I love this. Any chance he updates this before the season starts?
He updates every few weeks.
He was updating every week during OTAs and Minicamp. Since we're In a news lull until TC starts, makes sense he cut back on the frequency. I think once teams get into camps and some of these position battles start to take a more definitive form, he'll go back to weekly in August (probably.)
IIRC he had the main 3 Bengals WR with 90 targets each and nothing that in another discussion that I expected Chase to have the most then Highins and Boyd.
I haven't looked at the update yet but I'm guessing it's closer to that now than it was before.
eta - Nope he still has all 3 getting almost the same number of targets still.
Definitely one that seems hard to gauge, along with the Steelers WR shakeout. I think Burrow can support three productive WRs - I mean, just look at Bridgewater at Carolina last year (Moore, Anderson, Samuel.) After Jefferson I'm comfortable Chase is gonna be ready to rock Day One. Higgins is also very good. While Boyd seems like the least likely to be fantasy relevant, he is an outstanding slot WR (though Chase might eat into some of his time there as well per minicamp reports.)
Other situations I've been thinking about are the Jaguars and the 49ers. I've been looking at a couple studies about rookie quarterbacks and their effect on teammates production.
This podcast (12:34) summarizes the findings of the most recent one (2011-2020) and a longer study (2000-2015.) Basically, with rookie QBs we've never seen two top 24s (maybe the closest was Luck with Wayne at WR10 and young T.Y. at WR31.) When we include elite TEs, basically only 1WR is likely based on the historical data to post a Top 40. This is especially true for running QBs (Lance.)
With Jax, I think MJJ is probably looking at a WR4/WR5 season (but Marvin being Marvin, don't be surprised when one of his good matchup weeks is 150 & 3.) I love Chark's talent but at least initially it seems like they are pumping Shenault. Maybe the key there is ignore the chatter and watch what they do - coaches say all kind of things to motivate players. But Meyer is a WC who will be unpredictable so who knows.
In SF, I think Kittle is always going to get his, and it's a question if you think Ayuik is significantly better than Deebo. I believe that to be true, but you could also argue Deebo is just as good when healthy. Then you start digging into injury history and realize Samuel has had four hamstring injuries + 1 groin going back to 2015.
As for the other rookie QBs and their effect on teammates, ARob will be playing with the best QB he's ever seen whenever Fields takes over. Dude balls no matter who the lousy QB is. Mac Jones, if he even wins the job, will still find his TEs, and I hate the NE receiving corps this year. I'm not targeting any Jets except maybe Carter if the price is right (in that range I prefer Williams or Sermon.)
Dallas is another intriguing situation. Cooper + Dak, going back to the last 8 games of 2018, has been highly productive. Lamb might make the second year jump. This seems to lead a lot of folks to conclude Gallup is due for a regression. I don't know - I kind of favor a WR3 in a high powered offense versus say the WR1s playing in Jersey this fall (Golladay and Davis.) But I have less faith that most in Zach and Danny Dimes. Dallas was really cooking the first five weeks last year, and despite their all defense draft strategy, they're still going to be in a lot of shootouts due to their below average defense.
Circling back to the Steelers, it kind of all depends on how good Ben's arm is this year. Lot of variables. They'll run the ball a little more, though the line is highly questionable. They have a rookie TE who be splitting time with Ebron, I don't think he'll ascend this year. Johnson is super inefficient for the number of targets he sees. JJSS versus Claypool is pretty one-side when it comes to ADOT, but as much as people love to bag on him, the USC guy is still going to see a ton of targets. Claypool is an enormous talent but I don't think they want to repeat what they did last year in terms of passing volume.
We'll have a little more information in 6-8 weeks that will help decipher some of these muddled situations.