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49ers jump up to #3 pick in draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Anarchy99
- Start date
chinawildman
Footballguy
Not saying I don't like Wilson or he shouldn't go that high. This line of reasoning began by wondering what's to stop Trey Lance from being vaulted into the the #2 convo in the coming month.
massraider
Footballguy
Oh. Sorry.
Answer: Not a darn thing.
We all know that Wilson is going #2, until Schefter says the Jets have been in talks with Lance, then we'll all know for sure that Lance is, OBVIOUSLY, going 2nd.
Foosball God
Foos
NE definitely has not utilized their cap to allow for a high priced QB to be added. If they had gone in with that approach they wouldn't have signed as many players as they did. I agree they are either going to bargain shop, roll with Cam, or draft a QB either by trading up and taking the 4th or 5th QB, or seeing what's there in Rd. 2 out of guys like Trask.
I don’t understand all the Falcons have to take a qb at 4 also talk. I mean they might but it seems unlikely to me. Matt Ryan will be 36 but he’s still playing well. They need offensive line help if anything on the offense. Plus their defense needs help as usual. Sewell or trade down is what they should be doing.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
IMO, ATL will get a flood of calls / offers from teams looking to move up for the 4th QB. It wouldn’t shock me if they got offered more of a haul than MIA did. So I see them trading out of their pick.
massraider
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I have enjoyed the banter with Eagles fans the last couple seasons but I understand they want Miami to take a HUGE step back in '22 so they can net a Top5-10 pick, you all won't hurt my feelings when we drop games on Sundays, you all have been great. I was a little disappointed they didn't trade one of the SF 1st Rd picks vs their own.
Quite honestly I hated the Niners in the 80s and the butt whooping Montana and Craig administered in '84 but then in more recent years I was more interested in the team. I respect Johnny Lynch and have always been a fan of his but these next couple seasons I am going to be rooting hard for the Rams and Seahawks.
1.06-Kyle Pitts TE and Miami will have the best young tandem at TE in the NFL. They can also use 2 TEs to cover up a suspect OL. Miami can get a WR at 36, easily. Only problem in this scenario is Miami has several TEs on the roster, 2 besides Gesicki that were extended last Fall and then in the off season they signed some guy from Cinci who wasn't a starter there.
Quite honestly I hated the Niners in the 80s and the butt whooping Montana and Craig administered in '84 but then in more recent years I was more interested in the team. I respect Johnny Lynch and have always been a fan of his but these next couple seasons I am going to be rooting hard for the Rams and Seahawks.
1.06-Kyle Pitts TE and Miami will have the best young tandem at TE in the NFL. They can also use 2 TEs to cover up a suspect OL. Miami can get a WR at 36, easily. Only problem in this scenario is Miami has several TEs on the roster, 2 besides Gesicki that were extended last Fall and then in the off season they signed some guy from Cinci who wasn't a starter there.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Peter Windbag King was saying it will be the talk of the Draft if they go mac Jones but I don't understand that logic, why trade up when they likely could have gotten him at 12?
I didn't know there was a Mac Jones feeding frenzy going on in the NFL.
-OZ-
Footballguy
They don't need a QB, totally agree that sewell should be their pick.
Maybe pitts or trade down for parsons, horn or paye.
massraider
Footballguy
That trade on Friday made it clear that this original like of thinking needed to be re-examined.
There is a little perfect storm that is bunching up these QBs, and part of it is that the other blue chip players are a TE, and a WR. That's just different than a DE, DT, or even CB. So it's easy to talk yourself into a QB when you aren't worried about passing on Myles Garrett or Aaron Donald.
I have not heard his podcast yet and maybe it will change my mindset but I've heard about every podcast he's put out previously this year and have read most of his tweets and DJ is exactly why something stinks on this Mac Jones to SF at 3 news. I'll explain.
I've heard DJ, and for that matter his sidekick-Bucky, pretty much be a little down on Mac Jones for months. Both have argued against people who try and comp him to Burrow. Bucky put Mac at 32 to Tampa in his last mock. DJ has been putting Mac to the Saints in his last one I believe and has said a few times that Mac would be ideal for the Saints. DJ likes to also say his mocks are based on what he hears, but he's never discussed any scenario were SF was looking at Mac Jones at 12.
So Friday DJ literally finds out the SF trade to 3 while on-air and immediately throws him out as consideration for 3? So a guy he never put them as being interested in with pick 12 he's suddenly thinking makes sense for them at 3?
Just does not add up and combined with the absolute precision that almost every major media member launched into the Mac Jones could be the guy at 3, like zero to 100 rumors in a matter of minutes after the trade, sure makes me think this is some seriously agent driven BS.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
As you'll see a few pages back, that was my gut reaction too. "Man, Mac Jones agent is good!" because this is for sure going to drive Jones' value way way higher than it was prior to the Niners moving up, and everyone I've heard, both call-in draft experts & on-air personalities on 95.7 the game has said it's Fairbanks or Lance.
Even Peter King said as much when he called in, and he was the only one who mentioned Jones as a dark horse, but thought it was unlikely they'd pay that much to move that high to take him.
massraider
Footballguy
I would say that Jeremiah's attitude on the podcast was more inline with his thinking.
You should hear it, him throwing the name out there, he had a, 'You won't believe this but I hear Jones is the guy, from several teams' attitude. He sure didn't make it sound like a great idea, and when Jeremiah says people from teams tell him, I believe him. If a Schefter or Florio says it, maybe I don't.
I'll listen to it for sure later but you mentioned Shefter and oddly enough it was a tweet he sent out after the trade that started getting me to second guess this Mac Jones at 3 talk not being legit.
What he tweeted was that SF never tried to get pick 2, but they did try and get picks 5 or 4 before obtaining the 3. I started thinking about that tweet and if Mac Jones was the target I can see why they'd have concluded 5 would get the job done. Maybe, or just means they've not made up their mind.
I'm starting to get confused but one thing I'll say for sure. They won't both draft Mac Jones and retain Garopollo. So if I'm a 49'er fan and see Jimmy G traded I'd start puckering up a bit.
And I'd still put my money on Trey Lance being teh pick.
chinawildman
Footballguy
All this "I hear this, I hear that"... is any of it from people within any organization? Reason I ask is because I'm trying to find the source of all this "Wilson locked in to the Jets" stuff and I can't seem to find anything that references sources (even if unnamed) from within the organization.
Almost 100% of this is from scouts, ex-scouts of other teams, ex-GMs, etc... in other words the analyst twitterverse echochamber. Zach Wilson seemed to be their darling, and now it's Jones.
My guess is they will say whatever generates the most clicks/exposure. Speculation ceases to be interesting when it's the consensus.
Almost 100% of this is from scouts, ex-scouts of other teams, ex-GMs, etc... in other words the analyst twitterverse echochamber. Zach Wilson seemed to be their darling, and now it's Jones.
My guess is they will say whatever generates the most clicks/exposure. Speculation ceases to be interesting when it's the consensus.
LongDuckDong
Footballguy
I just continue to be amazed that the cost to go from 6 to 3 (a third this year and a 2023 #1) was LESS than to go from 12 to 6 (2022 #1) in a 5 QB draft. Miami nailed the first trade and screwed up the second.
Wingnut
Footballguy
I'm starting to think the 49ers were gonna make a huge offer for Deshawn Watson, but with all the crap surrounding him, and the Texans not budging on their stance, they decided to go this route instead.
If they were willing to send two firsts for the chance to draft a rookie who isn't a sure thing, they surely would've sent those picks (and more) for a can't miss, established, elite QB.
If they were willing to send two firsts for the chance to draft a rookie who isn't a sure thing, they surely would've sent those picks (and more) for a can't miss, established, elite QB.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Shanahan at his presser today commented about the visits. Said they’ll all be visiting more with all 4 of Wilson, Fields, Lance & Jones.
I never got the impression that they were any higher on Jones than they are on the other 3.
The guys on 95.7 (including Lo Neil) believes the Mac Jones visit is “posturing”.
They’re saying it’s gonna be Fields to the Niners. I am inclined to agree.
I never got the impression that they were any higher on Jones than they are on the other 3.
The guys on 95.7 (including Lo Neil) believes the Mac Jones visit is “posturing”.
They’re saying it’s gonna be Fields to the Niners. I am inclined to agree.
With the top two picks seemingly set, I’m not sure what the value would be in posturing. I think it’s more likely Lynch/Shanahan know this pick is going to make or break the remainder of their tenure with the team and want to do extra due diligence on everyone, even if they already have a good sense of who they want to grab.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That's also a factor - they want to give Mac a good hard look, because if they're already sold on Fields but don't evaluate Jones enough & they end up taking a L on Fields, it's gonna look bad. But if that happens and Jones comes into the league gangbusters, woof.
It also might be as simple as Alex Smith/Aaron Rogers flashbacks with the Yorks. If only back then someone was like "hey we should really go take a hard look at this Aaron Rogers kid, just in case..." the 49ers would have had a substantially different decade.
The "posturing" comment was more about throwing other teams off the scent, as an off-handed "just something every team does when acting cagey about their pick" but I agree from the 3 spot it doesn't matter if they posture or not. At 12 it made a lot more sense.
ETA: it also makes the trip by Shanny to see Jones a lot less significant in the context of the above, in that if they KNOW they want Fields at 3, might as well send the assistant GM to see the known quantity while sending the top guys to see the "just in case" guy. I feel somewhat better about that.
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I for sure would not put anything into him going to the Bama pro day and not Ohio State's.
Could be related to so many things we don't know, such as other key prospects they wanted to see in person.
Also, and this may factor zero in their pro day decision, I'm not sure if Kyle has ever met Mac Jones in person. No idea. They do get to fly in prospects to meet this year, right? But while it's been a few years since this time Kyle has at least got to spend some time with Fields as QB Collective: https://qbcollective.com/
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I wish, but I find that very unlikely. And for whatever it's worth, Lorenzo Neal was 100% positive that the Jets are taking Wilson.Or Fields is who they think the Jets want so they are ignoring his pro day and drilling in on the other 3.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
That's incorrect because Miami will get more value when they trade down from 6, much more than Philly got going from 6 to 12 but I'm betting you won't run in here and correct yourself.
Let me break this down for you because you're just looking at it in a vacuum...
-First, Miami assures that a QB now will go 1-2-3 in all likelihood and since they don't need a QB(If you ask Grier) that means they push a non QB down the boards further. Whoever they thought they wanted at 3, likely they think they can get them at 6. (Read that a couple times if needed)
-Second, take a breath but what if a QB falls down the board since we might have 5 in play now and Miami is sitting at the 6 spot when suddenly they start getting phone calls from teams like Carolina, Denver, or heaven forbid the Bears want to get in on the action and start shipping 1st rounders and that 20-52 Combo this year which I would love for Miami to trade down and break away from this insane overpriced Offense BS, they have 2nd Round picks to get a WR and if they pass on Pitts, I like Brevin Jordan from a Univ that has spit out a lot of great TEs.
The Miami Dolphins could potentially walk away on Draft Day with a huge haul, a lot more than what they sent to Philly. It's not over and I wouldn't be so quick with your hot takes that they blew it, you need to look at the bigger picture.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
They just went to a Super Bowl and were in position to beat Mahomes even with lousy QB play. Are their jobs really on the line?
Sure. If the QB busts, there’s a good chance they end up winning 4-6 games the next 2 years (without a couple high first round picks to replenish the roster). And if if that happens, Shanahan will have won 6 or fewer games for 5 of the 6 years he’s been the head coach. Their jobs won’t be safe.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
socrates
Footballguy
At the very least, they could have moved up to pick #6, to ensure they got Mac Jones, and it would have cost the Niners considerably less. When I initially saw the report, I thought they must have some information that Zach Wilson was not going to the Jets at #2, or they really like either Justin Fields or Trey Lance, because you don't move that aggressively for Mac Jones or any non-QB. It might make some sense to draft Trey Lance, and let him redshirt a season behind Jimmy G, like the Chiefs did with Mahomes behind Alex Smith, but if they are seeking early returns, it almost certainly has to be Fields. Again, I question the wisdom of the timing, however. Fields has seemingly dropped down many projections, so why aggressively move up to #3 this early in the process?Ministry of Pain said:
My suspicion is the Niners were moving up with their eyes on Zach Wilson, and now they are in scramble mode. There is still a month to go, and San Francisco may still get their guy, but this does not seem like a very well-thought out move, at this point.
Wingnut
Footballguy
Year one shouldn't count against them, they werent expected to win that year. They got their QB and were set to compete...
Year 2 Jet gets hurt right before the season and Jimmy goes down week 3. Not much they could have done.
Year 3 Super Bowl appearance.
Year 4 the most injuries any team has ever seen in the history of everything.
Plus, they've drafted the likes of Kittle, Warner, Bosa, and Aiyuk (who will be a stud IMO). Sure they've had plenty of duds too, but those guys are quite a core of top notch players.
I don't think they'll be on the hot seat unless they somehow miss the playoffs the next 2 seasons.
Just my$.02
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
oh I’m well aware of the things that were out of their control. Ive made these arguments often when defending the team.
But the NFL is a bottom line business.
Clearly lynch & shanahan haven't soured in the York’s eyes or they wouldn’t have given them leeway to make this deal.
But if this deal goes sideways, the pass they have now evaporates, and being terrible 3/4 years will become more relevant.
And for all the excuses, they did go out and get Garapolo. They did evaluate Beathard & Mullins and make them the backup QBs. Bad luck didn't give the Niners zero depth at arguably the most important position.
Now they’ve broken the bank on a left tackle & traded their next 2 #1s for a QB. If the latter is a bust, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the end of the Lynch/Shanny regime.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Given the relationship to Saleh I find that speculation utterly preposterous.
In fact I’d say it’s highly likely they initially offered the Jets that package to move to 2, but Saleh told them no as he’s taking Wilson.
There’s a 0.00% chance Saleh didn’t fall Shanny he’s talking Wilson at 2 before Shanahan moved to 3
and if you heard the pressed today, you’d hear a very confident coach. He knows who he’s taking. There’s No scramble here. It’s been pretty clear the Jets are talking Wilson for some time now, and it’s not been a secret. And that’s just to the public.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
They obviously have three QBs they were willing to trade up to #3 to get
Exactly what wasnt well thought out?
Tanner9919
Footballguy
any chance they traded up to draft Sewell and have a beast of an O-line to flatten opposing defenses. Shanny LOVES to run the ball. Trent Williams and Sewell and Mack that would be the meanest Oline in the NFL. I know it's not likely but it wouldn't surprise me to see SF go in a direction no one thinks they'll go in.
Or they get D. Watson.
They do need a RB .too early to take one here, but..
Or they get D. Watson.
They do need a RB .too early to take one here, but..
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
There is ZERO chance the Jets told anyone who they are taking. Why would any team ruin their leverage - because he used to work there?
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I agree with you overall, but if you would have told me back in 2014 that Harbaugh was one season from moving on I would have said that you were absolutely crazy.
He had just gone 36-11-1 (actually 41-14-1 if you count the playoffs) and played in a SuperBowl and TWO Conference championships in the past three years going into that season. All three years they got knocked out of the playoffs by the SB champion. They lost those three games by a combined 11 points.
LongDuckDong
Footballguy
Really just responding since you felt so strongly I wouldn't. I appreciate your response - which I think is that Miami got everything from SF that they would have gotten draft day but Philly didn't get everything from Miami that they would have gotten had they waited. You are correct that only time will tell on that, and I certainly understand that they will get the same guy at 6 than they would at 3, but I'm not sure how they simultaneously get the same guy at 6 that they would have at 3 AND get way more value when they trade the 6th pick down.
That said, if the point here is that Miami saw a chance to get value out of staying in the top 6, you are completely correct that PHI was the best spot to do so, and that SF was the best hinge to make it happen. I just think they would have gotten more waiting another month at 3 than a #1 two years later.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Here's my main issue w/ the niners taking Jones at 3... it will across the board be seen as a reach and overpay until proven otherwise. The only scenario where it won't is if they win a SB with him and/or Lance and Fields are both mediocre to bust QBs. If Jones turns out to be Matt Ryan 2.0, but Lance turns out to be Steve McNair (RIP) 2.0 that pick will still feel like a miss because the "what if" will always exist. Like Deebo Samuel is a great player and all, but he gets hurt a lot and they still passed on DK Metcalf to get him.
That's a lot of stuff that has to work out for this kind of reach to be justified. And frankly speaking, while Shanny's a good schemer and coach, a lot of "his guys" in the draft have not turned out well.
That's a lot of stuff that has to work out for this kind of reach to be justified. And frankly speaking, while Shanny's a good schemer and coach, a lot of "his guys" in the draft have not turned out well.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Good post back, As a Phinsfan I was scratching my head until I figured out they likely are not done dealing and that you gotta look at the 2 moves as going from 3 Down to 6 instead of 3 Down to 12 back to 6...Miami was never going to sit at 12, they milked the most they could squeeze from No 3 and didn't wait until the week before the Draft. It reset the table just a bit and now teams are scrambling trying to figure out their next moves.
If you look at what the Phins did as a total move of 3 to 6, they did really well. I'm sure they asked Philly if they wanted to move up and the Eagles declined because they wanted to move back so probably knowing that if you're Grier, you ask Philly what they wanted to slide back to 12...I bet Grier had both trades working same time knowing he could slide all the way back and then come up again.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah - definitely not zero. and yeah, for that exact reason. Saleh & Shanny are good friends.
Regardless, there is also zero chance Shanny made this deal unless he was comfortable with the options that would fall to 3.
the narrative I was responding to that they made the deal to get Wilson & are now “scrambling” or panicking or somehow in disarray is absolute horse**** nonsense.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
Could be as simple as the 49ers looking hard at Jones at 12, and everyone knows they like him. Meanwhile, the 49ers are thinking Jones because they think they don't have a shot at the top guys.
Then, it becomes clear that these QBs are gonna go fast, and they may have to move up to get a QB.
So, if it's gonna cost you a bundle to move up and get Jones, maybe the 49ers are like, screw it, let's go get Fields/Lance.
They make the move, everyone knows/thinks they like Jones, and people misinterpret their reason for the move.
Seems like a pretty reasonable way for the rumor to get out there. "Yeah, we were hot for Jones--at 12. Now....we're at 3"
Then, it becomes clear that these QBs are gonna go fast, and they may have to move up to get a QB.
So, if it's gonna cost you a bundle to move up and get Jones, maybe the 49ers are like, screw it, let's go get Fields/Lance.
They make the move, everyone knows/thinks they like Jones, and people misinterpret their reason for the move.
Seems like a pretty reasonable way for the rumor to get out there. "Yeah, we were hot for Jones--at 12. Now....we're at 3"
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Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
chinawildman
Footballguy
Huh? Wilson's been linked to the Jets for awhile now. The entire niners organization would have to be living in a cave for the past month for this statement to be true.
LongDuckDong
Footballguy
To drop from 3 to 6, Miami got a #3 this year and a 2023 #1. While no individual team on the other end paid that, that was the cost of 6 to 3.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It's absolutely ZERO.
So Saleh (who is not even the GM) is going to jeopardize his new job and his new employer's competitive advantage because he's "friends" with Shanny - let's get real.
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And this is why I'm going to hold off on judging their second trade for now because unless Bengals comes to their senses and moves back, which per Shefter they said no to SF earlier,there is going to be a 5th QB on the board when MIA is up and if SF actually takes Mac Jones that QB will likely be Lance or Fields.
I'm not sure if Dolphins moved up to put themselves in that spot in case a 5th QB fell, especially if that 5th QB is not Mac Jones, or just wanted to secure what is likely no worse then second non-QB off the board but for me it's to early to judge.
massraider
Footballguy
Yeah.
If the rumors are true, and everyone knows the Jets intentions, Saleh probably the last guy to leak it. But there is loads of ways for info to get out:
- every single scout at the pro days. They all talk, everyone admits it.
- The agent.
- The owner.
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