Make this a catch-all thread. Here's something people found useful. It's about running backs and their fantasy finishes compared to their team's offensive finishes.
Running Backs, Team Offenses, And Is There Any Link Between Them? There is.
Good fantasy RBs do not come from bad teams for the most part. Just looked at a study done on FantasyPros, IIRC. They found that running backs on good teams have a much more likely chance to score highly than backs on bad teams.
Actually, here it is. Mike Tagliere wrote the article. His is the block of text I've quoted after the link. The chart is his, as is the analysis. The reason I've provided the link is that he also does so for receivers and tight ends in the article. This is just about running backs.
https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/07/what-does-team-scoring-mean-to-fantasy-football/
July 10, 2010
Fantasy Pros
"The research behind this study goes through the last eight years of data on the top 36 running backs and wide receivers, top 24 quarterbacks, and top 12 tight ends, which gives us a rather large sample size of 288 running backs and wide receivers, 192 quarterbacks, and 96 tight ends. This is based on a per-game basis, as injuries can severely impact fantasy outcomes at year’s end. I’ve also eliminated those who played in less than four games, as that small of sample size can skew the final results. Let’s go position-by-position, as the results were significant at certain positions.
RUNNING BACKS
RB Finish # of Players T-6 Off. T-12 Off. T-18 Off. T-24 Off. Bottom-10
Top-6 48 39.6% 70.8% 85.4% 95.8% 6.3%
Top- 12 96 32.3% 60.4% 76.0% 90.6% 11.4%
Top-18 144 29.2% 52.8% 70.1% 86.8% 18.8%
Top-24 192 24.0% 44.3% 64.1% 81.3% 23.4%
Top-30 240 22.5% 42.9% 62.5% 80.4% 23.8%
Top-36 288 22.9% 43.4% 62.2% 80.6% 25.0%
This chart tells a story, and it’s that team-scoring matters a lot to running backs. Let’s do the math here: There are 32 teams in the NFL. The top-12 teams make up just 37.5 percent of the league, yet somehow, 70.8 percent of top-six running backs have come from those teams. To simplify the information, a running back is twice as likely to finish as a top-six running back if he’s on a top-12 scoring offense.
Christian McCaffrey was the third player in the last eight years to finish as a top-six running back while on a team outside the top-18 in scoring, highlighting just how unrepeatable that season is/was. Him and Saquon Barkley are the only players over the last three years who’ve been able to crack the top-six while on a team that’s outside the top-15 scoring teams. Bottom line – if you’re looking for breakout elite production, start scoping out the high-scoring teams.
Even moving beyond the elite tier of running backs and extending it to the top-12 at the position, we say top-12 scoring offenses (again, just 37.5 percent of the league) produce 60.4 percent of the RB1s. If you can predict which teams will finish top-12 in scoring, you can likely identify which running backs should be in your first few rounds. Of the 96 running backs who’ve been RB1s over the last seven years, just 11 of them have come from bottom-10 scoring offenses. Players going near RB1 territory who I’m concerned about because of this include Austin Ekeler, Le’Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon, and Josh Jacobs.
The primary takeaway from running backs is that team-scoring absolutely matters, and it should factor into your drafting process. If you know a running back is extremely talented but on a horrible offense, you must understand that it’s very unlikely he finishes inside RB1 territory, and even more rare for him to finish top-six at his position. A 6.3 percent chance, to be clear. If you’re on the clock and are left deciding between two running backs, go with the one who has the better quarterback, as his offense is likely to score more points. This process helped us find Aaron Jones and Chris Carson last year." - Mike Tagliere
