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49ers jump up to #3 pick in draft


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As discussed and debated in multiple threads, I am leery of Wilson / Lance / Jones based on their limited time as starters and playing in a COVID season. IMO, that helped offenses more than defenses and led to some inflated numbers. I get a little frightened by guys with short track records in general, but this year even more so.

Jones played for a wrecking crew with a ton of future HOFers and had all day to throw. Wilson was looking like a Day 3 pick after his so so 2019 season. Lance pretty much took the season off and only had 319 career passing attempts in college against powder puff competition. IMO, in other drafts with fewer QB needy teams, I'm not sure any of these guys would be considered Top 5 picks . . . in fact, Jones and Lance probably wouldn't even be considered first round picks.

The one guy that I watched a lot and felt was the #2 QB in this class is Fields, but for some reason his stock seems to be falling. He made some pinpoint deep passes while staying in the pocket and getting walloped. All the things that have come out about him seem to just be noise (work ethic, not moving to other options for reads, his medical background, etc.).

If SF really is only considering Jones and Lance, I think they are looking at investing a ton with a decent chance of getting marginal ROI considering what it took to get up to Pick 3.

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13 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

The 49ers. At least according to Albert Breer, who said he was told it would take at least a first round pick to get SF to listen to a potential trade offer involving Garoppolo.

People say a lot of things close to the draft. 

That sounds like an opening salvo to me. If I were offering you JimmyG in a Superflex league I’d probably ask for a 1st as well. 

I choose to believe nothing when it comes to stuff like this. If someone offered an OL or DB & a 2nd, Jimmy ought to start packing his bags. Maybe even 2x 2nds or a future pair of 2nds. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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54 minutes ago, Faust said:

Head coach Kyle Shanahan, meanwhile, is reportedly dead set on using the third pick on Mac Jones, who NBC Sports' Peter King described as a "coach on the field" QB Shanahan wants.

All due respect to Peter King, but how TF does he know what Shanahan is “dead set on”? 

Hedging that with “reportedly” doesn’t make it any more true or safer to say.

The pick might be AJones, but King is talking out of his sphincter on this one. 

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50 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

As discussed and debated in multiple threads, I am leery of Wilson / Lance / Jones based on their limited time as starters and playing in a COVID season. IMO, that helped offenses more than defenses and led to some inflated numbers. I get a little frightened by guys with short track records in general, but this year even more so.

Jones played for a wrecking crew with a ton of future HOFers and had all day to throw. Wilson was looking like a Day 3 pick after his so so 2019 season. Lance pretty much took the season off and only had 319 career passing attempts in college against powder puff competition. IMO, in other drafts with fewer QB needy teams, I'm not sure any of these guys would be considered Top 5 picks . . . in fact, Jones and Lance probably wouldn't even be considered first round picks.

I’m still hoping they take Fields. 

 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

People say a lot of things close to the draft. 

That sounds like an opening salvo to me. If I were offering you JimmyG in a Superflex league I’d probably ask for a 1st as well. 

I choose to believe nothing when it comes to stuff like this. If someone offered an OL or DB & a 2nd, Jimmy ought to start packing his bags. 

Regardless of what SF would hope to get back in return, that doesn't change that they would likely want someone fully knowledge with their system for at least half the season to lead a playoff caliber team until QUARTERBACK X is ready . . . or that very few teams have the ability to trade for JG without making other roster moves or getting Garoppolo to rework his deal while still employed by the Niners . . . or that Jimmy G could veto any trade. If I am Garoppolo, I would rather I got released and pick my own team than take a big pay cut (likely without any bonus money) and agree to getting shipped to someplace I may have no interest in. As a street free agent, he could set up either a long-term deal with bonus money or a short-term incentive based deal to build back his value. Bottom line, trading Garoppolo will not be as easy as lots of people are making it out to be. Other teams won't want his contract for a first or second round pick . . . and the Niners would likely rather have him on their roster than take a later round pick for him.

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1 minute ago, chinawildman said:

"If you’re going to draw it up, you’re going to draw the biggest, fastest, strongest and best quarterback in the pocket..." - Kyle Shanahan 

 

That’s the quote I was referring to earlier. That doesn’t sound like Jones. 
 

other stuff that drives me nuts are quotes like this: 

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports the 49ers are "down to" Alabama QB Mac Jones and North Dakota State QB Trey Lance at No. 3 overall. 

We have an extremely difficult time believing the 49ers would trade up to No. 3 overall without knowing who the pick was, but we suppose stranger things have happened. Something else that keeps happening is names other than Jones getting leaked while Jones never really leaves the picture. It would seem the Niners have been locked in on Jones all along but are trying to create a narrative of uncertainty. They have no need to smokescreen since the first two picks are locked in and they cannot be be jumped, so that would admittedly be odd. Perhaps this is the rare time where a team in the Niners' situation really does not know what they will do four days from now. The preponderance of evidence says they will select Jones.”

Evidence? What evidence? Oh, you mean all the assumptions, presumptions & blathering by people like you for a month?  That ain’t evidence, Chief. It’s talking heads getting high on their own supply. 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Jones is the shortest & weights the least of the 3. lol

i wouldnt take him at 3.  and i like him

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4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That’s the quote I was referring to earlier. That doesn’t sound like Jones. 
 

other stuff that drives me nuts are quotes like this: 

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports the 49ers are "down to" Alabama QB Mac Jones and North Dakota State QB Trey Lance at No. 3 overall. 

We have an extremely difficult time believing the 49ers would trade up to No. 3 overall without knowing who the pick was, but we suppose stranger things have happened. Something else that keeps happening is names other than Jones getting leaked while Jones never really leaves the picture. It would seem the Niners have been locked in on Jones all along but are trying to create a narrative of uncertainty. They have no need to smokescreen since the first two picks are locked in and they cannot be be jumped, so that would admittedly be odd. Perhaps this is the rare time where a team in the Niners' situation really does not know what they will do four days from now. The preponderance of evidence says they will select Jones.”

Evidence? What evidence? Oh, you mean all the assumptions, presumptions & blathering by people like you for a month?  That ain’t evidence, Chief. It’s talking heads getting high on their own supply. 

Chris Biderman is saying someone leaked it from inside the building.

I really think Fields is out of the running at this point.

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8 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Evidence? What evidence? Oh, you mean all the assumptions, presumptions & blathering by people like you for a month?  That ain’t evidence, Chief. It’s talking heads getting high on their own supply. 

:confused:

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Just now, bouji said:

Chris Biderman is saying someone leaked it from inside the building.

I really think Fields is out of the running at this point.

I’m ok with Lance. Big kid, strong, fast and reportedly a good head on his shoulders. Can be molded by the Niners/Shanny & become a great fit. 

what I hate is the fart-sniffers sniffing their own farts and calling it evidence. 

Niners have addressed the leak rumor and called it preposterous. The “leaker” is Jones’s agent who’s brilliantly turned him into a top 10 pick. 

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5 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

:confused:

People like Rapoport, to whom the quote was attributed.

Peter King says some stuff.

5 analysts debate whether King is on point or not.

a month later 3 other NFL analysts point to the King quote as evidence of something.

lather, rinse, repeat. It’s a ratings bonanza for the NFL network & all the pilot fish swimming around it, but it’s also all completely meaningless until Goodell says a name. 

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Just now, thecatch said:

You'd think everyone would be on the same page before they made perhaps the biggest trade in franchise history.  

I suppose a case could be made that MIA was shopping their pick and SF was concerned another team would beat them to the punch. At least having the 3rd pick they could guarantee themselves their guy would be there (assuming they liked someone besides Wilson). So there is some logic to making the trade whether there was a consensus within the building or not.

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25 minutes ago, thecatch said:

You'd think everyone would be on the same page before they made perhaps the biggest trade in franchise history.  

It’s possible, and even very very likely that they are. 

just because an external gaggle of reporters thirsty for clicks and ratings say it’s a dilemma, and can’t figure out who the Niners are taking doesn’t mean there’s an internal crisis within the 49ers organization.

i’d be willing to bet that the Niners have known who they wanted from the instant they approached the Dolphins about the trade.

Don’t confuse media blathering for facts. 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

It’s possible, and even very very likely that they are. 

just because an external gaggle of reporters thirsty for clicks and ratings say it’s a dilemma, and can’t figure out who the Niners are taking doesn’t mean there’s an internal crisis within the 49ers organization.

i’d be willing to bet that the Niners have know who they wanted from the instant they approached the Dolphins about the trade.

Don’t confuse media blathering for facts. 

It's also possible that the reporting is accurate.  I have little doubt Shanahan has known who he wants from the beginning, and I guess that's the only opinion in the building that matters.

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9 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I suppose a case could be made that MIA was shopping their pick and SF was concerned another team would beat them to the punch. At least having the 3rd pick they could guarantee themselves their guy would be there (assuming they liked someone besides Wilson). So there is some logic to making the trade whether there was a consensus within the building or not.

Maybe, but it doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence if there's dispute in the building as to who their guy is.

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Just now, chinawildman said:

If the league truly believed the niners were taking Jones, Atlanta would've found a buyer for the 4th pick by now.

Who says they haven't? They may have multiple suitors and they will pick the one whose guy is still available on draft day after the SF pick is announced.

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4 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

If the league truly believed the niners were taking Jones, Atlanta would've found a buyer for the 4th pick by now.

A lot of people think they are taking Lance if the 49ers don't though. That may very well be the hold up.

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Just now, Anarchy99 said:

Who says they haven't? They may have multiple suitors and they will pick the one whose guy is still available on draft day after the SF pick is announced.

I'm not saying they don't have suitors, I'm saying they've yet to find a buyer. Big difference. 

The niners were guaranteed some certainty by moving to 3 early. The fact that no team has already jumped at 4 means there is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to what the niners (and possibly even the jets) will do. 

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14 minutes ago, thecatch said:

It's also possible that the reporting is accurate.  I have little doubt Shanahan has known who he wants from the beginning, and I guess that's the only opinion in the building that matters.

Sure. definitely possible. 

Which reporting though?  The seemingly unstoppable Jones rumor mill that sprung from thin air?

The “Lance has always been the pick” reporting from Eisen?

The “Fields is the perfect fit as the next-gen QB” reporting? 

one of em is right. :shrug: 

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7 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

The niners were guaranteed some certainty by moving to 3 early. The fact that no team has already jumped at 4 means there is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to what the niners (and possibly even the jets) will do. 

Agreed. And that’s external uncertainty - which means all this heated reporting about what the Niners are going to do, and whether their personnel dept wants Lance & is at odds with Shanahan/Lynch, and blah blah blah - it’s all just pixels on a screen written by people who get paid to speculate emphatically. 

They should make guys like Rapoport & King bet their next paycheck on the accuracy of each article they write. 

I guarantee they’d tone down their rhetoric significantly. 

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Just now, thecatch said:

Good thing it's not a criminal trial.

I’m just sayin - the speculation that there’s internal dissent or that the personnel dept is at odds with the front office or that the Niners don’t yet know who they’re taking is 100% media invented. 

One of the talking heads will crow about having been right all along. And they’ll be just as FOS as the rest of them. 

The only people who actually know are Shanny & Lynch, and they haven’t said Ish. 💡 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

They should make guys like Rapoport & King bet their next paycheck on the accuracy of each article they write. 

I guarantee they’d tone down their rhetoric significantly. 

I mean these guys get paid to speculate and create juicy gossip... take it for what it is. If every sports writer/analyst was just like 🤷‍♂️, we'd be pretty bored right now.

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12 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

I'm not saying they don't have suitors, I'm saying they've yet to find a buyer. Big difference. 

The niners were guaranteed some certainty by moving to 3 early. The fact that no team has already jumped at 4 means there is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to what the niners (and possibly even the jets) will do. 

I am suggesting that ATL has three trades lined up depending upon which QB the Niners take. But since we don’t know who they are taking, they can’t trade the pick unless a team unconditionally wants one of the leftovers no matter which two guys are left. 

So IMO they have found a buyer if they decide they don’t want to use the pick. And once SF picks, that will be either Team X, Y, or Z depending upon who is left. 

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7 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

I mean these guys get paid to speculate and create juicy gossip... take it for what it is. If every sports writer/analyst was just like 🤷‍♂️, we'd be pretty bored right now.

Exactly. And hey, who wouldn’t want to be Mel Kiper? Dude’s made an incredible career & millions of dollars off of what, a 35% accuracy rating? 30%? 

Only MLB hitters & Mel Kiper can last 20 years consistently failing 7/10 times. 

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5 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’m just sayin - the speculation that there’s internal dissent or that the personnel dept is at odds with the front office or that the Niners don’t yet know who they’re taking is 100% media invented. 

One of the talking heads will crow about having been right all along. And they’ll be just as FOS as the rest of them. 

The only people who actually know are Shanny & Lynch, and they haven’t said Ish. 💡 

All it takes for a talking head to be right is to hedge and say on air they are taking each guy at least once. Then they play that clip again and they look like a genius. 

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1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

I am suggesting that ATL has three trades lined up depending upon which QB the Niners take. But since we don’t know who they are taking, they can’t trade the pick unless a team unconditionally wants one of the leftovers no matter which two guys are left. 

So IMO they have found a buyer if they decide they don’t want to use the pick. And once SF picks, that will be either Team X, Y, or Z depending upon who is left. 

Definitely plausible. 

Lot of speculation that the Falcons will draft Ryan’s future replacement there. 

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2 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I am suggesting that ATL has three trades lined up depending upon which QB the Niners take. But since we don’t know who they are taking, they can’t trade the pick unless a team unconditionally wants one of the leftovers no matter which two guys are left

Which goes to my original point... nobody's willing to pull the trigger on paying for the 4th QB off the board in this draft because nobody is actually convinced the niners will take Jones.

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10 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

Which goes to my original point... nobody's willing to pull the trigger on paying for the 4th QB off the board in this draft because nobody is actually convinced the niners will take Jones.

To be faaaaaaaiiiir; it’s still possible the Jets take Fields, throwing all of this into chaos.

Also, remember when the Niners took Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers fell to 24th? 

No one thought Rodgers would slide that far. They kept going back to him sitting in that room, waiting to be picked. 

I remember. I also remember the resulting Alex Smith era in SF.:cry: 

I’m pretty sure every 49er fan is feeling trepidation right now over taking the wrong dude. 

And if they do take Jones & he’s the next Aaron Rodgers, none of this pre-draft stuff will matter. But if they take Jones & Lance/Fields end up being the next Murray/Mahomes while Jones is the next Alex Smith, then neither Shanny nor Lynch should ever have a front office job again.  

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1 hour ago, chinawildman said:

I'm not saying they don't have suitors, I'm saying they've yet to find a buyer. Big difference. 

The niners were guaranteed some certainty by moving to 3 early. The fact that no team has already jumped at 4 means there is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to what the niners (and possibly even the jets) will do. 

:goodposting:

And I agree but we know the Jets are going QB for sure. It would be something if San Fran moves up and then drafts a WR or TE. Atlanta will have the most leverage after San Fran makes their selection. 

Seems like the Bengals are going to take whoever they want at 5 and nobody is going to stop them. 

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2 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

:goodposting:

And I agree but we know the Jets are going QB for sure. It would be something if San Fran moves up and then drafts a WR or TE. Atlanta will have the most leverage after San Fran makes their selection. 

Seems like the Bengals are going to take whoever they want at 5 and nobody is going to stop them. 

The 49ers are 99.75% taking a QB - no one would pay what they did to move up to get a TE or WR - that just does not happen.

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The 49ers are 99.75% taking a QB - no one would pay what they did to move up to get a TE or WR - that just does not happen.

Except that nobody has taken the Falcons up on their offer to trade the #4 pick. I never said it was likely SF wouldn't draft a QB, just seems like teams wanting QB4 or QB5 off the board would secure their spot with Atlanta right now.  

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2 hours ago, chinawildman said:

I mean these guys get paid to speculate and create juicy gossip... take it for what it is. If every sports writer/analyst was just like 🤷‍♂️, we'd be pretty bored right now.

Right. Every draft has to have "the drama" leading up to the event. If San Francisco didn't trade up to 3 all of the talk would be around which QB will/should the Jets take at 2!??! 

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9 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Except that nobody has taken the Falcons up on their offer to trade the #4 pick. I never said it was likely SF wouldn't draft a QB, just seems like teams wanting QB4 or QB5 off the board would secure their spot with Atlanta right now.  

Or... wait to see which 3 QBs are taken?  Draft day trade offers will be flying in for Atlanta's pick - it is just going to come down to them wanting Pitts/Chase or draft capital.  

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18 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Except that nobody has taken the Falcons up on their offer to trade the #4 pick. I never said it was likely SF wouldn't draft a QB, just seems like teams wanting QB4 or QB5 off the board would secure their spot with Atlanta right now.  

I already outlined the most likely scenario . . . that multiple teams are interested in "their guy" at Pick 4. Just because that player would be the 4th QB selected DOES NOT mean that team views that player as the #4 QB . . . they could be getting their #2 guy after Lawrence on their draft board. But until we know who is available after the Niners pick, we won't know which team is the one that gets green lighted in a trade with ATL.

For example, I believe the Patriots could be big suitors for Fields, but not so much on Lance or Jones. So they wouldn't move heaven and earth if Fields is off the board. Maybe the Broncos are all in if Lance is there at 4 but not Jones or Fields. Say the Bears or Redskins really want Jones if he is there at #4. That's why we haven't seen a trade, as teams cannot be assured the player they want will still be available . . . making an in-draft trade the most likely outcome.

IMO, the Falcons have multiple teams in the queue depending upon what the 49ers do. As I outlined in many other threads, they are conjoined to Ryan and getting away from him would both be bad business and not helping the team by drafting a QB there. (They are on the hook for $65M and Ryan is still producing as a Top 10 QB. Their defense has been the thorn in their side, so potentially having two of their best players at the same position when only one of them can play at a time would be a waste of resources.)

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26 minutes ago, TVT 0 N S T A said:

Or... wait to see which 3 QBs are taken?  Draft day trade offers will be flying in for Atlanta's pick - it is just going to come down to them wanting Pitts/Chase or draft capital.  

Good points, i agree that after SF picks whoever it is, then the Falcons should already know who is likely to call them in advance. 

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10 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I already outlined the most likely scenario . . . that multiple teams are interested in "their guy" at Pick 4. Just because that player would be the 4th QB selected DOES NOT mean that team views that player as the #4 QB . . . they could be getting their #2 guy after Lawrence on their draft board. But until we know who is available after the Niners pick, we won't know which team is the one that gets green lighted in a trade with ATL.

For example, I believe the Patriots could be big suitors for Fields, but not so much on Lance or Jones. So they wouldn't move heaven and earth if Fields is off the board. Maybe the Broncos are all in if Lance is there at 4 but not Jones or Fields. Say the Bears or Redskins really want Jones if he is there at #4. That's why we haven't seen a trade, as teams cannot be assured the player they want will still be available . . . making an in-draft trade the most likely outcome.

IMO, the Falcons have multiple teams in the queue depending upon what the 49ers do. As I outlined in many other threads, they are conjoined to Ryan and getting away from him would both be bad business and not helping the team by drafting a QB there. (They are on the hook for $65M and Ryan is still producing as a Top 10 QB. Their defense has been the thorn in their side, so potentially having two of their best players at the same position when only one of them can play at a time would be a waste of resources.)

I definitely cannot see Atlanta taking a QB for the same reasons you outlined but I can see them also staying put and taking another weapon on offense to a loaded receiving corp. Maybe that is why the Julio news is leaking all over the place, maybe they are ready to move on, either at WR or QB or BOTH if they got the right offers even with all that money tied up. That is part of the problem for Atlanta and the new head coach. $50M ATC for Ryan and Julio Jones, that's 25% of the entire team salary cap. 

Grady Jarrett another $21M so like $70M+ on 3 dudes when you gotta pay about 50 and field a starting 22, that just is hard to overcome. 

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1 minute ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Good points, i agree that after SF picks whoever it is, then the Falcons should already know who is likely to call them in advance. 

Yes, this exactly. Again, using NE as an example, they were talking about this on the radio the other day. BB (or one of his minions) has already called every team in front of them at Pick 15 to ask what it would take to move up to that spot. They likely have the framework for a trade worked out for every pick from #4 to #14 (although maybe not for the Dolphins pick as I doubt MIA would make a trade with NE). There is no way that a team is going to jump into the fray and start negotiating a deal with 10 minutes on the clock, especially if there are multiple teams in the mix. I would expect that there might be some last second massaging . . . maybe another team upped their best offer, so that extra 4th round pick in 2022 has to now be a 3rd or an additional 5th.

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4 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Yes, this exactly. Again, using NE as an example, they were talking about this on the radio the other day. BB (or one of his minions) has already called every team in front of them at Pick 15 to ask what it would take to move up to that spot. They likely have the framework for a trade worked out for every pick from #4 to #14 (although maybe not for the Dolphins pick as I doubt MIA would make a trade with NE). There is no way that a team is going to jump into the fray and start negotiating a deal with 10 minutes on the clock, especially if there are multiple teams in the mix. I would expect that there might be some last second massaging . . . maybe another team upped their best offer, so that extra 4th round pick in 2022 has to now be a 3rd or an additional 5th.

I think New England gives up a second round pick for Garoppolo within minutes of the 49ers picking.

that aside, I agree with The general premise of of your post. ;) 

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50 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Except that nobody has taken the Falcons up on their offer to trade the #4 pick. I never said it was likely SF wouldn't draft a QB, just seems like teams wanting QB4 or QB5 off the board would secure their spot with Atlanta right now.  

But they wouldn't do it for QB3? I don't get what you're trying to say here.

I think most NFL GMs right now feel pretty safe in saying picks 1-3 are QBs at this point.

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