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Florida vs California and the case for Ron DeSantis (1 Viewer)

timschochet

timschochet

Footballguy
I believe that Ron DeSantis is going to run for President in 2024, and I think he has a very good shot of being the Republican nominee. His campaign argument is going to be simple and straightforward: 

I kept things open in Florida during Covid and it worked out pretty well. 

Santis and his allies at Fox and right wing talk radio are already making this argument by drawing a comparison to California and Gavin Newsom. Its an effective, seemingly apples to apples comparison to make: both are heavily populated "sunshine states"; California shut down twice and continues to restrict capacity at restaurants, salons, gyms, etc; Florida has no such restrictions. California requires masks, Florida does not. In terms of symbolism (and symbolism, for political campaigns, is very important), California shut down Disneyland, Florida did NOT shut down Disneyworld. And the results are similar: Florida and California have suffered roughly the same percentage of Covid victims (around 10%). 

Now, this is not the only way of looking at this, and the Los Angeles Times makes an argument that, if California had followed the Florida model, 6,000 more Californians would have died. Conversely, if Florida had taken the steps that California did, 3,000 more lives would have saved. Here is the Los Angeles Times article: 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-09/florida-vs-california-who-had-better-covid-response%3f_amp=true

My question is, does DeSantis have a good case to make? And will he be successful in making it? (No I'm not asking at this point if he will be our next President, only if he will be successful in pursuing this argument.) 

 
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The comparisons are ridiculous and I've never understood them :shrug:  

Why is that?  Because there was no meaningful state leadership on this.  Almost every single aspect of this was left up to local municipalities.  DeSantis can claim the state was "open" because HE left most of those decisions to local counties and municipalities.  Many areas of this state took it upon themselves to do the right thing and initiate restrictions.  How they compare to California, I have no idea, because they really don't matter.  

 
The Commish said:
The comparisons are ridiculous and I've never understood them :shrug:  

Why is that?  Because there was no meaningful state leadership on this.  Almost every single aspect of this was left up to local municipalities.  DeSantis can claim the state was "open" because HE left most of those decisions to local counties and municipalities.  Many areas of this state took it upon themselves to do the right thing and initiate restrictions.  How they compare to California, I have no idea, because they really don't matter.  
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And, in a big ole reversal of that, many of California's counties and municipalities stayed somewhat open or didn't enforce closings and mask laws. There's never going to be any meaningful way to compare what the states did with respect to COVID.

 
rockaction said:
And, in a big ole reversal of that, many of California's counties and municipalities stayed somewhat open or didn't enforce closings and mask laws. There's never going to be any meaningful way to compare what the states did with respect to COVID.
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That’s very interesting. 
Yet I gotta tell you guys I started this thread for a reason: because I’m hearing it everywhere these days. My conservative friends are complaining about California and Newsom (he’s in serious trouble here) and pointing at DeSantis as a role model. A lot of folks I know with small businesses, who don’t normally ever discuss politics, are saying the same thing (complaining about Newsom and comparing us to Florida.) And it’s all over talk radio. 
 

My point is that even if there’s no way to do a comparison, people are making it, and here in California there is admiration for DeSantis. I’m definitely hearing it. 

 
timschochet said:
That’s very interesting. 
Yet I gotta tell you guys I started this thread for a reason: because I’m hearing it everywhere these days. My conservative friends are complaining about California and Newsom (he’s in serious trouble here) and pointing at DeSantis as a role model. A lot of folks I know with small businesses, who don’t normally ever discuss politics, are saying the same thing (complaining about Newsom and comparing us to Florida.) And it’s all over talk radio. 
 

My point is that even if there’s no way to do a comparison, people are making it, and here in California there is admiration for DeSantis. I’m definitely hearing it. 
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If ANYONE is using DeSantis as a role model, it's likely because they've only listened to his talking points and have no idea of the economic issues going on in this state right now.

 
Neither state did that well at all. The state of Washington did relatively well with their response. Most people don't use statistics to back up their "feelings" about it, they use talking points.

Statistics

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Neither state did that well at all. The state of Washington did relatively well with their response. Most people don't use statistics to back up their "feelings" about it, they use talking points.

Statistics
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Florida is 27th in death rate despite having lots of old people. Obviously "well" is subjective, but compared to other states, FL did better than most. 

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Neither state did that well at all. 
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This in itself is problematic to me. 
In order for nearly all of my assumptions about 2020 to be correct, communities that practiced mandatory mask wearing, social distancing, and limitations on indoor dining and gathering had to perform better than communities that did not practice these things. If that is not the case, then just about everything we’ve been told by public health experts was wrong. 
It’s vital to discover the truth here no matter what direction it leads us.  

 
timschochet said:
This in itself is problematic to me. 
In order for nearly all of my assumptions about 2020 to be correct, communities that practiced mandatory mask wearing, social distancing, and limitations on indoor dining and gathering had to perform better than communities that did not practice these things. If that is not the case, then just about everything we’ve been told by public health experts was wrong. 
It’s vital to discover the truth here no matter what direction it leads us.  
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The problem with this is that you need figure out how the populations behaved.   Florida was "wide open" doesn't mean that large portions of the population of a given community still practiced all of these things with the exceptions just being highly visible.  California being "shut down" doesn't mean that significant portions of the population of a given community still weren't defiant.  Whether or not there was a mask mandate doesn't necessarily help determine how the communities behaved.   The point of the mandate I would think is messaging, to reaffirm with the community that a mask is going to help slow the spread.  With or without a mandate what matters is how much the message was taken and put in practice. 

@The Commishkeeps telling us how hard the economic toil has been on Florida despite being "wide open".   I think that is reflective of significant numbers of people listening.   I wonder how many business failures are happening in Florida because the business tried to be open.  That is while being forced to be closed is terrible as their are those fixed costs that need to be paid regardless (ignoring availability of assistance) - like rent or mortgage payments that is only compounded if the costs to being open aren't covered by the sales of whatever service or product.  I think five years from now it will be interesting to see in aggregate which businesses were better off being shuttered versus being forced to be open because the competition was allowed to be open.  Of course these won't be absolutes and the data will be muddied, but still interesting.   

 
FYI....this state does NOT count people dying here (or with covid in general) if they aren't residents.  I don't know how other states do it.

 
I agree that with states as large as Florida, and especially ones as large as California, it is more reflective to look at cities/counties and how they responded. For example, San Franciso did amazingly well, LA not so much. Tampa pretty good, Miami pretty bad.

 
Bottomfeeder Sports said:
@The Commishkeeps telling us how hard the economic toil has been on Florida despite being "wide open".   I think that is reflective of significant numbers of people listening.   I wonder how many business failures are happening in Florida because the business tried to be open.  That is while being forced to be closed is terrible as their are those fixed costs that need to be paid regardless (ignoring availability of assistance) - like rent or mortgage payments that is only compounded if the costs to being open aren't covered by the sales of whatever service or product.  I think five years from now it will be interesting to see in aggregate which businesses were better off being shuttered versus being forced to be open because the competition was allowed to be open.  Of course these won't be absolutes and the data will be muddied, but still interesting.  
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I want to be clear....I speak ONLY for the areas around me in Central Florida.  If people are interested in the economics of Central Florida, look up Hank Fishkind and read his takes.  He's been pretty much spot on this whole time both in impacts and predictions.  I make those distinctions because we really have 4-5 different economic situations in this state depending on area.  

 
Bottomfeeder Sports said:
The problem with this is that you need figure out how the populations behaved.   Florida was "wide open" doesn't mean that large portions of the population of a given community still practiced all of these things with the exceptions just being highly visible.  California being "shut down" doesn't mean that significant portions of the population of a given community still weren't defiant.  Whether or not there was a mask mandate doesn't necessarily help determine how the communities behaved.   The point of the mandate I would think is messaging, to reaffirm with the community that a mask is going to help slow the spread.  With or without a mandate what matters is how much the message was taken and put in practice. 

@The Commishkeeps telling us how hard the economic toil has been on Florida despite being "wide open".   I think that is reflective of significant numbers of people listening.   I wonder how many business failures are happening in Florida because the business tried to be open.  That is while being forced to be closed is terrible as their are those fixed costs that need to be paid regardless (ignoring availability of assistance) - like rent or mortgage payments that is only compounded if the costs to being open aren't covered by the sales of whatever service or product.  I think five years from now it will be interesting to see in aggregate which businesses were better off being shuttered versus being forced to be open because the competition was allowed to be open.  Of course these won't be absolutes and the data will be muddied, but still interesting.   
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To the entirety of this post I give a :goodposting:  and why I've never understood the attempts to "compare".  This country has not been CLOSE to actually locked down and I am appreciative of that as I don't think it was necessary as long as people were personally responsible enough to do the right thing.  Clearly that's been truer in some parts of the country than others.  I don't think "state" comparisons are nearly granular enough for any sort of comparisons for that very reason.

 
Bottomfeeder Sports said:
@The Commishkeeps telling us how hard the economic toil has been on Florida despite being "wide open".   I think that is reflective of significant numbers of people listening.   I wonder how many business failures are happening in Florida because the business tried to be open. 
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Foreign travel being shut down as well as restrictions from other states would obviously have a massive effect on Orlando and surrounding areas. 

 
The Commish said:
I want to be clear....I speak ONLY for the areas around me in Central Florida.  If people are interested in the economics of Central Florida, look up Hank Fishkind and read his takes.  He's been pretty much spot on this whole time both in impacts and predictions.  I make those distinctions because we really have 4-5 different economic situations in this state depending on area.  
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You are definitely at ground zero of the Florida tourist trap.  It's not surprising your area would be hit hard. 

 
parasaurolophus said:
Foreign travel being shut down as well as restrictions from other states would obviously have a massive effect on Orlando and surrounding areas. 
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I don't know if other countries are keeping their people from coming here or other states are.  Are they?  Things here in Central Florida started getting worse in Oct-Nov once all the support funding went away since we were officially "open" and people were still staying home.  There are two restaurants here in my little town that seem to be back to "normal"....Texas Roadhouse and Olive Garden.  I have a couple friends who own small businesses and they have lost business because they insist on people wearing masks in their establishments.  MOST people around us are still wearing masks, but I can go south into Palm Beach County or north to Duval and see that masks are an afterthought.

 
E Street Brat said:
You are definitely at ground zero of the Florida tourist trap.  It's not surprising your area would be hit hard. 
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Was on a trip home from Tampa on I-4 near you and my kids wanted burgers, so I got on the google and found "Ford's Garage" (I think that's the name of it).....people raving about their burgers etc. It's down there in your area I think. So I thought what the hell...pulled into the parking lot on a Sunday night about 8pm and there was an hour and a half wait :lol:   Place was packed!!!  We went to Five Guys instead and were the only ones in the place.

 
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ekbeats said:
Tell us about it.
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Well, everyone knows Florida is a big tourism state. However, our second biggest industry is agriculture, since we can grow stuff year round. That took a huge hit last year when everything shut down, because a lot of our farms sent food to theme parks and schools across the country. Since those shut down, a lot of farmers struggled to find buyers, and several just let the crops rot in the fields. That’s going to take time to recover from.

 
The Commish said:
Was on a trip home from Tampa on I-4 near you and my kids wanted burgers, so I got on the google and found "Ford's Garage" (I think that's the name of it).....people raving about their burgers etc. It's down there in your area I think. So I thought what the hell...pulled into the parking lot on a Sunday night about 8pm and there was an hour and a half wait :lol:   Place was packed!!!  We went to Five Guys instead and were the only ones in the place.
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I'll have to look them them up. Never heard of the place. 

 
I don't have the statistics in front of me but I'll talk about my state a little - Georgia.

We never had a severe lockdown but we did SAH and early on SIP.  Schools closed until Fall but we opened up most schools outside of Atlanta counties and have done fairly well with numbers (middle of the road).  I'm not sure where we stand on economy and jobs but I would imagine we are doing ok.  My biggest issue all along has been we have not had any kind of mask mandate anywhere and when the Atlanta mayor tried to implement one it became another partisan thing and the Governor tried to intervene.  Outside of that I think we did just an ok job of things.  It's easy for me, someone who has gotten to work from home for over a year and will continue to do so 6 more months, to say that we should have locked down harder but I know people and businesses were/are struggling.  I'm grateful we were able to keep schools open and keep kids in somewhat of a route.  This thing was always going to be a balancing act between caution and trying to remain normal.  Nobody will ever know what the real answer was - but again, I think if we had moved to open up (obviously not everything to full capacity) with strict mask policy it would have been better.

I think Desantis made some decisions out of typical partisanship, some out of desire to stay on Trump's good side but I do think there's a good chance most of his decisions were to try and do a balancing act to keep his constituents happy and keep things open.  I think some the things he did was dumb and misleading but nothing that I recall at least was too severe versus what I would expect from any politician.  I'll add I would never vote for him for President.

 
As a naive and current southern Cali resident who works in a industry amongst the hardest hit by Newsom’s policies I’m on the fence with the recall.  I was not and am not a Newsom guy, but I thought he handled the early moths of the Pandemic very well.  Now he’s completely tone deaf and disconnected from reality.  The restrictions for gatherings and restaurants at this stage are draconian. At our loosest possible level, i.e. one case per hundred thousand, restaurants still can only operate at 50% and gathering can still only be three households.  So in other words if there are 10 total cases of COVID in San Diego county we still can’t gather or go to restaurants normally.  10!  That’s absolutely ludicrous.  If only 400 people in the largest state in the country have COVID we still can’t gather or go to restaurants normally. 400 of 40,000,000.00.  It’s unfathomable what he’s doing right now. 
 

I don’t want to throw the baby out with the bath water as I do believe he’s done good things over the past year, but each day that goes by and he continues not to adjust to reasonable measures pushes me closer and closer to wanting him out.  

 
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dkp993 said:
As a naive and current southern Cali resident who works in a industry amongst the hardest hit by Newsom’s policies I’m on the fence with the recall.  I was not and am not a Newsom guy, but I thought he handled the early moths of the Pandemic very well.  Now he’s completely tone deaf and disconnected from reality.  The restrictions for gatherings and restaurants at this stage are draconian. At our loosest possible level, i.e. one case per hundred thousand, restaurants still can only operate at 50% and gathering can still only be three households.  So in other words if there are 10 total cases of COVID in San Diego county we still can’t gather or go to restaurants normally.  10!  That’s absolutely ludicrous.  If only 400 people in the largest state in the country have COVID we still can’t gather or go to restaurants normally. 400 of 40,000,000.00.  It’s unfathomable what he’s doing right now. 
 

I don’t want to throw the baby out with the bath water as I do believe he’s done good things over the past year, but each day that goes by and he continues not to adjust to reasonable measures pushes me closer and closer to wanting him out.  
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When a governor sets restrictions that are basically below the false positive rate, it is obviously not about the science.

 
parasaurolophus said:
When a governor sets restrictions that are basically below the false positive rate, it is obviously not about the science.
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Yeah it really defies logic what he’s doing.  And I’ve been pretty centered or on the cautious side of Covid. So I’m certainly not one of the COVID’s not a big deal crowd.  When you’ve lost the center you’re off the rails

 
The Commish said:
I don't know if other countries are keeping their people from coming here or other states are.  Are they?  Things here in Central Florida started getting worse in Oct-Nov once all the support funding went away since we were officially "open" and people were still staying home.  There are two restaurants here in my little town that seem to be back to "normal"....Texas Roadhouse and Olive Garden.  I have a couple friends who own small businesses and they have lost business because they insist on people wearing masks in their establishments.  MOST people around us are still wearing masks, but I can go south into Palm Beach County or north to Duval and see that masks are an afterthought.
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How do the covid rates compare in the three areas that you mentioned here?

 
psychobillies said:
How do the covid rates compare in the three areas that you mentioned here?
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not sure....I just know my area and I'm not all that confident in the state reporting given all the local pushback questioning why the numbers they are/were reporting aren't making it into the dashboard correctly.  Though, in recent months, those reports have gone down a bit, so maybe it's getting better?  Not sure.

 
I used to think Desantis was a hick until I heard an interview with him last week.  The guy has a pretty impressive resume.  Yale undergrad and Harvard Law.  JAG Officer, served in Iraq War as a Lieutenant Commander with a Bronze Star and other commendations.... Combine that with being a US Congressman and Governor of Florida and it’s just about a perfect resume for President.  Plus he is young. 

 
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I agree. The guys got a stellar resume.

when he runs against Harris in the next election he has a good chance of unseating her.

 
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BladeRunner said:
I agree. The guys got a stellar resume.

when he runs against Harris in the next election he has a good chance of unseating her.
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I think you could beat Harris, Bladerunner.  She does not poll well.  Dems are in trouble for 2024.  The only thing that could screw it up is Trump.

 
parasaurolophus said:
Foreign travel being shut down as well as restrictions from other states would obviously have a massive effect on Orlando and surrounding areas. 
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Right but that is from the perspective of being "open" is the same as people choosing to stay home.  I don't think Florida's approach deserves credit for its rates not being as bad as one might suspect because tourist stayed away.  Especially to the degree that tourist choose to stay away out of fears of Florida's relaxed attitude on things,  Or to the extent that other countries use Florida as an excuse to limit travel.   Unless of course the approach was intended to scare everyone else away.

 
ekbeats said:
I think you could beat Harris, Bladerunner.  She does not poll well.  Dems are in trouble for 2024.  The only thing that could screw it up is Trump.
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There’s a whole LOT that could screw it up and most likely will: 

1. First off I’m not at all sure the narrative that “we kept things open and it worked out fine” is going to fly. Certainly DeSantis and perhaps others in the GOP are going to try it, and it will probably work for the base, but will it work for the rest of the country? That’s the reason I started this thread. I don’t know. 
2. Second if it DOESN’T work what else do Republicans have? What can they point to? Cancel culture? Election fraud? Opposing everything? Let’s face it: unless there is a new economic collapse between now and 2024, public opinion is likely to stay the course with the Democrats. 
3. With regard to Harris I still think it’s more likely than not, maybe 55%, that Biden runs again. But for the sake of argument let’s say he doesn’t and it’s Harris. The problem with “she does not poll well” is that you’re looking at 2020 at Senator Kamala Harris. In 2024 she will be, fixed in the public mind, Vice President Kamala Harris and successor to Biden. Totally different ballgame, and I think she will poll just fine. 

 
Great thread, as DeSantis could be the president in 2024, much to my surprise, but his polling numbers are great.  California is a good comparison to Florida, and my perspective is influenced by 2 daughters who moved to LA and SF during the pandemic. The one in LA is very liberal and more activist and thinks CA has done it right. The one in SF moved there in November and  thinks the shutdown has been too restrictive; she wanted limited opening in restaurants and gyms, also outdoor bars, as she saw in Boston which opened up earlier. There are vast differences between LA and SF, I agree with an earlier opening in SF as they had the lowest COVID numbers of any large city.

When comparing Florida and CA, note that FL had the largest COVID surge in the nation during the summer, probably due to DeSantis opening the state and more indoor gatherings due to the heat. Meanwhile, CA had a very large winter surge, especially in LA. When comparing LA and Miami, you need to consider age, Miami has the oldest Hispanics in the country, and SES, Miami's Hispanics are the wealthiest. It's hard to compare death rates, but it seems that CA and FL are in the same ballpark, with slightly worse numbers for FL. Economically, I think FL has fared much better. 

I'd DeSantis had kept the mask mandate, I think he'd be a shoe-in for 2024. 

 
The Commish said:
I don't know if other countries are keeping their people from coming here or other states are.  Are they?  Things here in Central Florida started getting worse in Oct-Nov once all the support funding went away since we were officially "open" and people were still staying home.  There are two restaurants here in my little town that seem to be back to "normal"....Texas Roadhouse and Olive Garden.  I have a couple friends who own small businesses and they have lost business because they insist on people wearing masks in their establishments.  MOST people around us are still wearing masks, but I can go south into Palm Beach County or north to Duval and see that masks are an afterthought.
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14 day restrictions, etc serve almost as well as travel bans. 

As for the bold, what support funding ...unemployment? 

 
timschochet said:
I believe that Ron DeSantis is going to run for President in 2024, and I think he has a very good shot of being the Republican nominee.
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Just to nit-pick, it will be Donald Trump running for President in 2024 as the Republican nominee. Perhaps Ron DeSantis in 2028. He would wait his turn, so to speak. This is an interesting topic nonetheless and that point about 2024 is probably tangential to the overall discussion. 

 
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