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*****Official 2022 Senate Elections Thread***** (1 Viewer)

squistion

squistion

Footballguy
Looks like Purdue won't be facing Warnock after all.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-23/former-senator-perdue-won-t-run-against-warnock-in-georgia

Former Senator Perdue Won’t Run Against Warnock in Georgia

Former Republican Senator David Perdue has decided not to run again next year against freshman Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock in Georgia as the parties vie for control of the narrowly split Senate.

Perdue, 71, had filed a statement of candidacy last week with the Federal Election Commission to challenge Warnock, 51, in the 2022 election, but announced Tuesday he and his wife, Bonnie, had decided against the effort.

“This is a personal decision, not a political one. I am confident that whoever wins the Republican primary next year will defeat the Democrat candidate in the general election for this seat, and I will do everything I can to make that happen,” he said.

 
The Supreme Court may very well uphold the Mississippi abortion law; if so, that decision will come next summer. 

I’m thinking that if that happens, there will be a backlash of major proportions that will show up in the 2022 elections. 

 
timschochet said:
The Supreme Court may very well uphold the Mississippi abortion law; if so, that decision will come next summer. 

I’m thinking that if that happens, there will be a backlash of major proportions that will show up in the 2022 elections. 
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Will be great for fund raising after the void Trump left.

 
lazyike said:
That could interesting. Get the blue vote and some Republican votes who are sick of Trump and/or Lee.
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Interesting indeed. A Democratic candidate wouldn't have stood a chance anyway.

And for what it is worth, McMullin did receive 21.54% of the state's popular vote in his 2016 3rd Party run behind both Donald Trump (who received 45.54% and the state's six electoral votes) and Hillary Clinton (who received 27.46%).

So he has a shot. It will be fun to see how this plays out.   :popcorn:

 
Would be great if McMullin won, but I’m assuming he’d still caucus with Republicans so it wouldn’t matter for which party controls the Senate.

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
Would be great if McMullin won, but I’m assuming he’d still caucus with Republicans so it wouldn’t matter for which party controls the Senate.
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Probably would think like Sen Manchin but who wouldn’t that be considerably better than Sen Lee ?And someone who definitely wouldn’t brown nose Trump.

 
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Snotbubbles said:
From his ads, he sounds like a great guy.  I don't know what his platform is, but his past history is impressive.
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He is generally progressive I believe but not straight across the board on all issues.

He will have mass appeal to many people I think, even those outside his political views. Has the everyman quality, is very practical in his approach to issues when I have heard him speak, and is plain spoken.

He's a lock for the Dem nom and I think will take down whoever the Republicans get despite strong headwinds. 

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
Seems like he’s a lock to win the Dem nomination right now.  No idea what the polling looks like for the general.
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Think it's so early anything at this point is not worth really following. 

I believe the Republicans are going to have a Dr Oz from TV (yes I just wrote that) or a former CEO hedgefund guy. 

Fettermen is the perfect candidate to put up against those guys. Gonna be a brutal November for Dem candidates but this guy is going to win.

 
Fetterman is doing a tremendous job working the state's red middle. Today he is making campaign stops in five small towns roughly encircling Williamsport (north-central PA for you foreigners).

I don't know if there's any way to determine if that's the best strategy or not but og bless him for the effort.

 
Jim Lamon taking the lead as the GOP candidate in AZ.  Who ever gets the GOP nomination should have little problem defeating Kelly.

 
roadkill1292 said:
Fetterman is doing a tremendous job working the state's red middle. Today he is making campaign stops in five small towns roughly encircling Williamsport (north-central PA for you foreigners).
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Oh man. Hope he's ok.

 
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Early unconfirmed reports are that Fetterman won all 67 counties. I think he's got a pretty good chance of flipping that seat even in a national climate that's arrayed in favor of the GOP.

 
In an increasingly nationalized political climate, candidates matter less and less. In that context, it would be unusual for Dems to pick up a PA Senate seat in what looks to be a strong GOP year. However, there are some extenuating factors that may help Fetterman. The most important is that he's pretty unique and tough to pigeonhole. He's Bernie-esque on some issues, but he looks a lot more like a Trump kind of guy and I think it will be hard to define him as some sort of effete socialist. Neither of the two potential GOP nominees seem particularly strong. And the Dems also got the match-up they wanted in the governor's race (hard to imagine those two races go in different directions).

The base-case scenario is still that this is a purple state in a GOP-lean environment, so certainly nothing's guaranteed, but given that background, it's shaping up to be about the best-case scenario Dems could have hoped for (short of a true nut-job like Barnette winning the primary).

 
CletiusMaximus said:
According to Kornacki, PA is still counting GOP mail in ballots, some of which arrived just YESTERDAY!  Mules everywhere - clear and obvious fraud. Bring on the Cyberninjas, bring on Dinesh. 

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1526929358409146368
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Yes it is ironic, isn't it?

The one thing I kind of take issue with in that twitter thread is referring to Allegheny county as McCormick's home county.  The dude was born in Washington county, went to school in Columbia County and while he worked in Pittsburgh for much of his career he hasn't lived in Pennsylvania for more than 20 years.    He may well win Allegheny county but I don't know if calling it his home county is very accurate.

 
I realize that this is the Senate elections thread but the gubernatorial race in PA will be really important on a national level, too. This Mastriano guy is an election denier and he'll have a compliant legislature to help him overturn the metro vote totals in '24.

I'd feel a lot better about Fetterman and Shapiro (the Dem candidate for governor) if not for the traditionally hostile midterm environmental.

 
ignatiusjreilly said:
In an increasingly nationalized political climate, candidates matter less and less. In that context, it would be unusual for Dems to pick up a PA Senate seat in what looks to be a strong GOP year. However, there are some extenuating factors that may help Fetterman. The most important is that he's pretty unique and tough to pigeonhole. He's Bernie-esque on some issues, but he looks a lot more like a Trump kind of guy and I think it will be hard to define him as some sort of effete socialist. Neither of the two potential GOP nominees seem particularly strong. And the Dems also got the match-up they wanted in the governor's race (hard to imagine those two races go in different directions).

The base-case scenario is still that this is a purple state in a GOP-lean environment, so certainly nothing's guaranteed, but given that background, it's shaping up to be about the best-case scenario Dems could have hoped for (short of a true nut-job like Barnette winning the primary).
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He's going to get killed in the middle part of the state.  Anti-fracking (big in PA), no-limit on abortion stance and the Biden malaise combined with him being a Western PA guy, he's not going to motivate the Philly and suburban Philly voters to come out in droves to vote for him which he'll need.    

 
Snotbubbles said:
He's going to get killed in the middle part of the state.  Anti-fracking (big in PA), no-limit on abortion stance and the Biden malaise combined with him being a Western PA guy, he's not going to motivate the Philly and suburban Philly voters to come out in droves to vote for him which he'll need.    
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I had read Fetterman was open to fracking in the near term. 

I don’t know the Republican candidates at all but have heard this guy quite a bit and believe he will appeal to rural folks as much as Dr Oz or the Hedgefund guy.

I agree Fetterman may have trouble energizing the Philly vote.

 
The General said:
I had read Fetterman was open to fracking in the near term. 

I don’t know the Republican candidates at all but have heard this guy quite a bit and believe he will appeal to rural folks as much as Dr Oz or the Hedgefund guy.

I agree Fetterman may have trouble energizing the Philly vote.
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He wants what he called a "de facto moratorium" on fracking to move to green energy.  So if he had his way he'd tax frackers into oblivion in an attempt to kill the industry while saying he's not against fracking.  Kind of like the current President and the oil industry.     

 
Snotbubbles said:
He's going to get killed in the middle part of the state.  Anti-fracking (big in PA), no-limit on abortion stance and the Biden malaise combined with him being a Western PA guy, he's not going to motivate the Philly and suburban Philly voters to come out in droves to vote for him which he'll need.    
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Could certainly happen. The most interesting dynamic will be how Fetterman does overall as a candidate. He seems like the DJax of politics: high ceiling, very low floor.

How do you think the governor's race will impact the Senate race (or vice versa)? I feel like it's unlikely we get a split decision; that rarely happens in swing states with two open-seat elections. Mastriano's pretty far out there, and I think it's inevitable that he'll say a few more controversial things before breakfast today by November that will put the GOP Senate nominee in an uncomfortable position.

Then again, it could work the opposite way. If this turns out to be a God-awful year for the Dems, the Senate nominee could drag Mastriano across the finish line.

 
ignatiusjreilly said:
Could certainly happen. The most interesting dynamic will be how Fetterman does overall as a candidate. He seems like the DJax of politics: high ceiling, very low floor.

How do you think the governor's race will impact the Senate race (or vice versa)? I feel like it's unlikely we get a split decision; that rarely happens in swing states with two open-seat elections. Mastriano's pretty far out there, and I think it's inevitable that he'll say a few more controversial things before breakfast today by November that will put the GOP Senate nominee in an uncomfortable position.

Then again, it could work the opposite way. If this turns out to be a God-awful year for the Dems, the Senate nominee could drag Mastriano across the finish line.
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It all comes down to Philadelphia.  Fetterman will have to win there by about 500,000 votes otherwise he's toast.  

 
Snotbubbles said:
He wants what he called a "de facto moratorium" on fracking to move to green energy.  So if he had his way he'd tax frackers into oblivion in an attempt to kill the industry while saying he's not against fracking.  Kind of like the current President and the oil industry.     
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He’ll have to be pretty nuanced on that issue with a simple message. I’m sure that will be a main point brought up by the Republican. All part of the game. 

As an aside I’m kind of for that plan depending on what “taxing into oblivion” means. 

 
massraider said:
https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/pa-senate-gop-primary-could-be-headed-fox-fueled-election-theft-allegation-chaos 

Go get em, Pennsylvania
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Such a shame so many people buy into this, or are willing to bypass democracy for "their guy".

As the midterm elections approach, Trump and Hannity have learned to expect no negative consequences for convincing their fans to believe outlandish lies about rigged elections. Trump remains the head of the Republican Party, while Hannity retains his dual role at Fox and as a GOP operative. Their impulse to treat any electoral defeat as fraudulent now risks chaos for the GOP in Pennsylvania and on Fox’s airwaves – and sets the stage for a similar, dangerous play for the White House in 2024.

 
The General said:
He’ll have to be pretty nuanced on that issue with a simple message. I’m sure that will be a main point brought up by the Republican. All part of the game. 

As an aside I’m kind of for that plan depending on what “taxing into oblivion” means. 
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Ha.  See the Canadian Marijuana Market for an example.  The companies can't turn a profit because the costs of production, taxes and other overhead have made it difficult to stay in business (in addition to the fact that most a poorly run).  

 
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