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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Nico Collins, Texans


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Michigan WR Nico Collins ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at his pro day workout this Friday.

Collins (6'4/215) posted some impressive testing scores, as his 4.43 40-yard dash matches Justin Jefferson's time from the 2020 combine and is a rock solid mark for his size. also particularly of note is the lightning fast 6.71 second 3-cone drill which would have ranked among the very top of all 2020 NFL Scouting Combine wideouts and just behind Denzel Mims' group leading 6.66 time. Collins capped off his workout with a strong 37.5 vertical jump. This show of athleticism should calcify Collins' status as a Day-2 caliber prospect.

SOURCE: Michigan Football on Twitter

Mar 26, 2021, 3:48 PM ET

 

Edited by Faust
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The forgotten man. He's a tough player with good strength and size, but not a lot of speed (4.55, don't trust the 4.43 at pro-day) and lacks route running chops.  He's probably an OK dart throw in the 4th round of dynasty  rookie drafts in start 1qb leagues.  Probably won't be drafted in SF leagues.

Edited by JohnnyU
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2 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

The forgotten man. He's a tough player with good strength and size, but not a lot of speed (4.55) and lacks route running chops.  He's probably an OK dart throw in the 4th round of dynasty  rookie drafts in start 1qb leagues.  Probably won't be drafted in SF leagues.

He ran a 4.43 at his Pro Day. Maybe you're automatically adding .1 second because it wasn't at the Combine but that seems made up.

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5 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

He ran a 4.43 at his Pro Day. Maybe you're automatically adding .1 second because it wasn't at the Combine but that seems made up.

I wouldn't put much stock into that time.  More like a 4.5+  Either way, no way you take him before the 4th round of rookie drafts.

Edited by JohnnyU
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Just now, JohnnyU said:

What round in rookie drafts are you comfortable taking Collins?

Depends on where he's drafted. I like to have the NFL tell me what they think of a guy. But at present, I'd say you're about right with the 4th round, maybe 3rd. But that's not necessarily because he's a bad player. Just that there are a lot of good ones this year. 

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His three cone drill is impressive for a 6’4” wr. A 4.43 or even 4.53 is good for a 6’4” wr. https://twitter.com/umichfootball/status/1375522486838697988?s=21
 

He isn’t as polished as a route runner as a guy like Bateman. But he’s got the frame, speed, and agility to build upon to become great. I’m thinking he is a mid second round pick for me ahead of a lot of the small wrs that others will be taking. Just my humble opinion. 

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I feel like the 3 cone times are especially generous with prospects this year. Everyone is under 7 seconds!

I watch a fair amount of big ten football, and to me Collins consistently looked like a more skilled WR than Tarik Black or DPJ at Michigan. Maybe his speed is embellished, but even rounding up his 40 and 3c, he's got good speed, quickness, and explosiveness for his size. If he's a 3rd round NFL pick, I think late 2nd in dynasty is a good range. 

Edited by jtd13
Speed, not sprocket
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6 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

I feel like the 3 cone times are especially generous with prospects this year. Everyone is under 7 seconds!

I watch a fair amount of big ten football, and to me Collins consistently looked like a more skilled WR than Tarik Black or DPJ at Michigan. Maybe his sprocket is embellished, but even rounding up his 40 and 3c, he's got good speed, quickness, and explosiveness for his size. If he's a 3rd round NFL pick, I think late 2nd in dynasty is a good range. 

Agreed - and in general, be open minded with any Michigan prospect. I think we have enough data points by now to suggest development is a problem under this group. If their metrics are good enough then they are likely worthwhile buys at their respective price points. 

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On 3/31/2021 at 7:39 AM, jtd13 said:

I feel like the 3 cone times are especially generous with prospects this year. Everyone is under 7 seconds!

3 cone times are running about .06 faster than usual this year (although "than usual" is trickier with 3 cone than with most drills, since there's a surprisingly large amount of year-to-year variation in 3 cone times).

Draftscout has Collins's 40 at 4.45 and their 40 times seem to be basically right on (just .01 faster than last year's combine average) so I'm calling it 4.46.

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The 3 Cone is like the 40, who knows or should care exactly what it is or there is some bias with it this year. His time was good enough to know he is agile for a man his size. He's not just a vertical athlete, he has good foot work. Being 90th percentile 3 cone vs 80th percentile vs 70th percentile doesnt really matter. Just showing athleticism in that area for his size is all that mattered. 

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NFL Draft 2021: ESPN’s Todd McShay intrigued by Michigan WR Nico Collins’ size, speed
 

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ESPN NFL draft analyst Todd McShay has been high on former Michigan receiver Nico Collins for years.

Even though Collins sat out the 2020 season, McShay is still intrigued by the 6-foot-4 wideout ahead of the 2021 NFL Draft, which takes place April 29-May 1.

“I’ve always liked this guy,” McShay said on a conference call with reporters Monday. “I did a couple Michigan games, I think two years ago, as the sideline analyst. He didn’t have great quarterback play and he wasn’t always utilized properly, but he can get down the field and accelerate so quickly for a receiver with his size. He’s big; he’s fast. He’s not a great route runner in terms of like getting in and out of breaks, but as a vertical route runner, he’s a guy who can stretch the field and put a lot of pressure on defenses.”

As a junior in 2019, Collins totaled 37 receptions for 729 yards, with his 19.7 yards per catch ranking among the top 20 nationally. The former four-star prospect from Alabama also proved to be a weapon in the red zone his last two seasons, combining for 13 touchdowns.

While Collins wasn’t able to add any game tape in 2020, he did participate in the Senior Bowl in January. He also tested well at Michigan’s pro day March 26. According to Michigan, he ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash and had a vertical jump of 37 ½ inches.

McShay did not include Collins in his two-round mock draft released Thursday but said his size and speed could make him a wildcard.

“I’ve talked to some teams that have him as a day three pick,” McShay said. “I think he belongs somewhere in that probably third-round range but maybe even second, because we just don’t get as many guys that are -- What is he? Six-4, over 200 pounds and can run in the lower 4.4s and accelerate quickly. That’s the difference between him and some of the other bigger receivers in this class. He gets to top speed in a hurry and he tracks the ball vertically very well. He sees it, he knows when to turn his head and he can adjust to it because he has really good body control.”

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
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Texans selected Michigan WR Nico Collins with the No. 89 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Texans traded pick Nos. 109, 158 and a 2022 fourth-rounder to Carolina to leap up to No. 89. Collins (6'4/215) turned down offers to Alabama, Georgia, and LSU in order to follow Jim Harbaugh to Michigan, recording only one career 100-yard receiving game due to the Wolverines' abominable play under center. He still averaged 17.8 YPC through his collegiate career, opting out in 2020 because he "just didn’t want to get injured or something bad happen." Coaches took notice of his 34 1/8" arms and high-pointed contested catches as a plus-athlete with balance at Senior Bowl practices. Collins isn't expected to consistently separate at the next level but has shades of alpha traits and lands with negligent competition to push for a starting role in two-wide sets with Brandin Cooks from Week 1.

Apr 30, 2021, 10:54 PM ET

 

 

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  • Faust changed the title to Dynasty & Redraft: WR Nico Collins, Texans

This year's Chase Claypool. I know everyone wants to poop on the Texans but this is a great spot for him. And they need players. To say the least. He will probably be the X on day 1 and get fed. I can't even tell you who else is there. Brandin Cooks. Probably a perfect compliment. Obviously they have problems in Houston but I like this for FF.

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Lance Zierlein @LanceZierlein

I'm a fan of Nico Collins selection by the #Texans with this pick. He's a downfield threat with impressive build-up speed & good size. He wins contested catches with toughness & strength. Won't wiggle away from coverage underneath. 2nd round grame for me

https://twitter.com/lancezierlein/status/1388326873248280576?s=21

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On 5/1/2021 at 1:29 AM, barackdhouse said:

This year's Chase Claypool. I know everyone wants to poop on the Texans but this is a great spot for him. And they need players. To say the least. He will probably be the X on day 1 and get fed. I can't even tell you who else is there. Brandin Cooks. Probably a perfect compliment. Obviously they have problems in Houston but I like this for FF.

And if Watson gets cleared, his value is going to rocket up. 

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Posted (edited)

As a Michigan fan, I really thought DPJ, Nico and Tarik Black were super impressive size speed specimens but Harbaugh had no clue what to do with them and they never had a QB with the arm to take advantage of them. Nico was really dangerous downfield. Not many DBs could man up on him in a vertical route. I never saw Nico get to do much more than that though. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

As a Michigan fan, I really thought DPJ, Nico and Tarik Black were super impressive size speed specimens but Harbaugh had no clue what to do with them and they never had a QB with the arm to take advantage of them. Nico was really dangerous downfield. Not many DBs could man up on him in a vertical route. I never saw Nico get to do much more than that though. 

I always though Collins was the best of the bunch by far.  A UX buddy of mine that was a coach saw it the same way.

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13 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

I always though Collins was the best of the bunch by far.  A UX buddy of mine that was a coach saw it the same way.

I think so as well. Though he didn't have the open field ability of DPJ. DPJ was pretty exciting with the ball in his hands. Nico was pretty a trick guy. Can he do more? Maybe but Harbaugh never seemed to try it. I hated how he used those players. I can remember so many 3rd and longs where only 1 would be on the field with 2 RBs in the backfield or 3rd and long with 3 TEs lined in the 3 WR spots. Just clueless stuff. 

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46 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

He just went #26 in a rookie draft, gonna have to bump him up my list.

Houston won’t be very good anytime soon.

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5 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

And if Watson gets cleared, his value is going to rocket up. 

I think it's unlikely Watson is his QB. As long as Nico is a Texan anyway.

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14 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

It does if they don’t have a qb

You have no idea who their QB will be.  

We can expect it to be a mess in 2020.  But unless they are Jets level of long term incompetence, bad teams support fantasy players, especially WRs, all the time.  

His ADP is surrounded by Kenny Gainwell, Pat Freirmuth, Amari Rodgers, Josh Palmer, Chuba Hubbard.  I can make a great argument for Amari Rodgers over him, but I can make a beter argument for Collins over the rest of those names.  I will take the shot on WR1 potential in the late 2nd/early 3rd.

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1 hour ago, massraider said:

You have no idea who their QB will be.  

We can expect it to be a mess in 2020.  But unless they are Jets level of long term incompetence, bad teams support fantasy players, especially WRs, all the time.  

His ADP is surrounded by Kenny Gainwell, Pat Freirmuth, Amari Rodgers, Josh Palmer, Chuba Hubbard.  I can make a great argument for Amari Rodgers over him, but I can make a beter argument for Collins over the rest of those names.  I will take the shot on WR1 potential in the late 2nd/early 3rd.

Didn't he underperform in college?  A lot of that is probably bad qb play.  Won't be much for 2021, but yes, beyond that is unknown.

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Texans signed third-round WR Nico Collins to a four-year contract.

Already short on picks and talent, Houston inexplicably traded pick Nos. 109, 158 and a 2022 fourth-rounder to Carolina to leap up to No. 89 for Collins. Collins (6'4/215) turned down offers to Alabama, Georgia, and LSU in order to follow Jim Harbaugh to Michigan, recording only one career 100-yard receiving game due to the Wolverines' abominable play under center. He still averaged 17.8 YPR through his collegiate career, opting out in 2020 because he "just didn’t want to get injured or something bad happen." Coaches took notice of his 34 1/8" arms and high-pointed contested catches as a plus-athlete with balance at Senior Bowl practices. Collins isn't expected to consistently separate at the next level but has shades of alpha traits and lands with negligent competition to push for a starting role in two-wide sets with Brandin Cooks from Week 1.

May 12, 2021, 6:48 PM ET

 

 

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On 5/8/2021 at 8:07 AM, Denver724 said:

He's been creeping up in many of my early drafts. Seems to now be going at the 2.09 or earlier. 

I took him at 2.09 and was very happy to do so.

He has a chance to be a starter right away.

Yes, Houston is a mess but sometimes that can mean lots of late game points for receivers as bad teams pass a lot.

He has really good hands and uses his hands to snag ball out of the air.

His size and speed is elite.

Route running can be taught; size/speed cannot.  And in my experience, a guy who can't catch usually doesn't get better at that either and it can really hurt a player's chances to become or stay a starter.

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On 5/8/2021 at 8:15 AM, JohnnyU said:

Didn't he underperform in college?  A lot of that is probably bad qb play.  Won't be much for 2021, but yes, beyond that is unknown.

He didn't have a huge 1200 yard type season. But he did break out as a Sophomore (early breakout is always a good sign) with 632 yards and six TDs.  His Junior year he had 729 yards and seven TDs. His QBs were not good and the coaching did not emphasize the pass so I don't think you can look at production and be certain he can't produce at an elite level. He sat out this past year due to Covid so we lost that data point.  If he were on a high octane offense and/or played with an NFL caliber QB and had numbers like this I would agree. But you need to watch his tape as to me the talent jumps off the screen when you watch him.

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On 5/7/2021 at 5:18 PM, JohnnyU said:

It does if they don’t have a qb

Being terrible is great for QB and WR stats.

You get behind by 36 points and then just chuck it up against soft defenses.

The Blake Bortles theorem. 

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9 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

Being terrible is great for QB and WR stats.

You get behind by 36 points and then just chuck it up against soft defenses.

The Blake Bortles theorem. 

I think it depends. You still need a somewhat competent QB. Larry Fitzgerald lost years of his career to terrible QB play for example. 

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13 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

Being terrible is great for QB and WR stats.

You get behind by 36 points and then just chuck it up against soft defenses.

The Blake Bortles theorem. 

Not so much if you don’t have a qb

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

Not so much if you don’t have a qb

Yes it doesn't matter.  Volume is volume. 

Obviously having a QB makes it a whole lot better when you're efficient too. 

Edited by kittenmittens
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For a mid 3rd round rookie pick you could do a lot worse than a prototype WR that has athleticism to spare and probably suffered from poor QB play in college, who is *likely* going to be the Texans starting X on day 1. I picked him up almost everywhere.

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On 5/8/2021 at 10:15 AM, JohnnyU said:

Didn't he underperform in college? 

If you are asking that to imply he was a disappointment in college or did not live up to his abilities I would point out the Texans QB coach and passing game coordinator and assistant receivers coach/asst OC both coached him at Michigan. So obviously they would know him well and I'm guessing they think other things might have held him back from reaching his potential.

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