I like Everett, but I have to disagree on top 12. The stars would really need to align.
Last season, Wilson attempted 558 passes, a regular season career high. It doesn't seem likely that pass attempts will go up; it seems more likely they could go down.
The team had 4 TEs who were targeted:
- Olsen - 24/239/1 on 37 targets in 11 games
- Dissly - 24/251/2 on 29 targets in 16 games
- Hollister - 25/209/3 on 40 targets in 16 games
- Parkinson - 2/16/0 on 2 targets in 6 games
Olsen and Hollister are gone, the other two remain. So 49/448/4 TE production on 77 targets was vacated. In PPR, that production would have ranked around TE20 last season.
Dissly has 8 TDs and has averaged 12.2 ypr and 9.6 yards per target on 70 career targets. For reference, 9.6 YPT is the same as Metcalf's career number and above Lockett's (9.4). So I doubt Dissly will lose targets, especially since he had fewer than 2 targets per game. It seems more likely Dissly could gain targets.
Seattle did lose its #3 WR, David Moore, who last season had 35/417/6 on 47 targets. Everett would have to get a lot of those targets and/or benefit from injuries to other skill players to have a shot at a top 12 finish.
The most positive sign is that the team has a new OC, and he came from the Rams and was signed before the team signed Everett, and presumably had input. But he was the Rams passing game coordinator 2018-2020... during that span, Everett
111/1145/6 on 172 targets in 45 games, which scales to 39/407/2 over 16 games. McVay called the plays for the Rams, not Waldron, so who knows, maybe Waldron will use Everett in a way he was not used in LA.