How many of your Dynasty starters are changing NFL teams? (1 Viewer)

Seems like a pretty good chunk of my roster is either a FA, a trade candidate or would benefit from departure of others.

looking at my starting roster, I’m seeing 7/10 starters who fit the above. Possibly 8/10. So...70-80%?  

I’m a little excited because if they land in the right spots it could be an upgrade. But that’s a big if, so it’s nerve racking.

1st time I’ve been in this position. 

Anyone else going through this or gone through it in the past? 

This is one of the reasons why I typically evaluate players for dynasty on a 2-yr basis.  So much stuff (like this) can change value/performance so looking too far down the road can be non-beneficial.  It can really hurt you.  

Gally said:

This is one of the reasons why I typically evaluate players for dynasty on a 2-yr basis.  So much stuff (like this) can change value/performance so looking too far down the road can be non-beneficial.  It can really hurt you.  

Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm definitely taking a "lesson learned" about checking players actual NFL contracts prior to acquiring them.  Several of these are guys I traded for, as I've been a playoff team all 3 years of this league & I always hunt for upgrades before the deadline. 

I'm going to try to be optimistic about it, but definitely potential for disaster. 

As of this moment I'm looking at 

• Derrick Carr - looks like OAK is gonna try to more Mariotta, but Carr is still a possibility. 
  
• Alan Robinson - FA, but could be franchised, and I just read Chicago wants him to stay, so in this case, remaining in place could hurt depending on who the QB is. 
  
• Chris Carson - FA
  
• Curtis Samuel - FA
  
• Will Fuller - FA
  
• Gronk - FA
  
• Ertz - trade candidate (not a starter for me) 
  
• Ronald Jones - waiting on word about Fournette. If Fournette leaves, I'll get to spend the off-season wondering if the Bucs will sign another guy to split carries with or go forward with Jones/Vaughn in a lopsided time-share (obv my preference) 
  

That's just a lot of instability.  The only 3 starters I can count on being there are mike Evans, Hopkins & Mahomes. 

Gally said:

This is one of the reasons why I typically evaluate players for dynasty on a 2-yr basis.  So much stuff (like this) can change value/performance so looking too far down the road can be non-beneficial.  It can really hurt you.  

Click to expand...

Yep - and this is one of the reasons I generally try not to move draft picks, but rather accumulate extra ones. The plan is for those guys to be on their team through their rookie contract and ideally starting by year 2. This way if things go sideways short term with my vets I'm not reliant on them; I have built in backup plans teed up. 

Yep happens every year. Corey Davis, Juju are probably my biggest names this year but I don't spend much time worrying about what guys already on my roster might do in FA bit rather what buy low opps might be out there. 

I did buy Claypool in a couple spots sort of banking that Juju would be leaving, so indirectly it is a factor as my preference would be not to have two WRs from the same team, but it isn't a huge deterrent. 

barackdhouse said:

Yep happens every year. Corey Davis, Juju are probably my biggest names this year but I don't spend much time worrying about what guys already on my roster might do in FA bit rather what buy low opps might be out there. 

I did buy Claypool in a couple spots sort of banking that Juju would be leaving, so indirectly it is a factor as my preference would be not to have two WRs from the same team, but it isn't a huge deterrent. 

Click to expand...

Memo for all: pay attention to the contract situations of those on teams that draft rookies fairly early. A player may appear buried, but all that does is create a discount opportunity.

Not to the extent your looking at but last year I had D.Hopkins and S.Diggs both move teams and I had league mates and for a greater extent parts of the internet people saying both would implode in their new destinations. 

Diggs set career highs in receptions/yards and was the 5th overall points for WR/TE (TE premium)

Hopkins had his most targets since 2017 and was 6th overall points for WR/TE (TE premium)

Both I had worried slightly after all the talk, but held firm (I think I was offered C.Carson for Diggs at one point) and was happy with the outcome.

Also although not a new team but was looking ahead to this offseason so I also read all the negative hype about Dillion affecting A.Jones and traded him away for a 2021 1st and M.Andrews last off-season....Yea that's what I get for not listening to my gut.

I suppose who it is your concerned about but I learned my lesson on both accounts. 

Dacomish said:

Not to the extent your looking at but last year I had D.Hopkins and S.Diggs both move teams and I had league mates and for a greater extent parts of the internet people saying both would implode in their new destinations. 

Diggs set career highs in receptions/yards and was the 5th overall points for WR/TE (TE premium)

Hopkins had his most targets since 2017 and was 6th overall points for WR/TE (TE premium)

Both I had worried slightly after all the talk, but held firm (I think I was offered C.Carson for Diggs at one point) and was happy with the outcome.

Also although not a new team but was looking ahead to this offseason so I also read all the negative hype about Dillion affecting A.Jones and traded him away for a 2021 1st and M.Andrews last off-season....Yea that's what I get for not listening to my gut.

I suppose who it is your concerned about but I learned my lesson on both accounts. 

Click to expand...

I think it's important to prepare as if players going elsewhere may lose value and will suffer growing pains, but it's similarly important not to move them while their stock is more volatile. This is why depth and contingency plans are so valuable. Once they stabilize again then consider taking them to market.

I actually love loading up on FA's whose value could spike either by them finding greener pastures or just them leaving opens up a spot for someone else. I own tons of Fournette, ROJO, Penny, Antonio Brown, Hilton, JuJu and Gerald Everett. Many of these players, really all of them other then JuJu, I got for borderline free or peanuts mid to late season when they were let downs and again I love hording these kind of players. Even the old WR's can have an impactful season or two in them in the right spot and if I don't like were they or any of these players land that's just a nice easy cut.

Also I do NOT play dynasty as a short 2-3 year window as some suggested. It's a little more nuanced with each and every player, with their contract, age/contract of QB and supporting cast, coaching staff performance, front office tendencies. A lot goes into it. Technically in-season this is a week to week game were values can change and for sure many long term forecast will miss but that's all part of why dynasty is a bit more chess to redrafts checkers. Also I'd add with respect to most big time studs they rarely ever actually make it to market so when big time proven studs do it's usually because their existing teams don't think they are that guy anymore.

menobrown said:

I actually love loading up on FA's whose value could spike either by them finding greener pastures or just them leaving opens up a spot for someone else. I own tons of Fournette, ROJO, Penny, Antonio Brown, Hilton, JuJu and Gerald Everett. Many of these players, really all of them other then JuJu, I got for borderline free or peanuts mid to late season when they were let downs and again I love hording these kind of players. Even the old WR's can have an impactful season or two in them in the right spot and if I don't like were they or any of these players land that's just a nice easy cut.

Also I do NOT play dynasty as a short 2-3 year window as some suggested. It's a little more nuanced with each and every player, with their contract, age/contract of QB and supporting cast, coaching staff performance, front office tendencies. A lot goes into it. Technically in-season this is a week to week game were values can change and for sure many long term forecast will miss but that's all part of why dynasty is a bit more chess to redrafts checkers. Also I'd add with respect to most big time studs they rarely ever actually make it to market so when big time proven studs do it's usually because their existing teams don't think they are that guy anymore.

Click to expand...

I think bench speculating is a substantially different endeavor than staples in your lineup. I did the same with Penny and Everett (plus Winston, MAC, among others). I do that every year. I'm not expecting any of them to be in my week 1 lineup though. 

MAC_32 said:

I think bench speculating is a substantially different endeavor than staples in your lineup. I did the same with Penny and Everett (plus Winston, MAC, among others). I do that every year. I'm not expecting any of them to be in my week 1 lineup though. 

Click to expand...

I can't say I agree, can certainly say I personally use the same approach on bench speculating as lineup staples. JuJu was close to a staple for instance and I view and manage him the same way. It's pretty simple for me. If a player is approaching FA and I think if he left it's likely he'd lose value I'd have already tried to trade him. If I think a player has a shot at improving his value I try and trade for them or acquire them as FA's. Same approach so again for me it's not different.

Also I can't possibly know who I expect to be in my week one lineup or not until they land with their teams. But I would never carry any of these players if I did not think a landing spot made them viable week one starters.

Dacomish said:

Not to the extent your looking at but last year I had D.Hopkins and S.Diggs both move teams and I had league mates and for a greater extent parts of the internet people saying both would implode in their new destinations. 

Hopkins had his most targets since 2017 and was 6th overall points for WR/TE (TE premium)

Click to expand...

I remember the Hopkins neg hype. 7/12 leaguemates floated me somewhat low offers for Hopkins & I thought, "well geez, if he's gonna suck so bad in AZ why does 60% of my league want him?"

So I stuck with him & am very glad I did. 

With ARob & Carson, I can't help but believe that anywhere they go will be an upgrade because teams going for them will likely be doing so to make them centerpiece players. 

menobrown said:

I can't say I agree, can certainly say I personally use the same approach on bench speculating as lineup staples. JuJu was close to a staple for instance and I view and manage him the same way. It's pretty simple for me. If a player is approaching FA and I think if he left it's likely he'd lose value I'd have already tried to trade him. If I think a player has a shot at improving his value I try and trade for them or acquire them as FA's. Same approach so again for me it's not different.

Also I can't possibly know who I expect to be in my week one lineup or not until they land with their teams. But I would never carry any of these players if I did not think a landing spot made them viable week one starters.

Click to expand...

Slightly off-topic, but I think JuJu has as good a shot at retaining value with a trade as any of the FA WR's. He's still a superior route runner, makes contested catches and can be a veteran presence for a team with young talent. I think he'd be a great fit for NYG, for example. Danny Dimes could really benefit from a reliable WR like JuJu - he's almost like a faster TE at this point, but as we saw last year he has a propensity for getting into the end zone with quality route running & size enough to bully people off the line. 

I've seen some "lost a step" commentary floating around throughout 2020, but I just didn't see it. Dude had more than a few 8+ reception games, & a lot of the PIT struggles were on Big Ben's arm, not JuJu's routes or hands. 

In the right situation JuJu might even see a boost. I can't believe how many people want to shovel dirt on him like he's old - dude's 24 and just had his 2nd highest receiving total & highest TD total. 

I may have just talked myself into trying to acquire him this off-season once my league transactions open up. heh

Hot Sauce Guy said:

Slightly off-topic, but I think JuJu has as good a shot at retaining value with a trade as any of the FA WR's. He's still a superior route runner, makes contested catches and can be a veteran presence for a team with young talent. I think he'd be a great fit for NYG, for example. Danny Dimes could really benefit from a reliable WR like JuJu - he's almost like a faster TE at this point, but as we saw last year he has a propensity for getting into the end zone with quality route running & size enough to bully people off the line. 

I've seen some "lost a step" commentary floating around throughout 2020, but I just didn't see it. Dude had more than a few 8+ reception games, & a lot of the PIT struggles were on Big Ben's arm, not JuJu's routes or hands. 

In the right situation JuJu might even see a boost. I can't believe how many people want to shovel dirt on him like he's old - dude's 24 and just had his 2nd highest receiving total & highest TD total. 

I may have just talked myself into trying to acquire him this off-season once my league transactions open up. heh

Click to expand...

I agree, and like I was saying earlier if I did not think so I'd have tried to trade him but his value had lowered so much I felt it was better to hang on and see if he went somewhere it jumped his stock.

He could also go someplace even worse, were he's a volume guy not getting volume but I just try and shoot for upside so I'm good with the gamble. It does stand to reason that if you pay a WR what he might command the volume will work itself out in most places.

MAC_32 said:

I think bench speculating is a substantially different endeavor than staples in your lineup. I did the same with Penny and Everett (plus Winston, MAC, among others). I do that every year. I'm not expecting any of them to be in my week 1 lineup though. 

Click to expand...

Absolutely. In FFPC I feel like there is only room for studs and speculative plays. The middle of the road producers are just roster cloggers. Deeper roster formats create different market dynamics. But in my opinion speculating is crucial in FFPC. But so are the staples and there just isn't room for anything in the middle. Largely.

menobrown said:

I actually love loading up on FA's whose value could spike either by them finding greener pastures or just them leaving opens up a spot for someone else. I own tons of Fournette, ROJO, Penny, Antonio Brown, Hilton, JuJu and Gerald Everett. Many of these players, really all of them other then JuJu, I got for borderline free or peanuts mid to late season when they were let downs and again I love hording these kind of players. Even the old WR's can have an impactful season or two in them in the right spot and if I don't like were they or any of these players land that's just a nice easy cut.

Click to expand...

Just bought Higbee in FFPC SF for my 3.10. I don't think my trade partner is anticipating Everett leaving or maybe he doesn't care, but I roster Higbee in a few other spots and would not even counter if that offer had come to me. Guy put out message saying he would take a late 3rd so I did it.

barackdhouse said:

Just bought Higbee in FFPC SF for my 3.10. I don't think my trade partner is anticipating Everett leaving or maybe he doesn't care, but I roster Higbee in a few other spots and would not even counter if that offer had come to me. Guy put out message saying he would take a late 3rd so I did it.

Click to expand...

I did the same thing for the same price with Chase Edmonds in January. 

MAC_32 said:

I did the same thing for the same price with Chase Edmonds in January. 

Click to expand...

Edmonds is a strange case where he ascended to the starting gig due to injury, played like a monster, then the team went out and got a starter anyway.  

He's got weekly PPR flex value, but I'm not sure he'll ever be a starting RB without injury to the early down back. I don't think you got bad value on him at that price, but it's hard for me to see him being worth more than he was in 2020. I know Drake is a FA, but I'd be shocked if the Cards didn't bring  in a 1A RB to keep Edmonds in the same role. 

/derail

Hot Sauce Guy said:

Edmonds is a strange case where he ascended to the starting gig due to injury, played like a monster, then the team went out and got a starter anyway.  

He's got weekly PPR flex value, but I'm not sure he'll ever be a starting RB without injury to the early down back. I don't think you got bad value on him at that price, but it's hard for me to see him being worth more than he was in 2020. I know Drake is a FA, but I'd be shocked if the Cards didn't bring  in a 1A RB to keep Edmonds in the same role. 

/derail

Click to expand...

I don't think rb is one of their top priorities, they don't have much money available to spend, and they don't have many flexible contracts to create more space. I don't disagree with your assessment, but given their current situation I think it's well within the range of potential outcomes they go to wave 2 free agency or round 3 of the draft for a 2nd rb. I think it depends on how much the tier 1 rb's are offered with the suppressed cap and of course the top 3 rb's in the draft. 

MAC_32 said:

I don't think rb is one of their top priorities, they don't have much money available to spend, and they don't have many flexible contracts to create more space. I don't disagree with your assessment, but given their current situation I think it's well within the range of potential outcomes they go to wave 2 free agency or round 3 of the draft for a 2nd rb. I think it depends on how much the tier 1 rb's are offered with the suppressed cap and of course the top 3 rb's in the draft. 

Click to expand...

I agree, but I wouldn't put it past them to bring in an aging asset like the Jets did with Gore. IMO they just don't view Edmonds as a feature back, or they prefer to use him as a situational type swiss-army knife that they can line up all over the field & use as a receiver. 

I think he's worth what you paid though.