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49ers jump up to #3 pick in draft


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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

If what Dan said about Fields is true then I could see the slip.  But if not (and teams have plenty of time to do their DD on him) then I think there's a 50% chance or so that SF takes him.  Or that Atlanta takes him or trades the pick to someone who does (like you suggest they should)

Atlanta really needs to figure out what direction they want to take this franchise.

The Falcons defense has been a dumpster fire in 7 of the past 9 seasons, ranking in the 20's most years and all the way down to 32nd in the league. Even in their Super Bowl season, they scored 100 points more than 30 other teams, but they couldn't overcome their porous defense. Not to beat a dead horse, but taking a successor to Ryan won't fix anything.

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I'm going to say right here right now they will pick Lance over Fields.

Very much a winner.

This is why FBG pays me zero dollars for sharing my NFL acumen.

Just now, Anarchy99 said:

The Falcons defense has been a dumpster fire in 7 of the past 9 seasons, ranking in the 20's most years and all the way down to 32nd in the league. Even in their Super Bowl season, they scored 100 points more than 30 other teams, but they couldn't overcome their porous defense. Not to beat a dead horse, but taking a successor to Ryan won't fix anything.

True. But are they really going to be contenders in the next 2 years? 

Ryan would be a perfect trade to a contender without a qb. But Indy, sf, chi (oof), etc all filled those gaps and no way they trade him to the Saints. 

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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

True. But are they really going to be contenders in the next 2 years? 

Ryan would be a perfect trade to a contender without a qb. But Indy, sf, chi (oof), etc all filled those gaps and no way they trade him to the Saints. 

I already explained and outlined why I think having someone sit for 2 years is counterproductive, that Ryan could be productive well past 2 years, that UNNAMED ROOKIE QB could take years to MAYBE be as productive as Ryan, and that trading Ryan will logistically be much harder than it looks. No point in belaboring and rehashing that all again.

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Just now, Anarchy99 said:

I already explained and outlined why I think having someone sit for 2 years is counterproductive, that Ryan could be productive well past 2 years, that UNNAMED ROOKIE QB could take years to MAYBE be as productive as Ryan, and that trading Ryan will logistically be much harder than it looks. No point in belaboring and rehashing that all again.

Ya I'm not disagreeing with you. I think it would be dumb to sit a rookie behind Ryan for 2 yrs.  So I agree that they either move on from him now or after 1 season and go qb, or trade the pick. 

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44 minutes ago, Deamon said:

It's his game on these boards.  Calls others trolls while he does it plenty himself.

Yes, joking about something with an obvious tongue-in-cheek emoticon is obviously trolling. Good job, inspector.

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31 minutes ago, Deamon said:

True. But are they really going to be contenders in the next 2 years? 

Ryan would be a perfect trade to a contender without a qb. But Indy, sf, chi (oof), etc all filled those gaps and no way they trade him to the Saints. 

Ryan isn't a trade option this year because of his contract. He's not exactly a trade option next year either for the same reason. The Falcons are saddled with Ryan until 2023, so they have to build around him whether they like it or not.

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42 minutes ago, Edgar said:

Ryan isn't a trade option this year because of his contract. He's not exactly a trade option next year either for the same reason. The Falcons are saddled with Ryan until 2023, so they have to build around him whether they like it or not.

Ya, fair.  So many holes though, they're better off to trade back and pick up lots of defensive talent than simply taking Sewell there.

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Still not sure why analysts are so hung up on Shanahan wanting to draft the hypothetical lovechild of Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins... I mean yea sure he's gotten to superbowls with Ryan and Garp... but his dad was the one that won superbowls with the likes of Young and Elway... guys that can salvage plays w/ their legs. Even the first and only QB Shanny's ever drafted had some juice in this regard.

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I think it will be Justin Fields when the smoke clears.  I just don't buy Mac Jones.  I can see Trey Lance over Jones and Fields if they really want to try to build the six million dollar man (no pun intended). I think Fields because he is more ready than Lance but still has the legs. Mac Jones looks he can run for a dairy queen soft cone but not going to give you any mobility or at lease not remotely what Fields and Lance can do and Field is the more right now ready for the 49ers.

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On 3/31/2021 at 5:27 PM, Anarchy99 said:

I get that the 2021 Dolphins are completely different than the 2001 Patriots and the game is played much differently now. I don't know what "setting up Tua to succeed" ultimately means. More beef and protection is nice. An elite playmaker would be nice. A hot shot rookie RB would be helpful. A generational TE could add a lot of sizzle. And that's if they opt to use early picks on offense. 

That being said, in the draft the year Brady first started (ie BEFORE he took over for Bledsoe), NE took Richard Seymour in the first round of the draft followed by Matt Light. That gave NE a starting OL of Light, Mike Compton, Damien Woody, Joe Andruzzi, and Greg Randall. Light would develop into something, as would Woody, but I wouldn't call that a GRADE A front line. The rest of their draft that year was trash.

The following draft they took TE Daniel Graham (who was a decent blocker) followed by Deion Branch. They also hit on David Givens in the 7th round. While I know the Pats and Fins are different, it's not like the Patriots of the day really surrounded Brady with high profile guys. The first two drafts in his era they used only one pick on offense . . . and it was for a blocking TE.

The 3rd draft in the Brady era they spent 4 of their 5 first draft picks on defense and the only offensive player mixed in was WR Bethel Johnson. Once again, they did little to get help for Brady (which would be a common theme for YEARS).

My point being NE didn't really go out of their way to ensure Brady's success by getting him help through the draft. In that era, they didn't even bring in help via free agency. Brady sunk or swim with what he had to work with.

Jumping ahead to 2021, I legitimately wonder what MIA should do to ensure Tua succeeds because I don't know what the really means. IMO, if the Dolphins really have to worry about configuring their team around Tua to ensure his success, that right away almost sounds like they don't fully believe in Tua. I think MIA needs to do whatever they think makes their team better. I think Tua will be Tua and they will be able to access how he does this year regardless.

20 year sampling. BB sucks at drafting and is an all timer at coaching. 

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15 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

The Falcons defense has been a dumpster fire in 7 of the past 9 seasons, ranking in the 20's most years and all the way down to 32nd in the league. Even in their Super Bowl season, they scored 100 points more than 30 other teams, but they couldn't overcome their porous defense. Not to beat a dead horse, but taking a successor to Ryan won't fix anything.

It wasn’t their porous defense that cost them that game it was terrible play-calling on offense with the lead.

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11 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It wasn’t their porous defense that cost them that game it was terrible play-calling on offense with the lead.

I will grant you that poor play calling and execution on offense was a huge part of ATL losing the SB. But the defense allowed 350+ yards of offense across 5 consecutive TD drives by NE to end the game in 27 minutes of football. So sure, if the Falcons got one more first down on offense they likely would of won. But they had 5 tries to get a stop on defense and couldn’t. No matter what the offense did or didn’t do, the defense was next to invisible at the end of that game. 

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4 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I will grant you that poor play calling and execution on offense was a huge part of ATL losing the SB. But the defense allowed 350+ yards of offense across 5 consecutive TD drives by NE to end the game in 27 minutes of football. So sure, if the Falcons got one more first down on offense they likely would of won. But they had 5 tries to get a stop on defense and couldn’t. No matter what the offense did or didn’t do, the defense was next to invisible at the end of that game. 

But the Falcons wouldn’t have got those 5 tries at getting a stop on defense if Shanahan didn’t choke the game away with his play-calling.

You can spin things a lot of ways to fit any narrative you like but you’re being disingenuous when you bring up their SuperBowl loss. 

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15 hours ago, rockaction said:

Yes, joking about something with an obvious tongue-in-cheek emoticon is obviously trolling. Good job, inspector.

Just ignore him going forward. 

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

But the Falcons wouldn’t have got those 5 tries at getting a stop on defense if Shanahan didn’t choke the game away with his play-calling.

You can spin things a lot of ways to fit any narrative you like but you’re being disingenuous when you bring up their SuperBowl loss. 

I wasn’t trying to comment at all about the offense, as I have been saying all along that the offense hasn’t been the problem and therefore doesn’t need to be blown up and Ryan removed as QB. 

My broader point was the defense has been the weak link. I am not disagreeing with you that ATL should have won the SB with better play calling down the stretch (same thing with SF a couple of years ago).  

None of that changes that the Falcons allowed NE close to 600 yards of offense and 34 points . . . with the huge majority of that in the second half. If you want to come away with the impression that they had a great defensive effort that day, so be it. 

I had no intention on commenting on the SB game at all. The only reason they got that far that season was due to the high scoring offense.

That doesn’t change the fact that their defense has been one of the weaker performing units over the last decade. And that all ties in to whether drafting a QB at 4 helps the team all that much when it’s the defense that has been the thorn in their side.  

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16 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

The Falcons defense has been a dumpster fire in 7 of the past 9 seasons, ranking in the 20's most years and all the way down to 32nd in the league. Even in their Super Bowl season, they scored 100 points more than 30 other teams, but they couldn't overcome their porous defense. Not to beat a dead horse, but taking a successor to Ryan won't fix anything.

Patrick surtain brings instant credibility to that defense

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One more tidbit on the Falcons defense. I was curious how they performed stacked across the entire NFL over the last 5 years. In that time, they ranked 22nd in points allowed and 25th in yardage allowed. They allowed 508 more points than the team that allowed the fewest points (NE) and 4,125 more yards than the team that allowed the fewest yards (BAL).

Most of the teams in the bottom tier of defenses have not been that competitive across the majority of that time. The teams ranked worse than ATL were TB, NYJ, CIN, DET, CLE, MIA, and LV (and based off of last year, TB, CLE, and MIA appear to be headed in the right direction). 

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4 minutes ago, thecatch said:

That says the Niners love Wilson, but it doesn’t say they traded up with the expectation they’d get him. 

Yes, I suppose it was poor wording, and I have edited it, but later on in the article it says they’re still looking for ways to pull it off.

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59 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Yes, I suppose it was poor wording, and I have edited it, but later on in the article it says they’re still looking for ways to pull it off.

Doesn’t sound realistic unless Wilson pulls an Eli Manning. I mean, I’m sure SF would love it even more if Trevor Lawrence were available at #3. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Yes, I suppose it was poor wording, and I have edited it, but later on in the article it says they’re still looking for ways to pull it off.

 

17 minutes ago, thecatch said:

Doesn’t sound realistic unless Wilson pulls an Eli Manning. I mean, I’m sure SF would love it even more if Trevor Lawrence were available at #3. 

Just because Wilson had his pro day a couple weeks before fields doesn’t mean the Jets are taking him. As I mentioned upthread, about 1/2 of the mocks in Jan/Feb had fields as the #2 qb, and a lot as #2 pick. 
 

Wilson being consensus pick 2 because he had a throw where he was booting one way and threw across the field (something most coaches will say “don’t do that”) is like saying the Seahawks will trade russel Wilson all off-season. They need something to talk about. In fact, I think it’s ridiculous that Mac Jones is getting more love for the 3 pick than fields is getting. What am I missing, other than OSU qbs haven’t produced, which again, isn’t a good reason to ignore someone in the draft?

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19 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

 

Just because Wilson had his pro day a couple weeks before fields doesn’t mean the Jets are taking him. As I mentioned upthread, about 1/2 of the mocks in Jan/Feb had fields as the #2 qb, and a lot as #2 pick. 
 

Wilson being consensus pick 2 because he had a throw where he was booting one way and threw across the field (something most coaches will say “don’t do that”) is like saying the Seahawks will trade russel Wilson all off-season. They need something to talk about.

[quote] Former BYU and 49ers QB Steve Young told SF radio station KNBR the 49ers' "No. 1 choice" is BYU QB Zach Wilson, but Young believes the Jets are sold on him with the No. 2 pick. He said "there's no question in my mind" the 49ers prefer Wilson, but "I just don't know how they get it done. The Jets have committed to Zach and recruited the family." Young, an ESPN analyst, said he spoke to members of the Jets' coaching staff. He said Wilson's family "would love" Zach to end up in SF. [/quote]

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8 minutes ago, thecatch said:

[quote] Former BYU and 49ers QB Steve Young told SF radio station KNBR the 49ers' "No. 1 choice" is BYU QB Zach Wilson, but Young believes the Jets are sold on him with the No. 2 pick. He said "there's no question in my mind" the 49ers prefer Wilson, but "I just don't know how they get it done. The Jets have committed to Zach and recruited the family." Young, an ESPN analyst, said he spoke to members of the Jets' coaching staff. He said Wilson's family "would love" Zach to end up in SF. [/quote]

Ha, Okaaaay.

 

Pretty subtle, Steve.  

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22 hours ago, Edgar said:

Ryan isn't a trade option this year because of his contract. He's not exactly a trade option next year either for the same reason. The Falcons are saddled with Ryan until 2023, so they have to build around him whether they like it or not.

As we've seen this year teams will take a dead cap hit to get out from under a QB, I don't think we can say with certainty that the Falcons are married to Ryan beyond this year.

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42 minutes ago, Foosball God said:

As we've seen this year teams will take a dead cap hit to get out from under a QB, I don't think we can say with certainty that the Falcons are married to Ryan beyond this year.

Seen from this year????

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On 4/2/2021 at 4:41 PM, Faust said:

Interesting.  I really thought all this Jones stuff was smoke.  That would be so bold to pick that guy at 3.  I get he likely wouldn't be there at 12 and you can't take that risk, but couldn't they have given up only a single first rounder to philly for the 6th pick??  Were they really worried about Atlanta or a Dolphins trade partner taking Mac in the top 4 picks? 

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5 hours ago, Deamon said:

Interesting.  I really thought all this Jones stuff was smoke.  That would be so bold to pick that guy at 3.  I get he likely wouldn't be there at 12 and you can't take that risk, but couldn't they have given up only a single first rounder to philly for the 6th pick??  Were they really worried about Atlanta or a Dolphins trade partner taking Mac in the top 4 picks? 

If this is true this is not good in my opinion.  That's way to high for Jones.  A guy that has a lot of red flags.  Mortgage the future for that kind of risk is a crazy move

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On 4/2/2021 at 3:45 PM, Foosball God said:

As we've seen this year teams will take a dead cap hit to get out from under a QB, I don't think we can say with certainty that the Falcons are married to Ryan beyond this year.

Here is his contract...if I am reading it correctly the dead cap hit for 21 and 22 is monstrous:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/matt-ryan-3983/

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1 minute ago, pantherclub said:

Yep. You can argue he is there for 3 more years.   

It would really hurt that philosophy of winning while the QB is on a rookie deal with Ryan's deal hanging over this...I could see Lance making some sense since he is so raw and would need a lot of seasoning before taking over but I can't see Ryan being happy becoming a place-holder...would not be surprised to see the Falcons cash in on this pick with a QB needy team.

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29 minutes ago, Boston said:

It would really hurt that philosophy of winning while the QB is on a rookie deal with Ryan's deal hanging over this...I could see Lance making some sense since he is so raw and would need a lot of seasoning before taking over but I can't see Ryan being happy becoming a place-holder...would not be surprised to see the Falcons cash in on this pick with a QB needy team.

My gut says picking Pitts makes ATL an automatic playoff team but my brain says drafting surtain immediately turns around that defense.  So either selection makes the falcons better from the jump but picking a qb hopefully will pay dividends in a few seasons.  If I was a fan of that team I would want either of the first 2 options probably leaning toward pitts.

 

Their offense would be unstoppable with julio, mike davis, riddley and then pitts.  Thats sick

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28 minutes ago, Boston said:

It would really hurt that philosophy of winning while the QB is on a rookie deal with Ryan's deal hanging over this...I could see Lance making some sense since he is so raw and would need a lot of seasoning before taking over but I can't see Ryan being happy becoming a place-holder...would not be surprised to see the Falcons cash in on this pick with a QB needy team.

And you have Panthers/Broncos both probably willing to talk.  Two teams should mean they get a premium.  And at 8/9, you get to still get one of the top non-QB players.  

Ryan's contract is: Next year he has a 40 mill cap hit to cut him, that's crazy.  (2023, it's only 15 mill, so if he is cut/traded then, no problem.)

Thing is, his cap number is 48 mill!!  They still would clear 8 mill in cap space.  And have no dead money the following year.  

It's not likely, and probably not even recommended.  But not impossible financially.  

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3 hours ago, Boston said:

Here is his contract...if I am reading it correctly the dead cap hit for 21 and 22 is monstrous:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/matt-ryan-3983/

They may do this if they don't go QB at 4 but I think if they do that Atlanta will do what I keep hearing people say they won't and that is get rid of Ryan via trade or release after the 2021 season.

The dead money hit would be enormous, about $40.5M but it's still saving a ton of cap space as he'd count an incredible $48M against the cap in 2022 alone. I mean it's $40M in dead cap but it's another $51M on top of that to keep him in 22 and 23. Also it's not like they get past 2022 and it's all good, they'd still face a $15M dead money hit if they released him in 2023.

So way I see it next offseason Atlanta will have to decide if Matt Ryan will count $48M against their cap in 2022 and then face another $15M hit in 2023 or they can just cut him and spread out the $40M dead money over two years.

If they pick a QB at 4  I think it's going to be an easy decision.

We just saw the Eagles eat $33.5M dead money on Wentz, it's not like we've not seen it.

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2 hours ago, massraider said:

And you have Panthers/Broncos both probably willing to talk.  Two teams should mean they get a premium.  And at 8/9, you get to still get one of the top non-QB players.  

Ryan's contract is: Next year he has a 40 mill cap hit to cut him, that's crazy.  (2023, it's only 15 mill, so if he is cut/traded then, no problem.)

Thing is, his cap number is 48 mill!!  They still would clear 8 mill in cap space.  And have no dead money the following year.  

It's not likely, and probably not even recommended.  But not impossible financially.  

I should have read this first before I posted.

Everything you say here is correct, I just think they might take the hit next year instead of having him count $48M against the 2022 cap.

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I was thinking if SF really goes with Mac Jones it likely means at least one of Lance or Fields is available at 6.

I've seen Dolphins trade up to 6 getting bad reviews.  Maybe they did it to assure themselves the second or third best non-QB in the draft, but I can't help but think they got enough intel in their trade talks to take a gamble that Cincy won't move out of 5 and they can auction pick 6 and that 5th QB to Carolina, NE or WFT. If they pulled something like that off I'd say Chris Grier's just did one of the most masterful jobs I've ever seen a GM do with his picks. That's if a situation like this unfolded.

All I know is SF getting that 1.3 sure made anticipation for this draft extra high.

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On 3/30/2021 at 12:43 PM, Dr. Octopus said:

If people want to believe Saleh told the 49ers who the Jets were taking, I'd rather not even bother trying to convince them otherwise. It seems hopeless.

Even if he told them the 49ers would be stupid to believe it.  Saleh isn't the decision maker and word is that Douglass hasn't told ANYONE who he is taking, just like the Browns did in 2018.

It seems like everyone has forgotten 2018.  We don't know who the Jets are taking at 2.  I don't care at all about big click bait media circular reporting that its sure to be Wilson. 

 

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Did anyone stop to think that the bad Fields stuff is being put out by teams at the 8 and 9 spots who are desperate for a way to get a QB? 

This time a year you'd be a fool to believe ANYTHING you hear from a team or a water carrying click baiter told you a team said. 

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3 hours ago, pantherclub said:

My gut says picking Pitts makes ATL an automatic playoff team but my brain says drafting surtain immediately turns around that defense.  So either selection makes the falcons better from the jump but picking a qb hopefully will pay dividends in a few seasons.  If I was a fan of that team I would want either of the first 2 options probably leaning toward pitts.

 

Their offense would be unstoppable with julio, mike davis, riddley and then pitts.  Thats sick

Yes, a rookie tight end will make the team with the 4th overall pick an automatic playoff team.  :lol:

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57 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

Yep

Drafting a pass catcher at 4 in the face of teams offering multiple firsts to move up a few spots would be absolute malpractice, given the hit rate of these picks.   That doesn't mean it won't happen, of course. 

Betting that a rookie TE will be a difference maker in their rookie year is a very bad bet to be making. It would be the first time that has happened in the modern era. 

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5 hours ago, menobrown said:

They may do this if they don't go QB at 4 but I think if they do that Atlanta will do what I keep hearing people say they won't and that is get rid of Ryan via trade or release after the 2021 season.

The dead money hit would be enormous, about $40.5M but it's still saving a ton of cap space as he'd count an incredible $48M against the cap in 2022 alone. I mean it's $40M in dead cap but it's another $51M on top of that to keep him in 22 and 23. Also it's not like they get past 2022 and it's all good, they'd still face a $15M dead money hit if they released him in 2023.

So way I see it next offseason Atlanta will have to decide if Matt Ryan will count $48M against their cap in 2022 and then face another $15M hit in 2023 or they can just cut him and spread out the $40M dead money over two years.

If they pick a QB at 4  I think it's going to be an easy decision.

We just saw the Eagles eat $33.5M dead money on Wentz, it's not like we've not seen it.

Maybe Ryan will restructure?   Ryan still seems like a good enough QB.  I can’t believe that ATL doesn’t address the D with the pick or move back and then address the D with both picks.  

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14 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

Maybe Ryan will restructure?   Ryan still seems like a good enough QB.  I can’t believe that ATL doesn’t address the D with the pick or move back and then address the D with both picks.  

The problem for ATL is they guaranteed Ryan $94.5 million with $46.5 million of it as a signing bonus. But at the time they gave him an extension, they made his cap hit relatively low and pushed most of the cap hit into the future. 

His salary this year is only $2 million. The veteran minimum salary for him would be $1.05 million. The most they could shave off this year is under a $1 million. His salary jumps up to $16 million then $20 million the next two years. They could renegotiate that part of his contract, but that won’t help much in having to take the unaccounted for cap hit for all the bonus money they already paid him. 

Essentially they could reduce his annual cap number the next two seasons but not the dead cap money if they trade or release him. 

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