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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions impressing as rookie in camp


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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Sure but NFL wise that leaves a pretty low bar to clear 

IMHO, WR is the deepest position in the NFL.  WR are given enough advantages in the rules, you can have good success without being an elite athlete or require elite size.  A lot of the WR who are considered top WR are there more because of opportunity than talent.  You put three decent WR in Green Bay, and Rogers is going to make one of them an elite WR in the NFL.  Edelman consistently put up big numbers because Brady trusted he would catch the ball and knew where he was going to be at.  Once we get three or four games into the season, a couple of these guys will step up and be the guys who Goff consistently looks to and throws the ball at, their numbers will look pretty good and we will not be missing Golladay and Marvin Jones that much.. I have total confidence that St. Brown will become a very trusted and reliable target for Goff and will put up good numbers.

Edited by jon_mx
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9 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Good articles.  The first article ("The Lions lost Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. to free agency and had only replaced them with Breshad Perriman")  forgot the Lions also brought in Tyrell Williams.

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4 minutes ago, foxco said:

Just took him at 2.06, didn't think he'd be there at 3.06. Psyched to see what he can do.

That's where I took him as well. 

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24 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Yeah for redraft, makes perfect sense to be all over him. 

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Quote

Amon-Ra St. Brown lined up as a slot receiver and outside wideout during Lions rookie minicamp. 

St. Brown played from both spots during his three years at USC, excelling in the slot role as a strong, quick receiver adept at finding soft spots in the secondary. His lack of speed -- St. Brown had a 14th percentile 40 speed at his pro day -- will probably keep him locked in as a slot mainstay. Lauded for his route running ability and toughness, St. Brown was likely drafted as Detroit's Day One slot guy, though Quintez Cephus will compete for the role. St. Brown, 21, said last week that he'd play with a chip on his shoulder after being the 16th receiver off the board in the 2021 draft. "I'm never going to forget the 15 receivers that went before me in the draft," he said. In a Detroit offense that will be forced into pass-heavy game scripts in 2021, St. Brown profiles as a cheap source of targets in PPR formats. 

RELATED: 

Quintez Cephus

SOURCE: DetroitLions.com

May 17, 2021, 9:21 AM ET

 

 

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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I ended up with him in a couple of leagues.  I just hope he doesn't end up being a roster clogger.

Situation wise, couldn’t be better for him personally. Both the vets on the outside have a less developed route tree and his weakness (9 route) is their strength. Might be third on the team in targets this year behind Hock & Swift - by far the two best playmakers on a really bad team - but as the Detroit equivalent of Kupp he could flourish this year.

They’ll draft an alpha next year, and I don’t think ARSB is ever going to be a WR1. But he could def carve out a long term role for himself as a dependable possession receiver.

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57 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Situation wise, couldn’t be better for him personally. Both the vets on the outside have a less developed route tree and his weakness (9 route) is their strength. Might be third on the team in targets this year behind Hock & Swift - by far the two best playmakers on a really bad team - but as the Detroit equivalent of Kupp he could flourish this year.

They’ll draft an alpha next year, and I don’t think ARSB is ever going to be a WR1. But he could def carve out a long term role for himself as a dependable possession receiver.

Dependable possession receiver as in steady, solid PPR guy each year or real life for the Lions? Can he be Kupp or Edelman-ish for an owner's team?

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15 minutes ago, Shutout said:

Dependable possession receiver as in steady, solid PPR guy each year or real life for the Lions? Can he be Kupp or Edelman-ish for an owner's team?

Kupp/Edelman might be a bit high. Maybe more like Crowder is a realistic outcome.

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19 minutes ago, Shutout said:

Dependable possession receiver as in steady, solid PPR guy each year or real life for the Lions? Can he be Kupp or Edelman-ish for an owner's team?

I know he was not picked high but I thought he was a perfect real life fit due to landing on team in need of slot and wanting to become a more physical team and they got a my opinion the most physical slot WR in the draft.

In fantasy I think a Kupp like rookie season is in the cards, 60-70/800-900 type of season. Like Kupp he enters as a very refined player with Goff at QB on team without much weapons and likely trailing a lot. I'm far less confident his game ascends to 90+ catch levels that Kupp reached.

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9 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Kupp/Edelman might be a bit high. Maybe more like Crowder is a realistic outcome.

Yeah, I don't follow from a fantasy start doing. Like I usedto,.  It's harder for me to draw a better comp.  Guess I was just thinking I could see him as a highly Target guy similar to how they were used.  But probably actually catching that many balls and that yardage and TD production would be a stretch...unless he's just that good.  Who knows?  

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Just now, Shutout said:

Yeah, I don't follow from a fantasy standpoint Like I used to,.  It's harder for me to draw a better comp.  Guess I was just thinking I could see him as a highly Targeted guy similar to how they were used.  But probably actually catching that many balls and that yardage and TD production would be a stretch...unless he's just that good.  Who knows?  

 

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3 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I know he was not picked high but I thought he was a perfect real life fit due to landing on team in need of slot and wanting to become a more physical team and they got a my opinion the most physical slot WR in the draft.

In fantasy I think a Kupp like rookie season is in the cards, 60-70/800-900 type of season. Like Kupp he enters as a very refined player with Goff at QB on team without much weapons and likely trailing a lot. I'm far less confident his game ascends to 90+ catch levels that Kupp reached.

Good point on his toughness. That is one thing you don't see a measureable stat on but definitely is a real factor.  

I am not into fantasy anymore.  I just like the conversation and speculation so I don't have a dog in the right but for some reason he gives me an emmanuel Sanders type vibe where he might never be a 90 catch guy for several consecutive years but I see him being a guy that goes 9/160/2 a few times here or there and helps a FF team, especially with the possibility of a lot of garbage time catch-up ball to be played. 

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Kupp/Edelman might be a bit high. Maybe more like Crowder is a realistic outcome.

I think 70-800-6 is very realistic.  He realistically should be Goff's most targeted WR, and for stats/fantasy that translates into solid numbers.  I really think the Lions offense is going to be more effective than it has been in years because they will finally be a team who can run. This team will be far better than it was last year especially on the defensive side.  

Edited by jon_mx
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53 minutes ago, Shutout said:

Good point on his toughness. That is one thing you don't see a measureable stat on but definitely is a real factor.  

I am not into fantasy anymore.  I just like the conversation and speculation so I don't have a dog in the right but for some reason he gives me an emmanuel Sanders type vibe where he might never be a 90 catch guy for several consecutive years but I see him being a guy that goes 9/160/2 a few times here or there and helps a FF team, especially with the possibility of a lot of garbage time catch-up ball to be played. 

Probably more like 9-83-1, he doesn’t have a great top gear and I don’t think his YAC will be anything special.

But he does have some good qualities. Lot of breadth to his release techniques, not long but very strong hands. Bulldog on 50/50 balls. Knows how to sell a fake and get the defenders hips turned before he makes his break, works back to the ball and he’s a hand catcher. Likes to block, varying reports on how effective he is, but he’s def a football player.

Speaks 3 languages, excellent student, one brother (ESB) has been an NFL dud, third at Stanford doesn’t look like a prospect. He’s the best of the three kids and his dad (not quite as  overbearing as Ball & def not a Marinovich type) has been pushing him his whole life (& backed off once they left the nest.)

____________

Right now his redraft ADP is around 215/WR93 (roughly 40-440-0 in full PPR), which is way off IMO. 75-850-4 would have been WR34 last year, and that’s where I see him. Guy you draft in the 15th-18th round as a WR6/7 and he ends up being WR3/Flex. No league winner but solid piece of the puzzle and practically free.

 

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1 hour ago, Shutout said:

 

He’s in the realm of Cupp and Edelman but those are also 2 of the best slot WRs of the last decade as well as guys who ended up in great situations. Cupp is probably best case scenario for ARSB.

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Probably more like 9-83-1, he doesn’t have a great top gear and I don’t think his YAC will be anything special.

But he does have some good qualities. Lot of breadth to his release techniques, not long but very strong hands. Bulldog on 50/50 balls. Knows how to sell a fake and get the defenders hips turned before he makes his break, works back to the ball and he’s a hand catcher. Likes to block, varying reports on how effective he is, but he’s def a football player.

Speaks 3 languages, excellent student, one brother (ESB) has been an NFL dud, third at Stanford doesn’t look like a prospect. He’s the best of the three kids and his dad (not quite as  overbearing as Ball & def not a Marinovich type) has been pushing him his whole life (& backed off once they left the nest.)

____________

Right now his redraft ADP is around 215/WR93 (roughly 40-440-0 in full PPR), which is way off IMO. 75-850-4 would have been WR34 last year, and that’s where I see him. Guy you draft in the 15th-18th round as a WR6/7 and he ends up being WR3/Flex. No league winner but solid piece of the puzzle and practically free.

 

Don't underestimate his running ability.  He is both tough and allusive with great awareness of defenders.  He had a rushing touchdown in 2019 which was not an end around.  He lined up in the backfield, found a hole, made a cut which avoided the linebacker and took it in from about 35 yards.  He can be a Golden Tate type with tough yardage after the catch.  

Eta...I found a video of the run, it is at the 1:00 mark.  Interestingly they compare him to Golden Tate also..  

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For the sake of making sure this discussion doesn't leave anything out, the Lions, to the best of my knowledge, have 11-12 WR on the Roster right now that are worthy of having their names listed in the MFL player database for drafting, or here on the FBG's depth chart. Included are several guys that are likely duds.

The 2 most notable veteran names, Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman are likely going to be the starting outside WR's unless they get hurt, or the Lions add another noteworthy outside guy.

St. Brown is a slot guy, through and through, so it's not like he's directly competing with them for PT, which works in his favor. He will, however, be competing with Quintez Cephus, also a Day 3 pick (2020, ARStB went 4th Rd, 2021). Cephus had a monster 2019 at Wisconsin, coming off a missed 2018 due to sexual misconduct allegations he was battling at the time. I read plenty that even though those allegations were over a year old, they were still going to impact his draft position, potentially knocking him out of Day 2. IIRC the highest projected Round I saw him going in, in 2020, was Round 3 (Day 2). I read some stuff which regarded the Lions getting Cephus in the 5th as a value pick by 2020 season's end.

He will also be competing with Geronimo Allison, who signed with the Lions in 2020, pre-draft, on a 1/1M prove-it deal, and then took the C19 opt-out, because his wife had just had a baby when the whole C19 mess was becoming a thing. Allison can play both inside and outside, but I've read analysts who feel like his best position is big slot, and that the Lions signed him to play that role with Golladay/Jones on the outside for 2020...so he was their initial plan there, and they got a great look at him, while he played for the Packers from 2016-2019 in the NFCN. Allison's contract doesn't really effect the Lions, cap wise, so he's both easy to cut or keep, and he has no draft capital whatsoever, being a post-draft UFA signing by the Packers, but he's an NFL player who overcame tremendous odds as a UDFA to make a roster and be a key contributor for a Team known for selecting and developing WR talent. He's also a very good run blocker, both willing and effective, and the Lions certainly look to be built around the run.

I'm sure Cephus and Allison aren't scaring many off of drafting St. Brown, and that's not necessarily what I'm bringing here. I am saying he's not necessarily a lock to dominate the slot for the Lions in 2021, as his competition is roughly the same level of player as he is...but he certainly might be. So might Cephus or Allison. In 2021, there might not be much of a difference between those 3 guys, and if they're all on the Team, they might eat each other up. I do think he's a worthy dynasty stash, for the same reason (Cephus and Allison aren't scaring anyone), and he could be the primary slot guy at some point this year or in 2022.

What I am saying, is, if you like the guy's long term outlook, and don't wind up being able to get him in your rookie draft, a buying opportunity may present itself. If Cephus and Allison give the fight I think they might be able to give him this summer, he might be able to be acquired from someone who is discouraged enough initially to move on.

I don't have anything against the kid, I just think he's a typical Day 3 guy, competing with guys similar to him, and I don't think the 2021 role is as wide open as many folks in here apparently think it is. YMMV.

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5 hours ago, nittanylion said:

For the sake of making sure this discussion doesn't leave anything out, the Lions, to the best of my knowledge, have 11-12 WR on the Roster right now that are worthy of having their names listed in the MFL player database for drafting, or here on the FBG's depth chart. Included are several guys that are likely duds.

The 2 most notable veteran names, Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman are likely going to be the starting outside WR's unless they get hurt, or the Lions add another noteworthy outside guy.

St. Brown is a slot guy, through and through, so it's not like he's directly competing with them for PT, which works in his favor. He will, however, be competing with Quintez Cephus, also a Day 3 pick (2020, ARStB went 4th Rd, 2021). Cephus had a monster 2019 at Wisconsin, coming off a missed 2018 due to sexual misconduct allegations he was battling at the time. I read plenty that even though those allegations were over a year old, they were still going to impact his draft position, potentially knocking him out of Day 2. IIRC the highest projected Round I saw him going in, in 2020, was Round 3 (Day 2). I read some stuff which regarded the Lions getting Cephus in the 5th as a value pick by 2020 season's end.

He will also be competing with Geronimo Allison, who signed with the Lions in 2020, pre-draft, on a 1/1M prove-it deal, and then took the C19 opt-out, because his wife had just had a baby when the whole C19 mess was becoming a thing. Allison can play both inside and outside, but I've read analysts who feel like his best position is big slot, and that the Lions signed him to play that role with Golladay/Jones on the outside for 2020...so he was their initial plan there, and they got a great look at him, while he played for the Packers from 2016-2019 in the NFCN. Allison's contract doesn't really effect the Lions, cap wise, so he's both easy to cut or keep, and he has no draft capital whatsoever, being a post-draft UFA signing by the Packers, but he's an NFL player who overcame tremendous odds as a UDFA to make a roster and be a key contributor for a Team known for selecting and developing WR talent. He's also a very good run blocker, both willing and effective, and the Lions certainly look to be built around the run.

I'm sure Cephus and Allison aren't scaring many off of drafting St. Brown, and that's not necessarily what I'm bringing here. I am saying he's not necessarily a lock to dominate the slot for the Lions in 2021, as his competition is roughly the same level of player as he is...but he certainly might be. So might Cephus or Allison. In 2021, there might not be much of a difference between those 3 guys, and if they're all on the Team, they might eat each other up. I do think he's a worthy dynasty stash, for the same reason (Cephus and Allison aren't scaring anyone), and he could be the primary slot guy at some point this year or in 2022.

What I am saying, is, if you like the guy's long term outlook, and don't wind up being able to get him in your rookie draft, a buying opportunity may present itself. If Cephus and Allison give the fight I think they might be able to give him this summer, he might be able to be acquired from someone who is discouraged enough initially to move on.

I don't have anything against the kid, I just think he's a typical Day 3 guy, competing with guys similar to him, and I don't think the 2021 role is as wide open as many folks in here apparently think it is. YMMV.

Good points.  I always forget about Geronimo.  The Lions also have three of the better UDFA's at WR.   There will be real competition in camp.  The Lions won't have that elite WR, but I don't see the position as a glaring weakness either.  I really think the WR position is the deepest position in the NFL and easiest to fill with good talent. 

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11 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

Good points.  I always forget about Geronimo.  The Lions also have three of the better UDFA's at WR.   There will be real competition in camp.  The Lions won't have that elite WR, but I don't see the position as a glaring weakness either.  I really think the WR position is the deepest position in the NFL and easiest to fill with good talent. 

It's relatively easy to fill out a roster with ordinary wide receivers that opposing defenses don't need to scheme against.

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6 hours ago, jon_mx said:

I don't see the position as a glaring weakness either.

If you find a positional ranking that doesn't list the Detroit Lions WR group as #32, please post a link.

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12 hours ago, nittanylion said:

For the sake of making sure this discussion doesn't leave anything out, the Lions, to the best of my knowledge, have 11-12 WR on the Roster right now that are worthy of having their names listed in the MFL player database for drafting, or here on the FBG's depth chart. Included are several guys that are likely duds.

The 2 most notable veteran names, Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman are likely going to be the starting outside WR's unless they get hurt, or the Lions add another noteworthy outside guy.

St. Brown is a slot guy, through and through, so it's not like he's directly competing with them for PT, which works in his favor. He will, however, be competing with Quintez Cephus, also a Day 3 pick (2020, ARStB went 4th Rd, 2021). Cephus had a monster 2019 at Wisconsin, coming off a missed 2018 due to sexual misconduct allegations he was battling at the time. I read plenty that even though those allegations were over a year old, they were still going to impact his draft position, potentially knocking him out of Day 2. IIRC the highest projected Round I saw him going in, in 2020, was Round 3 (Day 2). I read some stuff which regarded the Lions getting Cephus in the 5th as a value pick by 2020 season's end.

He will also be competing with Geronimo Allison, who signed with the Lions in 2020, pre-draft, on a 1/1M prove-it deal, and then took the C19 opt-out, because his wife had just had a baby when the whole C19 mess was becoming a thing. Allison can play both inside and outside, but I've read analysts who feel like his best position is big slot, and that the Lions signed him to play that role with Golladay/Jones on the outside for 2020...so he was their initial plan there, and they got a great look at him, while he played for the Packers from 2016-2019 in the NFCN. Allison's contract doesn't really effect the Lions, cap wise, so he's both easy to cut or keep, and he has no draft capital whatsoever, being a post-draft UFA signing by the Packers, but he's an NFL player who overcame tremendous odds as a UDFA to make a roster and be a key contributor for a Team known for selecting and developing WR talent. He's also a very good run blocker, both willing and effective, and the Lions certainly look to be built around the run.

I'm sure Cephus and Allison aren't scaring many off of drafting St. Brown, and that's not necessarily what I'm bringing here. I am saying he's not necessarily a lock to dominate the slot for the Lions in 2021, as his competition is roughly the same level of player as he is...but he certainly might be. So might Cephus or Allison. In 2021, there might not be much of a difference between those 3 guys, and if they're all on the Team, they might eat each other up. I do think he's a worthy dynasty stash, for the same reason (Cephus and Allison aren't scaring anyone), and he could be the primary slot guy at some point this year or in 2022.

What I am saying, is, if you like the guy's long term outlook, and don't wind up being able to get him in your rookie draft, a buying opportunity may present itself. If Cephus and Allison give the fight I think they might be able to give him this summer, he might be able to be acquired from someone who is discouraged enough initially to move on.

I don't have anything against the kid, I just think he's a typical Day 3 guy, competing with guys similar to him, and I don't think the 2021 role is as wide open as many folks in here apparently think it is. YMMV.

Good points. We are talking about a Day 3 Wide Receiver, and only around 5% of those guys every post a Top 24 season. In fact, since 2010, the only Day 3 picks who became WR1s are Antonio Brown, Stefon Diggs, and Tyreek Hill. FTR I don't think ARSB is a future Pro Bowler, but let's talk about those three exceptions for a second.

The knocks on them were body catcher (AB) from a small school, not much production after his freshman year due to injuries (SD), and character concerns (TH) - none of those apply to ARSB. That means 32 teams passed on him three times based on their talent evaluation - another 6 a fourth time. Sixteen WRs taken before him, so you can't completely ignore that (ARSB said he's not gonna forget it, which you love to hear - but man even the UDFAs are big talkers in May.)

In 12 formations, you would expect ARSB to be coming off the field - though it should be pointed out he loves to block and works hard at improving that aspect to his game, so maybe not. MCDC wants to establish the run, they've invested heavily in the O-line (3 first rounders), and cleared out Swift's path to being a three down back, parting ways with their leading rusher (ADP) and third down pass pro back (Wizzanator) while signing a capable backup (the hilarious Jamaal W) who should pose little threat to his status while sharing the load. A 7th rounder and a couple UDFAs round out the RB room. Anyway, game script is a real thing, they will be losing often, but they do have a desire to be a (relatively) run heavy offense.

In 11 formations - typically 70-74% of all downs in recent years - he should see the majority of the snaps. He hasn't been anointed the WR3 starting slot, but it's a realistic presumption he should win the job. I've watched Allison career closely and he's capable but just a guy. Quintez Cephus was also a Day 3 pick, albeit by the previous regime and 52 picks later (164 v 112), and didn't see his snap count rise until multiple injuries hit the '20 receiving corps. A lot of people think Surratt has a chance to make the team, and they did give Bryant $100K bonus, but generally UDFAs don't have much impact (Doug Baldwin, Cole Beasley and Adam Thielen say hello.)

He has a very good opportunity. But it is highly exceptional for Day 3 WR picks - even early round 4 - to become stars.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

If you find a positional ranking that doesn't list the Detroit Lions WR group as #32, please post a link.

The Patriots have consistently had the worst set of WR in the NFL, but they still won championships.  Of course Goff is not Tom Brady, but still having an effective running game, an elite TE, speed on the outside, and a good possession slot WR is a formula that works.  I think this group of WR will end up being better than a lot of those WR groups on those Patriots teams.  It is not like this team in expected to make the playoffs this year, but this will be a very competitive team and the offense will be middle of the pack.  I can see the Lions winning 8 games this year.  

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  • 2 weeks later...

couple Qs for MCDC at the end of this morning's presser on ARSB

it's day 3 of OTAs, no earth shattering revelations. but he's making a great first impression and has a seriousness and professionalism to him that sets him apart as a different kind of rookie from a preparation standpoint.

Tuesday was walk throughs, yesterday was half-speed 7-on-7s for ten reps and then then ten at full speed. today is the last day and they'll be going full speed but of course still in shorts and jerseys, no pads or full contact. 

he's doing all the right things to position himself for success. also working on special teams a lot. not much production as a PR in college but sounds like they're going to be getting him a lot of snaps in one capacity or another. still early, who knows how it plays out.

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29 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

couple Qs for MCDC at the end of this morning's presser on ARSB

it's day 3 of OTAs, no earth shattering revelations. but he's making a great first impression and has a seriousness and professionalism to him that sets him apart as a different kind of rookie from a preparation standpoint.

Tuesday was walk throughs, yesterday was half-speed 7-on-7s for ten reps and then then ten at full speed. today is the last day and they'll be going full speed but of course still in shorts and jerseys, no pads or full contact. 

he's doing all the right things to position himself for success. also working on special teams a lot. not much production as a PR in college but sounds like they're going to be getting him a lot of snaps in one capacity or another. still early, who knows how it plays out.

Thanks for the update, love hearing this.

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I like all of this though he doesn’t strike me as PR/KR type. Hopefully for the Lions sake there is a better option on the team.

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8 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I like all of this though he doesn’t strike me as PR/KR type. Hopefully for the Lions sake there is a better option on the team.

Should be Kalif Raymond’s job to lose, but doesn’t look like the former Titan will be more than WR6 on offense. Probably just trying to ensure they have a Plan B for return guy in case of injury.

Realistically, ARSB s/b a barely relevant 45-475-3 type rookie. FF wise, that was WR92 in full PPR in 2020. This site has him as consensus WR80 (45-526-2.6), with a range of 18.4-203-0.9 to 81.0-867-5.4; basically an undraftable WR6/WR7. Fair enough, the history of Day 3 WRs is the vast majority of them never turn in a Top 24 season in their career.

Couple tree things.

• He was a phenomenal recruit

• early break out

• dreamy situation for a rookie to walk into; a couple retread vets with no more history with the QB than he has

• football player first; this is an intangible but he’s the kind of player and has the makeup of a guy the new coach loves 

• bulldog mentality on 50/50 balls

• loves to block, which goes back to bullet #4

I could see MCDC/Anthony Lynn falling in love with this kid and getting him involved early and often. Might just be my natural optimism talking so take it with a grain of salt, but I think his rookie year production will surprise people.

All that said, I agree with your early assessment. The alpha isn’t on the roster yet, dynasty owners should be selling high after this year. His ceiling is WR2/WR3 IRL and I don’t think he’ll be anything more than a solid WR who is always fighting for his role.

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

Should be Kalif Raymond’s job to lose, but doesn’t look like the former Titan will be more than WR6 on offense. Probably just trying to ensure they have a Plan B for return guy in case of injury.

Realistically, ARSB s/b a barely relevant 45-475-3 type rookie. FF wise, that was WR92 in full PPR in 2020. This site has him as consensus WR80 (45-526-2.6), with a range of 18.4-203-0.9 to 81.0-867-5.4; basically an undraftable WR6/WR7. Fair enough, the history of Day 3 WRs is the vast majority of them never turn in a Top 24 season in their career.

Couple tree things.

• He was a phenomenal recruit

• early break out

• dreamy situation for a rookie to walk into; a couple retread vets with no more history with the QB than he has

• football player first; this is an intangible but he’s the kind of player and has the makeup of a guy the new coach loves 

• bulldog mentality on 50/50 balls

• loves to block, which goes back to bullet #4

I could see MCDC/Anthony Lynn falling in love with this kid and getting him involved early and often. Might just be my natural optimism talking so take it with a grain of salt, but I think his rookie year production will surprise people.

All that said, I agree with your early assessment. The alpha isn’t on the roster yet, dynasty owners should be selling high after this year. His ceiling is WR2/WR3 IRL and I don’t think he’ll be anything more than a solid WR who is always fighting for his role.

A lot of this sounds like Jarvis Landry walking into the Dolphins locker room in 2014. I didn't really see ARSB as the bully/physical football player type that Landry was in college though. Maybe I need to go back and look a bit closer (I can't say I paid him much attention after seeing his workout). 

Edited by jtd13
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18 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

A lot of this sounds like Jarvis Landry walking into the Dolphins locker room in 2014. I didn't really see ARSB as the bully/physical football player type that Landry was in college though. Maybe I need to go back and look a bit closer (I can't say I paid him much attention after seeing his workout). 

His workout was fine except for the speed. 38.5 vert, 10’7” broad. He’s got a lot of explosion and average quickness, just doesn’t have long speed.

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48 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

His workout was fine except for the speed. 38.5 vert, 10’7” broad. He’s got a lot of explosion and average quickness, just doesn’t have long speed.

He had good jumps, yeah. between 4.6-4.7 speed at under 200 lbs is a big negative though. 

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7 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

He had good jumps, yeah. between 4.6-4.7 speed at under 200 lbs is a big negative though. 

No doubt. It was a 4.61 then you can adjust or not however you wish. The initial reports all were low 4.5s so I was surprised it ended up officially at 4.61. I knew he wasn’t a burner but he didn’t seem slow either. He has a really high bench for his size as well. He’s strong and I don’t think will get bullied despite the weight.

Edited by Ilov80s
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  • 2 weeks later...
2 minutes ago, Faust said:

Different set of drills on day 3, today they were working on two-minute offense and no huddle. Encouraging bc he didn’t do much to attract any praise the first couple days.

He also got caught in a gunner drill by 39 year old LS Don Muhlbach while returning punts. The other players loved seeing the Mule as a gunner. Aw well, he’s like Plan D in the return game so whatever.

Day 3 observations: two-minute drill

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11 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

Different set of drills on day 3, today they were working on two-minute offense and no huddle. Encouraging bc he didn’t do much to attract any praise the first couple days.

He also got caught in a gunner drill by 39 year old LS Don Muhlbach while returning punts. The other players loved seeing the Mule as a gunner. Aw well, he’s like Plan D in the return game so whatever.

Day 3 observations: two-minute drill

Would be very Matt Patricia era Lions if a guy with 4.6 speed is our returner lol .But yes nice to hear some positive things from practice. Was he working with the first team for this?

Nevermind I clicked the link and saw he Goff was his QB so good to see he is getting 1st team reps. 

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Not sure why everyone thinks he's going to automatically be ahead of Cephus on the depth chart

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1 hour ago, renesauz said:

Not sure why everyone thinks he's going to automatically be ahead of Cephus on the depth chart

He’s not but he’s getting reps with the 1st team now which is a good sign. Cephus could easily be usurped.

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2 hours ago, renesauz said:

Not sure why everyone thinks he's going to automatically be ahead of Cephus on the depth chart

Not everyone does. Quintez owners still believe.

Cephus had 10 targets Week 1 and had nearly as many drops (2) as catches(3.) After week he never saw significant snaps again until there were 2 or more receivers hurt, and my recollection is 2-3 targets down the stretch.

Nice to hear he had a good minicamp. In that WR room (the worst in the NFL by a good margin) he’ll be given opportunity. Personally I don’t think he’s ever gonna be more than a WR4 IRL or ever be fantasy relevant.

You could def make the argument it’s rare a Day 3 WR ever puts up a top 24 season so why should we expect anything different from ARSB? Fair enough, but either way you’re talking about a WW snag or a 15th round pick - low cost flyer in redraft. Can’t imagine the dynasty investment is much more on a relative basis.

For 2021 I think the rookie has more upside. Beyond that, he’ll always be fighting for his starting job.

There’s a universe where Quintez is seeing snaps in 11 formations. I just think he’s just a guy. I like ARSB marginally better this year but I doubt he is on his way to being anything special. Relative to what hey gave rostered though I think he’ll emerge as Goff’s favorite chain mover outside his of 88 and 32. But I’m thinking about it in terms of a range of outcomes. I’ve never understood the mentality you have to plant your flag on marginal guys.

May or may not happen for 14. If he doesn’t, it will be fairly painless to move on.

Edited by BobbyLayne
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13 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

You could def make the argument it’s rare a Day 3 WR ever puts up a top 24 season so why should we expect anything different from ARSB? Fair enough, but either way you’re talking about a WW snag or a 15th round pick - low cost flyer in redraft. Can’t imagine the dynasty investment is much more on a relative basis.

Given this class his dynasty investment seems reasonable in a rookie vacuum, but my side eye is strong across the whole landscape. I just did a startup in which he was picked immediately after Reagor, Ruggs, and Corey Davis then I picked Mike Williams a round plus later. Granted, that's just one draft but he isn't much lower in a larger pool. I'm not sure exactly where I'd slot him (that isn't how I assemble my board), but I'm sure not in alignment with that ranking.

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I guess we'll see.  *Shrugs.*

I like the potential volume.  But Hockenson is probably the #1 guy there.  And there's nothing stopping them from bringing in better free agents or higher drafted rookies in the coming years.  He's not someone i hate or dislike.  

Redraft wise:  Meh.  The Lions will probably suck and throw a lot.  He may have decent totals, and will cost pennies.  But he's probably someone that isn't going to be rostered in most redraft leagues.

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  • IHEARTFF changed the title to Dynasty & Redraft: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions impressing as rookie in camp

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