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Dynasty: What would you pay for Deshaun Watson right now? (1 Viewer)

Hot Sauce Guy

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
If you knew the owner wanted to cut bait, what’s his present value, "warts & all" as the expression goes?

Please keep the situational details & debate to the other topic.  This is purely a value discussion in light of those current circumstances, muddied waters, unknowns and all.

What pick or player would you give up *right now this moment*?

Or would you not even bother to make a lowball offer? 

Would your decision change if it was superflex as opposed to a 1 QB league? 

Just curious where folks are at on this. 

 
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I was offered Watson for 1.01, 1.07, and 2.01 in a SF league.  I declined and notified the other owner about what was going on.  He responded he sent out offer before the SA allegations.

This much smoke has me concerned for him moving forward.  The fantasy community tends to over react to news, but this time I am staying away.  For a late 2nd or early 3rd in non SF I would take a change, but otherwise no interest.

 
smbkrypt24 said:
I was offered Watson for 1.01, 1.07, and 2.01 in a SF league.  I declined and notified the other owner about what was going on.  He responded he sent out offer before the SA allegations.

This much smoke has me concerned for him moving forward.  The fantasy community tends to over react to news, but this time I am staying away.  For a late 2nd or early 3rd in non SF I would take a change, but otherwise no interest.
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That's not a no-value pick - more of a flyer than some, but definitely some risk at that price. Probably worth it if this blows over, and then some. 

Amazing considering his value prior to this was sky high. 

 
I wish we could go back and see some of the Tyreek Hill deals a while back when things looked bad.

Using an arbitrary number of his value a week ago, say 100.....I would put his value at a 70 and pay that value.

I dont do supeflex, but in regular 12 team PPR leagues I would happily pay a mid 2nd or future 2nd.  

 
ghostguy123 said:
I wish we could go back and see some of the Tyreek Hill deals a while back when things looked bad.

Using an arbitrary number of his value a week ago, say 100.....I would put his value at a 70 and pay that value.

I dont do supeflex, but in regular 12 team PPR leagues I would happily pay a mid 2nd or future 2nd.  
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There were definitely some Tyreek Hill for 3rd round pick deals at the time.

3rd is about what I'd pay for Watson at this point.  Different situation as Watson isn't nearly as valuable as Tyreek in that format.  There's a difference between throwing something out there for a guy that is a top 10 overall dynasty asset if he gets cleared vs. a guy who is a nice mid-round startup player if he gets cleared.

SF gets tricky because obviously I would give more since the upside is much higher than in 1qb, but on the flipside SF increases the value of picks as well.  Not sure if I'd give a 2nd at this point as 2nds are usually pretty nice players in SF.

 
ghostguy123 said:
I wish we could go back and see some of the Tyreek Hill deals a while back when things looked bad.

Using an arbitrary number of his value a week ago, say 100.....I would put his value at a 70 and pay that value.

I dont do supeflex, but in regular 12 team PPR leagues I would happily pay a mid 2nd or future 2nd.  
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I got him for two 5th rounders.   :)  

 
Put some feelers out in leagues where I am rebuilding and can take the risk that he ends up a zero or that I have to sit on him for a few years. IMO, after what happened with Tyreek, no one wants to sell low and get burned.

 
MAC_32 said:
Anyone trying to acquire Watson right now is trying to buy at a discount.
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Right. Understood that we're talking shades of grey here as opposed to full value. You're saying the majority owners aren't looking at all to move him. My position is that anyone rational trying to buy him is trying to buy him at a discount and it seems sound to think that it behooves someone to look at how big of a discount they're willing to take.

Perhaps we're getting hung up on wording here. I'm not talking about lowballing or vultures picking at corpses or anything like that. I'm talking about legitimate deals at a not-too discounted price.

And then saying I wouldn't even offer a discounted price because of the off chance he doesn't play for a long time.

 
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rockaction said:
Right. Understood that we're talking shades of grey here as opposed to full value. You're saying the majority owners aren't looking at all to move him. My position is that anyone rational trying to buy him is trying to buy him at a discount and it seems sound to think that it behooves someone to look at how big of a discount they're willing to take.

Perhaps we're getting hung up on wording here. I'm not talking about lowballing or vultures picking at corpses or anything like that. I'm talking about legitimate deals at a not-too discounted price.

And then saying I wouldn't even offer a discounted price because of the off chance he doesn't play for a long time.
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I would need to be offered another elite qb to entertain any potential move. I do not expect others to make such an offer. 

 
MAC_32 said:
Why would any Watson owner sell him in a package for one of many tier 2 qb's? Acquiring one of them is not difficult. 
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You're assuming the guy needs a QB back, MAC. Your preferences for what you need can't possibly take into account the numerous team constructions and ways of approaching it. What if he wants a second-tier QB and a WR2? It's quite possible that happens.

 
rockaction said:
Fair enough, but I'm not sure you represent your average Deshaun GM.
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Yeah, in the OP I specifically said if the current Watson owner wants to cut bait. No way they get full value, and if they're trying to get out from the asset, clearly they're willing to consider less. 

The question isn't really anticipating what that owner would take, it's more about what would you pay for him, which I think you answered pretty well (for your standpoint as an unlikely buyer)

 
rockaction said:
You're assuming the guy needs a QB back, MAC. Your preferences for what you need can't possibly take into account the numerous team constructions and ways of approaching it. What if he wants a second-tier QB and a WR2? It's quite possible that happens.
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Generally speaking I think trading away elite talents for players that are not elite is a dumb way to run a team. 

 
MAC_32 said:
Generally speaking I think trading away elite talents for players that are not elite is a dumb way to run a team. 
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Generally speaking, I agree with you. However we're looking at 1 specific player in a very specific circumstance.

Watson could be:

1. A top 5 QB in the NFL & FF

2. Miss some time & return to ??? team?

3. Never play football again

That's a pretty wide range of possibilities to consider if you're the one paying a QB2 & a WR2-3. You could be paying low, average or a king's ransom, depending on which of those 3 ends up being the one you're buying. 

 
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MAC_32 said:
Generally speaking I think trading away elite talents for players that are not elite is a dumb way to run a team. 
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I disagree with your position on this. He might not be playing for a while, we don't know where he'll be playing, and there are huge clouds around Watson. You're extrapolating your own preferences out to a whole group of GMs that might feel radically differently. And to reiterate; I wouldn't be dealing for him, never mind standing pat expecting full value.

Watching an asset sink like a heavy stone is a also a dumb way to run a team, in my general opinion.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Generally speaking, I agree with you. However we're looking at 1 specific player in a very specific circumstance.

Watson could be:

1. A top 5 QB in the NFL & FF

2. Miss some time & return to ??? team?

3. Never play football again

That's a pretty wide range of possibilities to consider if you're the one paying a QB2 & a WR2-3. You could be paying low, average or a king's ransom, depending on which of those 3 ends up being the one you're buying. 
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QB2's and WR2.5's are not difficult nor expensive to find. Elites? Quite a bit different. If things go belly up then you regroup.

 
rockaction said:
I disagree with your position on this. He might not be playing for a while, we don't know where he'll be playing, and there are huge clouds around Watson. You're extrapolating your own preferences out to a whole group of GMs that might feel radically differently. And to reiterate; I wouldn't be dealing for him, never mind standing pat expecting full value.

Watching an asset sink like a heavy stone is a also a dumb way to run a team, in my general opinion.
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This is why depth matters. I have both NO quarterbacks should things go sideways. And this is on a team that got Andrew Luck'd 2 1/2 years ago. And I didn't have Wataon when that happened. 

If you're the Watson owner and you're concerned then divert your attention to your contingency plans; not him. 

 
MAC_32 said:
This is why depth matters. I have both NO quarterbacks should things go sideways. And this is on a team that got Andrew Luck'd 2 1/2 years ago. And I didn't have Wataon when that happened. 

If you're the Watson owner and you're concerned then divert your attention to your contingency plans; not him. 
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I thought you were against binary positions. Because going 0 to full value with no numerical value in between sounds awfully binary.

 
MAC_32 said:
This is why depth matters. I have both NO quarterbacks should things go sideways. And this is on a team that got Andrew Luck'd 2 1/2 years ago. And I didn't have Wataon when that happened. 

If you're the Watson owner and you're concerned then divert your attention to your contingency plans; not him. 
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So to be clear, you're saying if someone offered you say, Tee Higgins & Derrick Carr (off the top of my head) you'd rather potentially watch your asset potentially drop to zero value than take that trade right now? 

So from a seller's standpoint (again, not really the point of the topic) you're a hold. He's your ride or die since you'll never get pre-controversy value for him? 

 
rockaction said:
I thought you were against binary positions. Because going 0 to full value with no numerical value in between sounds awfully binary.
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I am. If someone is willing to offer another elite player for him then I'd think about it. I have no expectations of that happening though.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
So to be clear, you're saying if someone offered you say, Tee Higgins & Derrick Carr (off the top of my head) you'd rather potentially watch your asset potentially drop to zero value than take that trade right now? 

So from a seller's standpoint (again, not really the point of the topic) you're a hold. He's your ride or die since you'll never get pre-controversy value for him? 
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I wouldn't use Tee Higgins. A Watson GM should accept that regardless.

Free BaGeL's point right before this lends credence to this. In a QB1 league, the difference between an elite Watson and a Tier 2 guy isn't that great. Watson was QB6 in my league. That's great, but the difference between him and QB12 was 1.5 points per game. Not that much at all. Unless elite means QB1, your Tier Two guys can definitely hang on a ppg basis.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
So to be clear, you're saying if someone offered you say, Tee Higgins & Derrick Carr (off the top of my head) you'd rather potentially watch your asset potentially drop to zero value than take that trade right now? 

So from a seller's standpoint (again, not really the point of the topic) you're a hold. He's your ride or die since you'll never get pre-controversy value for him? 
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Tee is elite, so of course I'd do that. Elite players aren't untouchable, but they must come with one in return. If there's a dummy in your league willing to offer an elite player for him then you don't need advice to come to that conclusion. 

 
rockaction said:
I wouldn't use Tee Higgins. A Watson GM should accept that regardless.
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I certainly wouldn't. Watson is 25 and one of the most electric QBs in the league. Carr/Higgins shouldn't get that done without these circumstances. 

But ok, for topic's sake, JimmyG/Higgins. 

 
JohnnyU said:
I would rather go down with the ship than sell him cheap.  Some of the crap I’m reading in this thread is downright bat crazy.  A lot of former Watson owners are going to feel sick to their stomach when this blows over.
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So you think it'll end up like the Tyreek situation? 

 
MAC_32 said:
Tee is elite, so of course I'd do that. Elite players aren't untouchable, but they must come with one in return. If there's a dummy in your league willing to offer an elite player for him then you don't need advice to come to that conclusion. 
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But pre-controversy that deal shouldn't get it done. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I certainly wouldn't. Watson is 25 and one of the most electric QBs in the league. Carr/Higgins shouldn't get that done without these circumstances. 

But ok, for topic's sake, JimmyG/Higgins. 
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Higgins was being picked first in startups before this Watson mess began.

 
I only play in one QB leagues and in those leagues I'm not sure how valuable Watson is but I'm going to use my best estimate to say in the 11-12 range before any of this happened. Different leagues maybe more but I'm talking FFPC, my guess is getting that for him would have been challenging in those leagues before this went down.

So now? Let me look at this from angle of what I'd need to trade Watson, who I own on some teams.  If I'm comping him to draft picks I still would not move him for a lot less then that 11/12 that I'm not even sure I could have got and I know that sounds strange but where I'm at . Early second, probably? Mid second? Not so sure. Late second? No way. This may not be exactly what JohnyU and Mac are saying but maybe along those lines is I'm just not dealing him for some late round second low odds of hitting shot. I'd ride this out before I did that because elite matters, even in a one QB format.

 
OK, so this is going off the rails quickly - thank you, Mac, for your thoughts as a Watson owner. 

The topic is about what would someone offer. 

So I'll ask @MAC_32 first - you have Watson in one league & you're clearly a hold unless you get pre-controversy value.  Would you, in another league, go out trying to buy low on Watson? 

If so, what would you offer? 

 
menobrown said:
I only play in one QB leagues and in those leagues I'm not sure how valuable Watson is but I'm going to use my best estimate to say in the 11-12 range before any of this happened. Different leagues maybe more but I'm talking FFPC, my guess is getting that for him would have been challenging in those leagues before this went down.

So now? Let me look at this from angle of what I'd need to trade Watson, who I own on some teams.  If I'm comping him to draft picks I still would not move him for a lot less then that 11/12 that I'm not even sure I could have got and I know that sounds strange but where I'm at . Early second, probably? Mid second? Not so sure. Late second? No way. This may not be exactly what JohnyU and Mac are saying but maybe along those lines is I'm just not dealing him for some late round second low odds of hitting shot. I'd ride this out before I did that because elite matters, even in a one QB format.
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That's a reasonable answer. As a Watson owner, you're a hold. But if you were out shopping for him after you heard his owner sigh deeply and mutter, "this sucks, my team's screwed!" what  would you offer? 

Or would you not pursue him? 

 
menobrown said:
I only play in one QB leagues and in those leagues I'm not sure how valuable Watson is but I'm going to use my best estimate to say in the 11-12 range before any of this happened. Different leagues maybe more but I'm talking FFPC, my guess is getting that for him would have been challenging in those leagues before this went down.

So now? Let me look at this from angle of what I'd need to trade Watson, who I own on some teams.  If I'm comping him to draft picks I still would not move him for a lot less then that 11/12 that I'm not even sure I could have got and I know that sounds strange but where I'm at . Early second, probably? Mid second? Not so sure. Late second? No way. This may not be exactly what JohnyU and Mac are saying but maybe along those lines is I'm just not dealing him for some late round second low odds of hitting shot. I'd ride this out before I did that because elite matters, even in a one QB format.
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It isn't exactly what I'm saying, but you got the general point. There's no good reason to trade him for second rate players and there's no good reason someone else should offer you a comparable player. So he's a hold.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
So you think it'll end up like the Tyreek situation? 
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I don’t know but I doubt it would help my team a whole lot selling him cheap.  I’d rather take the chance on Watson or sink with him than suffer the humiliation of selling him for peanuts and this doesn’t sink Watson.  I have hin in three leagues, but in one of them (devy) I have Lawrence and another I have Josh Allen and Burrow.  The third one I’m screwed, but I have lots of picks.  

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
That's a reasonable answer. As a Watson owner, you're a hold. But if you were out shopping for him after you heard his owner sigh deeply and mutter, "this sucks, my team's screwed!" what  would you offer? 

Or would you not pursue him? 
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The reason I answered with what I would need to deal him was because as someone who owns him I found it easier to relate to that part of the equation. The reason I did not say what I'd pay for him is I have an elite QB on every team, all one start QB leagues, so not heavily in the market for one.

But more I consider it I'm stuck on roster space now but in about 2 weeks when I can expand roster room I have two teams with Kyler Murray and no viable #2 and I have late seconds in those leagues and I'd pay that.

 
He was traded for the 1.06 in one of my start 1QB leagues in January before all the Texans and him falling out news hit. I doubt he would draw any 1st at this time except maybe from someone who’s got extras and is planning a multi-year rebuild who really thinks he’s going to come out of this mostly clean. I’d probably pay an early 2nd as that is generally the going rate in my leagues for young QB’s showing promise that haven’t hit elite tier yet.

I’d set the over/under as at least a 1 year suspension barring some development like a lot of these cases getting thrown out. I would not discount the effect the MeToo movement has had these past few years and how much more severe a punishment might get handed out. Zeke got 6 games for a much more dubious claim and there was only 1 woman that time. After that you get to deal with the will he or won’t he get traded and where shenanigans again.

Edit: Zeke’s was under the domestic violence policy which mandated 6 games, no idea what Watson’s alleged actions fall under, I assume it will be Goodell’s perogitive.

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
OK, so this is going off the rails quickly - thank you, Mac, for your thoughts as a Watson owner. 

The topic is about what would someone offer. 

So I'll ask @MAC_32 first - you have Watson in one league & you're clearly a hold unless you get pre-controversy value.  Would you, in another league, go out trying to buy low on Watson? 

If so, what would you offer? 
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I would not initiate any offer right now. I'd engage if they make their interests known, but won't think about an offer until after that happened. 

 
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