could easily be there

Definitely considering trading down when I’m on the clock (but it takes 2 to tango and this isn’t the most active league for trading) but want to  see who’s actually there for my pick. 
I kinda like Javante to the Broncos hoping it depresses his value by 1 pick and I’ll gladly wait til next year when he takes over from Gordon. 
(dang it. Just checked and the Melvin Gordon owner drafts at 1.04 so I imagine he’d take Javante. Oh well.)

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  • IHEARTFF changed the title to Dynasty & Redraft: RB Michael Carter, Jets
18 minutes ago, The Man With No Name said:

*

Drafted him and will look to flip him for a 2022 1st if he has early success

edit: 5th running back, IDP league

Grabbed Carter at the 1.10. Fingers crossed...

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I had someone offer me the 2.01 for my 2022 1st.  Accepted and happily took Carter. This is a startup and I definitely plan on this being a late 1st next year looking at my lineup.  Was lucky to get Waddle, Sermon and Carter in the first 13 picks.  

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17 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Aaron Jones - 5th rounder.....I could go on. kind of a poor take

I gently disagree. Not many late-round guys make an impact on fantasy teams. They were going over it in one article in pretty good detail. The guys picked that late generally don't amount to much and you can tell a lot about a guy's future prospects from draft capital alone. The fourth, fifth, and sixth-round names of the past ten years or so were uninspiring, to say the least.

Now, ZWK and somebody were recently having an interesting discussion about the devaluation of RBs and why that might mean that later-round RBs shouldn't be so shunned because they've all been devalued by the NFL, and one must take that into account when assessing how the NFL feels about a guy. That caveat aside, banking on Carter being the man in NY seems risky to me at his ADP, which is surprisingly very high.

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6 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I gently disagree. Not many late-round guys make an impact on fantasy teams. They were going over it in one article in pretty good detail. The guys picked that late generally don't amount to much and you can tell a lot about a guy's future prospects from draft capital alone. The fourth, fifth, and sixth-round names of the past ten years or so were uninspiring, to say the least.

Now, ZWK and somebody were recently having an interesting discussion about the devaluation of RBs and why that might mean that later-round RBs shouldn't be so shunned because they've all been devalued by the NFL, and one must take that into account when assessing how the NFL feels about a guy. That caveat aside, banking on Carter being the man in NY seems risky to me at his ADP, which is surprisingly very high.

I've been thinking this too. I'm still not touching Carter before the mid 2nd (so I'm not getting him), but I am wondering if 2021's 4th round rb's are prior year's round 3's. 

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1 minute ago, MAC_32 said:

I've been thinking this too. I'm still not touching Carter before the mid 2nd (so I'm not getting him), but I am wondering if 2021's 4th round rb's are prior year's round 3's. 

Yeah, it was in ZWK's ranking thread. He broke down the percentages of draft capital and the absolute loss of capital by all running backs over the years. Like most things mathematical, it went over my head a bit, but I gleaned the gist of the conclusion, which was that what you postulate is a bit true. Maybe more like a back-end 3rd or so?

Check the thread if you're interested. It should be there.

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One other small thing in Carter's defense is that the Jets didn't have a pick between 34 and 107 so who knows how high exactly he was on the Jets board. A small thing but we know 4th round and beyond RBs don't hit very often so maybe it can help us determine if Carter can be one of the Freeman, Jones exceptions or not. 

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, it was in ZWK's ranking thread. He broke down the percentages of draft capital and the absolute loss of capital by all running backs over the years. Like most things mathematical, it went over my head a bit, but I gleaned the gist of the conclusion, which was that what you postulate is a bit true. Maybe more like a back-end 3rd or so?

Check the thread if you're interested. It should be there.

I don't think I need to. The game's different now. Having a cost controlled 4th corner, 3rd edge, starting iOL, etc is more important than a 1b running back. Decision maker's have adjusted accordingly.

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1 minute ago, MAC_32 said:

I don't think I need to. The game's different now. Having a cost controlled 4th corner, 3rd edge, starting iOL, etc is more important than a 1b running back. Decision maker's have adjusted accordingly.

And it's reflected in the game play -- the best athletes are no longer playing the position. It's the only film I watch in sports where guys from two decades ago look much better at a position than the current guys. Except for baseball steroid guys, that is. Those guys still look like woolly mammoths. But yeah, I think the early careers and contract problems are causing a lot of guys to not necessarily play the once-glamour position of RB.

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3 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

I've been thinking this too. I'm still not touching Carter before the mid 2nd (so I'm not getting him), but I am wondering if 2021's 4th round rb's are prior year's round 3's. 

 

3 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

I don't think I need to. The game's different now. Having a cost controlled 4th corner, 3rd edge, starting iOL, etc is more important than a 1b running back. Decision maker's have adjusted accordingly.

I think there has been a lot of talk about scouting uncertainty because of COVID and opt outs, etc. I think teams wanted to load up on bigger bodies and defensive players while they knew they could wait a little bit further than usual on RB. I think the change you and ZWK are talking about (and I have brought it up in past seasons myself) is real, but it is possible that COVID exacerbated it. That is just conjecture because most people agree the RB class sucked after the top few. But it does make me wonder about some of those later names. Carter in his spot seems perfectly in the sweet spot to me. I still think they would want a bigger early down back though. I didn't get him anywhere but I was targeting Sermon in nearly the same area in most drafts. 

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Carter and Gainwell look similar on video. Carter is a good receiver, but Gainwell looks nearly elite as a receiver, catching back shoulder, and in traffic like a WR. He also looks a little more explosive than Carter.  Lots of bad defenses in the ACC,  including the U. What do I know, Gainwell went 5.6, and Carter 4.2. I'm surprised Miami didn't try  to draft Gainwell.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, rockaction said:

I gently disagree. Not many late-round guys make an impact on fantasy teams. They were going over it in one article in pretty good detail. The guys picked that late generally don't amount to much and you can tell a lot about a guy's future prospects from draft capital alone. The fourth, fifth, and sixth-round names of the past ten years or so were uninspiring, to say the least.

Now, ZWK and somebody were recently having an interesting discussion about the devaluation of RBs and why that might mean that later-round RBs shouldn't be so shunned because they've all been devalued by the NFL, and one must take that into account when assessing how the NFL feels about a guy. That caveat aside, banking on Carter being the man in NY seems risky to me at his ADP, which is surprisingly very high.

The problem with this is people have been making this argument for 10 years now.  So if we're comparing a 4th rounder now to 4th rounders within the last 10 years that is already baked in.

Shoot I remember reading posts 5-6 years ago titled things like "there will never be a RB picked in the 1st round again".  Yet here we ware.

 

3 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

I don't think I need to. The game's different now. Having a cost controlled 4th corner, 3rd edge, starting iOL, etc is more important than a 1b running back. Decision maker's have adjusted accordingly.

This is always a common talking point on message boards, but NFL teams continue to spend valuable draft capital on RBs, and give valuable contracts to RBs.  They continue to talk about the importance of players that have a "RB" listed next to their name on the depth chart.

The position has certainly been devalued from its heyday, but I think fantasy message boards are very out of touch with the actual NFL in terms of how much that is.

Every year boards are flooded with "xxxx team isn't going to spend a 2nd round pick on a RB with so many other holes on their team because everyone knows RBs don't really matter", and then that team goes over the top of them and spends a FIRST round pick on a RB.

Forget 4th corner or 3rd edge, there were teams this year that grabbed a 1b running back when they still needed a 1st corner or 1st edge.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Aaron Jones - 5th rounder.....I could go on. kind of a poor take

 

Low hit rate doesn't mean zero hit rate.  A 10% hit rate is fine with a late pick.  A tougher sell with a late 1st/early 2nd round pick.  We'd like to say a lack of competition and clearer path to touches should increase that dramatically (Carter to the Jets isn't the same as Walton to the Bengals), but it's still really bad.

Here are the 4th rounders that were drafted recently with a relatively good path to playing time

LaMical Perine
Justice Hill
Kenneth Dixon
Devontae Booker
Benny Snell
Kalen Ballage
Joe Williams
Jamaal Williams
Marlon Mack
Samaje Perine
Matt Jones
 

So of that list Marlon Mack gave a good 1.5 years, and the rest were pretty trash for fantasy purposes.  Mack along with Booker, Dixon, Joe Williams, Jamaal Williams, and Samaje Perine all had what were seen as very easy paths to playing time.

None of that is to say Carter can't be one of the handful of later round guys that end up being good fantasy assets, but rather that the odds of it happening don't justify a pick as high as he's going in my opinion. 

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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11 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Low hit rate doesn't mean zero hit rate.  A 10% hit rate is fine with a late pick.  A tougher sell with a late 1st/early 2nd round pick.  We'd like to say a lack of competition and clearer path to touches should increase that dramatically (Carter to the Jets isn't the same as Walton to the Bengals), but it's still really bad.

Here are the 4th rounders that were drafted recently with a relatively good path to playing time

LaMical Perine
Justice Hill
Kenneth Dixon
Devontae Booker
Benny Snell
Kalen Ballage
Joe Williams
Jamaal Williams
Marlon Mack
Samaje Perine
Matt Jones
 

So of that list Marlon Mack gave a good 1.5 years, and the rest were pretty trash for fantasy purposes.  Mack along with Booker, Dixon, Joe Williams, Jamaal Williams, and Samaje Perine all had what were seen as very easy paths to playing time.

None of that is to say Carter can't be one of the handful of later round guys that end up being good fantasy assets, but rather that the odds of it happening don't justify a pick as high as he's going in my opinion. 

while true the relative lack of depth at the rb position in this particular draft means Carter is going at like 1.09 - 2.02 

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This is what everyone can call confirmation bias and to a point it's true. Because we can list some RB's by these teams picked in similar range I'm about to mention that did not pan out, in fact most were listed in FreeBagels post a few above this one. But I don't think any of those RB's had skill sets as similar to these two players I'm about to mention as Carter either.

The players I'm talking about  are Aaron Jones and Devonta Freeman.  Players with similar draft pedigree and size who got drafted into this scheme who had success. Again we can list a lot of Rb's who did not reach fantasy success, but these two did and these two are very similar to Carter's profile IMO.

So remember Freeman is drafted in round 4 and reached massive success under Kyle Shanahan. Aaron Jones drafted in round 5 and reaches big success under Lafluer, whose roots are in same McVay/Shanahan tree and whose brother is now Carters OC.

Again just my opinion but while I would say the odds are Carter will be no more then a passing down back or part of RBBC I think the success of these two similar built RB's in same system warrants taking a late round one shot. Especially in FFPC type format were you don't have as much time to wait for potential development of a WR and supply of solid WR's is seemingly always available.

 

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

This is what everyone can call confirmation bias and to a point it's true. Because we can list some RB's by these teams picked in similar range I'm about to mention that did not pan out, in fact most were listed in FreeBagels post a few above this one. But I don't think any of those RB's had skill sets as similar to these two players I'm about to mention as Carter either.

The players I'm talking about  are Aaron Jones and Devonta Freeman.  Players with similar draft pedigree and size who got drafted into this scheme who had success. Again we can list a lot of Rb's who did not reach fantasy success, but these two did and these two are very similar to Carter's profile IMO.

So remember Freeman is drafted in round 4 and reached massive success under Kyle Shanahan. Aaron Jones drafted in round 5 and reaches big success under Lafluer, whose roots are in same McVay/Shanahan tree and whose brother is now Carters OC.

Again just my opinion but while I would say the odds are Carter will be no more then a passing down back or part of RBBC I think the success of these two similar built RB's in same system warrants taking a late round one shot. Especially in FFPC type format were you don't have as much time to wait for potential development of a WR and supply of solid WR's is seemingly always available.

 

The college highlights for Jones are more impressive than those for Cater. More explosive big plays for one, even if the 40 times are the same. Jones looks faster on his college highlights. Jones fell to the 5th because of size concerns, same as for Carter, and injury concerns, missing most of his 2015 season with a foot injury. Freeman might be a better comp. 

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Low hit rate doesn't mean zero hit rate.  A 10% hit rate is fine with a late pick.  A tougher sell with a late 1st/early 2nd round pick.  We'd like to say a lack of competition and clearer path to touches should increase that dramatically (Carter to the Jets isn't the same as Walton to the Bengals), but it's still really bad.

Here are the 4th rounders that were drafted recently with a relatively good path to playing time

LaMical Perine
Justice Hill
Kenneth Dixon
Devontae Booker
Benny Snell
Kalen Ballage
Joe Williams
Jamaal Williams
Marlon Mack
Samaje Perine
Matt Jones
 

So of that list Marlon Mack gave a good 1.5 years, and the rest were pretty trash for fantasy purposes.  Mack along with Booker, Dixon, Joe Williams, Jamaal Williams, and Samaje Perine all had what were seen as very easy paths to playing time.

None of that is to say Carter can't be one of the handful of later round guys that end up being good fantasy assets, but rather that the odds of it happening don't justify a pick as high as he's going in my opinion. 

I feel like this analysis would be more relevant by relative draft position.

Carter was the 4th RB taken.  Snell was the 10th.  Ballage was the 12th.

eta - Nick Chubb was the 4th taken in his class.

Edited by matuski
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50 minutes ago, matuski said:

Last 4 years 4th RB taken....

2017 - Joe Mixon

2018 - Nick Chubb

2019 - D Montgomery

2020 - Cam AKers

I am not on either side of the argument here, but this is pretty meaningless.  

I think we all know that not every RB class is the same top to bottom, just like every other position isnt either from year to year.

Would it matter if Carter was the 4th RB taken but not till the 7th round?

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1 hour ago, matuski said:

I feel like this analysis would be more relevant by relative draft position.

Carter was the 4th RB taken.  Snell was the 10th.  Ballage was the 12th.

eta - Nick Chubb was the 4th taken in his class.

Wasn't he the 5th RB taken?

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37 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

I am not on either side of the argument here, but this is pretty meaningless.  

I think we all know that not every RB class is the same top to bottom, just like every other position isnt either from year to year.

Would it matter if Carter was the 4th RB taken but not till the 7th round?

 Not sure about meaningless but it certainly does not prove anything either. However just for sake of accuracy here's the 5th RB taken: 

2021- Carter (107)

2020- Dobbins (55)

2019- Singletary (74)

2018- Ronald Jones (38)

2017- Kamara (67)

What is probably more helpful is looking at some other numbers to see how much we should buy into ordinal vs draft round and whether we should consider Carter as a guy who beat the odds or is unlikely to. 

 

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1. Judging Carter, first I will look at his scores from the Rotounderworld Breakout Finder (model designed to incorporate several factors to predict changes a RB ever posts I believe an RB2 season or better)

Carter scored a 28.9, 4th highest in this class. RBs with themost similar scores are:

-  Zach Moss, Jon Dwyer, Ahmad Bradshaw, Jordan Todman, Alexander Mattison, Jordan Howard, Daniel Thomas, Austin Ekeler, Brian Hill, Trayveon Williams, Zac Stacy and Chase Edmonds. 

Plenty of total nothings in there but also some guys who delivered fantasy value for brief periods of time. Notably higher than Aaron Jones, James Robinson, Dion Lewis and Devonta Freeman. 

2. Lance Zierlein's grades have supposedly shown some predictive measure for RBs, Carter graded as a 6.21 which he rates as a good backup who could become a starter as their career goes on. If anyone knows where there is an archive of his old grades are, that would be super helpful. 

I would be glad to add more context if anyone has some historical markers we can look at. 

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

 Not sure about meaningless but it certainly does not prove anything either. However just for sake of accuracy here's the 5th RB taken: 

2021- Carter (107)

2020- Dobbins (55)

2019- Singletary (74)

2018- Ronald Jones (38)

2017- Kamara (67)

What is probably more helpful is looking at some other numbers to see how much we should buy into ordinal vs draft round and whether we should consider Carter as a guy who beat the odds or is unlikely to. 

 

His college production, measurables, style, landing spot,  and draft position seem to put him as an early-bird 2nd round pick in regular PPR leagues.  

Outside of those how do we predict his chances of out producing his fantasy draft ADP?  

 

Edited by ghostguy123
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10 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

His college production, measurables, style, landing spot,  and draft position seem to put him as an early-bird 2nd round pick in regular PPR leagues.  

Outside of those how do we predict his chances of out producing his fantasy draft ADP?  

 

See my next post. If we have models or systems that use scores for multiple years we can help decide whether he is a 4th round pick who deserves to be treated like a longshot 4th rounder or if he is a RB who slipped for some odd combination of factors and is more likely to be one of the few day 3 guys that delivers fantasy value. I am pro-Carter, just took him at 2.04 and was very pleased with it. Part of that is my thoughts on Carter/situation but also part of that is just the cliff that happens in this class after him. 

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4 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

See my next post. If we have models or systems that use scores for multiple years we can help decide whether he is a 4th round pick who deserves to be treated like a longshot 4th rounder or if he is a RB who slipped for some odd combination of factors and is more likely to be one of the few day 3 guys that delivers fantasy value. I am pro-Carter, just took him at 2.04 and was very pleased with it. Part of that is my thoughts on Carter/situation but also part of that is just the cliff that happens in this class after him. 

He did not do well in David Zach's Z score.

"Many film analysts will argue that his film tells far more than the analytics, and let’s hope they are right for his sake. His college production was mediocre. He came in with an average athleticism score and received a below-average grade from NFL.com. 

But now we get to the best part, landing on the Jets. New York was my second-best possible landing spot for a rookie back and should be thrust into an immediate starting role. However, buyer beware, as I still expect the Jets to land one of the bigger name free agent backs left remaining on the market."

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21 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Aaron Jones - 5th rounder.....I could go on. kind of a poor take

 

Survivorship bias. 

And if you can take Michael Carter in the 3rd round of rookie drafts like with Jones I would be in on him. 

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6 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

Survivorship bias. 

And if you can take Michael Carter in the 3rd round of rookie drafts like with Jones I would be in on him. 

2 different classes. You can only judge Carter based on who is being taken after him. 

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, rockaction said:

He did not do well in David Zach's Z score.

"Many film analysts will argue that his film tells far more than the analytics, and let’s hope they are right for his sake. His college production was mediocre. He came in with an average athleticism score and received a below-average grade from NFL.com. 

But now we get to the best part, landing on the Jets. New York was my second-best possible landing spot for a rookie back and should be thrust into an immediate starting role. However, buyer beware, as I still expect the Jets to land one of the bigger name free agent backs left remaining on the market."

Who are these scary FA RBs out there? Todd Gurley? 

He graded Carter to a score of 11. I am suprised he got a D from NFL.com. As I mentioned above, he had a decent score and was projected to go round 3 by Lance. Last year the closest Z scores to Carter were Zach Moss and AJ Dillon. Unfortunately we can't go back any further then that. He did these models in 16,17,18 and 19 but his scoring process and grading system was entirely different. Carter isn't going too far from where Moss and Dillon went last year (especially when we factor how much weaker this class). 

Edited by Ilov80s
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2 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Who are these scary FA RBs out there? Todd Gurley? 

He graded Carter to a score of 11. I am suprised he got a D from NFL.com. As I mentioned above, he had a decent score and was projected to go round 3 by Lance. Last year the closest Z scores to Carter were Zach Moss and AJ Dillon. Unfortunately we can't go back any further then that. He did these models in 16,17,18 and 19 but his scoring process and grading system was entirely different. Carter isn't going too far from where Moss and Dillon went last year (especially when we factor how much weaker this class). 

I agree, just posting.

Dillon went in the second, though.

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36 minutes ago, rockaction said:

He did not do well in David Zach's Z score.

"... I still expect the Jets to land one of the bigger name free agent backs left remaining on the market."

He does? I don’t expect that at all. I suppose maybe they go after a vet but I think it’d be a cheap guy.

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25 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

He does? I don’t expect that at all. I suppose maybe they go after a vet but I think it’d be a cheap guy.

Yeah, that was my first thought, is that he's wrong. Don't forget, it's more of a numbers/regression score. As soon as he gets subjective about it, it seems to fail.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, rockaction said:

I agree, just posting.

Dillon went in the second, though.

Oh I know and I appreciate the addition. You are right Dillon went in the 2nd. My whole premise is try to investigate this idea of how the devaluation of RBs potentially alter the draft capital approach. How do we compare a RB five years ago who might have been the 7th RB taken but was taken in 2nd round with a player next year who the 4th RB taken but is taken in the 3rd round? Or the idea of "are all day 3 RBs created equal?" I think we have to assume they aren't. Just like we know draft capital is really important for WRs but not all 1st and 2nd round WRs are equal (see Tutu and Toney and Eskridge ADP).  What can we use to compare across draft classes to try and ID the late round RBs that are worth more than draft capital suggests? Obviously situation is one thing but those can change so quickly. I wish the Z scores had a deeper database so we could see where historically Carter would have fallen in it. The fact he lines up with a 2nd round pick from last year seems to indicate Carter isn't your typical 4th round pick and that goes beyond a clean landing spot. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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18 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

The problem with this is people have been making this argument for 10 years now.  So if we're comparing a 4th rounder now to 4th rounders within the last 10 years that is already baked in.

Shoot I remember reading posts 5-6 years ago titled things like "there will never be a RB picked in the 1st round again".  Yet here we ware.

 

This is always a common talking point on message boards, but NFL teams continue to spend valuable draft capital on RBs, and give valuable contracts to RBs.  They continue to talk about the importance of players that have a "RB" listed next to their name on the depth chart.

The position has certainly been devalued from its heyday, but I think fantasy message boards are very out of touch with the actual NFL in terms of how much that is.

Every year boards are flooded with "xxxx team isn't going to spend a 2nd round pick on a RB with so many other holes on their team because everyone knows RBs don't really matter", and then that team goes over the top of them and spends a FIRST round pick on a RB.

Forget 4th corner or 3rd edge, there were teams this year that grabbed a 1b running back when they still needed a 1st corner or 1st edge.

There will always be RB's worth a top 50 pick. I think there were 3 this year. There will also always be NFL teams that make dumb decisions. I think there were 2 such cases involving RB this year. And it isn't because the RB they selected isn't any good. None of this is relevant to Michael Carter though. Comparing him to 3rd and 4th round RB's in years prior (or later round hits) would yield a more meaningful result.

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2 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

 Not sure about meaningless but it certainly does not prove anything either. However just for sake of accuracy here's the 5th RB taken: 

2021- Carter (107)

2020- Dobbins (55)

2019- Singletary (74)

2018- Ronald Jones (38)

2017- Kamara (67)

What is probably more helpful is looking at some other numbers to see how much we should buy into ordinal vs draft round and whether we should consider Carter as a guy who beat the odds or is unlikely to. 

 

oops, thank you

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

2 different classes. You can only judge Carter based on who is being taken after him. 

I wasn't judging him by it, I was saying his price is too high in most drafts.  He should not go before any of the WRs in the range he is being taken (Marshall, Bateman, Moores). 

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4 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

I wasn't judging him by it, I was saying his price is too high in most drafts.  He should not go before any of the WRs in the range he is being taken (Marshall, Bateman, Moores). 

Ok, that is fair. Seems like the range once you get past Smith and Waddle is all over the place. I got Carter today at 2.4 and I considered him the end of a pretty big cliff. The WRs you mentioned plus the big 3 QBs and Sermon had all gone. That seems like the right spot for Carter. 

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Ok, that is fair. Seems like the range once you get past Smith and Waddle is all over the place. I got Carter today at 2.4 and I considered him the end of a pretty big cliff. The WRs you mentioned plus the big 3 QBs and Sermon had all gone. That seems like the right spot for Carter. 

Yep I think that's the spot.  I still have Dyami Brown and Toney over him even though I don't even like Toney.  You can get Brown much later usually too. 

I'm seeing him go before one of Sermon and those 4 WRs in almost every draft. 

Edited by kittenmittens
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33 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Ok, that is fair. Seems like the range once you get past Smith and Waddle is all over the place. I got Carter today at 2.4 and I considered him the end of a pretty big cliff. The WRs you mentioned plus the big 3 QBs and Sermon had all gone. That seems like the right spot for Carter. 

I'd pick Wilson first, but otherwise - same.

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Posted (edited)

Sometimes a bad class is just a bad class. Forcing a bad RB into the top of the 2nd/into the first over Bateman, Marshall, the Moore’s maybe even Waddle or Smith is going to lead to a lot of heartbreak this season. Don’t do it. Nothing against Carter but the risk/reward is dumb. For what? Poor man’s Devonte Freeman? No thanks. 

Edited by Iceman03
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23 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

1. Judging Carter, first I will look at his scores from the Rotounderworld Breakout Finder (model designed to incorporate several factors to predict changes a RB ever posts I believe an RB2 season or better)

Carter scored a 28.9, 4th highest in this class. RBs with themost similar scores are:

-  Zach Moss, Jon Dwyer, Ahmad Bradshaw, Jordan Todman, Alexander Mattison, Jordan Howard, Daniel Thomas, Austin Ekeler, Brian Hill, Trayveon Williams, Zac Stacy and Chase Edmonds. 

Plenty of total nothings in there but also some guys who delivered fantasy value for brief periods of time. Notably higher than Aaron Jones, James Robinson, Dion Lewis and Devonta Freeman. 

2. Lance Zierlein's grades have supposedly shown some predictive measure for RBs, Carter graded as a 6.21 which he rates as a good backup who could become a starter as their career goes on. If anyone knows where there is an archive of his old grades are, that would be super helpful. 

I would be glad to add more context if anyone has some historical markers we can look at. 

Ok, I found where Lance's past draft grades were available. The following players graded out within 0.01 of Carter: 

Darrell Henderson, Nick Chubb, Paul Perkins, Kenneth Dixon,Devonta Booker, Alex Collins, TJ Yeldon, Tre Mason, Kadeem Carey, Darrynton Evans, Damien Harris. 

Based on this, his Breakout Score and him being the 5th RB taken, I feel comfortable leaning towards Carter being the kind of 4th round RB worth betting on. In most years past, he is a 3rd round RB. 

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