Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Fantastic source Mike Clay's 2021 projections


Recommended Posts

16 minutes ago, foxco said:

Wow, this is really awesome.

It goes beyond fantasy as it includes every position so it is also very helpful if you are trying to figure out draft needs for your NFL team or the other teams in your division or those picking ahead of your team.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Mike Clay was top-notch at PFF and he's top-notch over at ESPN+. ESPN+ is still a great place for information because of him.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If you follow him on twitter he does this for every game during the season

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Fear The Turtle said:

How will they not use their first draft pick on a LB?

Dan Snyder

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Dan Snyder

This is true and not true.  Rumor is he forced the qb pick.  However the other firsts have been hits.  The DL is loaded with the firsts and they hit on McLaurin and Gibson.  Unless they get a decent deal for one of the qb's i think they go OL or LB.  They are on the rise as long as Snyder is kept at arms length by Rivera.  If you look at Rivera's history with Carolina  he likes his DL to be strong and he has that now and it is very young.  Watch out for them picking the Standford QB in the second round.  (Can't remember his name)  i swear I see Luck in all his actions, obviously not as good but underrated i think.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/11/2021 at 9:24 AM, Fear The Turtle said:

Super Bowl champs Tampa Bay with the easiest schedule. :P

WASH has the 13th best OL and the 14th best WR corps while having the 27th ranked LBs. How will they not use their first draft pick on a LB?

If the value isn't right. I think they probably need to pick one sometime in the first 4 rounds, but it certainly does not have to be round 1. Depending on how the draft falls I think FS, OT, WR, or a trade up for QB could all make sense for them.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 4 weeks later...

UPDATED rankings for EVERY TEAM and EVERY PLAYER

LINK >>  Clay 2021 Projections

Mike Clay

@MikeClayNFL

The 2021 NFL #ClayProjections PDF is updated! -32 Team Pages -Positional leaderboards -Category leaderboards -Unit Grades -Depth Charts -Strength of Schedule -Final standings -2021 Draft Order -Coach & Playcallers

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Dang, people going to be real disappointed with Kyle Pitts if they are expecting a huge rookie season. But seriously, this is so fun to look at.

What the hell is he thinking?  That only projects to the 5th best rookie season by a TE ever.

  • Laughing 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/11/2021 at 8:26 AM, Penguin said:

If you follow him on twitter he does this for every game during the season

Wow, a single reason to install/follow twitter. No snark either. This might be the most compelling reason that I have found yet.

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, the spanker said:

Are these full point or half point ppr rankings?  I don't see anywhere where format is listed.

Based on some quick calculations they look like full point PPR

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I appreciate his work but some comments on the Chargers projections:

  1. He shows the Chargers with 4 RBs, 4 TEs, 1 FB, and 7 WRs, all playing 15-16 games. That is 1-2 too many roster spots for these position groups... I think they keep a max of 25 offensive players and a minimum of 8 OL.
  2. This does not show QB3 Stick. I think the Chargers should release him at cutdown and put him on the practice squad, but I'm not confident they will do it. If they don't, that is another roster spot that would take away a skill position.
  3. IMO the most likely scenario is that drafting WR Palmer pushes WR Hill off the final roster, and drafting TE McKitty pushes FB Nabers off the final roster. These changes don't materially affect his Chargers projections, since both of those players were projected for very little production.
Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

I appreciate his work but some comments on the Chargers projections:

  1. He shows the Chargers with 4 RBs, 4 TEs, 1 FB, and 7 WRs, all playing 15-16 games. That is 1-2 too many roster spots for these position groups... I think they keep a max of 25 offensive players and a minimum of 8 OL.
  2. This does not show QB3 Stick. I think the Chargers should release him at cutdown and put him on the practice squad, but I'm not confident they will do it. If they don't, that is another roster spot that would take away a skill position.
  3. IMO the most likely scenario is that drafting WR Palmer pushes WR Hill off the final roster, and drafting TE McKitty pushes FB Nabers off the final roster. These changes don't materially affect his Chargers projections, since both of those players were projected for very little production.

You think Hill would be the odd man out? I was thinking Johnson might be. Hill feels like he's the top slot WR backup, and plays special teams. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, travdogg said:

You think Hill would be the odd man out? I was thinking Johnson might be. Hill feels like he's the top slot WR backup, and plays special teams. 

I know some do not value PFF grades and statistics, but I do. They aren't perfect, of course, but I find them to be a good representation of my impressions of how these two players performed last season. Comparing Johnson and Hill in 2020:

  • Offense:
    • Johnson - overall grade 78.4 (4th highest on team) in 265 snaps, receiving grade 81.2 (4th highest on team) in 170 snaps, run blocking grade 53.0 in 91 snaps
    • Hill - overall grade 55.0 (30th on team) in 147 snaps, receiving grade 53.7 (16th highest on team) in 100 snaps, run blocking grade 64.7 in 47 snaps
    • Johnson had the highest passer rating when targeted on the team (156.7) and Hill had the third lowest (82.8)
    • Johnson had 20 receptions, 15 first downs, and 3 TDs in 26 targets; Hill had 7 receptions, 2 first downs, and 0 TDs in 11 targets
    • Johnson also led the team in YPR, ADOT, and yards per route run; led the team's WRs in catch percentage; and had 0 drops in 26 targets
  • Special teams:
    • Hill played 91 special teams snaps, but he was terrible; he tied for the second lowest PFF grade (42.6) among 61 Chargers special teams players
    • Johnson wasn't great but was better, with a 60.7 grade in 63 snaps, which tied for 38th best on the team

As for slot play, Allen led the team with 287 snaps in the slot last year, and Guyton was next among Chargers WRs with 251. Hill was 4th among WRs with 58. I think the team can replace Hill's slot production with Guyton, Palmer, and Reed (if Reed makes the team). I also expect more 2 TE sets this season, with HC Staley coming from the Rams and OC Lombardi coming from the Saints; this implies fewer slot snaps for WRs.

IMO Hill will need to be significantly improved on both offense and special teams to make the final roster this season. And if he does make it, I would expect it to be at the expense of Reed, not Johnson.

Edited by Just Win Baby
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll take the under in the following:

Kyle Pitts' projected 65 recs, 760 yards, 5 tds,

K.  Golladay's 69/1055 yard projection. he won't break 55/1000 yards.
Miles Sander's won't sniff 1128 rushing yards, that's a tough schedule for Philly.I'd love for him to do as well as projected,  but I dont see it.

 

I'll take the over in the following:

N. Harris will rush for more than 959 yards with the Steelers.

A. Gibson will catch more than 37 balls for WFT

 

on another note:

Josh Allen will not , repeat , NOT, be the No. 1 QB in the NFL this season. he's a strong regression candidate.Tougher schedule

Bills could very well be  0-2 heading into week 3 against WFT - a tough up-n-comer team.very real potential for an 0-3 start.  chalk up another loss against KC in week 5, and potential loss agains Titans in Tenn week 6..at Bucs in Dec another loss.  I can't see a QB from a 10-6 , 11-5 team being the #1 QB in the league. not entirely convinced there isn't a high percentage of 'fluke' in Josh Allen. Dolphins are better. NE will bounce back. Jets might be better. It was a perfect storm for the Bills in 2020 but I think that runs out this year.

 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

on another note:

Josh Allen will not , repeat , NOT, be the No. 1 QB in the NFL this season. he's a strong regression candidate.Tougher schedule

Bills could very well be  0-2 heading into week 3 against WFT - a tough up-n-comer team.very real potential for an 0-3 start.  chalk up another loss against KC in week 5, and potential loss agains Titans in Tenn week 6..at Bucs in Dec another loss.  I can't see a QB from a 10-6 , 11-5 team being the #1 QB in the league. not entirely convinced there isn't a high percentage of 'fluke' in Josh Allen. Dolphins are better. NE will bounce back. Jets might be better. It was a perfect storm for the Bills in 2020 but I think that runs out this year.

You may be right that Allen won't repeat as QB1, but the bolded feels completely illogical. Plenty of guys have been QB1 on teams that won fewer than 12 games. A quick list:

2017-Russell Wilson

2016-Aaron Rodgers

2012-Drew Brees

2010-Michael Vick

2009-Aaron Rodgers

2008-Drew Brees

2005-Carson Palmer

2004-Daunte Culpepper

2003-Daunte Culpepper

2002-Rich Gannon

So over the last 20 years, exactly half the QB's who finished as QB1, came from a team who won 11 or fewer games. I think there may be some recency bias with Allen, Jackson, and Mahomes having been the last 3 QB1s, but record isn't prohibitive. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

I'll take the under in the following:

Kyle Pitts' projected 65 recs, 760 yards, 5 tds,

K.  Golladay's 69/1055 yard projection. he won't break 55/1000 yards.
Miles Sander's won't sniff 1128 rushing yards, that's a tough schedule for Philly.I'd love for him to do as well as projected,  but I dont see it.

 

I'll take the over in the following:

N. Harris will rush for more than 959 yards with the Steelers.

A. Gibson will catch more than 37 balls for WFT

 

on another note:

Josh Allen will not , repeat , NOT, be the No. 1 QB in the NFL this season. he's a strong regression candidate.Tougher schedule

Bills could very well be  0-2 heading into week 3 against WFT - a tough up-n-comer team.very real potential for an 0-3 start.  chalk up another loss against KC in week 5, and potential loss agains Titans in Tenn week 6..at Bucs in Dec another loss.  I can't see a QB from a 10-6 , 11-5 team being the #1 QB in the league. not entirely convinced there isn't a high percentage of 'fluke' in Josh Allen. Dolphins are better. NE will bounce back. Jets might be better. It was a perfect storm for the Bills in 2020 but I think that runs out this year.

 

 

 

 

In 7 games against top 10 defenses last year Allen threw for 4+ TDs 3 times. They play only 3 games against projected top 10 defenses this year. Most projections are that they have one of the easiest schedules this year.

Of course projecting top defenses and schedule difficulty is pretty tough, but Allen has done pretty well against top defenses regardless.

Projecting anyone as the top player at their position is pretty dicey, but I think there is strong reason to believe Allen will be one of the top QBs statistically again this year.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

UPDATE!

I don't remember Clay putting out cheat sheets in the past but he has this year.

In addition to NFL projections Clay has put out FF cheat sheets for all formats.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL

2021 @ESPNFantasy

Football Cheatsheet Central is alive! PPR and Non-PPR positional and Top 300. Dynasty and rookie. Depth charts. #ClayProjections PDF. All here:

LINK to FF cheat sheets

Here is the non - PPR cheat sheet.  >>  non - PPR

Go to the link for the rest.

Great to have in one easy to use list that is printable.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/11/2021 at 7:24 AM, Fear The Turtle said:

WASH has the 13th best OL and the 14th best WR corps while having the 27th ranked LBs. How will they not use their first draft pick on a LB?

You got your wish!

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/10/2021 at 8:56 AM, Bracie Smathers said:

Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL

Check out every team at Clay Projections

Mike Clay's 2021 NFL Projection Guide

-------------------------------

EVERY TEAM with full projections for the season.

Incredibly valuable resource. 🧐 📈 📊

Wow.  There is an insane amount of info in this.  Must have taken him forever.  All useful stuff too.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Bullish on Watson. Check out those Houston QB projections. :oldunsure:

Also extremely bullish on Jamarr Chase, with the Cincy wideout trio pretty much all 75/900.

Great stuff for reference/sanity check.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Deamon said:

Wow.  There is an insane amount of info in this.  Must have taken him forever.  All useful stuff too.

It really is a great all-in-one. O lines, returns, IDP projections, breaks down projected leaders by position, et al. 

The projections themselves are debatable but the breadth is awesome.

______________

Off topic, but really impressed with the thoroughness in the FBGs rankings. We draft 18 rounds and I actually care about the 150-300 ranks and have noticed it seems like an afterthought at other big name sites. Going through it last night I was struck that they didn't just go through the motions when it comes to the deeper tiers. Will be especially helpful working the WW after injuries hit.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, tombonneau said:

Bullish on Watson. Check out those Houston QB projections. :oldunsure:

Also extremely bullish on Jamarr Chase, with the Cincy wideout trio pretty much all 75/900.

Great stuff for reference/sanity check.

If Watson starts 10 games, he's probably a league winner for where he'll be going. 

If he had no looming suspension over his head, he'd be my QB3. Probably a bit high on Tyrod's passing, and too low on his rushing.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...