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2021 Rookie drafts


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3 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

There is a difference, that's a good point. Here is my roster, feels like RB is a MUST

Ryan, Tua, Darnold, Kyle Allen

Gibson, Ron Jones, Conner, Lindsay, McKissic, Pollard, AP, Chris Thompson

Hill, Michael Thomas, Julio, Gallup, AB, Crowder, Duvernay, A Miller, Cam Sims, Isabella, Steven Sims, Jeffrey (a lot of drops here I realize)

Andrews, Smith Jr, Sample, Arnold 

 

Yeah I think if you can get one of the top 3 RB it IS a must.  But if those 3 are somehow gone, I don't think you can justify passing on a QB for Sermon or Carter.  Just my opinion.

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9 minutes ago, facook said:

Yeah I think if you can get one of the top 3 RB it IS a must.  But if those 3 are somehow gone, I don't think you can justify passing on a QB for Sermon or Carter.  Just my opinion.

I actually agree with that too. If all 3 RBs are gone I'd take Pitts, Smith, or Waddle before reaching that far.  I have to hope QBs go early but I have my doubts looking at the rosters....

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4 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I actually agree with that too. If all 3 RBs are gone I'd take Pitts, Smith, or Waddle before reaching that far.  I have to hope QBs go early but I have my doubts looking at the rosters....

You'd take Pitts, Smith, or Waddle before one of the top 4 qb's?  

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Probably residual hype before the draft combined with a bit of skepticism about Miles Sanders. Plus I think some players are believers in not letting landing spot be too impactful. 

Or being drafted day 3??

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26 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Or being drafted day 3??

I was just explaining the reason why some people might be taking him higher than you expected. 

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1 hour ago, facook said:

You'd take Pitts, Smith, or Waddle before one of the top 4 qb's?  

In most leagues? Absolutely.

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2 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Is it a rule of thumb that roster be damned you HAVE to take a QB if one is available early in a SF league? I have the 1.7 in a league where I have Ryan, Tua, and Darnold at QB, but I don't have jack diddly squat at RB after Gibson. Am I a horrible owner if I take one of the top 3 RBs even if a top 3 or 4 QB is there? 

Nope. But you might try to move back a spot or 3 and pick up an extra dart or depth.

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4 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Is it a rule of thumb that roster be damned you HAVE to take a QB if one is available early in a SF league? I have the 1.7 in a league where I have Ryan, Tua, and Darnold at QB, but I don't have jack diddly squat at RB after Gibson. Am I a horrible owner if I take one of the top 3 RBs even if a top 3 or 4 QB is there? 

Have to? No.

But Ryan is getting old, Darnold is... A question mark. I like tua but best not to assume he's a lock to be a stud. 

Do what you want, it seems a top 4 qb shouldn't fall to 7 anyway, but I wouldn't pass on Wilson (assuming he's #4) for Etienne. 

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2 hours ago, smbkrypt24 said:

First dynasty rookie draft just started. 12 team PPR. 1 QB. No TE premium:

1. Pitts

2. Chase

3. Harris

4. ET

5. J. Wiliams

wow Pitts #1 with no TE premium scoring. Someone is drinking the Kool Aid big time. I like him a lot, but over Chase and Harris? Man that's ballsy 

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39 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

wow Pitts #1 with no TE premium scoring. Someone is drinking the Kool Aid big time. I like him a lot, but over Chase and Harris? Man that's ballsy 

I agree.  I don't hate the pick I currently have Pitts at #2, but I thought I was in the minority that had him that high in non TE premium.

I tell you just a couple month ago, taking him at 7 was around the area people had him slotted.  I was salivating at taking him there and now I don't know if I can get him at 4.

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On 5/4/2021 at 10:53 AM, Helaire-ious said:

2 of 4 rounds in the books in PPR start 1 QB here...

Round 1

Chewy - J. Chase WR CIN

knarley - Pitts TE ATL

Paul - N. Harris RB PIT

Wes - T. Lawrence QB JAX

Wes - T. Etienne RB JAX

Wes - J. Waddle WR MIA

Luke - J. Williams RB DEN

Byron - R. Moore WR ARI

Wes - D. Smith WR PHI

Chomp - K. Gainwell RB PHI

Wes - M. Carter RB NYJ

CMC - T. Sermon RB SF

 

Round 2

JohnnyT - R. Bateman WR BAL

knarley - T. Marshall WR CAR

Paul - A. St Brown WR DET

Wes - E. Moore WR NYJ

Paul - P. Freiermuth TE PIT

JohnnyT - Dyami Brown WR WFT

Luke - K. Toney WR NYG

JohnnyT - J. Fields QB CHI

Byron - T. Lance QB SF

Byron - E. Mitche;; RB SF

Wes - Z. Wilson QB NYJ

CMC - A. Rodgers WR GB

Round 3 done

Chewy - D. Eskridge WR SEA

knarley - J. Palmer WR LAC

Paul - C. Hubbard RB CAR

JohnnyT - N. Collins WR HOU

Will - M. Jones QB NE

Chewy - T. Wallace WR BAL

luke - D. Fitzpatrick WR TN

JohnnyT - H. Long TE MIA

CMC - J. Hawkins RB ATL

CMC - C. Powell WR KC

JohnnyT - T. Atwell WR LAR

Wes - I.Smith-Marsette WR MN

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35 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I tell you just a couple month ago, taking him at 7 was around the area people had him slotted.  I was salivating at taking him there and now I don't know if I can get him at 4.

For sure. Too many Calvin Johnson comparisons.

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First dynasty rookie draft just started. 12 team PPR. 1 QB. No TE premium:

1. Pitts

2. Chase

3. Harris

4. ET

5. J. Wiliams

6. Waddle

7. Smith

8. Lawrence

9. Sermon

10. Bateman

11. Toney

12. Carter

Round 2

13. Moore

14. Jake Funk

15. Z. Wilson

16. T. Marshall

 

It wouldn't let me just edit my previous post so posting the update with all other picks in new post.

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1 minute ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Looks like Jake Funk is in your league. That's cool.

Honestly thought they same thing.  I had to look him up to see which team and when Funk was drafted.  Also, checked his roster to see if it was a handcuff or extreme weak position.  Negative and negative.  

Maybe he knows something we don't...

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13 hours ago, smbkrypt24 said:

Honestly thought they same thing.  I had to look him up to see which team and when Funk was drafted.  Also, checked his roster to see if it was a handcuff or extreme weak position.  Negative and negative.  

Maybe he knows something we don't...

I'm going to go with he doesn't.

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, oukurt said:

Start 1 QB

6 pt all TDs

PPR
 

STARTING LINEUP SETUP

Total Starters:14

Number of Starting QBs:1

Number of Starting RBs:2-6

Number of Starting WRs:2-6

Number of Starting TEs:1-4

Number of Starting PKs:1

Number of Starting Defs:1

 

https://www53.myfantasyleague.com/2021/options?L=68066&O=17

Fields before Lawrence, and not until round 2. Huh. 10 team, but still...

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I agree.  I don't hate the pick I currently have Pitts at #2, but I thought I was in the minority that had him that high in non TE premium.

I tell you just a couple month ago, taking him at 7 was around the area people had him slotted.  I was salivating at taking him there and now I don't know if I can get him at 4.

Seeing Pitts going 1.1 and 1.2 ahead of Chase, Harris, and Etienne in non SF and non TE + more and more as we distance from NFL draft. 
 I will be struggling with my decision to either swing for the fences with Pitts or choke up on the bat and take a contact swing securing the RB I really need with Ettiene or Williams. Drafting 1.03 and 1.05 in my dynasty non SF and non TE+ leagues, I am hoping that Pitts is taken before me so that it makes my decision easier.

Edited by oukurt
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I currently hold the 1.02 in a 14-Team SF Dyn League. Almost 100% chance Lawrence is going 1.01.

We have weird scoring. 1 PPR, but with benchmarks (long story): TE starts at 3rd catch, RB at 4th and WR at 5th. Player has to be very impactful in the passing offense during their game to get rewarded with PPR, basically. So much so, it's almost non-PPR, haha.

I have my pick of Pitts, Chase, anyone not named Lawrence, but at this moment, I firmly believe that Javonte Williams is going to be have the best career of any popular skill-position player in this class, even though he's going to get off to a slow start in 2021 (Gordon), and outside of Lawrence, I don't think there's a qb in the class that has the ability to have a lasting NFL impact...

...so I'm currently engaged in talks to trade down, maybe multiple times, based on calculating how far I project Williams to fall.

Our draft isn't til early August, and it's a Rookie/UFA Draft, which is a little more flush on the UFA part this Season, as we decided not to play the 2020 Season due to the potential negative impact of C19 on the integrity of the Season (League going into it's 21st Season, so that meant a lot to us), which means a # of guys who would have been picked up off the waiver wire during the 2020 Season will be in the mix, but not enough to push down the value of the most elite rookies.

Given our scoring, if I can't make the moves I'd like to, I'll likely take Pitts or Chase, but I like RB's, and I like Williams a lot more than I like Harris/Etienne.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/4/2021 at 12:51 PM, pizzatyme said:

Harris for me.

I tend to shy away from Alabama RBs after Trent Richardson’s massive flop of 2012. He was drawing comparisons to Adrian Peterson, a can’t miss NFL RB that went 1.01 in most rookie drafts unless the 1.01 needed a QB and they drafted Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin. Ooof.

Anyone remember reading these notes on TR?

1.01 Trent Richardson, RB, Browns  
Trent Richardson is a stud, and he's never going to come off the field because of his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. He should be among the league leaders in total yardage over the next 8-10 years. 

Richardson has been favorably compared to Adrian Peterson and dubbed elite by nearly the entire NFL community.  If you’re needy at both the quarterback and running back positions, you’ve got quite the decision to make but all signs point to Richardson just being too sexy to pass up on.

Trent Richardson, RB, Browns: Richardson is considered the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson in 2007, and he has amazing potential. He ran for 1,679 yards and 21 touchdowns in 2011 at Alabama with 29 catches for 338 yards and three touchdowns. 

1) Trent Richardson—Easy selection for 2012 and will be the top fantasy producer among rookies.

I bought the hype hook, line, and sinker. I said never again. The reason being simple. Alabama year in and year out has elite talent all over the field and I feel like it puts a shine on some players coming into the NFL. A shine than can mask deficiencies in a player’s skill set. Monster college stats we salivate over that drive the hype machine. How much of the Bama O line creating a lane would I be paying for? That goes for other traditional power house programs like Ohio St, Oklahoma, Clemson, LSU, Florida, and Georgia in the last decade. 
However Alabama’s dynasty over the last decade has never been seen before in college football. Natties and playoff appearances left and right. Year in, year out, top recruiting classes fill their starting lineups with 5 star recruits, All-Americans, all SEC conference phenoms. Bama backs so often aren’t touched until the second level. They run through gaping holes provided by these mammoth l 300 + lb O linemen that outclass their mirror on defense every Saturday. Alabama wins the battle in the trenches and then the super recruit skill players reap the rewards.
Guessing some will disagree, but it’s the way I go about things. Of course it’s far from full proof.
Could Harris have a great career? Sure. I just can’t and won’t pull the trigger on him. I just believe his stats are inflated. I should never say I’m never going to draft another Alabama RB again, so how can I better protect myself against a bust? This won’t be a popular opinion because so many have and will happily invest in Harris with an early pick.

I guess I’m stating take a long look at all the information. It’s all out there and just a search engine away.
Dive deep into RAS and WRAPS scores from  the combine along with checking out all of the video you can find on players you draft in dynasty leagues. Don’t just watch in awe as Harris or whoever rushes for 200 yards and 4 scores vs Sisters of the Broken Hearted   U. Watch the games vs the better defenses. Does this RB have burst, wiggle, long speed, vision, avoid be taken down on first contact, does this RB get stronger as the game goes on?  It’s a heavy investment so put in some time and grade into tiers or whatever works for you.Add notes to simplify your draft day.

Cheers, boys.

Edited by oukurt
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12 hours ago, nittanylion said:

I currently hold the 1.02 in a 14-Team SF Dyn League. Almost 100% chance Lawrence is going 1.01.

We have weird scoring. 1 PPR, but with benchmarks (long story): TE starts at 3rd catch, RB at 4th and WR at 5th. Player has to be very impactful in the passing offense during their game to get rewarded with PPR, basically. So much so, it's almost non-PPR, haha.

I have my pick of Pitts, Chase, anyone not named Lawrence, but at this moment, I firmly believe that Javonte Williams is going to be have the best career of any popular skill-position player in this class, even though he's going to get off to a slow start in 2021 (Gordon), and outside of Lawrence, I don't think there's a qb in the class that has the ability to have a lasting NFL impact...

...so I'm currently engaged in talks to trade down, maybe multiple times, based on calculating how far I project Williams to fall.

Our draft isn't til early August, and it's a Rookie/UFA Draft, which is a little more flush on the UFA part this Season, as we decided not to play the 2020 Season due to the potential negative impact of C19 on the integrity of the Season (League going into it's 21st Season, so that meant a lot to us), which means a # of guys who would have been picked up off the waiver wire during the 2020 Season will be in the mix, but not enough to push down the value of the most elite rookies.

Given our scoring, if I can't make the moves I'd like to, I'll likely take Pitts or Chase, but I like RB's, and I like Williams a lot more than I like Harris/Etienne.

I think your goal should be three trade downs. No less than two.  Let me know what happens. That's a god-dang fun position you are in.  

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7 hours ago, oukurt said:

I tend to shy away from Alabama RBs after Trent Richardson’s massive flop of 2012. He was drawing comparisons to Adrian Peterson, a can’t miss NFL RB that went 1.01 in most rookie drafts unless the 1.01 needed a QB and they drafted Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin. Ooof.

 

Why is Richardson the 'Bama benchmark and not Henry? I bet a LOT of people missed out on the latter because of the former.

To a lesser extent, you could say some missed on Jacobs too.

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11 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Why is Richardson the 'Bama benchmark and not Henry? I bet a LOT of people missed out on the latter because of the former.

To a lesser extent, you could say some missed on Jacobs too.

Ingram also had a pretty good career - it's odd that Richardson is the Alabama RB that people want to remember.

Kenyan Drake and Damien Harris have also shown some flashes in the NFL - the track record for Bama RBs is actually pretty good.

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Why is Richardson the 'Bama benchmark and not Henry? I bet a LOT of people missed out on the latter because of the former.

To a lesser extent, you could say some missed on Jacobs too.

I’m not trying to set a benchmark, I just find it very difficult to grade Crimson Tide players.  I personally don’t like investing an early draft pick on a player that has such a huge built in advantage of running behind, throwing to, catching from All-Americans. Alabama annually produces the best college football players in America and it’s not close, but for a handful of reasons, I believe those players to be at greater risk of underperforming and busting in the NFL. 

I am also not painting every Alabama skill position player with a large single stroke. Theories abound. Saban’s knack for getting maximum results; the extreme structure of the program conceal potential character concerns; Alabama’s stellar recruiting classes create depth that allows players to constantly showcase themselves at full strength; playing beside super-human teammates can make Alabama players look more dominant than they really are, IMO.

When they leave, they don’t have Saban coaching them, he’s that good. They’re an all-encompassing program. Their concern for their players is why they consistently perform at such a high level, and when they leave that, they don’t have that same system supporting them.

I am simply just pointing out that I don’t like the higher bust risk that I perceive comes with drafting a player from Alabama. This the reason I stay away.  

 

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10 minutes ago, oukurt said:

I am simply just pointing out that I don’t like the higher bust risk that I perceive comes with drafting a player from Alabama. This the reason I stay away.  

And all we're saying is that that perception might not be correct. Julio Jones is a HOFer. Amari Cooper blows hot and cold but is great when hot. Calvin Ridley is the next big thing, if he's not already. It's already been covered that there's more good than bad from the RBs.

We'll see about the WRs from last year, but I'd bet the arrow points up for Jeudy after this season.

In fact, it seems like there's more good than bad overall. :shrug:

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32 minutes ago, bro1ncos said:

Restarted for rounds 4 and 5. Rounds 6+ restart in July with all free agents (vets and rookies) eligible to be drafted. 

Why would someone take Jaret Patterson that high?

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18 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

And all we're saying is that that perception might not be correct. Julio Jones is a HOFer. Amari Cooper blows hot and cold but is great when hot. Calvin Ridley is the next big thing, if he's not already. It's already been covered that there's more good than bad from the RBs.

We'll see about the WRs from last year, but I'd bet the arrow points up for Jeudy after this season.

In fact, it seems like there's more good than bad overall. :shrug:

It could be that the Richardson draft pick did such a number on me that it has distorted my opinion on Alabama RBs so much that I have unfairly lumped them into a huge BEWARE DO NOT DRAFT pile.

 I need to look at the careers of drafted RBs like Coffee,  Richardson, Lacy, Fowler,  Yeldon. Drake, Henry,  Scarborough, Jacobs, and D Harris. 

 

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17 minutes ago, oukurt said:

It could be that the Richardson draft pick did such a number on me that it has distorted my opinion on Alabama RBs so much that I have unfairly lumped them into a huge BEWARE DO NOT DRAFT pile.

 I need to look at the careers of drafted RBs like Coffee,  Richardson, Lacy, Fowler,  Yeldon. Drake, Henry,  Scarborough, Jacobs, and D Harris. 

 

Looking at the Richardson angle is short sighted, but I know where you're coming from, because I used to think that way about Wisconsin running backs.  Jonathan Taylor changed that.

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36 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Why would someone take Jaret Patterson that high?

To be honest I think it is partially how we have had our league draft settings for many years. For rounds 1-3 (before NFL draft) all rookies are only listed alphabetically. If you don't do some research on your own pre-draft you can't rely on MFL rankings to help. 

Personally I like it but I am mad at myself for not paying enough attention after my early pick to see Carter fall like that. 

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1 minute ago, bro1ncos said:

To be honest I think it is partially how we have had our league draft settings for many years. For rounds 1-3 (before NFL draft) all rookies are only listed alphabetically. If you don't do some research on your own pre-draft you can't rely on MFL rankings to help. 

Personally I like it but I am mad at myself for not paying enough attention after my early pick to see Carter fall like that. 

Are you saying the league is set to let MFL auto draft if you don't predraft?  That setting should never be on.

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25 minutes ago, Dacomish said:

Started Wed.

16 team, IPD/PPR (.5 ppr RB, 1 ppr WR, 1.5 ppr TE). 

28 man active rosters, 3 man Taxi rosters for rookies (can stay on there indefinitely to develop)

Start:

1QB

1 RB

3 WR/TE

2 RB/WR/TE Flex

2-3 DL

2-3 LB

2-3 DB

https://www53.myfantasyleague.com/2021/options?L=11578&O=17

League is set so that only franchise owners can see anything

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16 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Are you saying the league is set to let MFL auto draft if you don't predraft?  That setting should never be on.

No, not at all. Normal draft, you just can't see MFL rankings like ADP, ranking. If you want to draft Kyle Pitts you have to know who you are looking for and scroll down to P and pick him. 

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14 minutes ago, bro1ncos said:

No, not at all. Normal draft, you just can't see MFL rankings like ADP, ranking. If you want to draft Kyle Pitts you have to know who you are looking for and scroll down to P and pick him. 

Ok, I get it.  Well, in that case if a person doesn't know who the best players are then perhaps they should find another hobby.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Looking at the Richardson angle is short sighted, but I know where you're coming from, because I used to think that way about Wisconsin running backs.  Jonathan Taylor changed that.

Yes. Probably best I posted about not having any part of an Alabama RB. 
 

After reading all I could find on the subject, there are some that shared my original thinking of Alabama players coming out of college with inflated numbers, however after reading some opinions here, I tend to think my view on the subject was flawed.  At the very least there were just as many successful seasons as disappointing seasons.  Likely more positive seasons.  So my thinking was changed today. It’s time I forgive Trent Richardson. 😝 

Good point about Taylor. 

Edited by oukurt
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2 hours ago, oukurt said:

It could be that the Richardson draft pick did such a number on me that it has distorted my opinion on Alabama RBs so much that I have unfairly lumped them into a huge BEWARE DO NOT DRAFT pile.

 I need to look at the careers of drafted RBs like Coffee,  Richardson, Lacy, Fowler,  Yeldon. Drake, Henry,  Scarborough, Jacobs, and D Harris. 

 

Ingram

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On 5/5/2021 at 11:42 AM, ffmail4me said:

wow Pitts #1 with no TE premium scoring. Someone is drinking the Kool Aid big time. I like him a lot, but over Chase and Harris? Man that's ballsy 

Just happens in my league as well.  Something tells me he’s not going to live up where he’s going now, but what do I know. I have the 1.02 in one league, and no way I take him there. 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Shawnky said:

Just happens in my league as well.  Something tells me he’s not going to live up where he’s going now, but what do I know. I have the 1.02 in one league, and no way I take him there. 

It's such a tight spot to hit. It he isn't Kelce, Kittle, Gronk, Graham within 2 years then he is going to disappoint. ETN and Harris have more room. Taking them we hope for a Kamara or Lev Bell but we are still way ahead if they end up as a Ekeler and Ingram. Same with Chase. We want elite WR 1 but even if he is more midrange WR2, it's still a very helpful asset that retains real value. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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46 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Same with Chase. We want elite WR 1 but even if he is more midrange WR2, it's still a very helpful asset that retains real value. 

Lots of WR2 you can’t trade.

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14 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Lots of WR2 you can’t trade.

Yeah but they aren't under 26 with 1st round draft capital WR2s

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