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Fantastic source Mike Clay's 2023 NFL Projection Guide *2023 UPDATE* (1 Viewer)

Oh boy. Start him if you got him. 😄

To be fair Jones was running circles around whoever the Vikings put on him, for multiple seasons as well, but Rhodes was on the bad end of more of them than anyone else IIRC.

That is a fair point to consider. I have seen the same thing, they just throw up a prayer because Robinson is so good at high pointing the ball, he will come down with it most of the time anyways. On the other hand Fields and Dalton should come to the same realization as well.
I think the Bears might have a really good player in Darnell Mooney. I'm not as high as Nagy, comparing him to Tyreek or prime D-Jax, but if he had even average QB play last year he might have gone for 75-1000-8. He was open deep on so many horrid throws, and against guys like Jalen Ramsey no less, that his 61-631-4 line is basically an absolute floor in my opinion. I also think Kmet could take a step forward as TE's often do in year 2. 

Robinson is kind of on my avoid list based on where he's going. If he falls to round 4, then MAYBE I'll take him there, but as a guy going at the top of round 3 right now, nope.

 
I think the Bears might have a really good player in Darnell Mooney. I'm not as high as Nagy, comparing him to Tyreek or prime D-Jax, but if he had even average QB play last year he might have gone for 75-1000-8. He was open deep on so many horrid throws, and against guys like Jalen Ramsey no less, that his 61-631-4 line is basically an absolute floor in my opinion. I also think Kmet could take a step forward as TE's often do in year 2. 

Robinson is kind of on my avoid list based on where he's going. If he falls to round 4, then MAYBE I'll take him there, but as a guy going at the top of round 3 right now, nope.
I didnt see Mooney as Hill but yeah he seemed alright from what little I did see of him playing.

He did not jump out to me as that fast anyways.

 
Robinson is kind of on my avoid list based on where he's going. If he falls to round 4, then MAYBE I'll take him there, but as a guy going at the top of round 3 right now, nope.
I’m not avoiding by any means but I’m cool with him around WR10. Where that falls is very much league/draft specific. I am not seeing early third; he is going late third early fourth in most drafts I have done.

Right around Allen, Thomas, McLaurin, just ahead of Evans, Cooper. Four seasons of >150 targets and Fields is better than any QB he caught passes from his first 7 seasons.

Seems like consensus top 8 WR are: Adams, Brown, Diggs, Hill, Hopkins, Jefferson, Metcalf, Ridley. Debatable order but that’s the guys in the first 26-28 picks.

Where next? Target hog veterans: Allen, Cooper, Robinson, Thomas. Ascending: Lamb, McLaurin. Duos: Evans/Godwin, Woods/Kupp. Where to slot Julio? I love the 3rd/4th this year.

 
I’m not avoiding by any means but I’m cool with him around WR10. Where that falls is very much league/draft specific. I am not seeing early third; he is going late third early fourth in most drafts I have done.

Right around Allen, Thomas, McLaurin, just ahead of Evans, Cooper. Four seasons of >150 targets and Fields is better than any QB he caught passes from his first 7 seasons.

Seems like consensus top 8 WR are: Adams, Brown, Diggs, Hill, Hopkins, Jefferson, Metcalf, Ridley. Debatable order but that’s the guys in the first 26-28 picks.

Where next? Target hog veterans: Allen, Cooper, Robinson, Thomas. Ascending: Lamb, McLaurin. Duos: Evans/Godwin, Woods/Kupp. Where to slot Julio? I love the 3rd/4th this year.
Robinson was going 26th last I looked, but everybody's draft(and ADP's for that matter) will be different.

I would certainly take McLaurin, Thomas, Evans, Cooper, and dare I say Thielen(my favorite target this year) over Robinson. I can make a case for Allen, Lamb, and both Rams guys too. I want no part of Godwin or Julio though. For me that 3rd/4th area is a great spot for Waller/Kittle. 

 
Happy (belated) Bastille Day, Mike updated yesterday
I was just looking at his projections for the Lions.

I think his projection for Swift is getting closer to what I was thinking now.

I have some serious doubts about Perriman leading the team in targets. What do you think? 

I could see Cephus doing more and Perriman less for example.

 
I was just looking at his projections for the Lions.

I think his projection for Swift is getting closer to what I was thinking now.

I have some serious doubts about Perriman leading the team in targets. What do you think? 

I could see Cephus doing more and Perriman less for example.
Swift 

No change from Clay there. It’s been 1306 YFS with 8 rush/rec TDs and 66 catches every edition, good for RB16. Despite staff articles and video analysis and podcasts cautioning otherwise, the FBGs consensus projections are 1401/11.8/62.2 - RB12. That’s more optimistic than most, but I think he should do well in GL situations. The Lions GL carries last year: ADP 12-8 5TD, Swift 9-13 6TD. Jamaal was 5-(-1) 1TD, with Jones (an elite RZ option) getting 9-12 4TD. Lynn will utilize Swift in a similar manner as Eckler. As for this A back/B back stuff, Williams is not prime years Melvin Gordon. But he will have a role, probably his usual 700-750 YFS with 30-35 receptions. Good in pass pro & a terrific guy in the locker room. 

Cephus/Perriman/ARSB 

Here is a good breakdown of Quintez’s rookie campaign and expected role this year. He’s the WR4 IMO but that really depends on Williams health. Last year he split his boundary snaps on each aide (40% each) with 20% in the slot. Early and mid season he played outside with KG hurt, late in the year he couldn’t beat out Sanu (who came in off the street & clicked with Stafford right away) But he was able to steal snaps from the little guys (Agnew & Amendola) playing big slot. Had a good minicamp so stay tuned, but let’s remember he was the 22nd WR (of 35) last year, 166th overall. Mooney was 25th WR but established himself as a legit upside guy, I’m not seeing it from the former Badger.

Post-hype, Perriman has shown some competence. He’s not Torrey Smith, he’s more than just 9 routes. But it’s hard to get around he’s a 30-500-3 guy who’s on his 5th team in 5 years. In Winston’s 30-30 year he peaked at 36-645-6. It’s just gross trying to project the Lions WR room, it’s the worst in the league by a long ways, but I’m not buying a soon to be 28 year journeyman in his 6th year whose best attribute is taking the top off the D is now going to morph into a volume WR. Modest volume, but still...85-95 targets, 750-800 yards? Says who, the “somebody has to catch passes” crutch argument? Baloney. Also, worth noting we have heard nothing from OTAs or minicamp about Goff jelling with either Tyrell or Breshad.

Amon-Ra graded out at 6.21 on the leagues website, which is at the top of the range labeled, “good backup who could become starter”. Deep class at WR again, 36 taken and he was the 17th. Day 3 picks rarely produce a top 24 season during their career - less than 5% - unless they fell bc of huge red flags (Tyreek.) I get his lack of draft capital is not insignificant, but there’s a difference between top of the 4th and back of the 5th (Cephus was 54 picks later the year before.) When they took Alim in the 3rd the owner asked about WRs; Holmes pointed at the left side of the board. “See all these guys - it’s a very deep class, these are still coming off” then he points to the right side “but we think we can get the USC kid later.” So there at pick 72 they were thinking about him but knew they could get value at other positions. Anyway, good rookie camp, established a rapport with Goff in OTAs and minicamp, the coaches are impressed. They run 11 personnel 70-75% of the time and the slot WR is his to lose. My team projection is Hock will see 125-130 targets, Swift 85-90, and ARSB will lead the WR with 105-110. He’s not a shifty YAC guy and his RAS is just OK, but he runs crisp routes and he’s sure handed. Most importantly, I think he has Goff’s trust. It doesn’t hurt that he likes to block.

Goff last year had 6 pass completions that went for 35+ yards, which is super low (Allen & Mahomes had like 20 and 17, most QBs were low double digits.) Only 4 were deep passes and only 3 of those went to WRs. That’s with Woods & Kupp, both his projected boundary guys this year are deep ball threats. Poorly matched IMO. I expect ADOT to be below league average and given their QB limitations I think the rookie from USC is the best fit for what they’ll be trying to do.

 
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This is incredible. So valuable.

I was surprised to see Eagles OL ranked #3. If they perform as a top 5 line, makes me even higher on Miles Sanders. 
Thanks for pointing this out. I didnt even notice this part of the projections.

Mike is attacking this from a lot of different angles.

I looked at his ranking for the Titans offensive line he has them as average. From what I have heard from Bri I think he is under estimating how good they are.

 
Updated projections only a few hours ago.

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Mike Clay  V@MikeClayNFL

If you'd like to see this all together in a 65-page PDF with player projections by team and leaderboard + more, click here: https://bit.ly/3cWC4tY

LINK

 
How accurate were Clay's projections/predictions?

Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL

Self assessment time. 19-9-4 picking over/under win totals (off by an average of 1.68 across the league) 5-0 on my strongest plays (KC CAR IND SF MIA unders)

Best calls: ATL PIT NO BUF IND

Worst calls: NYG CIN JAX CLE LV

-----------------------------------------------------

Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL

6/8 picking division winners (miss: CLE SEA)

8/14 picking playoff teams (miss: CLE DEN BAL WAS SEA MIN) 6/7

picking sub 7-win teams (miss: NYG)

 
He was shockingly accurate in April.

The Browns at the 1 seed might have been his worst take, though the Bengals at pick #7 was pretty far off. He did have 6 of the first 7 draft picks correct, the only one missing was the Giants. He didn't have the order right, but Lions, Texans, Panthers, Jets, Bears, Jags were all top 7 in this upcoming draft. 

 
ALL team grades posted.

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Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL

2022 Pre-Free Agency NFL Unit Grades

Note that all retired players and UFAs are removed. #ClayProjections

LINK to chart 📊

 
ALL team grades posted.

----------------------------------------

Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL

2022 Pre-Free Agency NFL Unit Grades

Note that all retired players and UFAs are removed. #ClayProjections

LINK to chart 📊
Not sure how he determines his grades. As an example, he has the NE RB group ranked 22nd, even though Harris and Stevenson combined for roughly 1800 YFS/20 last season. I don't see how that gets the Pats a 1.4 grade at RB. Rosters will change 20 times before we get to the start of the season, but I would be curious as to how he came up with his grades.

 
Big fan of Clay's, but in the interest of critique and creating discussion, there is a fair amount I'd disagree with, by position:

QB=I think Stafford is being overrated a bit. 5th best QB is really pushing it. I'd have him behind Herbert/Burrow. 

I think Tannehill is being underrated. 14th best QB is an overreaction to last season, when he had nobody around him for much of the season. He was a top-5 guy each of the prior 2 seasons. I'd take him over Carr/Cousins.

RB=I think the Saints combo of Kamara/Ingram is a bit high at #6, I'd have the Zeke/Pollard and Jones/Dillon combos ahead of them.

I know they were banged up a year ago, but I'd have the Dobbins/Edwards combo higher. 20th place feels low, they are better than Akers/Henderson or Montgomery/Herbert. 

WR=I'm not saying they aren't a great unit, but I'd disagree with the Bengals having the #1 WR group. They may get there, but I'm not ready top declare that after 1 season. Personally, I have TB #1, and I'd argue the Vikings are #2. Of course, I think Jefferson is the best WR in the NFL, and Thielen has been underrated his entire career. Frankly, I'm not sure Osborn isn't one of the league's better 3's either. 

The Saints at 25th feels low with Thomas coming back. Deonte Harris (now Hardy) was a very effective slot guy, and Callaway, while overmatched as a #1, is capable as a starter. I would  take that over the Eagles(Smith and...?) or the Browns (Cooper and...?)

TE=The Patriots at #5 feels high. Both Henry and Smith are ok players, but neither are difference makers, and I know depth matters, but its tough to put 2 solid players, over a team with a much better top guy. I'd take the Falcons over them, and even using the 2 solid players idea, I'd prefer the Cardinals. 

I've mentioned in the past my love of Mo Alie-Cox, and Kylen Granson showed some ability. 26th best TE group is too low. I'd rather have this combo than what the Chargers or Packers are trotting out. 

OL=The Bengals have made some upgrades, but its not suddenly an above average OL. 13th feels high to me, I wouldn't have them ahead of NE/NO. 

The Falcons as the 25th best OL feels low. They have 3 really good starters in Matthews, Hennessy, and especially Lindstrom. I'd put them above Carolina(Bozeman/Corbett were only small upgrades) and honestly, probably the Rams too, with Whitworth and Corbett gone. 

DI: Despite their large investment in the position. I don't think Washington has a top-3 interior. Payne has mostly been a bust, and Allen, while very good, is also very inconsistent. I'd take SF/Ind ahead of them.

24th is too low for TB, even if they just had practice squad guys beside Vea, but Gholston is solid enough. I'd put them ahead of the Ravens(unless they re-sign Campbell) or the Panthers.

ED: The Saints at #2 is a but high to me. Jordan is still good, but on the decline, and Davenport is good, but boom/bust. Turner was a 1st round reach in my opinion, and showed nothing as a rookie to disprove that. I can't see them ahead of  Pittsburgh(Highsmith and Simon are solid, and Watt is elite) or LV with Crosby, FA signing Chandler Jones, and having Ferrell as depth. 

LB: Bufalo at 7th feels really high. Edmonds is a liability at times, and Milano is just ok. I'd take the Packers over them, assuming Campbell doesn't fall off a cliff, he was arguably the best LB in the NFL in 2021. Barnes is weak against the run, but does the rest well. 

Speaking of GB, I think they are very underrated. I'd put them ahead of Denver, Tennessee, and Carolina as well. 

CB: The Browns being #2 at CB is extremely high. Ward is good, but has never really lived up to being the 4th pick, Hill is a decent slot CB, who was much worse outside LA, Greedy has been a bust when not injured, and Newsome is a nice prospect, but hasn't proven much yet. I'd take Green Bay and a healthy Baltimore over that for sure. 

While their depth isn't great, any team with Jalen Ramsey, has to be better than 18th. He makes everyone around him look better, look no further than Troy Hill and John Johnson without him in Cleveland a year ago. I'd prefer Ramsey and...meh, over what SF and NE are trotting out. 

S: Buffalo at #1 feels wrong to me. Maybe McDermott is the best coach of DBs, but Hyde and Poyer are both good, but not great, especially in Poyer's case. His 1st team all-pro was very undeserved. The Bengals S's are better in my opinion with an elite player in Bates, and a solid player in Bell. I think the Titans would be my pick for #1. Byard is a stud, and Hooker has really become a very good player. 

Philly at 29th feels low. Anthony Harris is a playmaker who was elite in Minnesota, but had a down first year in Philly. He seems likely to bounce back. Marcus Epps has been ready for a bigger role, and should make for a better partner for Harris as Epps run stuffing allows Harris to stay deep, which is where he excels. I'd take them over what Detroit or the NYG have, especially if niether of them takes Kyle Hamilton. 

Overall, I think the Chargers as a top-5 team is probably pushing it, and I am not as high on Dallas at #6. Conversely, I think the Titans at #17 is just silly, and I could get on board with Denver higher than #12. But I agree with a lot more than I don't. 

 
While their depth isn't great, any team with Jalen Ramsey, has to be better than 18th. He makes everyone around him look better, look no further than Troy Hill and John Johnson without him in Cleveland a year ago.
great post, and I agree with just about all of it except Ramsey. His play fell off last year & he was pretty average in the playoffs.

He struggled mightily against the Bucs (6/11 for 104 yards and a 55 yard TD to Evans where he flat out got beat on a route.)

And again against the Bengals - he was even worse. Arguably one of the worst games. The 75 yard Higgins TD will be discussed a lot, but Ramsey also coughed up catches of 46 & 17 yards to Chase, 

We may be approaching a point where Ramsey + whatever isn’t good enough any more. 

I do agree the Niners secondary should be below the Rams, and I’m a little surprised to see their DBs get so much love considering it’s long been one of the weakest parts of the team. 

 
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great post, and I agree with just about all of it except Ramsey. His play fell off last year & he was pretty average in the playoffs.

He struggled mightily against the Bucs (6/11 for 104 yards and a 55 yard TD to Evans where he flat out got beat on a route.)

And again against the Bengals - he was even worse. Arguably one of the worst games. The 75 yard Higgins TD will be discussed a lot, but Ramsey also coughed up catches of 46 & 17 yards to Chase, 

We may be approaching a point where Ramsey + whatever isn’t good enough any more. 

I do agree the Niners secondary should be below the Rams, and I’m a little surprised to see their DBs get so much love considering it’s long been one of the weakest parts of the team. 
I would disagree 100% that Ramsey's play fell off last year. I thought he was the best CB in the NFL, and it was his best season as a Ram. He was routinely trusted with top guys 1-on-1 and when teams didn't have a standout guy, Ramsey was used as almost a box safety, where his physicality really impressed.  

I will agree that Evans certainly burned him on that one go route. But Mike Evans is a great WR, and every CB occasionally loses to a great WR. Beyond that play Ramsey held a top guy to under 50 yards on 10 targets. I would agree the Super Bowl wasn't one to go on Ramsey's highlight reel, but I'm not gonna hold 1 game against him too much.

Ramsey+ was clearly good enough last year, and people assumed it would be much worse, when John Johnson and Troy Hill left. Those guys looked a lot worse without Ramsey mostly locking down #1 guys. I'm curious how Darious Williams(who I like, as I did Johnson as well) will look in Jacksonville without Ramsey across from him. 

Am I reading this correctly? Is he ranking WAS as a top-10 team in terms of talent?
Clay has a weird thing with Washington. He's an unabashed Eagles fan, but if you judged it by how he's rated teams and players the last couple years, you'd think he was a Washington guy. He's routinely been higher on McLaurin then everybody (including when he was a lesser known rookie, so credit where its due) and was higher on Gibson/Thomas than most a year ago. 

 
travdogg said:
Clay has a weird thing with Washington. He's an unabashed Eagles fan, but if you judged it by how he's rated teams and players the last couple years, you'd think he was a Washington guy. He's routinely been higher on McLaurin then everybody (including when he was a lesser known rookie, so credit where its due) and was higher on Gibson/Thomas than most a year ago. 
Thanks for pointing that out, as I had no idea that was the case.

The formula is kind of built for WAS to standout as they are nearly perfect at both DL and EDGE, which I'm not even sure I agree with since their defense gave up way too many points last season. They played very well in 2020(although playing 6 games in that division certainly helped THAT year) but in the past three seasons they only played like top 20 defense that single year. I also don't really understand all the love for the WAS OL ranking as well. 

Overall these are nitpicks and I really enjoy the work Mike Clay does. Hopefully he takes the constructive criticism he gets from his audience as engaging with the quality content that he creates. I really do look forward to his projections each season.

 
Overall these are nitpicks and I really enjoy the work Mike Clay does. Hopefully he takes the constructive criticism he gets from his audience as engaging with the quality content that he creates. I really do look forward to his projections each season.
He is a great source, no one else does what he does.  He provides a 'snapshot' of every position on every team and updates it.  Fantastic to have that at your fingertips on one page, especially looking at the upcoming draft when trying to figure out needs of each team. 

Very valuable as a fantasy resource as well.  He puts out one huge detailed report right before the season, it is great. 

 
Wow, big UPDATE!!!

Mike Clay's 2022 NFL Projection Guide has been released.

THIS is HUGE.

---------------------------------------

LINK to Mike Clay's 2022 NFL Projection Guide

Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL

The 2022 NFL #ClayProjections PDF is here!

  • -32 Team Pages
  • -Positional leaderboards
  • -Category leaderboards
  • -Unit Grades -Depth Charts
  • -Strength of Schedule
  • -Final '22 standings
  • -2023 Draft Order
  • -Coach & Playcallers
 
Did @travdogg really say Justin Herbert is ahead of Stafford after the Rams traded 2-1st Rd picks and he just won the Super Bowl? 

You are entitled to your feelings, I'm not going to stop you, maybe you're totally right but I value things like Playoff experience and big game situations, Stafford has forged ahead since joining Los Angeles IMHO and that was just Year One of the Kupp-Staff connection with more help on the way as ARob joins the stable of weapons there. 

-Of course Herbert has a rocket arm and if we're talking Dynasty and 2-3-4 years down the road but in the NFL moment we are in right now I'd prefer the one with all the experience. 

You got the discussion going, now I have to go back and read the rest of your work. 

 
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Thanks for pointing that out, as I had no idea that was the case.

The formula is kind of built for WAS to standout as they are nearly perfect at both DL and EDGE, which I'm not even sure I agree with since their defense gave up way too many points last season. They played very well in 2020(although playing 6 games in that division certainly helped THAT year) but in the past three seasons they only played like top 20 defense that single year. I also don't really understand all the love for the WAS OL ranking as well. 

Overall these are nitpicks and I really enjoy the work Mike Clay does. Hopefully he takes the constructive criticism he gets from his audience as engaging with the quality content that he creates. I really do look forward to his projections each season.
They might have been missing one big key on their Defense for almost the entire season as I recall...

 
Did @travdogg really say Justin Herbert is ahead of Stafford after the Rams traded 2-1st Rd picks and he just won the Super Bowl? 

You are entitled to your feelings, I'm not going to stop you, maybe you're totally right but I value things like Playoff experience and big game situations, Stafford has forged ahead since joining Los Angeles IMHO and that was just Year One of the Kupp-Staff connection with more help on the way as ARob joins the stable of weapons there. 

-Of course Herbert has a rocket arm and if we're talking Dynasty and 2-3-4 years down the road but in the NFL moment we are in right now I'd prefer the one with all the experience. 

You got the discussion going, now I have to go back and read the rest of your work. 
Yes, I think Herbert is better than Stafford. I think the narrative that the Rams traded 2 1sts for Stafford and won a Super Bowl, while technically accurate, really undervalues a ton of other factors.

Jared Goff got that team to the Super Bowl, and even the season before, the divisional round of the playoffs, its not like Stafford was taking over some mediocre or poor team. They were the #1 defense in the NFL in 2020, and while the 2021 defense had some hiccups, they really stepped up when it mattered most (not coincidently after acquiring Von Miller) holding 3 of their 4 playoff opponents to 20 or fewer points, and even then the team that topped 20, only did so because the Rams offense turned it over 4 times, including twice inside their own 30, which directly led to 2 TDs. 

Sean McVay is a genius play caller, who gets the most out of basically every player he has. Brandon Staley seemed in over his head for much of last year. Not that he won't get better, but especially for a defensive guy, he sure didn't seem to help them very much. Stafford had a better supporting cast, particularly on the OL (will be interesting to see how huge a loss Whitworth is, but I'd guess losing him will affect the offense more than gaining Robinson does) and on defense. Herbert has been saddled with a bottom 5 defense, though that shouldn't continue to be the case with the additions of Mack/Jackson. 

Maybe I'm in the minority, but Stafford winning a Super Bowl, doesn't really matter to me. I don't think Super Bowls are won because of 1 guy. Stafford isn't a better player than he was a couple years ago, he's the same guy. A very good, but not elite starter, he just went from being surrounded by a bad team with bad coaching, to a great team with great coaching. 

I think playoff experience is one of those things that gets brought up a lot, but I'm not sure actually matters. I do think there is truth to some guys crack under too much pressure, but I also think plenty of guys with no playoff experience outperform plenty of guys who do have some. Look no further than Joe Burrow this past season, running the table in the AFC in his first playoff berth. Or Mahomes in 2018-2019. Or even a guy like Nick Foles in 2017, turning into the best player in the NFL for 2 weeks.

Even Stafford's prior playoff experience was: A shootout loss against the 2011 Saints(where Stafford played well, and the defense did him no favors) A close loss to the 2014 Cowboys (in which Stafford played a good 1st half, and fell apart in the 2nd, including losing the game via strip sack) and a definitive loss to the 2016 Seahawks( where Stafford was pretty bad, and the Lions had basically no offense) I don't think those games had any effect on how Stafford played in the 2021 playoffs, where he played better than he did in all but the 2011 Saints game. 

I think Matthew Stafford is a very good QB, we have ample evidence to prove that, just as we have ample evidence to prove he's not an elite QB. I think Justin Herbert is an elite QB, though we do only have a small sample size. All things being equal, if I needed a QB for 1 game, I'd take Herbert. 

 
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Yes, I think Herbert is better than Stafford. I think the narrative that the Rams traded 2 1sts for Stafford and won a Super Bowl, while technically accurate, really undervalues a ton of other factors.

Jared Goff got that team to the Super Bowl, and even the season before, the divisional round of the playoffs, its not like Stafford was taking over some mediocre or poor team. They were the #1 defense in the NFL in 2020, and while the 2021 defense had some hiccups, they really stepped up when it mattered most (not coincidently after acquiring Von Miller) holding 3 of their 4 playoff opponents to 20 or fewer points, and even then the team that topped 20, only did so because the Rams offense turned it over 4 times, including twice inside their own 30, which directly led to 2 TDs. 

Sean McVay is a genius play caller, who gets the most out of basically every player he has. Brandon Staley seemed in over his head for much of last year. Not that he won't get better, but especially for a defensive guy, he sure didn't seem to help them very much. Stafford had a better supporting cast, particularly on the OL (will be interesting to see how huge a loss Whitworth is, but I'd guess losing him will affect the offense more than gaining Robinson does) and on defense. Herbert has been saddled with a bottom 5 defense, though that shouldn't continue to be the case with the additions of Mack/Jackson. 

Maybe I'm in the minority, but Stafford winning a Super Bowl, doesn't really matter to me. I don't think Super Bowls are won because of 1 guy. Stafford isn't a better player than he was a couple years ago, he's the same guy. A very good, but not elite starter, he just went from being surrounded by a bad team with bad coaching, to a great team with great coaching. 

I think playoff experience is one of those things that gets brought up a lot, but I'm not sure actually matters. I do think there is truth to some guys crack under too much pressure, but I also think plenty of guys with no playoff experience outperform plenty of guys who do have some. Look no further than Joe Burrow this past season, running the table in the AFC in his first playoff berth. Or Mahomes in 2018-2019. Or even a guy like Nick Foles in 2017, turning into the best player in the NFL for 2 weeks.

Even Stafford's prior playoff experience was: A shootout loss against the 2011 Saints(where Stafford played well, and the defense did him no favors) A close loss to the 2014 Cowboys (in which Stafford played a good 1st half, and fell apart in the 2nd, including losing the game via strip sack) and a definitive loss to the 2016 Seahawks( where Stafford was pretty bad, and the Lions had basically no offense) I don't think those games had any effect on how Stafford played in the 2021 playoffs, where he played better than he did in all but the 2011 Saints game. 

I think Matthew Stafford is a very good QB, we have ample evidence to prove that, just as we have ample evidence to prove he's not an elite QB. I think Justin Herbert is an elite QB, though we do only have a small sample size. All things being equal, if I needed a QB for 1 game, I'd take Herbert. 
Herbert on the Rams ATM would be crazy unstoppable. End of Argument.

 
They might have been missing one big key on their Defense for almost the entire season as I recall...
Well, if they had a 3.8 rating for DL and a 3.8 for EDGE based on "one big key" player then that system done broke anyway imo.

Also, if they spend 4 or 5 1st rounders on one position and one injury makes the entire unit collapse then..... well, let's just suffice it to say I don't think they are a top 10 team in the NFL. There are WAS fans bent out of shape over the fact they couldn't afford to keep Ioannidis around as the #6 DLman on the team. 

 
Dacomish said:
Looks like it was just updated as of today!! Great stuff...

https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/22/NFLDK2022_CS_ClayProjections2022.pdf


Thanks...great read...a few things that are interesting:

*He sees both Ridder and Corral getting a decent amount of time

*Jerry Jeudy appears to be the winner of Wilson coming onboard

*Both Rodgers and Mahomes with healthy TD #'s

*Pierce with the Colts has solid #'s

*The usage for Mostert and Edmonds is interesting

*Does not think Robinson does anything to Gibson's #'s

 
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Predicting a slight decline in Eagles rushing yards even though they ran more/better as the season went on
This makes perfect sense. You don't trade for AJ Brown and pay him what they did, without making passing a bigger priority.

They could always fall back on the more run heavy offense as it doesn't work, but seeing if Hurts can be the guy is seemingly priority #1.

*Both Rodgers and Mahomes with healthy TD #'s
Mahomes makes sense, I think you could argue his supporting cast overall is better than it was a year ago, even if no one player is able to replace Hill. 

Rodgers on the other hand feels less likely, especially as they may have the best defense in the NFL with Alexander back.

 
Interesting predictions on Deebo. If he sees those rushing numbers, he's arguably #1 the overall pick in my opinion.

 
This makes perfect sense. You don't trade for AJ Brown and pay him what they did, without making passing a bigger priority.


If Hurts disappoints or if AJ gets injured(like he always does) he is going to disappoint.  Hard pass.

 
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Interesting predictions on Deebo. If he sees those rushing numbers, he's arguably #1 the overall pick in my opinion.


The news is already out that Deebo doesn't want to be used like that again...not sure what Clay is thinking here.

 
Rodgers on the other hand feels less likely, especially as they may have the best defense in the NFL with Alexander back.


The demise of Rodgers is being overstated in some circles.   Losing Davante isn't the impact for a QB like Rodgers that some may believe.

 

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