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Fantastic source Mike Clay's 2023 NFL Projection Guide *2023 UPDATE* (1 Viewer)

Wow, this is really awesome.
It goes beyond fantasy as it includes every position so it is also very helpful if you are trying to figure out draft needs for your NFL team or the other teams in your division or those picking ahead of your team.

 
Mike Clay was top-notch at PFF and he's top-notch over at ESPN+. ESPN+ is still a great place for information because of him.

 
Super Bowl champs Tampa Bay with the easiest schedule.  :P

WASH has the 13th best OL and the 14th best WR corps while having the 27th ranked LBs. How will they not use their first draft pick on a LB?

 
Dan Snyder
This is true and not true.  Rumor is he forced the qb pick.  However the other firsts have been hits.  The DL is loaded with the firsts and they hit on McLaurin and Gibson.  Unless they get a decent deal for one of the qb's i think they go OL or LB.  They are on the rise as long as Snyder is kept at arms length by Rivera.  If you look at Rivera's history with Carolina  he likes his DL to be strong and he has that now and it is very young.  Watch out for them picking the Standford QB in the second round.  (Can't remember his name)  i swear I see Luck in all his actions, obviously not as good but underrated i think.

 
Super Bowl champs Tampa Bay with the easiest schedule.  :P

WASH has the 13th best OL and the 14th best WR corps while having the 27th ranked LBs. How will they not use their first draft pick on a LB?
If the value isn't right. I think they probably need to pick one sometime in the first 4 rounds, but it certainly does not have to be round 1. Depending on how the draft falls I think FS, OT, WR, or a trade up for QB could all make sense for them.

 
I appreciate his work but some comments on the Chargers projections:

  1. He shows the Chargers with 4 RBs, 4 TEs, 1 FB, and 7 WRs, all playing 15-16 games. That is 1-2 too many roster spots for these position groups... I think they keep a max of 25 offensive players and a minimum of 8 OL.
  2. This does not show QB3 Stick. I think the Chargers should release him at cutdown and put him on the practice squad, but I'm not confident they will do it. If they don't, that is another roster spot that would take away a skill position.
  3. IMO the most likely scenario is that drafting WR Palmer pushes WR Hill off the final roster, and drafting TE McKitty pushes FB Nabers off the final roster. These changes don't materially affect his Chargers projections, since both of those players were projected for very little production.
 
I appreciate his work but some comments on the Chargers projections:

  1. He shows the Chargers with 4 RBs, 4 TEs, 1 FB, and 7 WRs, all playing 15-16 games. That is 1-2 too many roster spots for these position groups... I think they keep a max of 25 offensive players and a minimum of 8 OL.
  2. This does not show QB3 Stick. I think the Chargers should release him at cutdown and put him on the practice squad, but I'm not confident they will do it. If they don't, that is another roster spot that would take away a skill position.
  3. IMO the most likely scenario is that drafting WR Palmer pushes WR Hill off the final roster, and drafting TE McKitty pushes FB Nabers off the final roster. These changes don't materially affect his Chargers projections, since both of those players were projected for very little production.
You think Hill would be the odd man out? I was thinking Johnson might be. Hill feels like he's the top slot WR backup, and plays special teams. 

 
You think Hill would be the odd man out? I was thinking Johnson might be. Hill feels like he's the top slot WR backup, and plays special teams. 
I know some do not value PFF grades and statistics, but I do. They aren't perfect, of course, but I find them to be a good representation of my impressions of how these two players performed last season. Comparing Johnson and Hill in 2020:

  • Offense:

    Johnson - overall grade 78.4 (4th highest on team) in 265 snaps, receiving grade 81.2 (4th highest on team) in 170 snaps, run blocking grade 53.0 in 91 snaps
  • Hill - overall grade 55.0 (30th on team) in 147 snaps, receiving grade 53.7 (16th highest on team) in 100 snaps, run blocking grade 64.7 in 47 snaps
  • Johnson had the highest passer rating when targeted on the team (156.7) and Hill had the third lowest (82.8)
  • Johnson had 20 receptions, 15 first downs, and 3 TDs in 26 targets; Hill had 7 receptions, 2 first downs, and 0 TDs in 11 targets
  • Johnson also led the team in YPR, ADOT, and yards per route run; led the team's WRs in catch percentage; and had 0 drops in 26 targets

[*]Special teams:

  • Hill played 91 special teams snaps, but he was terrible; he tied for the second lowest PFF grade (42.6) among 61 Chargers special teams players
  • Johnson wasn't great but was better, with a 60.7 grade in 63 snaps, which tied for 38th best on the team

As for slot play, Allen led the team with 287 snaps in the slot last year, and Guyton was next among Chargers WRs with 251. Hill was 4th among WRs with 58. I think the team can replace Hill's slot production with Guyton, Palmer, and Reed (if Reed makes the team). I also expect more 2 TE sets this season, with HC Staley coming from the Rams and OC Lombardi coming from the Saints; this implies fewer slot snaps for WRs.

IMO Hill will need to be significantly improved on both offense and special teams to make the final roster this season. And if he does make it, I would expect it to be at the expense of Reed, not Johnson.

 
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I'll take the under in the following:

Kyle Pitts' projected 65 recs, 760 yards, 5 tds,

K.  Golladay's 69/1055 yard projection. he won't break 55/1000 yards.
Miles Sander's won't sniff 1128 rushing yards, that's a tough schedule for Philly.I'd love for him to do as well as projected,  but I dont see it.

I'll take the over in the following:

N. Harris will rush for more than 959 yards with the Steelers.

A. Gibson will catch more than 37 balls for WFT

on another note:

Josh Allen will not , repeat , NOT, be the No. 1 QB in the NFL this season. he's a strong regression candidate.Tougher schedule

Bills could very well be  0-2 heading into week 3 against WFT - a tough up-n-comer team.very real potential for an 0-3 start.  chalk up another loss against KC in week 5, and potential loss agains Titans in Tenn week 6..at Bucs in Dec another loss.  I can't see a QB from a 10-6 , 11-5 team being the #1 QB in the league. not entirely convinced there isn't a high percentage of 'fluke' in Josh Allen. Dolphins are better. NE will bounce back. Jets might be better. It was a perfect storm for the Bills in 2020 but I think that runs out this year.

 
Tanner9919 said:
on another note:

Josh Allen will not , repeat , NOT, be the No. 1 QB in the NFL this season. he's a strong regression candidate.Tougher schedule

Bills could very well be  0-2 heading into week 3 against WFT - a tough up-n-comer team.very real potential for an 0-3 start.  chalk up another loss against KC in week 5, and potential loss agains Titans in Tenn week 6..at Bucs in Dec another loss.  I can't see a QB from a 10-6 , 11-5 team being the #1 QB in the league. not entirely convinced there isn't a high percentage of 'fluke' in Josh Allen. Dolphins are better. NE will bounce back. Jets might be better. It was a perfect storm for the Bills in 2020 but I think that runs out this year.
You may be right that Allen won't repeat as QB1, but the bolded feels completely illogical. Plenty of guys have been QB1 on teams that won fewer than 12 games. A quick list:

2017-Russell Wilson

2016-Aaron Rodgers

2012-Drew Brees

2010-Michael Vick

2009-Aaron Rodgers

2008-Drew Brees

2005-Carson Palmer

2004-Daunte Culpepper

2003-Daunte Culpepper

2002-Rich Gannon

So over the last 20 years, exactly half the QB's who finished as QB1, came from a team who won 11 or fewer games. I think there may be some recency bias with Allen, Jackson, and Mahomes having been the last 3 QB1s, but record isn't prohibitive. 

 
Tanner9919 said:
I'll take the under in the following:

Kyle Pitts' projected 65 recs, 760 yards, 5 tds,

K.  Golladay's 69/1055 yard projection. he won't break 55/1000 yards.
Miles Sander's won't sniff 1128 rushing yards, that's a tough schedule for Philly.I'd love for him to do as well as projected,  but I dont see it.

I'll take the over in the following:

N. Harris will rush for more than 959 yards with the Steelers.

A. Gibson will catch more than 37 balls for WFT

on another note:

Josh Allen will not , repeat , NOT, be the No. 1 QB in the NFL this season. he's a strong regression candidate.Tougher schedule

Bills could very well be  0-2 heading into week 3 against WFT - a tough up-n-comer team.very real potential for an 0-3 start.  chalk up another loss against KC in week 5, and potential loss agains Titans in Tenn week 6..at Bucs in Dec another loss.  I can't see a QB from a 10-6 , 11-5 team being the #1 QB in the league. not entirely convinced there isn't a high percentage of 'fluke' in Josh Allen. Dolphins are better. NE will bounce back. Jets might be better. It was a perfect storm for the Bills in 2020 but I think that runs out this year.
In 7 games against top 10 defenses last year Allen threw for 4+ TDs 3 times. They play only 3 games against projected top 10 defenses this year. Most projections are that they have one of the easiest schedules this year.

Of course projecting top defenses and schedule difficulty is pretty tough, but Allen has done pretty well against top defenses regardless.

Projecting anyone as the top player at their position is pretty dicey, but I think there is strong reason to believe Allen will be one of the top QBs statistically again this year.

 
UPDATE!

I don't remember Clay putting out cheat sheets in the past but he has this year.

In addition to NFL projections Clay has put out FF cheat sheets for all formats.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL

2021 @ESPNFantasy

Football Cheatsheet Central is alive! PPR and Non-PPR positional and Top 300. Dynasty and rookie. Depth charts. #ClayProjections PDF. All here:

LINK to FF cheat sheets

Here is the non - PPR cheat sheet.  >>  non - PPR

Go to the link for the rest.

Great to have in one easy to use list that is printable.

 
Bullish on Watson. Check out those Houston QB projections.  :oldunsure:

Also extremely bullish on Jamarr Chase, with the Cincy wideout trio pretty much all 75/900.

Great stuff for reference/sanity check.

 
Wow.  There is an insane amount of info in this.  Must have taken him forever.  All useful stuff too.
It really is a great all-in-one. O lines, returns, IDP projections, breaks down projected leaders by position, et al. 

The projections themselves are debatable but the breadth is awesome.

______________

Off topic, but really impressed with the thoroughness in the FBGs rankings. We draft 18 rounds and I actually care about the 150-300 ranks and have noticed it seems like an afterthought at other big name sites. Going through it last night I was struck that they didn't just go through the motions when it comes to the deeper tiers. Will be especially helpful working the WW after injuries hit.

 
Bullish on Watson. Check out those Houston QB projections.  :oldunsure:

Also extremely bullish on Jamarr Chase, with the Cincy wideout trio pretty much all 75/900.

Great stuff for reference/sanity check.
If Watson starts 10 games, he's probably a league winner for where he'll be going. 

If he had no looming suspension over his head, he'd be my QB3. Probably a bit high on Tyrod's passing, and too low on his rushing.

 
Updated today, first time since 6/8 or so.

I didn't save a local copy of his previous projections but a couple stood out:

  • looks like he has bumped up Chase to over 1K receiving now WR25
  • Hockenson got a bump in targets to 120, lowered the undraftable starting WRs (ARSB stayed the same)
  • has A-Rod playing full season and Adams as WR1 overall
  • dropped Watson from his projections, does not play in 2021
  • ETN up to RB24
That's the observations of a late middle aged manager with sketchy memory but thought folks would like to know he updated his terrific document.

:thumbup:

 
IIRC he had the main 3 Bengals WR with 90 targets each and nothing that in another discussion that I expected Chase to have the most then Highins and Boyd.

I haven't looked at the update yet but I'm guessing it's closer to that now than it was before.

eta - Nope he still has all 3 getting almost the same number of targets still.

 
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I love this. Any chance he updates this before the season starts?
He updates every few weeks.
He was updating every week during OTAs and Minicamp. Since we're In a news lull until TC starts, makes sense he cut back on the frequency. I think once teams get into camps and some of these position battles start to take a more definitive form, he'll go back to weekly in August (probably.)

IIRC he had the main 3 Bengals WR with 90 targets each and nothing that in another discussion that I expected Chase to have the most then Highins and Boyd.

I haven't looked at the update yet but I'm guessing it's closer to that now than it was before.

eta - Nope he still has all 3 getting almost the same number of targets still.
Definitely one that seems hard to gauge, along with the Steelers WR shakeout. I think Burrow can support three productive WRs - I mean, just look at Bridgewater at Carolina last year (Moore, Anderson, Samuel.) After Jefferson I'm comfortable Chase is gonna be ready to rock Day One. Higgins is also very good. While Boyd seems like the least likely to be fantasy relevant, he is an outstanding slot WR (though Chase might eat into some of his time there as well per minicamp reports.)  

Other situations I've been thinking about are the Jaguars and the 49ers. I've been looking at a couple studies about rookie quarterbacks and their effect on teammates production. This podcast (12:34) summarizes the findings of the most recent one (2011-2020) and a longer study (2000-2015.) Basically, with rookie QBs we've never seen two top 24s (maybe the closest was Luck with Wayne at WR10 and young T.Y. at WR31.) When we include elite TEs, basically only 1WR is likely based on the historical data to post a Top 40. This is especially true for running QBs (Lance.)

With Jax, I think MJJ is probably looking at a WR4/WR5 season (but Marvin being Marvin, don't be surprised when one of his good matchup weeks is 150 & 3.) I love Chark's talent but at least initially it seems like they are pumping Shenault. Maybe the key there is ignore the chatter and watch what they do - coaches say all kind of things to motivate players. But Meyer is a WC who will be unpredictable so who knows. 

In SF, I think Kittle is always going to get his, and it's a question if you think Ayuik is significantly better than Deebo. I believe that to be true, but you could also argue Deebo is just as good when healthy. Then you start digging into injury history and realize Samuel has had four hamstring injuries + 1 groin going back to 2015.

As for the other rookie QBs and their effect on teammates, ARob will be playing with the best QB he's ever seen whenever Fields takes over. Dude balls no matter who the lousy QB is. Mac Jones, if he even wins the job, will still find his TEs, and I hate the NE receiving corps this year. I'm not targeting any Jets except maybe Carter if the price is right (in that range I prefer Williams or Sermon.)

Dallas is another intriguing situation. Cooper + Dak, going back to the last 8 games of 2018, has been highly productive. Lamb might make the second year jump. This seems to lead a lot of folks to conclude Gallup is due for a regression. I don't know - I kind of favor a WR3 in a high powered offense versus say the WR1s playing in Jersey this fall (Golladay and Davis.) But I have less faith that most in Zach and Danny Dimes. Dallas was really cooking the first five weeks last year, and despite their all defense draft strategy, they're still going to be in a lot of shootouts due to their below average defense.

Circling back to the Steelers, it kind of all depends on how good Ben's arm is this year. Lot of variables. They'll run the ball a little more, though the line is highly questionable. They have a rookie TE who be splitting time with Ebron, I don't think he'll ascend this year. Johnson is super inefficient for the number of targets he sees. JJSS versus Claypool is pretty one-side when it comes to ADOT, but as much as people love to bag on him, the USC guy is still going to see a ton of targets. Claypool is an enormous talent but I don't think they want to repeat what they did last year in terms of passing volume.

We'll have a little more information in 6-8 weeks that will help decipher some of these muddled situations.

 
Tom Brady looks like he's the steal of the draft based on these rankings. 
I mean... if he stays healthy he has the most ridiculous WR corps I have ever seen with another off season together... and he threw 40 tds last year.... 

The last 7 games of the season he threw 2235 yards, 20 TDs, 1 rush TD, and 5 ints...

In the playoffs last year against better competition he threw 10 tds and 3 ints in 4 games... and beat Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes ....

this might be the first year I am excited to target him at QB because of the potential value, and his recent show of personality more makes it more fun

 
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He was updating every week during OTAs and Minicamp. Since we're In a news lull until TC starts, makes sense he cut back on the frequency. I think once teams get into camps and some of these position battles start to take a more definitive form, he'll go back to weekly in August (probably.)

Definitely one that seems hard to gauge, along with the Steelers WR shakeout. I think Burrow can support three productive WRs - I mean, just look at Bridgewater at Carolina last year (Moore, Anderson, Samuel.) After Jefferson I'm comfortable Chase is gonna be ready to rock Day One. Higgins is also very good. While Boyd seems like the least likely to be fantasy relevant, he is an outstanding slot WR (though Chase might eat into some of his time there as well per minicamp reports.)  
Yeah there is a lot of unknown here. I guess thats what interests me. I think Chase ends up leading these 3 WR by a larger margin than Clay does but the other 2 will have their days too for sure. I just dont see the distribution being as even as Clay has been projecting them. Its reasonable to lean on the WR who already have a NFL season under their belt or several in the case of Boyd on his 2nd contract, but the QB already has rapport with Chase from college which in my view negates a lot of that.

The passing volume may be such that all 3 WR are useful for fantasy in 2021 I just expect there to be more separation in their numbers than what Clay has been projecting and as Ive said before I expect it to be Chase, Higgins then Boyd as far as fantasy points although Boyd may have similar number of receptions as Higgins (and fewer than Chase) I think Higgins has more yards, and Chse will have more yards and receptions than either of them due to higher targets.

But honestly its any bodies guess and Clays guess is as good as mine.

Other situations I've been thinking about are the Jaguars and the 49ers. I've been looking at a couple studies about rookie quarterbacks and their effect on teammates production. This podcast (12:34) summarizes the findings of the most recent one (2011-2020) and a longer study (2000-2015.) Basically, with rookie QBs we've never seen two top 24s (maybe the closest was Luck with Wayne at WR10 and young T.Y. at WR31.) When we include elite TEs, basically only 1WR is likely based on the historical data to post a Top 40. This is especially true for running QBs (Lance.)
Thats interesting. Not surprising to me that rookie QB not good for a teams passing offense. Even Peyton Manning was terrible his rookie year.

With Jax, I think MJJ is probably looking at a WR4/WR5 season (but Marvin being Marvin, don't be surprised when one of his good matchup weeks is 150 & 3.) I love Chark's talent but at least initially it seems like they are pumping Shenault. Maybe the key there is ignore the chatter and watch what they do - coaches say all kind of things to motivate players. But Meyer is a WC who will be unpredictable so who knows. 
Who will be Jones victim for a huge game this year if he doesn't play the Vikings? LOL

This team is total enigma to me. They have some players I am very interested in so I am actually paying attention to them now but yeah no predictions from me. I am skeptical of LS and Chark and Jones being the pro he is, I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up their best WR. I really don't know right now though and I won't know much until after week 4 of the regular season.

In SF, I think Kittle is always going to get his, and it's a question if you think Ayuik is significantly better than Deebo. I believe that to be true, but you could also argue Deebo is just as good when healthy. Then you start digging into injury history and realize Samuel has had four hamstring injuries + 1 groin going back to 2015.
That has always been a risk with these Percy Harvin type of players who make such sharp and violent cuts (which I love to see) is that they tend to hurt themselves doing that all the time too. I think Aiyuk is the more complete receiver of the two but I dont think the difference between them is that much as far as talent level. I trust Aiyuk on the deep balls more is mainly it. Kittle got very over valued on a excellent but small sample size of performance that has not been repeated IIRC.

As for the other rookie QBs and their effect on teammates, ARob will be playing with the best QB he's ever seen whenever Fields takes over. Dude balls no matter who the lousy QB is. Mac Jones, if he even wins the job, will still find his TEs, and I hate the NE receiving corps this year. I'm not targeting any Jets except maybe Carter if the price is right (in that range I prefer Williams or Sermon.)
Yeah Trubisky was so bad that a rookie QB might be an improvement I agree. As a Vikings fan I am more worried about his ability to run than his ability to throw right now.

Dallas is another intriguing situation. Cooper + Dak, going back to the last 8 games of 2018, has been highly productive. Lamb might make the second year jump. This seems to lead a lot of folks to conclude Gallup is due for a regression. I don't know - I kind of favor a WR3 in a high powered offense versus say the WR1s playing in Jersey this fall (Golladay and Davis.) But I have less faith that most in Zach and Danny Dimes. Dallas was really cooking the first five weeks last year, and despite their all defense draft strategy, they're still going to be in a lot of shootouts due to their below average defense.
I think we saw enough of Lamb last year to consider him the top guy for Dallas. I love me some Lamb.

Circling back to the Steelers, it kind of all depends on how good Ben's arm is this year. Lot of variables. They'll run the ball a little more, though the line is highly questionable. They have a rookie TE who be splitting time with Ebron, I don't think he'll ascend this year. Johnson is super inefficient for the number of targets he sees. JJSS versus Claypool is pretty one-side when it comes to ADOT, but as much as people love to bag on him, the USC guy is still going to see a ton of targets. Claypool is an enormous talent but I don't think they want to repeat what they did last year in terms of passing volume.

We'll have a little more information in 6-8 weeks that will help decipher some of these muddled situations.
The thing with the Steelers and their receivers is that no team has thrown the ball more than them with Ben healthy sans Bell. 

I am guessing that changes somewhat because of Harris getting the ball a lot. Maybe the change is bigger than I think depending on Bens capabilities at this point.

Sorry it took so long to respond. There was a lot of meat to your post that I needed some time to respond to properly. 

 
Not sure where to stick this, so let's try here.

Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown played 11 games together last year (including playoffs):
Evans
* 48/786/7
* 77 targets; 19.1% share
* 15.3 fantasy points per game
Godwin
* 51/683/6
* 78 targets; 19.3% TS
* 14.1 FPG
Brown
* 53/542/6
* 74 targets; 18.3% TS
* 13.0 FPG
Consensus ADP: Evans 39.8 (WR14), Godwin 43.3 (WR18), Brown 113.3 (WR44)

Their ranks over the last 8 Weeks (7G) of the 2020 season in full PPR: Evans WR7, Godwin WR13, Brown WR16

ETA: each played 7 G in that stretch (WK13 bye) so no inflation due to one of them being injured

 
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Biabreakable said:
Who will be Jones victim for a huge game this year if he doesn't play the Vikings? LOL
2 games against Xavier Rhodes in Indy.

Biabreakable said:
Yeah Trubisky was so bad that a rookie QB might be an improvement I agree. 
I think Robinson might actually be hurt by better QB play. Far too often I think Trubisky and Foles forced some awful passes to Robinson out of a lack of trust of others, or just a failure to read defenses. I think Fields(and probably Dalton) will be more likely to spread things out a bit more. In non-PPR anyway, I think Robinson might be outside my top-20 WRs, even in PPR its the 15-20 range. 

BobbyLayne said:
Not sure where to stick this, so let's try here.

Consensus ADP: Evans 39.8 (WR14), Godwin 43.3 (WR18), Brown 113.3 (WR44)

Their ranks over the last 8 Weeks (7G) of the 2020 season in full PPR: Evans WR7, Godwin WR13, Brown WR16

ETA: each played 7 G in that stretch (WK13 bye) so no inflation due to one of them being injured
That is a great stat. I remember watching a few Tampa games last year thinking Godwin and Brown are basically equals. I think Evans is used differently enough, that his ADP is probably fair, but I think Godwin and Brown are far too separated. I think you could move them both about 10 spots or so. Brown looks like a potential league winner at WR44 if something happens to Godwin or Evans. Kind of like a WR version of Kareem Hunt.

 
That is a great stat. I remember watching a few Tampa games last year thinking Godwin and Brown are basically equals. I think Evansis used differently enough, that his ADP is probably fair, but I think Godwin and Brown are far too separated. I think you could move them both about 10 spots or so. Brown looks like a potential league winner at WR44 if something happens to Godwin or Evans. Kind of like a WR version of Kareem Hunt.
Not too surprising advanced receiving stats:

ADOT Evans 12.1, Godwin 10.2, Brown 8.9
YBC/r 10.6. 8.6, 5.2 
YAC/r 3.8, 4.3, 5.6
REC/brtck 35.0, 32.5, 15.0
PRAt 126.0, 131.1, 109.8

Brady will spread it around. Evans is still the alpha in my mind, 5 of the last 6 seasons he led the team in targets, in Godwin's breakout year he had only two less playing one fewer game. But I think AB is a little more effective than he's being given credit for in redraft ADP rn.

in RZ targets, Evans was 12/21 with 9 of his 13 TDs, while Godwin was 8/9 with 6 (of 7) scores. AB was 5/6 with only 1 of his 4 TDs being a RZ target.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Not sure where to stick this, so let's try here.

Consensus ADP: Evans 39.8 (WR14), Godwin 43.3 (WR18), Brown 113.3 (WR44)

Their ranks over the last 8 Weeks (7G) of the 2020 season in full PPR: Evans WR7, Godwin WR13, Brown WR16

ETA: each played 7 G in that stretch (WK13 bye) so no inflation due to one of them being injured
That is a great stat. I remember watching a few Tampa games last year thinking Godwin and Brown are basically equals. I think Evans is used differently enough, that his ADP is probably fair, but I think Godwin and Brown are far too separated. I think you could move them both about 10 spots or so. Brown looks like a potential league winner at WR44 if something happens to Godwin or Evans. Kind of like a WR version of Kareem Hunt.
I just got A Brown as my ***WR 5*** at the 8/9 turn in best ball.   :crazy:

 
2 games against Xavier Rhodes in Indy.
Oh boy. Start him if you got him. 😄

To be fair Jones was running circles around whoever the Vikings put on him, for multiple seasons as well, but Rhodes was on the bad end of more of them than anyone else IIRC.

I think Robinson might actually be hurt by better QB play. Far too often I think Trubisky and Foles forced some awful passes to Robinson out of a lack of trust of others, or just a failure to read defenses. I think Fields(and probably Dalton) will be more likely to spread things out a bit more. In non-PPR anyway, I think Robinson might be outside my top-20 WRs, even in PPR its the 15-20 range. 
That is a fair point to consider. I have seen the same thing, they just throw up a prayer because Robinson is so good at high pointing the ball, he will come down with it most of the time anyways. On the other hand Fields and Dalton should come to the same realization as well.

 

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