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Does Bill Gates have the answers? (To climate change) (1 Viewer)

I wouldn't put it past he and others like him.  Very smart people who have put their money to good causes and have seen that pay off for people.

Not sure anyone has all the answers...but maybe just enough to do some good.  And I have a ton of respect for Gates for all the work he has done with his money.

 
He was just on MSNBC and when asked about the Green New Deal, he said, very simply: “It won’t solve China and India”. 

He’s absolutely right. We are not going to solve this problem through tough restrictions and regulations, especially ones that other countries won’t follow. What we need is to provide technology that will be attractive to the world- like green cement. 

 
He was just on MSNBC and when asked about the Green New Deal, he said, very simply: “It won’t solve China and India”. 

He’s absolutely right. We are not going to solve this problem through tough restrictions and regulations, especially ones that other countries won’t follow. What we need is to provide technology that will be attractive to the world- like green cement. 
Don't you think that tough restrictions and regulations might create a greater incentive for American companies to develop those technologies?  And how about setting an example for the rest of the world?  I don't think these are mutually exclusive.

 
Bill Gates has been all over the news lately, talking about climate change, also the pandemic.
He's promoting his book.

I haven't read it. And I'm not a climate change expert.

But I am comfortable saying that Bill Gates is a smart and thoughtful person capable of understanding both (a) the science of climate change in particular, and (b) how it fits into the bigger picture more generally. (The latter is where he can add more value.)

Whatever he wrote in his book probably isn't stupid. If I were interested in understanding climate change a lot better, his book would be on my short list.

(He was also verifiably way ahead of the curve on the possibility of a global pandemic, and how we should have prepared for it back when preparation [rather than response] was the right word.)

 
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Don't you think that tough restrictions and regulations might create a greater incentive for American companies to develop those technologies?  And how about setting an example for the rest of the world?  I don't think these are mutually exclusive.
I don’t. 
First off I think a positive incentive (aka government investment) is always better than a negative one. Second I think attempts at restrictions will only result in politicians who oppose those restrictions (in this case conservatives) getting more votes, which moves us away from the goal, since they tend to oppose the large investment as well. 

 
Bill Gates is a smart guy but incredibly late to the party and his ideas are relatively superficial. The person to study is Amory Lovins, who pioneered the "soft energy path" back in the 70's.

Lovins doesn't just give interviews but has actually been on-the-ground working with utilities, gov'ts (including China and India) and private industry for 45 years as head of Rocky Mountain Institute.

...RMI decarbonizes energy systems through rapid, market-based change in the world’s most critical geographies to align with a 1.5°C future and address the climate crisis. We work with businesses, policymakers, communities and other organizations to identify and scale energy system interventions that will cut greenhouse gas emissions at least 50% by 2030.

...main recent efforts include supporting RMI’s collaborative synthesis, for China’s National Development and Reform Commission, of an ambitious efficiency-and-renewables trajectory that informed the 13th Five Year Plan

https://rmi.org/about/

 
Bill Gates is a smart guy but incredibly late to the party and his ideas are relatively superficial. The person to study is Amory Lovins, who pioneered the "soft energy path" back in the 70's.

Lovins doesn't just give interviews but has actually been on-the-ground working with utilities, gov'ts (including China and India) and private industry for 45 years as head of Rocky Mountain Institute.

...RMI decarbonizes energy systems through rapid, market-based change in the world’s most critical geographies to align with a 1.5°C future and address the climate crisis. We work with businesses, policymakers, communities and other organizations to identify and scale energy system interventions that will cut greenhouse gas emissions at least 50% by 2030.

...main recent efforts include supporting RMI’s collaborative synthesis, for China’s National Development and Reform Commission, of an ambitious efficiency-and-renewables trajectory that informed the 13th Five Year Plan

https://rmi.org/about/
Thanks. 

 
Don't you think that tough restrictions and regulations might create a greater incentive for American companies to develop those technologies?  
Gates is obviously right that the US can't solve climate change all by itself through carbon taxation (or whatever).  But carbon taxation provides a good incentive for companies to invest in green energy, which speeds up the pace of technological innovation, and that technological innovation is going to be the thing we really need to fix this.  We're already seeing that to some degree with solar and other renewables which have come a long way over the past couple of decades.  I'd be in favor of policies that further incentivize this sort of thing.

 
Gates is obviously right that the US can't solve climate change all by itself through carbon taxation (or whatever).  But carbon taxation provides a good incentive for companies to invest in green energy, which speeds up the pace of technological innovation, and that technological innovation is going to be the thing we really need to fix this.  We're already seeing that to some degree with solar and other renewables which have come a long way over the past couple of decades.  I'd be in favor of policies that further incentivize this sort of thing.
I don’t understand why we need to go through the process of trying to incentivize companies. It’s already too late for that IMO. Why not just spend the money? 
When we were planing to send men to the moon, we didn’t place restrictions or taxes on aerospace companies in order to incentivize them to come up with a way to do it. We hired them, gave them the money they needed, and said “find a way.” 

 
I don’t understand why we need to go through the process of trying to incentivize companies. It’s already too late for that IMO. Why not just spend the money? 
When we were planing to send men to the moon, we didn’t place restrictions or taxes on aerospace companies in order to incentivize them to come up with a way to do it. We hired them, gave them the money they needed, and said “find a way.” 
Because the government doesn't do basic science (not directly anyway) and it doesn't build electric cars, solar panels, batteries, turbines, or any of the other stuff we need to generate electricity.  There is no NASA here.

 
Because the government doesn't do basic science (not directly anyway) and it doesn't build electric cars, solar panels, batteries, turbines, or any of the other stuff we need to generate electricity.  There is no NASA here.
But there should be. That’s my point. 
We need a NASA. Kerry is a good start but we need a government entity like NASA or the Manhattan Project. 

 
But there should be. That’s my point. 
We need a NASA. Kerry is a good start but we need a government entity like NASA or the Manhattan Project. 
Yeah, I'll take a hard pass on this one.  These two examples don't fit the climate change issue for two reasons.  First, NASA and the Manhattan Project were both tasked with solving super-specific problems: putting a guy on the moon and building atomic weapons.  There's no good analogy here with regard to climate change.  We already know how to build nuclear plants, wind turbines, solar panels, and so on.  What we need is more widespread adoption throughout the economy and broad-based technological improvements across the board.  That's a totally different problem than the moon landing.  Second, NASA and the Manhattan Project both addressed issues that would never be addressed by the free market.  The market never cared about putting people on the moon, and national defense is a textbook "public goods" problem that requires government to produce.  Climate change requires innovation throughout the economy, and private firms are really good at responding to signals that crop up through the price mechanism.  

Edit: I would have been against this sort of thing anyway, but I also think this is a lesson that should have been reinforced during the pandemic.  Private firms created covid vaccines literally over a weekend before any cases had arrived in the US.  The relevant NASA-like arms of government -- the CDC and FDA -- screwed up testing, lied about masks, blocked the importation of masks, and slow-walked vaccine approval.  I truly expect that nationalizing our response to climate change will make the problem worse, not better.

 
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Because the government doesn't do basic science (not directly anyway) and it doesn't build electric cars, solar panels, batteries, turbines, or any of the other stuff we need to generate electricity.  There is no NASA here.
This is not just true. NREL has been doing basic renewable energy science and research for 40 years. It has labs that collaborate with private industry to test and get pilot projects off the ground. The DOE also has a program called I-Corps that pairs DOE lab researchers (e.g. Lawrence Livermore) with private industry to commercialize research spawned in the labs.

The primary problem is funding to de-risk projects through the "valley of death" and a coherent national policy framework.

https://www.nrel.gov/

 
DOE I-Corps program...

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) invests millions of dollars every year in the U.S. national laboratories, yet without industry engagement and a business mindset at the labs, that investment has limited economic return.

Energy I-Corps, a key initiative of the Office of Technology Transitions, pairs teams of researchers with industry mentors for an intensive two-month training where the researchers define technology value propositions, conduct customer discovery interviews, and develop viable market pathways for their technologies. Researchers return to the lab with a framework for industry engagement to guide future research and inform a culture of market awareness within the labs. In this way, Energy I-Corps is ensuring our investment in the national labs is maintaining and strengthening U.S. competitiveness long-term.

https://www.energy.gov/technologytransitions/energy-i-corps

 
This is not just true. NREL has been doing basic renewable energy science and research for 40 years. It has labs that collaborate with private industry to test and get pilot projects off the ground. The DOE also has a program called I-Corps that pairs DOE lab researchers (e.g. Lawrence Livermore) with private industry to commercialize research spawned in the labs.

The primary problem is funding to de-risk projects through the "valley of death" and a coherent national policy framework.

https://www.nrel.gov/
Yeah, I know there's a little bit of this sort of thing, but it mostly ends up routed through private industry or especially research universities.  That's what I was getting at with the "at least not directly" part.  If you include government grants and general government support for researchers, it provides quite a bit of funding for basic research, but the actual work mostly gets done elsewhere.  (And that system works great).

 
Does having billions of dollars make you automatically qualified to speak on topics out of your field of expertise?  Gates is a computer science guy who dropped out of college and started a wildly successful company at the right time when the industry was exploding.

Not sure why people like Gates, Zuckerberg, Winfrey or whoever is ultra wealthy opinions seem to  hold more weight.

 
Listening to him try and explain how he offsets his private jet carbon footprint reminds me of John Kerry and tells me everything I need to know.

 
No one...or at least very few people,  will ever take climate change seriously if it means they have to sacrifice...anything...that's the reality

People are inherently selfish and for the most part bad.....This isn't changing.  All in on telling how everyone ELSE should behave...especially corporations, but when it comes to sacrificing personally, nope....That's not happening.   I EARNED this SUV.   *I* worked HARD for it...I'm not giving it up now.

 
Yeah, I'll take a hard pass on this one.  These two examples don't fit the climate change issue for two reasons.  First, NASA and the Manhattan Project were both tasked with solving super-specific problems: putting a guy on the moon and building atomic weapons.  There's no good analogy here with regard to climate change.  We already know how to build nuclear plants, wind turbines, solar panels, and so on.  What we need is more widespread adoption throughout the economy and broad-based technological improvements across the board.  That's a totally different problem than the moon landing.  Second, NASA and the Manhattan Project both addressed issues that would never be addressed by the free market.  The market never cared about putting people on the moon, and national defense is a textbook "public goods" problem that requires government to produce.  Climate change requires innovation throughout the economy, and private firms are really good at responding to signals that crop up through the price mechanism.  

Edit: I would have been against this sort of thing anyway, but I also think this is a lesson that should have been reinforced during the pandemic.  Private firms created covid vaccines literally over a weekend before any cases had arrived in the US.  The relevant NASA-like arms of government -- the CDC and FDA -- screwed up testing, lied about masks, blocked the importation of masks, and slow-walked vaccine approval.  I truly expect that nationalizing our response to climate change will make the problem worse, not better.
I'm in this boat but willing to be convinced otherwise. I just don't have confidence in our government being able to manage something this large & far reaching without gumming it up and inflating the costs exponentially.

I also need to understand this whole push to "green" energy wind/solar without the government subsidies. I'd also like someone to explain how the electric push is going to end up not doing more harm to the environment given current technologies? I honestly don't know and am asking.

 
And how about setting an example for the rest of the world? 
Just to flesh this out a little, if we want to have any moral authority to try to convince China or India to modify their conduct, maybe we shouldn't be emitting more than twice as much as they are per capita.  Maybe we shouldn't have a country where everybody has two SUVs parked in the garage of their McMansions.  The U.S. is not currently in a position where it can lead any sort of global movement to address climate change.  It would be like China trying to lead the world on human rights.  

 
I also need to understand this whole push to "green" energy wind/solar without the government subsidies. I'd also like someone to explain how the electric push is going to end up not doing more harm to the environment given current technologies? I honestly don't know and am asking.
NREL and others have already studied this with exhaustive life cycle analyses of all technologies...obviously renewables have a non-zero environmental footprint...but media and opposing interests predictably seize on relatively minor impacts (e.g. birds in windmills, anyone?), then amplify them as part of misinformation PR campaigns.

Classic and predictable behavior from the status quo whenever anyone pursues change.

Total life cycle GHG emissions from renewables and nuclear energy are much lower and generally less variable than those from fossil fuels. For example, from cradle to grave, coal-fired electricity releases about 20 times more GHGs per kilowatt-hour than solar, wind, and nuclear electricity (based on median estimates for each technology)

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/57187.pdf

https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/life-cycle-assessment.html#:~:text=The data showed that life,by fossil fuel-based resources.

 
Edit: I would have been against this sort of thing anyway, but I also think this is a lesson that should have been reinforced during the pandemic.  Private firms created covid vaccines literally over a weekend before any cases had arrived in the US.  The relevant NASA-like arms of government -- the CDC and FDA -- screwed up testing, lied about masks, blocked the importation of masks, and slow-walked vaccine approval.  I truly expect that nationalizing our response to climate change will make the problem worse, not better.
What you're missing is that the electric utility industry is already effectively nationalized through the regulated monopoly...which is why they need to be the primary catalyst in a transition....they control the entire market structure....moving to a true clean, distributed energy infrastructure would in myriad ways help move away from the current regulatory stranglehold better incorporate free market principles (e.g. real-time pricing, customer choice) and democratize the grid (e.g. distributed sources).

 
But few people realize that the change from fossil fuels to renewable sources is just a harbinger for a phase of massive disruption in energy markets. The disruption will remake how the energy system serves its users and offer unprecedented choices for customers. It may go further than choice.  As the energy system shifts away from the outdated utility monopoly model, the four Ds of energy democracy — distributed power, decentralization, democracy from ownership, and disruptive technology — have the potential to put those users in charge and allow them to reap the economic benefits.

https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/solar/energy-democracy-in-4-powerful-steps/#gref

 
Just to flesh this out a little, if we want to have any moral authority to try to convince China or India to modify their conduct, maybe we shouldn't be emitting more than twice as much as they are per capita.  Maybe we shouldn't have a country where everybody has two SUVs parked in the garage of their McMansions.  The U.S. is not currently in a position where it can lead any sort of global movement to address climate change.  It would be like China trying to lead the world on human rights.  
Do you have 2 SUVs or live in a mansion?  I don`t.

 
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Second, NASA and the Manhattan Project both addressed issues that would never be addressed by the free market.  The market never cared about putting people on the moon, and national defense is a textbook "public goods" problem that requires government to produce.
I would say that carbon-sequestration technology is a public good. Figuring out how to make a giant robot that pulls carbon-dioxide from the air and buries it in the soil would be great, but there may not be much private demand for it.

 
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Does having billions of dollars make you automatically qualified to speak on topics out of your field of expertise?
Does it make you automatically disqualified?

I'd say that climate science is probably one of Gates's fields of expertise at this point. But I'll defer to the other experts in that field who comment on his book. If they all say it's bad, I'll believe them.

 
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NREL and others have already studied this with exhaustive life cycle analyses of all technologies...obviously renewables have a non-zero environmental footprint...but media and opposing interests predictably seize on relatively minor impacts (e.g. birds in windmills, anyone?), then amplify them as part of misinformation PR campaigns.

Classic and predictable behavior from the status quo whenever anyone pursues change.

Total life cycle GHG emissions from renewables and nuclear energy are much lower and generally less variable than those from fossil fuels. For example, from cradle to grave, coal-fired electricity releases about 20 times more GHGs per kilowatt-hour than solar, wind, and nuclear electricity (based on median estimates for each technology)

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/57187.pdf

https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/life-cycle-assessment.html#:~:text=The data showed that life,by fossil fuel-based resources.
Thanks for the info  :thumbup:

I don't lose sleep over birds and wind turbines. I do question the sustainability of these when I see graveyards of outdated wind turbines and fields of them not being utilized because maintenance isn't being done on them but again, I'm not educated on the subject so willing to listen to all sides.

I'm glad you brought nuclear into the discussion. I feel like this is the true path forward for large scale energy needs but I also see it as the path of most resistance. The last reactor commissioned in the US was 2016, construction started in 1973 with the first unit coming on line in 1996 and this last one coming on line in 2016. That's a crazy long runway.

 
Thanks for the info  :thumbup:

I don't lose sleep over birds and wind turbines. I do question the sustainability of these when I see graveyards of outdated wind turbines and fields of them not being utilized because maintenance isn't being done on them but again, I'm not educated on the subject so willing to listen to all sides.

I'm glad you brought nuclear into the discussion. I feel like this is the true path forward for large scale energy needs but I also see it as the path of most resistance. The last reactor commissioned in the US was 2016, construction started in 1973 with the first unit coming on line in 1996 and this last one coming on line in 2016. That's a crazy long runway.
No worries. If you want nuclear it is going to have to be newly designed Small Modular Reactors ("SMR's"). Path of least resistance for SMR's will be as a complement to renewables, not a replacement. WSJ recently had expanded article...paywall but here are some excerpts.

* The high cost of building and maintaining conventional reactors has stymied the development of new nuclear power plants since the 1980s 

* SMRs would produce up to 300 megawatts of power, compared with more than 1,000 megawatts for some big power plants now in operation. But because the devices are inherently modular—many of their components can be mass-produced in factories rather than being constructed on site—SMRs could be combined in increments to boost capacity.

* SMRs, that can be housed in compact containment structures and operate safely with less shielding and oversight. SMRs could allow power plants to shed their huge hourglass-shaped cooling towers and, in some designs, the reactors would be immersed in water to prevent overheating.

* Last fall, the Energy Department awarded $210 million to 10 projects to develop technologies for SMRs and beyond, as part of its Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program. The agency had already awarded $400 million to various projects since 2014 “to accelerate the development and deployment of SMRs,”

* In September, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the first time issued a final safety evaluation report on a SMR—a critical step before a design can be approved—to NuScale.

* Dozens of SMR initiatives are at various stages of development around the world, according to the World Nuclear Association. Potential buyers range from U.S. utilities trying to phase out coal-fired generators to Eastern European countries seeking energy independence.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mini-nuclear-reactors-offer-promise-of-cheaper-clean-power-11613055608

 
The answer is it's already too late.  Arm yourself because it's only going to get worse as resources continue to disappear.    

 
Figuring out renewable tech is the future and unlimited money will be made by those who figure it out. 

US should have a Manhattan Project style commitment to be the country to get there first. 

 
he might have some ideas on how to stop pollution, but this earth has radically climate changed for tens of thousands of years ........ he's not going to impact that at all

 
We got some potentially terrific news on the climate change front yesterday. One of the fears about climate change is that it will increase the area that is hospitable to malaria-carrying mosquitos.

Yesterday, a promising development in the effort to produce a malaria vaccine was announced.
Jesuits bark? 

 

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