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Ok, which team's are drafting a QB this year?


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We have 4 arguably first round style QBs this year, so who needs a QB (mac Jones is there too, but the question will be does someone take him round 1 or is he the odd man out)?  Let's look at the top 15 teams in the draft and see who needs one and who may be willing to move up to get their guy?

 

The QBs are Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, and Lance

1)Jax - Done deal.  Trevor Lawrence. that leaves the other 3.

2) Jets - well, does the new regime roll with darnold and take a skill player or Sewell, or trade down?

3) Miami - Think they are sticking with Tua.

4) Atlanta - I'd say "not yet"

5) Cinci -  Locked and loaded

6 - 8  Philly, detroit, and Carolina - basically all are similar.  Philly has Hurts, Detroit just got Goff, and Carolina has teddy but do they stand pat or draft a "better" guy?

9) Denver: If a QB is there, they are taking one.  They may be left out if the New york and 6-8 go QB shopping.

10) Dallas: Unless Prescott thing gets real ugly, I don't see it.

11) Giants - Nope

12) SF - Like Denver, they may be left out in the cold here.

13) Chargers - Nope, but they may trade up to get some weapons or an olineman.

14) Vikings - I doubt it, but a wildcard here.

15) Patriots - If one of the top 4 falls I can't see the pats missing out, Maybe they try and trade up, or perhaps they think Mac Jones is the guy and take him way early.  

19 and 20 - Chicago and washington?  The need is there.

Pitt? 

That's pretty much it.

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1 hour ago, IHEARTFF said:

 

Atlanta will if they love a guy at 4

 

If they think Ryan/Julio is going to be around to lead a new regime to the SB they are fooling themselves. This is a much, much different team that was in the SB just a few years ago. If they can't live with the QB left on the board they better find someone that is willing to trade up for that guy.

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8 hours ago, Gatorman said:

We have 4 arguably first round style QBs this year, so who needs a QB (mac Jones is there too, but the question will be does someone take him round 1 or is he the odd man out)?  Let's look at the top 15 teams in the draft and see who needs one and who may be willing to move up to get their guy?

 

The QBs are Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, and Lance

1)Jax - Done deal.  Trevor Lawrence. that leaves the other 3.

2) Jets - well, does the new regime roll with darnold and take a skill player or Sewell, or trade down?

3) Miami - Think they are sticking with Tua.

4) Atlanta - I'd say "not yet"

5) Cinci -  Locked and loaded

6 - 8  Philly, detroit, and Carolina - basically all are similar.  Philly has Hurts, Detroit just got Goff, and Carolina has teddy but do they stand pat or draft a "better" guy?

9) Denver: If a QB is there, they are taking one.  They may be left out if the New york and 6-8 go QB shopping.

 

I think the Jets OR the Falcons will take a qb, but not both.  The odds are just one of them takes one.

As for 6-8, 1 for SURE goes... maybe even 2.  If 2, then Denver is out.

12 possibilities for the big 4 IMO:

1/2/6/7
1/2/6/8
1/2/6/9
1/2/7/8
1/2/7/9
1/2/8/9
1/4/6/7
1/4/6/8
1/4/6/9
1/4/7/8
1/4/7/9
1/4/8/9

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My guess is QBs go:
2 in the top 2
3 in the top 5
4 in the top 10
5 in rd1

First two to JAC & NYJ, most of the others to trade-ups. About a third of the league looking at QBs so lots of ways it could go.

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35 minutes ago, ZWK said:

My guess is QBs go:
2 in the top 2
3 in the top 5
4 in the top 10
5 in rd1

First two to JAC & NYJ, most of the others to trade-ups. About a third of the league looking at QBs so lots of ways it could go.

I agree with every guess except for 3 in the top 5.  I'd be quite surprised.

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49 minutes ago, Deamon said:

I agree with every guess except for 3 in the top 5.  I'd be quite surprised.

Are you down on Fields or Wilson? Or just think that teams won't be trading up? With 4 QB-needy teams at 6-9, it won't be so easy to sit patiently the way that MIA & LAC did last year.

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Just now, ZWK said:

Are you down on Fields or Wilson? Or just think that teams won't be trading up? With 4 QB-needy teams at 6-9, it won't be so easy to sit patiently the way that MIA & LAC did last year.

Not really down on either of them.  Just think that once the process all sorts itself out, one of them will be seen as a top 4 pick and the other won't.  I would think Fields would be the more likely one to slip, and if I had to guess, Wilson will either go to Atlanta or NYJ, with Fields dropping to Philly at 6 or Detroit at 7

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You never know how a team thinks, but a team like Miami can get a lot of mileage on a trade down.  The Jets as well if, let's say, they fall in love with Mac Jones over the other guys at the top.

Strangely, the one team I don't hear any rumors about is Denver.  Atlanta, Philly, New England, San Fran, Carolina there definitely are whispers. (I think denver is slow playing the concept of someone falling to them or getting in to the watson sweepstakes)

Miami, Cincy, LA Chargers and The Giants all stand to get some good value with what the QB craziness "could" be.

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I can see 6 going first round this year, and quite possibly 4 of them before Dal picks tenth. Jac, Jets, Det, Car, Den, SF, NE, Wft, and Chi should all be looking for an upgrade from what they have on their roster. There are a few other teams that might just take a chance on Jones or Trask if they fall their way. 

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On 2/19/2021 at 2:46 AM, King of the Jungle said:

Certainly could happen (e.g. Packers and Love last year)

I didn't get it with Love and I wouldn't get it with Trask either. 

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49 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

I didn't get it with Love and I wouldn't get it with Trask either. 

I never got it with Love but I get it with Trask.  I don't think he's a world beater or anything but with the right set up he can be a Matt Ryan.

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4 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

I never got it with Love but I get it with Trask.  I don't think he's a world beater or anything but with the right set up he can be a Matt Ryan.

His best case is adequate. On a team with a creative play caller. And a stout o line. And special play makers.

He's a trailer. 

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1 minute ago, MAC_32 said:

His best case is adequate. On a team with a creative play caller. And a stout o line. And special play makers.

He's a trailer. 

So is Brady.  Brees.  The mannings.  Being more than a statue is a plus but if he shows he's able to make those small steps in the pocket to get extra seconds as a pro he could have a good career.

Not saying he'll be a Brady/manning/brees, just that I think he's got what's between the ears to make up for his lack of mobility.

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1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

So is Brady.  Brees.  The mannings.  Being more than a statue is a plus but if he shows he's able to make those small steps in the pocket to get extra seconds as a pro he could have a good career.

Not saying he'll be a Brady/manning/brees, just that I think he's got what's between the ears to make up for his lack of mobility.

Brady, Brees, and Manning aren't trailers. They're tractors. 

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4 hours ago, SoBeDad said:

Miami needs a cheap backup. I doubt it happens, but imagine if they fall in love with Fields or Lance - Tua would be cheap and long-term. 

what

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4 hours ago, Deamon said:

what

Dolphin fans are split on whether Tua is the answer. Some of the coaches might not be sold. The Dolphins may never get a chance again to draft a QB with the #3 pick, with the athleticism of Fields or Lance. I doubt that it happens. Wasn't Mahomes drafted as a guy with elite arm strength, but accuracy concerns?

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On 2/19/2021 at 12:38 AM, wgoldsph said:

Call me crazy but I see a team falling in love with Trask and trading into the very end of the 1st in order to get that 5th year.

You are crazy 

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On 2/19/2021 at 12:38 AM, wgoldsph said:

Call me crazy but I see a team falling in love with Trask and trading into the very end of the 1st in order to get that 5th year.

I think Trask is closer to a round 4 pick than round 1. He doesn’t have the arm strength. 

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My prediction:

1.01 Jags-Lawrence because duh

1.02 Jets- Wilson. I like Fields better but I’ll just say maybe there is something to the buzz. They trade Darnold to Washington who is desperate for a QB upgrade since their team is ready to win now in a weak division.

1.03 Carolina- Fields in a trade up to leapfrog Atlanta. Carolina has been aggressive this offseason in trying to upgrade QB as they think they are really close to being a contender. Zoom out big picture Fields is more proven and a better fit for the modern NFL than Wilson. 


1.09 Denver- Lance. Philly and Detroit got WR or OL so a chance to upgrade QB falls into Broncos lap. The offense is ready, is Lance? 
 
1.15 Bears- Mac Jones because what else do they have? The coach and GM are on the hot seat and will be desperate. Patriots will gladly take a haul to move back.

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10 minutes ago, Capella said:

I think Trask is closer to a round 4 pick than round 1. He doesn’t have the arm strength. 

I predict 1 or 2 other QBs go before Trask honestly. Him skipping the Senior Bowl was telling. He’s hiding. 

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6 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I predict 1 or 2 other QBs go before Trask honestly. Him skipping the Senior Bowl was telling. He’s hiding. 

He’s extremely accurate but his deep throws at Florida often fluttered and he has loads of talent that was wide open to throw to. Feels like a career backup to me. When he gets picked in round 4 everybody will go oh wow what a steal and we’ll never hear from him again. 
 

Skipping the senior bowl was weird. He was healthy. 

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On Jan 4, from Miami Herald writer Barry Jackson:

>>At least a handful of NFL people say the Dolphins need to at least consider using the third overall pick on a quarterback.

Additions to that group, in recent days, include ESPN analyst and former Dolphins executive Mike Tannenbaum, NFL Network draft analyst/former NFL scout Bucky Brooks and prominent local agents Drew Rosenhaus (on his WSVN-Fox 7 segment on Sunday) and David Canter (on his Twitter account on Sunday).

They have to compare Tua to Justin Fields and Zach Wilson,” Brooks tweeted of the well-regarded Ohio State and BYU quarterback prospects. “They must be convinced that he’s a better QB prospect than those guys to proceed with him. If not, they should take a QB and let them compete. Cowboys did it in ‘89 and ‘90 with Troy Aikman and Steve Walsh.”

Walsh was selected in the supplemental draft.

The preference here would be to stick with Tagovailoa and instead augment the offense around him because it’s far too soon to judge Tagovailoa with such a limited supporting cast.<<

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article248221205.html

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8 hours ago, SoBeDad said:

On Jan 4, from Miami Herald writer Barry Jackson:

>>At least a handful of NFL people say the Dolphins need to at least consider using the third overall pick on a quarterback.

Additions to that group, in recent days, include ESPN analyst and former Dolphins executive Mike Tannenbaum, NFL Network draft analyst/former NFL scout Bucky Brooks and prominent local agents Drew Rosenhaus (on his WSVN-Fox 7 segment on Sunday) and David Canter (on his Twitter account on Sunday).

They have to compare Tua to Justin Fields and Zach Wilson,” Brooks tweeted of the well-regarded Ohio State and BYU quarterback prospects. “They must be convinced that he’s a better QB prospect than those guys to proceed with him. If not, they should take a QB and let them compete. Cowboys did it in ‘89 and ‘90 with Troy Aikman and Steve Walsh.”

Walsh was selected in the supplemental draft.

The preference here would be to stick with Tagovailoa and instead augment the offense around him because it’s far too soon to judge Tagovailoa with such a limited supporting cast.<<

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article248221205.html

Let's really look at this.  If Miami was interested in moving on from Tua after year one it means a lot of things to the local media:

1) They screwed the pooch on Herbert vs Tua.  I'm not sure Grier wants to own up to that a year after taking the reigns as the GM

2) All they've done in the offseason (getting  a Tua style OC and QB Coach) was all smoke.

I do not see this being how they go about admitting they may have made a mistake on Tua. (and mind you, I don't think they made a mistake picking him, but herbert seems to be the better QB)

IF Miami was to move on from Tua, it will be for Watson.  That is the best "save face" move for the front office (Watson is a no brainer over Tua), and even if the trade goes down without Tua being part of the package (cap issues) Miami has their starter and their backup locked in.

You need balls of steel to pick a QB the year after taking one that high.  Arizona could do it bc it was a whole new regime.  I could see Miami (if they deal themselves more picks) taking a "prospect" after round 2 or 3.  I've even done some mocks where Jones falls to pick 36 and the fins take him (assuming they don't get a veteran backup in FA)

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19 minutes ago, Gatorman said:

Let's really look at this.  If Miami was interested in moving on from Tua after year one it means a lot of things to the local media:

1) They screwed the pooch on Herbert vs Tua.  I'm not sure Grier wants to own up to that a year after taking the reigns as the GM

2) All they've done in the offseason (getting  a Tua style OC and QB Coach) was all smoke.

I do not see this being how they go about admitting they may have made a mistake on Tua. (and mind you, I don't think they made a mistake picking him, but herbert seems to be the better QB)

IF Miami was to move on from Tua, it will be for Watson.  That is the best "save face" move for the front office (Watson is a no brainer over Tua), and even if the trade goes down without Tua being part of the package (cap issues) Miami has their starter and their backup locked in.

You need balls of steel to pick a QB the year after taking one that high.  Arizona could do it bc it was a whole new regime.  I could see Miami (if they deal themselves more picks) taking a "prospect" after round 2 or 3.  I've even done some mocks where Jones falls to pick 36 and the fins take him (assuming they don't get a veteran backup in FA)

Completely agree on 1. Some fans think the team screwed up on all 3 1st round picks in 2020, but it's too early to say. When Tua was drafted, almost everyone said it was a good to great pick. The later picks in 2020 may be better than the 1st round picks. 

If Miami picks Sewell it's also saying that LT Jackson hasn't lived up to expectations, although Sewell is supposedly a generational tackle. Another reason why Miami will pick Chase or Smith. 

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On 2/18/2021 at 4:15 PM, Gatorman said:

We have 4 arguably first round style QBs this year, so who needs a QB (mac Jones is there too, but the question will be does someone take him round 1 or is he the odd man out)?  Let's look at the top 15 teams in the draft and see who needs one and who may be willing to move up to get their guy?

 

The QBs are Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, and Lance

1)Jax - Done deal.  Trevor Lawrence. that leaves the other 3.

2) Jets - well, does the new regime roll with darnold and take a skill player or Sewell, or trade down?

3) Miami - Think they are sticking with Tua.

4) Atlanta - I'd say "not yet"

5) Cinci -  Locked and loaded

6 - 8  Philly, detroit, and Carolina - basically all are similar.  Philly has Hurts, Detroit just got Goff, and Carolina has teddy but do they stand pat or draft a "better" guy?

9) Denver: If a QB is there, they are taking one.  They may be left out if the New york and 6-8 go QB shopping.

10) Dallas: Unless Prescott thing gets real ugly, I don't see it.

11) Giants - Nope

12) SF - Like Denver, they may be left out in the cold here.

13) Chargers - Nope, but they may trade up to get some weapons or an olineman.

14) Vikings - I doubt it, but a wildcard here.

15) Patriots - If one of the top 4 falls I can't see the pats missing out, Maybe they try and trade up, or perhaps they think Mac Jones is the guy and take him way early.  

19 and 20 - Chicago and washington?  The need is there.

Pitt? 

That's pretty much it.

Saints and Bucs need a young qb pretty bad, probably not in position to get one but the need is there.

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16 hours ago, SoBeDad said:

Completely agree on 1. Some fans think the team screwed up on all 3 1st round picks in 2020, but it's too early to say. When Tua was drafted, almost everyone said it was a good to great pick. The later picks in 2020 may be better than the 1st round picks. 

If Miami picks Sewell it's also saying that LT Jackson hasn't lived up to expectations, although Sewell is supposedly a generational tackle. Another reason why Miami will pick Chase or Smith. 

Not sure I agree with this.  Let's say the phins ended up with pick #1, I see them taking Lawrence, not because of a mis-hit with Tua, but because he is supposedly a generational talent. Sewell is a generational talent, but to be fair, some say that about chase as well.

 

Back to the topic at hand: Saints and Bucs do need a QB, but I think that they pass on it this year (Maybe Mac Jones) because I think the Saints are going to ride or die with what is on their roster and the Bucs are in a "win now" mode with Brady so likely they go RB or defense (or maybe O LIne) to keep the party going until the GOATs arm falls off.

Now that the Steelers seem to be ride or die with big ben, I think their pick is likely a RB or O lineman as well.  Maybe they go after a QB later.

The dominos that still need to fall:

Watson (but that will be a while)

Darnold (I think this happens after watson or the draft)

Marriotta - evidently the contract is the hangup.  Will a team bite?

Free Agency: Fitzmagic, Tyrod Taylor, and Dalton?

Whatever Dallas is doing...

Then we get to the Draft.

 

SIDE NOTE: what does Jax do with Minshew?

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On 2/24/2021 at 6:04 AM, SoBeDad said:

Dolphin fans are split on whether Tua is the answer. Some of the coaches might not be sold. The Dolphins may never get a chance again to draft a QB with the #3 pick, with the athleticism of Fields or Lance. I doubt that it happens. Wasn't Mahomes drafted as a guy with elite arm strength, but accuracy concerns?

Ya I get all that, but I can't see them keeping tua as a 4 year backup. That would shock me. They'd trade him if they went qb at 3 I would think. Shouldn't have your starter and backup both as 1st/2nd year high pick developing qbs. 

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12 minutes ago, babydemon90 said:

So we can pencil him in to the Eagles at #6?

I think Trask gets a bad rap here.  He's a smart player with good accuracy.  His ceiling is likely chad pennington.  More likely a career backup / spot starter but (as always) with the right OC he could be good. (solid ball placement).

 

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32 minutes ago, Gatorman said:

I think Trask gets a bad rap here.  He's a smart player with good accuracy.  His ceiling is likely chad pennington.  More likely a career backup / spot starter but (as always) with the right OC he could be good. (solid ball placement).

 

I don’t think that’s a bad rap. That’s more or less what I said. 

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44 minutes ago, Capella said:

I don’t think that’s a bad rap. That’s more or less what I said. 

not really arguing the point other than a 4th rounder may be a bit low.  The kid out of USC (Mills?) has a higher grade just bc he was recruited more out of college. I do think (and again arguing more with draftniks) that Trasks production makes him a better pick (IMHO)

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4 hours ago, Gatorman said:

not really arguing the point other than a 4th rounder may be a bit low.  The kid out of USC (Mills?) has a higher grade just bc he was recruited more out of college. I do think (and again arguing more with draftniks) that Trasks production makes him a better pick (IMHO)

I think his accuracy is pretty great, but a lot of the times Pitts was just running wide open like the other team wasn’t playing D - he didn’t have to make a lot of hard throws, and I don’t think he has nfl velocity for the deep balls or the long outs. 

He reminds me so much of Alex Smith, who admittedly has played a very long time.  

 

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On 2/24/2021 at 8:44 AM, SoBeDad said:

>At least a handful of NFL people say the Dolphins need to at least consider using the third overall pick on a quarterback.

Additions to that group, in recent days, include ESPN analyst and former Dolphins executive Mike Tannenbaum

If failed dolphins GM T-bum thinks they should draft a QB, they definitely should NOT. 

Edited by jtd13
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On 2/24/2021 at 5:00 PM, Gatorman said:

1) They screwed the pooch on Herbert vs Tua.  I'm not sure Grier wants to own up to that a year after taking the reigns as the GM

Minority opinion, but this isn't even close to settled. Tua was throwing to 4th stringers in competitive games while Herbert was throwing to Allen, Ekeler, Williams, and Henry in comeback mode. The situations for passing stats couldn't have been more different. 

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20 hours ago, Gatorman said:

not really arguing the point other than a 4th rounder may be a bit low.  The kid out of USC (Mills?) has a higher grade just bc he was recruited more out of college. I do think (and again arguing more with draftniks) that Trasks production makes him a better pick (IMHO)

4th is probably low, but I don't see the point in anything > a 3rd. Quality backups are important, but is a draft pick the right mechanism to acquire one? I think a veteran backup and using the draft for other means is optimal. By the time Trask develops into a quality backup he'll be headed towards his second contract. That's when you want him.

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3 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

Minority opinion, but this isn't even close to settled. Tua was throwing to 4th stringers in competitive games while Herbert was throwing to Allen, Ekeler, Williams, and Henry in comeback mode. The situations for passing stats couldn't have been more different. 

Plus Tua was rehabbing an injury into November. 2020's reactions to him were gross over reactions.

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Just now, MAC_32 said:

Plus Tua was rehabbing an injury into November. 2020's reactions to him were gross over reactions.

That too. His arm strength was definitely a negative last season. Maybe that was always the case and all the weapons at Bama covered it up, or maybe going from not walking in February to starting in November sapped some play strength, which he can recover with a full offseason. Time will tell. 

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3 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Plus Tua was rehabbing an injury into November. 2020's reactions to him were gross over reactions.

Tua has said several times that the hip wasn't a factor in his performance. The reasons for concern include Fitzpatrick (who is underrated) doing much better with the same talent.  I hope he gets better, and the upside comp would be Brees. He doesn't have great athleticism or arm strength, so he needs to nail it on accuracy, decision making and mobility within the pocket. He does seem to be accurate. The $10 million dollar question is whether Fields or Lance will turn into another Allen (drafted 7th) or Mahomes (drafted 10th) or Jackson (drafted 32nd).  It's not easy to predict - most people were on board drafting Tua over Herbert.

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2 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Tua has said several times that the hip wasn't a factor in his performance. The reasons for concern include Fitzpatrick (who is underrated) doing much better with the same talent.  I hope he gets better, and the upside comp would be Brees. He doesn't have great athleticism or arm strength, so he needs to nail it on accuracy, decision making and mobility within the pocket. He does seem to be accurate. The $10 million dollar question is whether Fields or Lance will turn into another Allen (drafted 7th) or Mahomes (drafted 10th) or Jackson (drafted 32nd).  It's not easy to predict - most people were on board drafting Tua over Herbert.

Of course he's going to say that. I think that's a good thing. He's not making public excuses because the public doesn't care. The public just wants dubs.

I think it's meaningful because he will spend his '21 offseason trying to prepare for the season rather than devoting his time & energy to rehabbing. How much of an impact that has varies person-to-person, but it is an impactful difference regardless. Especially with rookies. Especially with quarterbacks. And especially amidst covid.

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21 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Tua has said several times that the hip wasn't a factor in his performance. The reasons for concern include Fitzpatrick (who is underrated) doing much better with the same talent.  I hope he gets better, and the upside comp would be Brees. He doesn't have great athleticism or arm strength, so he needs to nail it on accuracy, decision making and mobility within the pocket. He does seem to be accurate. 

People way overstate how Fitz looked IMO. He looked better than Tua at times, but Fitz also plays with an insane amount of DGAF. That helps a lot when your top WRs are an injured DVP (who has always been a guy who plays terribly through injuries, if he plays), Isaiah Ford, and Jakeem Grant. Those guys don't get separation. Fitz would sling it to them anyway. It works well in the short term, but we've seen enough of the beautiful fitzmagic show to know that eventually it blows up in the teams face. I'm pretty confident Herbert would also have struggled compared to Fitz in that situation. 

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The Dolphins have to take a long hard look at Tua, the #3 pick and Watson. That's just due diligence. Their roster is strong enough that if they make the wrong choice here, they're staring down the barrel of perennial 6-10 to 9-7 QB purgatory. 

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