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49ers jump up to #3 pick in draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Anarchy99
- Start date
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Rather than cutting Ryan and drafting the 4th QB it would make a LOT more sense to trade that pick for as much future capital as possible and Roll with Ryan.
Dont draft the QB right NOW and never even get the advantage of extra cap space, not to mention its gonna probably be your 3rd or 4th ranked QB that you take.
If they plan for the inevitable for maybe 2023, they can still try and compete right now and who knows, then in a couple years they can try and go that route using the extra draft capital.
Dont draft the QB right NOW and never even get the advantage of extra cap space, not to mention its gonna probably be your 3rd or 4th ranked QB that you take.
If they plan for the inevitable for maybe 2023, they can still try and compete right now and who knows, then in a couple years they can try and go that route using the extra draft capital.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
My thoughts as well. The O should be good enough. Build up the D. Replace Ryan when his play drops off.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Or *IF* their preferred guy - let's say Fields - drops, then you take him; and trade Ryan for what should be a decent amount of current and/or future draft capital. Yes, you take a $40 MM dead cap charge for 2021 (but also free up ~$8 in cap to sign a defender or two this year); and then in 2022 and beyond, the albatross Ryan contract is off the books, and you have a (potentially) stud QB on a rookie contract for four more years + $40 MM in freed cap to build around him.
Deamon
Footballguy
Trade him to who though? What contender is looking for a QB right now? (they won't trade within the div)
Deamon
Footballguy
I don't think it's any secret that they'd probably want to move back and take defense. So who will move up now that CAR has their qb? Gotta think Denver
Snorkelson
Footballguy
styleride85
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Detroit has hitched themselves to Goff. They have the same problems as ATL with Ryan in terms of drafting a QB. They already ate $19M in cap space by trading Stafford. Now they are on the hook for $40.8M in cap accounting for Goff. That only drops to $30.5M in dead money if they want to move on after this year. So same deal as the Falcons. Either you sit the hot shot rookie on a cheap deal for multiple years or your highest paid player watches the rookie play with no good way to get out of his contract. The other options are trade down and gain more picks or draft a player that could be an impact player immediately. Both of those make more sense to a GM hoping to keep his job.
-OZ-
Footballguy
You may be right. I thought the Panthers could grab one. I don't want Jones in NE, but that has potential.
I like Jones in Minnesota or Washington.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Ryan's Cap hit is almost $27M this season regardless of his base salary of $2M according to Spotrac and it would cost over $65M in dead cap space to flat out release him...it just doesn't make a lot of sense for them to Draft QB at #4, be much better if they took a large package to move back and do whatever they have to in building a fearsome OL to run those weapons behind Ryan, get a decent RB in the 2nd or 3rd they can actually use to help the Offense in 2021, they could compete.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I have posted multiple times that the ATL offense is fine but their defense has been terrible. They don’t need help on offense compared to their defense. They should trade #4 for a boatload of picks and load up on impact defenders.
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
I think Denver either trades back or they take the choice of Sewell (hey, I can dream), Surtain or Parsons.
O-Line, CB and LB are the biggest needs of this team. I really wish Denver would have brought in Fitzpatrick as mentor/backup for Lock.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Let's say they did trade Ryan. They SHOULD trade him within the division. Why not weaken your rival starting in a couple years when you hope to be competing.
Trading within the division should be preferred target.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I still don’t get the hate for Ryan. His numbers and play have still been in the top half of the league and within the past few years he had back-to-back Top 10 seasons. He just played his age 35 season. The Falcons offense has weapons. Brady just won the SB at 43 and is coming back for more. Brees played until he was 41.
At this point it, the cap hit to Atlanta would be a death knell. Ryan could not only play out his contract but play long enough to play out another contract.
Ryan or a rookie QB cannot change the fact that the Falcons defense has been a Bottom 5 unit (and one year ranked dead last). Trading Ryan to the Saints would make them one of the favorites in the NFC. And the Panthers would instantly be way better. Meanwhile, ATL would be even weaker for at least two seasons (QB play would be worse and cap hit would bury them).
Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
The 49ers should trade the 3rd pick to the Packers for Aaron Rogers. They could turn that into at least two 1st rounders and some change.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Outside the top 10, maybe even out of the first. Lance looks like he has the tools but is a huge risk, having played in a small conference and hasn’t played in a year. Jones played one year and had a really good supporting cast- and just read his strengths/weaknesses. “Wins with accuracy and football smarts, good leader” doesn’t get you drafted in the top 10 with a noodle arm. Instincts, goes through progressions, lacks arm talent to drive the ball downfield. That’s not a top 10 guy. Draft community and talking heads are wrong here imo. Lance has the tools but lacks experience/high level competition. Jones played vs high level competition but lacks some of the tools you look for in an nfl qb.styleride85 said:
Carolina could still take one, but it’s less likely now. Denver could take one. New England could take one. Washington is looking to win now; I’d be surprised if they take one. Pittsburgh could be in play. Tampa could be a dark horse, or maybe someone trades back into the 1st. The qb market has settled in, and I’m not sure some of these teams are going to pass on other talent for a guy who isn’t going to start right away.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Atlanta isn’t as bad as their record. They played several games last year where they were up by a decent margin and let the other team come back. Simply adding an ok rb (Davis) probably adds 1-2 wins. I’m not sure there will be a team willing to pay to move up to 4 for a qb. Makes more sense to take parsons, surtain, Sewell, or pitts there. Sure, trading back makes sense; I just don’t see the demand. I think you’ve got the right angle here.Anarchy99 said:
pantherclub
Footballguy
Surtain solves 80% of their problems on defenseAnarchy99 said:
Foosball God
Foos
Normally I would agree, but trading Ryan with only a couple years until retirement and getting draft capital from a division rival isn't a bad thing.
massraider
Footballguy
Tannebaum on ESPN and Jeremiah both had Lance at #4 to ATL in their newest mocks.
For whatever that's worth. Which is very little. If you are ATL, and you want to go fishing for a trade, this is how you do it.
I did read a rumor that the GM is thinking QB, but Blank believes Ryan has 2+ years left. That seems easy to believe. A buddy of mine is friends with Ryan, I met him once or twice. Blank and Ryan are pretty close, going back to when Blank told him before the draft to pack some luggage when he went to the draft in NYC, because he wasn't gonna be home soon.
Tue to his word, Ryan did his interviews after he was selected, and Blank was like, "Alright kid, jet's gassed up, let's go, you have some coach meetings tomorrow."
For whatever that's worth. Which is very little. If you are ATL, and you want to go fishing for a trade, this is how you do it.
I did read a rumor that the GM is thinking QB, but Blank believes Ryan has 2+ years left. That seems easy to believe. A buddy of mine is friends with Ryan, I met him once or twice. Blank and Ryan are pretty close, going back to when Blank told him before the draft to pack some luggage when he went to the draft in NYC, because he wasn't gonna be home soon.
Tue to his word, Ryan did his interviews after he was selected, and Blank was like, "Alright kid, jet's gassed up, let's go, you have some coach meetings tomorrow."
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think you misread the blurb:
ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot wants to draft QB Trey Lance with the No. 4 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, while head coach Arthur Smith believes Matt Ryan has at least two good years left.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I love hot takes and opinions from people that really aren't that embedded in the football universe. The reporter lists that he covers politics, the coronavirus pandemic, and sports (which if you look at his articles is pretty much the order that he covers things). The last time he tweeted anything about the 49ers was the end of March (almost 2 weeks ago). It does not appear that he regularly reports on the Niners, so I wouldn't call him a beat reporter or all that close to the team.
I'm pretty sure Kyle Shannahan knows what players are best for his team and his system. If that means they draft Mac Jones, who is anyone to judge until things play out? Shanahan seemed to get decent play out of Matt Schaub, RGIII (briefly), Kirk Cousins (at least developmentally), had a winning record in Cleveland with Brian Hoyer (!), got MVP-level performance and a SB appearance from Matt Ryan, and got the Niners to the SB with Jimmy Garoppolo. Shanahan seems to have issues closing out games that were effectively already won, but he does appear to be able to get QBs to be productive.
We all have opinions, and this reporter's opinion is no better or worse than that of anyone here. But if SF does draft Jones and he becomes a consistent starter and producer for them, no one will consider drafting him a fireable offense. Chances are several of the Round 1 rookies won't pan out . . . so should all the coaches that move up to draft players that end up underperforming be fired?
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I don't love Shanahan, but he generally has fielded competent offenses and had some years with decent teams. Is he the cat's meow as coaches go? No. But I would give him credit for wanting to move on from Jimmy G. (who I thing is average or below average despite winning at a high rate). Certainly the moving up thing could eventually blow up in Shanahan's face, but I remember some people openly questioning why the Chiefs would move on from Alex Smith when he had just led the league in passer rating and had taken the Chiefs to the playoffs 4 times . . . in favor of moving up to take Mahomes, who at the time wasn't universally considered a top prospect. There were folks that had Mahomes lumped in with the Nathan Peterman's and Deshone Kizer's of the world that draft, and not everyone felt he would be a first round pick.
So no, I am not the President of the Kyle Shanahan Fan Club, but I think we should at least she what happens before immediately firing him should the Niners draft Jones. I wouldn't have moved up that far for Jones, but I'm not an NFL head coach.
socrates
Footballguy
To give up 3 first round picks in March, the Niners must have had a definite plan that included at least the top 3 QBs. We know what the the price to move up From Pick #12 to Pick #6 was, and it would have saved them a future first round pick.
Unless the Niners had some information that another team or teams were targeting Mac Jones in the top 5 (or at least a reasonable suspicion), it does not make a lot of sense that they are drafting Jones. By all accounts, it is simply not necessary to move all the way up to #3 to get Mac Jones. Admittedly, I am not a scout, I have never played one on TV, and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
I am okay with overpaying for (and overdrafting) a prospect that you are simply unwilling to miss out on, but Mac Jones does not strike me as that type of a player. Perhaps he is, in which case Lynch and Shanahan will be lauded for this move.
The only way this move really makes sense is if the Niners believe there is a clear drop-off in talent and fit between the top 3 and the next two. Let us assume that Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are the top 2 QBs in this class, as most now project them to be drafted 1-2. Is Mac Jones either more talented or a better scheme fit for Shanahan's offense than both Justin Fields and Trey Lance, such that the Niners would not have felt comfortable moving up to the #6 pick and taking the best QB remaining?
Why would you make a bold, gambler's move up in the draft to take a safe pick? That is what Mac Jones represents to me; he is a QB who could play within Shanahan's system and probably do fairly well. He is Jared Goff at the Rams. Go big or go home!
chinawildman
Footballguy
I would argue that if they take Jones and he's Goff-ish, AND Fields or Lance become the next Mahomes or Josh Allen, that would make twice in this regime that they've had a shot at a franchise QB and passed. And whether fair or not the perception will be that they're behind the curve and unable to appreciate the importance of a mobile QB in today's game.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Absolutely not, and I think that is the irony in all the "analysis" I've been reading. Everybody has universally labeled the "shanahan QB" as being in the mold of a Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Garappolo, Matt Schaub kinda guy...
Yet prior to his recent legal troubles, there was serious mutual interest between the 49ers and DeShaun Watson. Nobody seemed to have any issue with Watson not fitting the "shanahan QB" mold... so then isn't it logical to conclude that the niners are now moving on to find the next Deshaun Watson (who I believe has been brought up as a comp for Fields) as opposed to the next Jimmy Garoppolo?
rockaction
Footballguy
Especially given Shanahan's comments about adjusting to a mobile quarterback and that times change. You'd have to think they'd be taking Fields at number three if the Jets take Wilson.chinawildman said:
Then again, they may have moved up to get Jones. Remember when another really good offensive mind, Josh McDaniels, moved up to take the retrospectively awful Tebow when McDaniels was in charge of the Broncos? That cost him a first-rounder to do, IIRC.
I do think Shanahan is the cat’s meow as far as coaches go, but this whole narrative that he deserves blind faith in picking QBs (that at least one prominent Niners beat writer is pushing hard) doesn’t hold water for me. He also wanted Jimmy, Beathard, Hoyer, Mullens, Cousins, etc... that’s not the QB-selecting track record of someone who can’t be second guessed.Anarchy99 said:
LawFitz
Footballguy
Shanny is playing all of you. He will personally sprint to the podium, do a cart wheel, flash his wang, then select Justin Strawberry Fields. And all of you will then praise his boy genius for Jedi tricking the entire process, as you crown him for making the right call despite the Mac Jones sirens.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I fail to see the end game here. They have the #3. If they choose another QB at 3, what exactly have they gained?
MAC_32
Footballguy
It isn't Shanahan. It's the media giving their target audience what they want. If their audience disengages on the topic then they'll talk and write about something else.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Took some thought, but I've decided on this angle...
You are Kyle Shanahan. You love Justin Fields. He is the QB you love the most. More than Lawrence and Wilson even. You gathered early that the other two would likely be taken 1, 2. You make your (very expensive) jump to 3, but you don't want to tip your hand on your immense man-crush on Fields, out of fear that maybe, just maybe the Jags/Jets start questioning their pick and looking hard again at Fields - after which, one of the two might just conclude the same thing you did months ago... That Justin Fields is the one true generational QB in this draft, lost in a cloud of QB hype for the rest of the group. So you make calculated leaks to convince the draftniks that you have a poster of Mac Jones on your ceiling.
Or maybe you are just LawFitz and you have a poster of Justin Fields on your ceiling.
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