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Definitely considering trading down when I’m on the clock (but it takes 2 to tango and this isn’t the most active league for trading) but want to see who’s actually there for my pick.
Aaron Jones - 5th rounder.....I could go on. kind of a poor take
4th round draft capital.
Stay away in dynasty
I gently disagree. Not many late-round guys make an impact on fantasy teams. They were going over it in one article in pretty good detail. The guys picked that late generally don't amount to much and you can tell a lot about a guy's future prospects from draft capital alone. The fourth, fifth, and sixth-round names of the past ten years or so were uninspiring, to say the least.
I've been thinking this too. I'm still not touching Carter before the mid 2nd (so I'm not getting him), but I am wondering if 2021's 4th round rb's are prior year's round 3's.
Yeah, it was in ZWK's ranking thread. He broke down the percentages of draft capital and the absolute loss of capital by all running backs over the years. Like most things mathematical, it went over my head a bit, but I gleaned the gist of the conclusion, which was that what you postulate is a bit true. Maybe more like a back-end 3rd or so?
I don't think I need to. The game's different now. Having a cost controlled 4th corner, 3rd edge, starting iOL, etc is more important than a 1b running back. Decision maker's have adjusted accordingly.
And it's reflected in the game play -- the best athletes are no longer playing the position. It's the only film I watch in sports where guys from two decades ago look much better at a position than the current guys. Except for baseball steroid guys, that is. Those guys still look like woolly mammoths. But yeah, I think the early careers and contract problems are causing a lot of guys to not necessarily play the once-glamour position of RB.
I think there has been a lot of talk about scouting uncertainty because of COVID and opt outs, etc. I think teams wanted to load up on bigger bodies and defensive players while they knew they could wait a little bit further than usual on RB. I think the change you and ZWK are talking about (and I have brought it up in past seasons myself) is real, but it is possible that COVID exacerbated it. That is just conjecture because most people agree the RB class sucked after the top few. But it does make me wonder about some of those later names. Carter in his spot seems perfectly in the sweet spot to me. I still think they would want a bigger early down back though. I didn't get him anywhere but I was targeting Sermon in nearly the same area in most drafts.
The problem with this is people have been making this argument for 10 years now. So if we're comparing a 4th rounder now to 4th rounders within the last 10 years that is already baked in.
This is always a common talking point on message boards, but NFL teams continue to spend valuable draft capital on RBs, and give valuable contracts to RBs. They continue to talk about the importance of players that have a "RB" listed next to their name on the depth chart.
Low hit rate doesn't mean zero hit rate. A 10% hit rate is fine with a late pick. A tougher sell with a late 1st/early 2nd round pick. We'd like to say a lack of competition and clearer path to touches should increase that dramatically (Carter to the Jets isn't the same as Walton to the Bengals), but it's still really bad.
while true the relative lack of depth at the rb position in this particular draft means Carter is going at like 1.09 - 2.02
The college highlights for Jones are more impressive than those for Cater. More explosive big plays for one, even if the 40 times are the same. Jones looks faster on his college highlights. Jones fell to the 5th because of size concerns, same as for Carter, and injury concerns, missing most of his 2015 season with a foot injury. Freeman might be a better comp.
I feel like this analysis would be more relevant by relative draft position.
I am not on either side of the argument here, but this is pretty meaningless.
Not sure about meaningless but it certainly does not prove anything either. However just for sake of accuracy here's the 5th RB taken:
His college production, measurables, style, landing spot, and draft position seem to put him as an early-bird 2nd round pick in regular PPR leagues.
See my next post. If we have models or systems that use scores for multiple years we can help decide whether he is a 4th round pick who deserves to be treated like a longshot 4th rounder or if he is a RB who slipped for some odd combination of factors and is more likely to be one of the few day 3 guys that delivers fantasy value. I am pro-Carter, just took him at 2.04 and was very pleased with it. Part of that is my thoughts on Carter/situation but also part of that is just the cliff that happens in this class after him.
He did not do well in David Zach's Z score.
Survivorship bias.
2 different classes. You can only judge Carter based on who is being taken after him.
Who are these scary FA RBs out there? Todd Gurley?
He does? I don’t expect that at all. I suppose maybe they go after a vet but I think it’d be a cheap guy.
Yeah, that was my first thought, is that he's wrong. Don't forget, it's more of a numbers/regression score. As soon as he gets subjective about it, it seems to fail.
Oh I know and I appreciate the addition. You are right Dillon went in the 2nd. My whole premise is try to investigate this idea of how the devaluation of RBs potentially alter the draft capital approach. How do we compare a RB five years ago who might have been the 7th RB taken but was taken in 2nd round with a player next year who the 4th RB taken but is taken in the 3rd round? Or the idea of "are all day 3 RBs created equal?" I think we have to assume they aren't. Just like we know draft capital is really important for WRs but not all 1st and 2nd round WRs are equal (see Tutu and Toney and Eskridge ADP). What can we use to compare across draft classes to try and ID the late round RBs that are worth more than draft capital suggests? Obviously situation is one thing but those can change so quickly. I wish the Z scores had a deeper database so we could see where historically Carter would have fallen in it. The fact he lines up with a 2nd round pick from last year seems to indicate Carter isn't your typical 4th round pick and that goes beyond a clean landing spot.
There will always be RB's worth a top 50 pick. I think there were 3 this year. There will also always be NFL teams that make dumb decisions. I think there were 2 such cases involving RB this year. And it isn't because the RB they selected isn't any good. None of this is relevant to Michael Carter though. Comparing him to 3rd and 4th round RB's in years prior (or later round hits) would yield a more meaningful result.
I wasn't judging him by it, I was saying his price is too high in most drafts. He should not go before any of the WRs in the range he is being taken (Marshall, Bateman, Moores).
Ok, that is fair. Seems like the range once you get past Smith and Waddle is all over the place. I got Carter today at 2.4 and I considered him the end of a pretty big cliff. The WRs you mentioned plus the big 3 QBs and Sermon had all gone. That seems like the right spot for Carter.
Yep I think that's the spot. I still have Dyami Brown and Toney over him even though I don't even like Toney. You can get Brown much later usually too.
Ok, I found where Lance's past draft grades were available. The following players graded out within 0.01 of Carter:
