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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Michael Carter, Jets


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7 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

Sometimes a bad class is just a bad class. Forcing a bad RB into the top of the 2nd/into the first over Bateman, Marshall, the Moore’s maybe even Waddle or Smith is going to lead to a lot of heartbreak this season. Don’t do it. Nothing against Carter but the risk/reward is dumb. For what? Poor man’s Devonte Freeman? No thanks. 

I'd consider a poor man's Devonta Freeman (which seems like a serviceable RB2/flex) for a few years out of Carter. :shrug: 

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2 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

Ok, I found where Lance's past draft grades were available. The following players graded out within 0.01 of Carter: 

Darrell Henderson, Nick Chubb, Paul Perkins, Kenneth Dixon,Devonta Booker, Alex Collins, TJ Yeldon, Tre Mason, Kadeem Carey, Darrynton Evans, Damien Harris. 

Based on this, his Breakout Score and him being the 5th RB taken, I feel comfortable leaning towards Carter being the kind of 4th round RB worth betting on. In most years past, he is a 3rd round RB. 

And if you believe Joe Douglass, and fair if you don't, they'd have taken him at pick 66 if they did not trade the pick.

 

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Shawnky said:

There’s opportunity for him to make a splash in that backfield looking at the roster.  Well worth an early 2nd round rookie pick. 

The opportunity is meddling #2 at best and I see the Jets bringing in a 3 down back type in 2022 with extra resources they already own. In fact they could be the Miami of next years draft with an early 1st  to trade down with QB in place and while not nearly as good of QB draft class it seems heavy at top of the draft. Jets draft their Harris, Etienne or Williams to help out Wilson more. This team has some talent but will have growing pains and I see a top 5 pick in 2022 and they still have Seattle’s 1st. 
 

So you are drafting to trade but does a meddling #2 get you back the draft capital you spent this year on the guy. I am thinking not. 

Edited by Crippler
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3 hours ago, Crippler said:

The opportunity is meddling #2 at best and I see the Jets bringing in a 3 down back type in 2022 with extra resources they already own. In fact they could be the Miami of next years draft with an early 1st  to trade down with QB in place and while not nearly as good of QB draft class it seems heavy at top of the draft. Jets draft their Harris, Etienne or Williams to help out Wilson more. This team has some talent but will have growing pains and I see a top 5 pick in 2022 and they still have Seattle’s 1st. 
 

I have no idea what meddling means but I don't prescribe to this "at best" stuff when the guy has not even played.

And if they are Miami in next years draft I think most Michael Carter owners will be pretty happy.

 

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9 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

He is in danger of being replaced for sure but I would be surprised if they target a 3rd down back since that's Carters area of strength (unless of course he's just bad this year)

I think the post was suggesting they might bring in a back with a *three-down* skill set, like a bellcow type, rather than a *third-down* type. Which is what many see Carter as.

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3 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I think the post was suggesting they might bring in a back with a *three-down* skill set, like a bellcow type, rather than a *third-down* type. Which is what many see Carter as.

Oh yeah, I see that. Makes more sense. 

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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

I think the post was suggesting they might bring in a back with a *three-down* skill set, like a bellcow type, rather than a *third-down* type. Which is what many see Carter as.

I doubt the Jets bring in anymore RBs this season with the exception of a cheap veteran that shakes loose when rosters cut down.

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I doubt the Jets bring in anymore RBs this season with the exception of a cheap veteran that shakes loose when rosters cut down.

They're probably going to wait until San Francisco tries to sneak one or two of their guys onto the practice squad or something like that.

I'm kidding, but I can see it.

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6 minutes ago, rockaction said:

They're probably going to wait until San Francisco tries to sneak one or two of their guys onto the practice squad or something like that.

I'm kidding, but I can see it.

Very possible if the Jets aren't really interested in Perine or Ty. 

 

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

Very possible if the Jets aren't really interested in Perine or Ty. 

 

I like Ty (I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the one splitting carries with Carter and not Coleman).

Perine is about as JAG as a JAG can be. 

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35 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I like Ty (I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the one splitting carries with Carter and not Coleman).

Perine is about as JAG as a JAG can be. 

I drafted Carter in FFPC and since I had a few extra late picks that I know I’ll have to cut prior to week 1, I grabbed Coleman and Devonta Freeman (wondering if a team like the Jets might bring him in as a vet RB to split with Carter) as cheap short term insurance. 

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44 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I like Ty (I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the one splitting carries with Carter and not Coleman).

Perine is about as JAG as a JAG can be. 

Yeah I can't say I saw much of Perine but I saw Ty because he was with Detroit as a rookie.I was really disappointed they released him. He had a lot of burst and seemed to flash the few times he got the ball. 

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Carter is a JAG too.  He and Perrine have about the same draft capital.

It's a backfield of JAGs that will share carries. 

Carter is also only 200 lbs so upside is limited to begin with. 

Best case scenario is he gets all of the passing down work, they are bad, and Wilson dumps off a lot. 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

Carter is a JAG too.  He and Perrine have about the same draft capital.

It's a backfield of JAGs that will share carries. 

Carter is also only 200 lbs so upside is limited to begin with. 

Best case scenario is he gets all of the passing down work, they are bad, and Wilson dumps off a lot. 

 

 

Maybe but he and Perrne are not comparable as college backs. Carter had such a more impressive college career. 

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14 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

Carter is a JAG too.  He and Perrine have about the same draft capital.

It's a backfield of JAGs that will share carries. 

Carter is also only 200 lbs so upside is limited to begin with. 

Best case scenario is he gets all of the passing down work, they are bad, and Wilson dumps off a lot. 

 

 

He definitely might be, but we don't know that for sure yet.  We definitely do with Perrine.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Foosball God said:

He definitely might be, but we don't know that for sure yet.  We definitely do with Perrine.

Haha we know he's not a bell cow. 

You're right though, but this is also the essence of rookie fever  at the same time. 

Edited by kittenmittens
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14 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

Maybe but he and Perrne are not comparable as college backs. Carter had such a more impressive college career. 

I'd agree with that, but undersized backs almost never translate the college workload to the NFL.  It's pretty rare.  Devonta Freeman is the ceiling probably. 

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12 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

I'd agree with that, but undersized backs almost never translate the college workload to the NFL.  It's pretty rare.  Devonta Freeman is the ceiling probably. 

Barry Sanders disagrees*

 

Not that I'm saying Carter is anywhere the same back as Sanders was.

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I doubt the Jets bring in anymore RBs this season with the exception of a cheap veteran that shakes loose when rosters cut down.

I have no idea whatsoever. If you homers figure out any more RB moves there let us know. I think the post I was referencing was saying in the 2022 draft they might go a different direction, not just that they might do something with a vet this year (I don't even know who that would be). As a potential Carter owner I'm not sure I care enough to stop me from taking him if I need a RB. If you're right and they don't bring anyone else in this year then there is a ton of upside for Carter in 2021 beyond what is already there for a floor considering his talent and draft capital. He is going to have a FF relevant role this year, but there is upside for more. 

Even if I thought for sure they'd bring in some stud in 2022 I'd still ride him in 2021 and try to flip. My biggest question is if they do give the ball predominantly to some other back on early downs, who would it be? Coleman, Perine? Really? If so those guys are probably too cheap right now. Someone else I'm forgetting?

I would think that rather than signing a cheap veteran they would want to maybe trade for someone. Henderson, Robinson, others? Don't they still have a ton of spending room and draft capital to play with? Maybe the FA RB market will look much better next year *and* they can think about drafting someone then. IDK but in my mind Carter isn't that guy for a 3 down role. Yet it looks like he might have that chance this year. Like a rich man's Gaskin.  

ETA NM I'll just keep reading and catch up..........

Edited by barackdhouse
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I drafted him all over the place with the sole intention to move him the moment he spikes for 100 yards and a TD and starts commanding future 1st+ prices.  I typically try to trade 2nd's for future 1sts and had less success this year than normal so he's now my proxy for this tactic.

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2 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

I drafted him all over the place with the sole intention to move him the moment he spikes for 100 yards and a TD and starts commanding future 1st+ prices.  I typically try to trade 2nd's for future 1sts and had less success this year than normal so he's now my proxy for this tactic.

Love this.  Perfect strategy IMO. 

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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

I have no idea whatsoever. If you homers figure out any more RB moves there let us know. I think the post I was referencing was saying in the 2022 draft they might go a different direction, not just that they might do something with a vet this year (I don't even know who that would be). As a potential Carter owner I'm not sure I care enough to stop me from taking him if I need a RB. If you're right and they don't bring anyone else in this year then there is a ton of upside for Carter in 2021 beyond what is already there for a floor considering his talent and draft capital. He is going to have a FF relevant role this year, but there is upside for more. 

Even if I thought for sure they'd bring in some stud in 2022 I'd still ride him in 2021 and try to flip. My biggest question is if they do give the ball predominantly to some other back on early downs, who would it be? Coleman, Perine? Really? If so those guys are probably too cheap right now. Someone else I'm forgetting?

I would think that rather than signing a cheap veteran they would want to maybe trade for someone. Henderson, Robinson, others? Don't they still have a ton of spending room and draft capital to play with? Maybe the FA RB market will look much better next year *and* they can think about drafting someone then. IDK but in my mind Carter isn't that guy for a 3 down role. Yet it looks like he might have that chance this year. Like a rich man's Gaskin.  

ETA NM I'll just keep reading and catch up..........

I don't think Joe Douglas or the new (SF) offense values overspending at the RB position. I do not know for sure whether they will sign or trade for another RB, but my guess is they don't.

Right now they have Carter, Coleman, Perine, Ty Johnson and Josh Adams on the roster. I do not know the pecking order or rotation at this point. 

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5 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

I'd agree with that, but undersized backs almost never translate the college workload to the NFL.  It's pretty rare.  Devonta Freeman is the ceiling probably. 

For sure but Devonta Freeman ceiling is pretty awesome. I mean he was the number 1 overall RB in fantasy for a season. Aaron Jones-Freeman-Ekeler is kind of the best case scenario. Unlikely he hits that it's unlikely even an RB taken in the early 2nd would ever hit that. 

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On 5/12/2021 at 6:42 PM, rockaction said:

They're probably going to wait until San Francisco tries to sneak one or two of their guys onto the practice squad or something like that.

I'm kidding, but I can see it.

They did pick up a RB from SF on waivers today.

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30 minutes ago, menobrown said:

They did pick up a RB from SF on waivers today.

No kidding. Well then. I'm seeing that it's Austin Walter. I'm a bit disappointed (was hoping SF had released Gallman or Hasty or something like that, but why would they do that?) but not surprised the Jets went with a special teamer/running back that'll know the system. I was thinking they'll be poaching guys from the SF practice squad later on in the year, though I'm not entirely sure how those rules are going to be with COVID this year again.

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I'm seeing Carter ranked around RB39 in redraft. So if you're drafting him based on his opportunity for immediate production, that's the level of immediate production that people who are doing drafts/rankings/projections for this year are expecting.

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11 hours ago, ZWK said:

I'm seeing Carter ranked around RB39 in redraft. So if you're drafting him based on his opportunity for immediate production, that's the level of immediate production that people who are doing drafts/rankings/projections for this year are expecting.

It's very early in the redraft process and I would expect the rankings to be a tad bit more conservative at this point - some one will likely emerge from their crowded depth chart during the course of the offseason and if it's Carter, I'd expect him to move up. With that said RB3 numbers is likely the best one could hope for even if Carter emerges as the leader of the committee.

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23 hours ago, ZWK said:

I'm seeing Carter ranked around RB39 in redraft. So if you're drafting him based on his opportunity for immediate production, that's the level of immediate production that people who are doing drafts/rankings/projections for this year are expecting.

Dobbins and Swift were going around RB30 last year. If you are looking for opportunity or a quick flip, you don't need Carter to finish as a top 15 RB overall, you need him to end the season with the perception that he is a top 15 RB moving forward. 

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41 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Dobbins and Swift were going around RB30 last year. If you are looking for opportunity or a quick flip, you don't need Carter to finish as a top 15 RB overall, you need him to end the season with the perception that he is a top 15 RB moving forward. 

I think he'd have to blow up for most people to believe this. As a 4th round pick he's going to be viewed as replaceable unless he does something really terrific. 

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13 minutes ago, foxco said:

I think he'd have to blow up for most people to believe this. As a 4th round pick he's going to be viewed as replaceable unless he does something really terrific. 

You are viewing it all wrong. Don't think of him as a 4th round pick RB, think of him as the RB4 of the 2021 draft class, think of him as a RB with an ADP of 2.03 in rookie drafts. 

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

You are viewing it all wrong. Don't think of him as a 4th round pick RB, think of him as the RB4 of the 2021 draft class, think of him as a RB with an ADP of 2.03 in rookie drafts. 

History shows draft capital matters for RBs.  Sure there are outliers, but I would bet over 95% of the time RBs drafted 4th round or later don’t amount to much for fantasy.

Edited by JohnnyU
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Just now, JohnnyU said:

History shows draft capital matters for RBs.  Sure there are outliers, but I would bet over 95% of the time RBs drafted 4th round or later don’t amount to much.

I get that, but the draft class is weak. I am not advocating taking him over Elijah Moore or Trey Sermon. I am taking him because  besides the draft capital, he had a pretty solid profile as I've outlined a bunch in this thread. He also has a clear path to touches. I am looking for him to capitalize on his opportunity this year and flip him because history says he will get replaced sooner rather than later. I don't expect him to step in from day 1 and be an RB2. What I am hoping is that down the stretch he rises above Coleman, Perine and Ty Johnson to finish strong. If he closes the season with 5 or 6 strong games there may be people in dynasty who are excited about him moving forward. RB thirst is real, especially with how thin the class was this year. 

Now FoxCo doesn't think people will be interested in him because he was a 4th round pick. He's right that some will still see that draft capital and scoff at Carter. However, I think most leagues have a few players who were excited about him as a prospect and will remember that. While the 4th round capital is a tough sell, it would be really easy to put the positive spin of 4th RB in the class and his early 2nd round rookie ADP. 

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15 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

While the 4th round capital is a tough sell, it would be really easy to put the positive spin of 4th RB in the class and his early 2nd round rookie ADP. 

People have been drafting 4th round RBs or later in the early 2nd round of start 1QB leagues for years, but that hasn’t necessarily been a good thing.

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

People have been drafting 4th round RBs or later in the early 2nd round of start 1QB leagues for years, but that hasn’t necessarily been a good thing.

I haven't looked at the data but I would think it's pretty rare that the RB4 of a class goes 2.3-2.5 in ADP. 

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31 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

History shows draft capital matters for RBs.  Sure there are outliers, but I would bet over 95% of the time RBs drafted 4th round or later don’t amount to much for fantasy.

This point makes a lot of sense and if you made it a personal rule (I rarely draft 4th+ round WRs, but love 2nd-3rd round WRs), I would not blame you. In this case, I am willing to consider that:

1. The GM said he would have taken Carter at 66 had they not traded the pick. So, the Jets had him valued as a 2nd rounder.

2. The depth chart above/around him is inarguably terrible. Tevin Coleman is garbage and he is the literal top-of-the-heap. 

3. He was pick 107, the 2nd pick of round four. If the Jets had traded up 4 spots into round three, would Carter now be "acceptable" to pick, since he was a 3rd rounder and 3rd round RBs have higher success rates? While true, seems a tad silly to be so cut-and-dried on this. Just like any rule, when you make an exception, when do you stop?

4. He averaged 8 yards per carry in 2020 and 6.6 in his career.

5. Played opposite another NFL-caliber RB (Javonte Williams) yet still commanded exactly 50% of the touches.

But if you consider all factors, and if you had to bet on who had the most PPR points at RB on the Jets in 2021, what are Carter's odds? Is he the fav? If not, what about in 2022? Beyond the "2022 three-down-back-top-50 pick concept", who beats out Carter going forward? And why would the GM invest a top 50 pick in RB in 2022 when he though he got one in 2021? It is up to Carter to fail here. Doubtful that he does and his price is cheap considering all of the above, IMO.

 

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7 hours ago, Leroy's Aces said:

This point makes a lot of sense and if you made it a personal rule (I rarely draft 4th+ round WRs, but love 2nd-3rd round WRs), I would not blame you. In this case, I am willing to consider that:

1. The GM said he would have taken Carter at 66 had they not traded the pick. So, the Jets had him valued as a 2nd rounder.

2. The depth chart above/around him is inarguably terrible. Tevin Coleman is garbage and he is the literal top-of-the-heap. 

3. He was pick 107, the 2nd pick of round four. If the Jets had traded up 4 spots into round three, would Carter now be "acceptable" to pick, since he was a 3rd rounder and 3rd round RBs have higher success rates? While true, seems a tad silly to be so cut-and-dried on this. Just like any rule, when you make an exception, when do you stop?

4. He averaged 8 yards per carry in 2020 and 6.6 in his career.

5. Played opposite another NFL-caliber RB (Javonte Williams) yet still commanded exactly 50% of the touches.

But if you consider all factors, and if you had to bet on who had the most PPR points at RB on the Jets in 2021, what are Carter's odds? Is he the fav? If not, what about in 2022? Beyond the "2022 three-down-back-top-50 pick concept", who beats out Carter going forward? And why would the GM invest a top 50 pick in RB in 2022 when he though he got one in 2021? It is up to Carter to fail here. Doubtful that he does and his price is cheap considering all of the above, IMO.

 

I like Carter and considered him a 3 rd talent.  Good to hear the Jets would have used the earlier pick had they not traded it and valued him as a 2nd round pick.  There’s your outlier possibly.

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12 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I haven't looked at the data but I would think it's pretty rare that the RB4 of a class goes 2.3-2.5 in ADP. 

He went as RB5 off the board. Sermon went just a little earlier. I don't think it diminishes any point being made here. RB4 keeps getting thrown around in here but he was RB5. 

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Posted (edited)

I do actually think BMI means a *little* bit for RBs. Here is a list of RBs with a smaller BMI than Carter's 30.6:

Bell, Zeke, CMC, Gurley, Forte, Shady, David Johnson, ADP, Demarco Murray, Lynch

That's if I call him exactly 5'8" 201. I'm not saying it means a ton but I do think he has the requisite size to play a big role.

I think he looks pretty darned good, too. I like Javonte Williams but he has a lot of haters that talk about how a lot of his TDs were setup after Carter did most of the dirty work between the 20s. So I still think there is room for some real upside here. I absolutely do buy into the idea that he should be thought of as the RB5 of the class and to not take his draft position (in the 4th) quite so seriously. Yet with the notion the Jets had him even higher, that also says a lot. Sure it's a weak class but there just isn't any real reason to think they're not going to get him involved a lot. As said above, it will be up to him to do something with it. 


 

Edited by barackdhouse
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52 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

He went as RB5 off the board. Sermon went just a little earlier. I don't think it diminishes any point being made here. RB4 keeps getting thrown around in here but he was RB5. 

Sorry meant RB5, thanks. 

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I think the opportunity could be really good this year.  He could be an electric guy this year with lots of touches out in space that breaks off several big plays.  

I worry they'll still bring in another talented back via the draft or free agency next season and he'll be splitting the workload moreso than what we're thinking this season.  

I'm not out on him.  I'd love to get shares of him.  But I think you're probably having to draft late 1st/early 2nd.  And the conundrum becomes which WR's am I comfortable taking him over.   I Think generally speaking after the top/early drafted backs--I'd rather have the WR that I think will be a usable fantasy asset than the RB that I'm hoping might hold onto a role.

I think back to the 2019 rookie drafts.  Darrell Henderson was a 1st round lock and often went mid-1st round.  Singletary and even Darwin Thompson creeped into the 1st round of some rookie drafts.  And look at the potential.  Henderson is the hot young talented rookie brought into backup and eventually replace a broken Gurley in that McVey offense.  Singletary only has to get past old man Frank Gore.  Darwin just needs to find A ROLE in the KC offense, and all they have is a bunch of JAGs on the roster.  

By taking them, people missed out on AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, even DK Metcalf in some cases.  And don't get me wrong.  At the time, the upside of Henderson sure made a lot of sense.  There's a lot of hindsight in this post.  I freely admit that.  But can we apply the hindsight to situations like Carter?  

If Carter creeps into the late 1st, we are missing out on someone from a group of Marshall, Bateman, E Moore, even Lawrence/Fields.  If you take take Carter and he's a where Singletary/Henderson are in 2 years or splitting the workload--and Marshall is a consistent WR2--I'm not feeling so hot about that outcome.  I guess it all comes down to where you're willing to draw your line in the sand.  

 

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1 hour ago, jm192 said:

By taking them, people missed out on AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, even DK Metcalf in some cases.  And don't get me wrong.  At the time, the upside of Henderson sure made a lot of sense.  There's a lot of hindsight in this post.  I freely admit that.  But can we apply the hindsight to situations like Carter?  

If Carter creeps into the late 1st, we are missing out on someone from a group of Marshall, Bateman, E Moore, even Lawrence/Fields.  If you take take Carter and he's a where Singletary/Henderson are in 2 years or splitting the workload--and Marshall is a consistent WR2--I'm not feeling so hot about that outcome.  I guess it all comes down to where you're willing to draw your line in the sand.  

Yeah I saw Henderson go ahead of Metcalf in almost every draft. Myself included a couple times (but I took DK a bunch as well). To your point I have a couple of those WRs ahead of Carter and so far when I've been put to the test I've gone with the WR. Almost finished with 20 FFPC rookie drafts so the decision has come up a few times. And I think you're right on your take here. 

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1 hour ago, jm192 said:

By taking them, people missed out on AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, even DK Metcalf in some cases.

This cuts both ways. By taking Ruggs, Pittman, Reagor, etc, etc people missed out on taking Gibson last year. People were taking Mike Williams and John Ross over Kamara and Hunt in most leagues.

Not many will argue your success rate taking 4th round RB's this late vs first/second WR's is going to be lower so I get what you are saying but does not mean it's the right move all the time to go WR. I'm also personally not a fan of taking RB's drafted his low in round one but as Leroy's Aces pointed out in his excellent post I think his situation is a lot more nuanced then just lumping him in with all other 4th or later drafted RB's and I think that's what to many people are doing right now.

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9 minutes ago, menobrown said:

This cuts both ways. By taking Ruggs, Pittman, Reagor, etc, etc people missed out on taking Gibson last year. People were taking Mike Williams and John Ross over Kamara and Hunt in most leagues.

Not many will argue your success rate taking 4th round RB's this late vs first/second WR's is going to be lower so I get what you are saying but does not mean it's the right move all the time to go WR. I'm also personally not a fan of taking RB's drafted his low in round one but as Leroy's Aces pointed out in his excellent post I think his situation is a lot more nuanced then just lumping him in with all other 4th or later drafted RB's and I think that's what to many people are doing right now.

Good points though I don’t think anyone really had Gibson in the same realm as Reagor or Ruggs. Gibson was a major projection considering he had barely ran the ball in college.

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Just now, Ilov80s said:

Good points though I don’t think anyone really had Gibson in the same realm as Reagor or Ruggs. Gibson was a major projection considering he had barely ran the ball in college.

I had Gibson over Ruggs but not over PIttman or Reagor who if I recall were players 9/10 for me last year. I was in leagues were Gibson was drafted over both Pittman and Ruggs but I can't recall anyone taking him over Reagor.

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22 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I had Gibson over Ruggs but not over PIttman or Reagor who if I recall were players 9/10 for me last year. I was in leagues were Gibson was drafted over both Pittman and Ruggs but I can't recall anyone taking him over Reagor.

That was definitely not the norm given ADP so props on great calls

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