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3 hours ago, shader said:

Any lawyerguys want to help me out? 

Long story short:

In 2019, my AGI was under the limit.

In 2020, my AGI is OVER the limit.

Like an idiot I filed, because I heard that it's important to file early this year and because literally the day after I filed the Senate jacked with the earnings.  Am I screwed from getting the stimulus?  

Here's the senate version of the bill 

https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/American Rescue Plan Act SENATE.pdf

If you go down to page 350, that's where it starts.  The section I can't figure out starts on page 352 and continues onto page 353.  Basically, will they take the 2019 OR 2020 return, or am I just screwed merely because I filed?

The last stimulus was phased out...it wasn't a hard cut off.  I don't know what this one does.  If it's a hard cut off and not phased out, then you might be screwed, otherwise as long as it's pretty close to what it was, just over, then you're likely to get at least part of it....plus the money for children.  Those dollars are there regardless of income I believe but I could be wrong on that.  Haven't read the bill yet as it keeps jumping back and forth for revisions.

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I call  on all the anectdotes from far right leaning folks who know someone's cousin or sister or grandmother that got three mail in ballots and 2 checks and all that jazz.

90% of congress probably doesnt either.

Exactly Dems ran on “people are hurting, people need stimulus checks, kids are hungry...!!!!!!!!” Now they’re adding their pet projects and it’s March and these people that needed and were p

3 hours ago, Stealthycat said:

what were the voting counts on the first two bills ? 

wasn't the first two bi-artisan and passed with all Dems and Rep's voting in favor ?

but this one was party lines - the Democrats forced it through with the numbers - this is all on them 

 

Interesting take. Democrats vote for a republican bill yet no republicans vote for a democartic bill and it is somehow all on the democrats? :loco:

 

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4 hours ago, Stealthycat said:

what were the voting counts on the first two bills ? 

wasn't the first two bi-artisan and passed with all Dems and Rep's voting in favor ?

but this one was party lines - the Democrats forced it through with the numbers - this is all on them 

 

All on who?

Edited by The General
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4 hours ago, shader said:

Any lawyerguys want to help me out? 

Long story short:

In 2019, my AGI was under the limit.

In 2020, my AGI is OVER the limit.

Like an idiot I filed, because I heard that it's important to file early this year and because literally the day after I filed the Senate jacked with the earnings.  Am I screwed from getting the stimulus?  

Here's the senate version of the bill 

https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/American Rescue Plan Act SENATE.pdf

If you go down to page 350, that's where it starts.  The section I can't figure out starts on page 352 and continues onto page 353.  Basically, will they take the 2019 OR 2020 return, or am I just screwed merely because I filed?

I think you're screwed for the next stimulus.  But it's of little matter, you probably would have had to pay back any stimulus in your 2021 returns if you received a stimulus from using 2019 returns and you didn't qualify from your 2020 earnings.

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In reading, it appears people will be able to use either their 2019 or 2020 returns...not sure how accurate that is...seems like a guess, but I think it's good that they'd allow 2020 returns to be used given the impacts to so many.  Doesn't make sense to limit it to the 2019 returns only.

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Does anybody know how this child care credit works? If you have a kid under 5...Does it reduce your taxable income? Say for simplicity you made 100 on the year...does it bring your taxable income down to 98,400?
 

Or if you owe 5000 after you’ve done your taxes does it reduce it down to 3400?

 

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If you are married, filing jointly and have kids but the AGI is above the max, do you still get the child credit?  I thought you got bupkis.  I'm OK with that since I have a good job and don't NEED the money like many others, but I'd still like to know.

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3 minutes ago, Philo Beddoe said:

That's paid leave, not some sort of bonus they would get.  Plus, their kids would have to be learning from home to qualify.  Not sure if this carve-out is back looking (doubt it), so we're talking about kids not in-person from the date the law goes into effect.  How many federal employees would qualify?  How many would take paid leave (considering it's capped at $35/hour, or $70k/year annual salary)?

I'm not saying it's not a specific carve out for federal employees.  It absolutely is.  I'm not even saying it's the right thing to do, but I think the context should be known, not just the headline. (FYI, I'm not a federal worker).

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17 hours ago, The Commish said:

In reading, it appears people will be able to use either their 2019 or 2020 returns...not sure how accurate that is...seems like a guess, but I think it's good that they'd allow 2020 returns to be used given the impacts to so many.  Doesn't make sense to limit it to the 2019 returns only.

In my 2019 returns I didn't qualify for a stimulus.  I did for 2020 and when I filed my returns was able to claim the stimulus credits (think it ended up being $1800).  

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33 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

That's paid leave, not some sort of bonus they would get.  Plus, their kids would have to be learning from home to qualify.  Not sure if this carve-out is back looking (doubt it), so we're talking about kids not in-person from the date the law goes into effect.  How many federal employees would qualify?  How many would take paid leave (considering it's capped at $35/hour, or $70k/year annual salary)?

I'm not saying it's not a specific carve out for federal employees.  It absolutely is.  I'm not even saying it's the right thing to do, but I think the context should be known, not just the headline. (FYI, I'm not a federal worker).

My wife is a nurse, her hospital had a COVID fund that covered 2 weeks of COVID pay if the employee was out sick with COVID or COVID-related issues (hospital had policy that employees were on a mandatory 10 day quarantine with COVID symptoms even if they had a negative test).  After the 2 weeks, employees were required to use up their vacation and personal time and then go  without pay after that was exhausted.  Pretty crappy way to treat a front-line worker.    

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19 hours ago, dawgtrails said:

Interesting take. Democrats vote for a republican bill yet no republicans vote for a democartic bill and it is somehow all on the democrats? :loco:

 

I think this is a good bill and I expect good things to happen because of it. And I think that in 2022 the public will remember that it was all on Democrats. 

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1 hour ago, Snotbubbles said:

My wife is a nurse, her hospital had a COVID fund that covered 2 weeks of COVID pay if the employee was out sick with COVID or COVID-related issues (hospital had policy that employees were on a mandatory 10 day quarantine with COVID symptoms even if they had a negative test).  After the 2 weeks, employees were required to use up their vacation and personal time and then go  without pay after that was exhausted.  Pretty crappy way to treat a front-line worker.    

Is she in a union?

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

I think this is a good bill and I expect good things to happen because of it. And I think that in 2022 the public will remember that it was all on Democrats. 

General public only cares about getting $1400.  I haven't read the Bill yet, but if the Republican's are correct that only 10% of the $1.9T is for emergency COVID relief, then my initial response is that it is not a good Bill.  I'll reserve judgment until I see what's actually in the passed Bill.   

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1 hour ago, Snotbubbles said:

but if the Republican's are correct that only 10% of the $1.9T is for emergency COVID relief, 

22% of the bill is just in the stimulus checks. So the 10% is wrong unless you don't think the stimulus checks are for Covid relief. 

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2 hours ago, timschochet said:

I think this is a good bill and I expect good things to happen because of it. And I think that in 2022 the public will remember that it was all on Democrats. 

There has been $5 trillion created completely out of thin air in the past year. Plus another $2 trillion or so coming soon for "infrastructure." Just think about those insane numbers...

Once that money gets fully into circulation following re-opening you're going to have major inflationary pressures in the next 12-18 months. And if the unemployment rate remains high it sets up perfectly for 1970's style stagflation.

That's going to be the narrative in 2022. And, if so, the public will trace it all back to excessive stimulus and blame the party currently in power.

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32 minutes ago, Mile High said:

22% of the bill is just in the stimulus checks. So the 10% is wrong unless you don't think the stimulus checks are for Covid relief. 

Not really, but you could argue that anything qualifies as COVID emergency relief.  

ETA: There was a study on how people used their stimulus checks.  Enough people were just investing them that they had discussions about lower the limits of who would apply.  Then you have people like me who haven't missed a paycheck in 2020 who are eligible for stimulus but are using it to either pay a bill or pump it back in the economy.  Who really needs a stimulus check because of COVID, people who are unemployed or underemployed, anyone else.  There is a separate provision for unemployment add-ons so you're left with people who have been unemployed and no longer eligible for unemployment and those that are under employed.  That's a fraction of that 22%.

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3 hours ago, Stoneworker said:

There has been $5 trillion created completely out of thin air in the past year. Plus another $2 trillion or so coming soon for "infrastructure." Just think about those insane numbers...

Once that money gets fully into circulation following re-opening you're going to have major inflationary pressures in the next 12-18 months. And if the unemployment rate remains high it sets up perfectly for 1970's style stagflation.

That's going to be the narrative in 2022. And, if so, the public will trace it all back to excessive stimulus and blame the party currently in power.

Wow. I couldn’t disagree more with this. I think that in 2022 the stimulus will be even more popular than it is now. 

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11 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Wow. I couldn’t disagree more with this. I think that in 2022 the stimulus will be even more popular than it is now. 

Lol. If there's never any negative future ramifications to creating money out of thin air and throwing it out of an airplane window...then if course it will always be wildly popular. That's a fantasy, however.

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1 minute ago, Stoneworker said:

Lol. If there's never any negative future ramifications to creating money out of thin air and throwing it out of an airplane window...then if course it will always be wildly popular. That's a fantasy, however.

I don’t think your inflation scenario is going to happen because so much spending has shut down over the last year or so. Any new spending that comes out of this bill will only return things back to normal. A few economists share your fears, but most don’t. 

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3 minutes ago, Stoneworker said:

Lol. If there's never any negative future ramifications to creating money out of thin air and throwing it out of an airplane window...then if course it will always be wildly popular. That's a fantasy, however.

I also don’t think that it’s a winning argument for conservatives to say “this is a bad idea but the public is too stupid and greedy to realize it.” I wouldn’t expect this sort of argument to win a whole bunch of votes. 

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3 hours ago, Snotbubbles said:

Not really, but you could argue that anything qualifies as COVID emergency relief.  

ETA: There was a study on how people used their stimulus checks.  Enough people were just investing them that they had discussions about lower the limits of who would apply.  Then you have people like me who haven't missed a paycheck in 2020 who are eligible for stimulus but are using it to either pay a bill or pump it back in the economy.  Who really needs a stimulus check because of COVID, people who are unemployed or underemployed, anyone else.  There is a separate provision for unemployment add-ons so you're left with people who have been unemployed and no longer eligible for unemployment and those that are under employed.  That's a fraction of that 22%.

I still haven't seen anyone explain where this only 9% is Covid Relief number comes from.

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4 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I don’t think your inflation scenario is going to happen because so much spending has shut down over the last year or so. Any new spending that comes out of this bill will only return things back to normal. A few economists share your fears, but most don’t. 

Keep trying. "A few economists"...you mean like The Federal Reserve Bank of New York?

Median year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 3.1% in February...The one-year-ahead measure is now at its highest level since July 2014.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2021/20210308

 

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8 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I also don’t think that it’s a winning argument for conservatives to say “this is a bad idea but the public is too stupid and greedy to realize it.” I wouldn’t expect this sort of argument to win a whole bunch of votes. 

The public has no clue what's contained in the stimulus package. Just like most people in this forum.

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14 minutes ago, The General said:

I still haven't seen anyone explain where this only 9% is Covid Relief number comes from.

It's in reference to the $160B directly related to vaccination rollout, etc. Stimulus checks are roughly 25%. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Stoneworker said:

It's in reference to the $160B directly related to vaccination rollout, etc. Stimulus checks are roughly 25%. 

That's a crazy narrow definition and to me is obvious partisanship. 

There's a whole lot in there that is related to getting us through this that should be considered Covid Relief.

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20 minutes ago, Stoneworker said:

Keep trying. "A few economists"...you mean like The Federal Reserve Bank of New York?

Median year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 3.1% in February...The one-year-ahead measure is now at its highest level since July 2014.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2021/20210308

 

It’s still only slightly over what it was projected before. If economic growth rebounds as most expect it will nobody is really going to notice the increases. 

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1 minute ago, The General said:

That's a crazy narrow definition and to me is obvious partisanship. 

There's a whole lot in there that is related to getting us through this that should be considered Covid Relief.

I agree with the first part. What's controversial are things like the state/local bailouts, child tax credit, etc. Plus there's an entire roughly $200B allocated to "other policy changes" that's a black box.

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2 minutes ago, The General said:

That's a crazy narrow definition and to me is obvious partisanship. 

There's a whole lot in there that is related to getting us through this that should be considered Covid Relief.

Exactly. The checks are also due to covid. As is the money for school reopenings. As well as the aid to the states, and the extension of unemployment benefits, And the contact tracing, etc. etc

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2 minutes ago, timschochet said:

It’s still only slightly over what it was projected before. If economic growth rebounds as most expect it will nobody is really going to notice the increases. 

Look at commodities. Corn futures up 67% in past year. Wheat up 25%. Copper 2x. The entire Bloomberg Commidity Index up almost 50% in the past year.

Ordinary people are going to notice when those increases flow through to consumer prices. Economic growth or no.

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13 minutes ago, Stoneworker said:

I agree with the first part. What's controversial are things like the state/local bailouts, child tax credit, etc. Plus there's an entire roughly $200B allocated to "other policy changes" that's a black box.

Those are when looked at at least policy debates and in this political climate would be ridiculous to debate their merits piecemeal. The Dems gave a similar Relief bill to Trump. The Dems had many similar issues, how the loans were to be handed out blank check style comes to mind. 

They passed that unanimously. They should be offered the same respect.

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4 hours ago, Stoneworker said:

What's controversial are things like the state/local bailouts,

Seriously don't even want to here any complaining from any state who for years haven' paid their way. 

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5 hours ago, Stoneworker said:

Look at commodities. Corn futures up 67% in past year. Wheat up 25%. Copper 2x. The entire Bloomberg Commidity Index up almost 50% in the past year.

Ordinary people are going to notice when those increases flow through to consumer prices. Economic growth or no.

The 10 year bond has been pricing this in as well.  The Fed has shown no appetite to raise rates but the market is obviously starting to factor in inflation risk.  It's not here yet in any meaningful way, but investors are obviously placing some money behind that possibility. 

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2 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

Better inflation than deflation, fellas.  Take that to the bank. 

There's no doubt of that, at least in moderation.  We've just had a remarkable run of time between now and the last time inflation was truly a problem.  At least IMO, that's always arbitrary.  Maybe 1980 and Jimmy Carter running for reelection?  I'm not a young guy and that's the first election I can remember as a child.

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5 hours ago, Stoneworker said:

Look at commodities. Corn futures up 67% in past year. Wheat up 25%. Copper 2x. The entire Bloomberg Commidity Index up almost 50% in the past year.

Ordinary people are going to notice when those increases flow through to consumer prices. Economic growth or no.

Commodities were also largely oversold the last few years.  Copper has supply/demand characteristics that make the rise organic.  Could also point out that gold/silver have regressed. 

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On 3/8/2021 at 3:33 PM, The Commish said:

In reading, it appears people will be able to use either their 2019 or 2020 returns...not sure how accurate that is...seems like a guess, but I think it's good that they'd allow 2020 returns to be used given the impacts to so many.  Doesn't make sense to limit it to the 2019 returns only.

So you’re saying the IRS will use the lowest of 2019 or 2020?

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9 hours ago, General Malaise said:

Tell you what old friends...find some helium related stocks and use your Biden money to load for bear.  Uncle GM has it on good authority that this is a commodity that is about to NOEXPLODE

How high is the float?

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On 3/8/2021 at 7:57 AM, Stealthycat said:

what were the voting counts on the first two bills ? 

wasn't the first two bi-artisan and passed with all Dems and Rep's voting in favor ?

but this one was party lines - the Democrats forced it through with the numbers - this is all on them 

 

What was the point you were trying to make here?

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4 minutes ago, The General said:

Dems passed the stimulus package.

Republicans in Congress talking about Mr Potato Head and Dr. Seuss  :lmao:

It’s a total disaster for Republicans. I suppose they can hope that @Stoneworkerwill be right and it will lead to inflation but to think that’s going to change public opinion, even if it happens, seems like really a long shot. 

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4 minutes ago, timschochet said:

It’s a total disaster for Republicans. I suppose they can hope that @Stoneworkerwill be right and it will lead to inflation but to think that’s going to change public opinion, even if it happens, seems like really a long shot. 

I assume they have ideas in place to deal with inflation later. We’ll see. Have heard this inflation talk for a long time, I guess we also haven’t injected cash into the system like this, but one issue at a time.

This money gets us through Covid quicker than it’s more than worth it as that is the most pressing issue - not inflation.

Republicans talking about Potato head though is so so bad. Their voters have to get pissed at some point.

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1 hour ago, shader said:

So you’re saying the IRS will use the lowest of 2019 or 2020?

Not at all....I'm not sure exactly how it'll work.  I suspect if they have your 2020 taxes, they'll use those.  If they don't, they'll use your 2019 but I haven't seen that anywhere officially.

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