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It's All About Spa-Mar (DelaToga?) 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)


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Baffert's never lost a Preakness when he has the Derby winner (with an asterisk for last year).  Wonder if he can keep that record intact without pharmaceutical help.

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Posted (edited)

I just heard the Medina Spirit was spotted at the track.  He looked smaller and a little less muscular.

hmmmm!

Edited by Chaz McNulty
edit to add - On a happier note, the horses acne seems to be clearing up.
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3 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

ironically enough, it's his other horse, Concert Tour, that can best get out and put MS in the dust. 

dunno if Midnight Bourbon is gonna wanna suicide out that first 1/2, but he'll definitely be on their asses. 

this sets up as a perfect scenario for Keepmeinmind. 

 

18/1 and 20/1 online.

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Posted (edited)

first hit to Bob's Bottom Line

it ain't exactly gonna send him to the soup kitchen, but ...

more than anything else, this will be the proper punishment(s) - he will not be sanctioned too severely if the MS split does, indeed, show up positive ... does anyone really think Cali is gonna drop a hammer on this dude?  the industry is on life support out there - ergo, it's gonna have to come from ownership groups like this to rightfully adjudicate forthwith ... that will be the biggest tell going forward - a way for the players to police themselves, which has never really yielded much consequence, either ... but this is a start. 

14 hours ago, Judge Smails said:

Medina Spirit #3, 9-5

i've taken a cursory glance at the new shooters ... nothing too flashy to get excited about - would not be surprised to see MS go off in the 4/5 range - lest a ton ignore him under the impression that he'll falter without his "MAGIC OATS!" 

think Concert Tour will drift up a bit - but, man ... that Arky was brutal - the hope here is that it runs back to the Rebel, which was dominated on the engine  - with no Caddooo here to vex the field, he has to be the controlling speed, especially with having to hustle out that 10 hole ... i just can't see allowing him to fold in behind MS and his cushy draw - CT bombed playing the rating game last out, allowing the tomato-cannish Super Stock to steal 100 pts & a Derby gate. 

12 hours ago, facook said:

18/1 and 20/1 online.

yep, i'll be playing him (Keepmeinmind) from every angle imaginable - will be better pace setup than the Derby, less traffic to deal with ... front speed bias was holding on the Churchill track that day  - i'm backing this one for sure. 

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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8 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

I drew the 7th spot in terms of choosing horses in a 10 person pool. All the chalks should be gone, besides the #2 are there any other longshots who stand a fighters chance? Something tells me the #2 will be gone by the time I get to pick. 😞

Rombo would be the luckiest possible drop. failing that, i'd have to take the Japanese horse simply because this is a bad crop with the best here all having the same running style

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1 hour ago, wikkidpissah said:

Rombo would be the luckiest possible drop. failing that, i'd have to take the Japanese horse simply because this is a bad crop with the best here all having the same running style

... and the 2 horses who will likely dictate the pace are coming out the same barn - would love to see Midnight Bourbon sent to rattle the Baffert master plan, because you know he's not gonna have Smiffy & Johnny V go any faster than they need to, in terms of running 1-2 for as long as they can. 

best hope for #2 & #7 is seeing MB dart out that 5 hole, and asking the BB's to come get him. 

wither Caddooo?

😡

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1 hour ago, Leroy Hoard said:

I drew the 7th spot in terms of choosing horses in a 10 person pool. All the chalks should be gone, besides the #2 are there any other longshots who stand a fighters chance? Something tells me the #2 will be gone by the time I get to pick. 😞

So far I got a list including the 6-2-7. One of them has to still be there, thanks for the longies guys.

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39 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

Have the PP’s. Don’t think it’s a good betting race at all but will throw thoughts out there. Maybe some of you have a better read than I do 

these 5:

MS & CT to hold most of the way, with the possibility of Irad gunning out over them on Midnight Bourbon. 

those 3 will be the class speed, and if MB melts one of them, i think it will be CT.

i'll use Keepmeinmind for a nice close into the money - and i'll toss Crowded Trade in there because Brown has him mirroring the exact same path (including last 2 finishes) as Cloud Computing, who he won this race with just 4 years ago. 

so, i am leaning more towards keying Midnight Bourbon with those other 4 ... track bias on Saturday will tilt the ticket to either MB or KMiM. 

 

 

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I'll give it a go..

1 - RAM - no idea why he is in this race.  Took 8 races to break his maiden and had to go down to 50K claimers to do it. Then won weak allowance in slow time.  Pass

2 - Keep me in mind - I dunno.  Had races as a 2 year old that would get him in contention but his Rebel and Blue Grass efforts were hideous.  Did run a little faster when wide in the Derby.  Pretty good middle move but then flattened.  Never got closer than 6 1/2 lengths and mainly toiled 9-13 lengths back.  Not the kind of horse I usually get excited about.  6% trainer in graded stakes.

3 - Medina Spirit - say what you will but the Derby field he just beat was 10X tougher than this.  Not even close.  Rightful favorite by default.  I guess he could bounce but Baffert horses who win the Derby win the Preakness.  I don't think the medication had anything to do with this win.  Should be a bigger favorite though he doesn't win by big margins

4 - Crowded Trade - I don't like it when a trainer openly questions whether a horse can get the distance.  Brown said he hung in his last race pretty badly.  Did go 7 wide though.  Maybe with perfect trip he makes a move at Medina Spirit but doubtful it continues.   Did beat Highly Motivated in the Gotham so some ability

5) Midnight Bourbon - Huge threat with the move to Ortiz.  I just don't think Mike Smith is riding well and it sure was an iffy ride in the Derby.  Should be in the top flight with Medina Spirit and Concert Tour.  One horse player I respect said this horse cannot pass another horse.  So if he locks up with Medina Spirit he might just follow him to the wire.

6) Rombauer - Right now my bomber to possibly hit the exotics.  His races are a bit slower, and he has to ship to the East Coast.  But he runs solid every other race and this is the time for a good one. Got beat by 5 lengths in the Blue Grass to Essential Quality and Highly Motivated and neither one of them are here.  And that was after getting bumped and in tight at the start.  Ran respectable to EQ and HRC in the Juvenile. Prat will have this horse in a good position.

7) France Go De Ina - one of the reasons I don't like the race.  Rosario rides back after bad UAE race so who knows.  Saw a work and good looking horse. Jockey fell off latest work.  Total wildcard.  95% of the time these shippers don't run so I'll bet against but wouldn't be surprised if he ran

8 - Unbridled Honor - Don't love him.  Flattened in his last.  But Pletcher, and interesting jockey switch to Saez when Leparoux had been riding him well.  I love Saez on horses with speed.  Could Pletcher be trying to send this horse? 

9) Risk Taking - Chad Brown. At least he closed at 1 1/8 in the Withers.  Can close.  Never been out of NY, never ran fast.  But he could be improving and be a Cloud Computing type

10) Concert Tour - The ultimate wild card. Million dollar question is did Baffert take Rosario off or did Rosario choose the Japanese horse.  Don't love Smith these days as I said. But Baffert's barn like the way he was working and any of the 3 previous races before the Arkansas Derby dud would make him the favorite. No explanation for that dud though.  

Based on recent form and speed figures this looks chalky. Medina Spirit, Midnight Bourbon and Concert Tour.  Your betting that one or more of them doesn't fire as they are faster than the rest.  They should control the pace.  Concert Tour will need to break well from the outside and could be wide the whole way.  I'll play this lightly with these 3 and some Rombauer and Risk Taking mixed in. 

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Judge Smails said:

I'll give it a go..

2 - Keep me in mind - I dunno.  Had races as a 2 year old that would get him in contention but his Rebel and Blue Grass efforts were hideous.  Did run a little faster when wide in the Derby.  Pretty good middle move but then flattened.  Never got closer than 6 1/2 lengths and mainly toiled 9-13 lengths back.  Not the kind of horse I usually get excited about.  6% trainer in graded stakes.

he has run sideways as a 3 yr old ... mixed in with some top class, but really hasn't taken the leap forward his 2 yr old form portended - i'm firing one last bullet with him in all tix here, though - trainer says he's never looked stronger.  will need a hotter pace than 2 weeks ago, but that may be difficult if the 2 Bafferts have their way.  

 

5) Midnight Bourbon - Huge threat with the move to Ortiz.  I just don't think Mike Smith is riding well and it sure was an iffy ride in the Derby.  Should be in the top flight with Medina Spirit and Concert Tour.  One horse player I respect said this horse cannot pass another horse.  So if he locks up with Medina Spirit he might just follow him to the wire.

looking back at his Lecomte win, it was pretty much identical to MS in the Derby ... didn't necessarily want the lead, but it was bequeathed, and he ran with it - very modest fractions, though - he was able to ration on the engine, and turned back both Proxy (who was serious Derby fodder coming in), and Mandaloun. that Fairgrounds crop were undoubtedly the cream of the regional groups, and i gotta take a stab with him as best bet to upend Baffert ... i keep going back to the Apple Blossom, where Irad gunned Letruska out over both Swiss Skydiver and Monomoy Girl, then held on to upset those two superior horses. biggest hope is that Asmussen instructs him to do likewise here - as you pointed out he doesn't pass horses ... but neither do MS or CT - we got 3 legit front-running/need the leads.   

10) Concert Tour - The ultimate wild card. Million dollar question is did Baffert take Rosario off or did Rosario choose the Japanese horse.  Don't love Smith these days as I said. But Baffert's barn like the way he was working and any of the 3 previous races before the Arkansas Derby dud would make him the favorite. No explanation for that dud though.

getting very close to an outright toss for me with this one - only path is the hustle out the 10, while his 2 main foes are set up for easier paths to front running glory ... nothing i've seen outta this cat shows me any reason to bank on resiliency - his rating in the Arky was atrocious, seeing as how he grabbed the lead from Caddooo, but then ceded to Super Stock, only to get outkicked for place by a horse (Caddooo) he had just seemingly buried. 

 

my thoughts on three of these in bolded

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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3 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

my thoughts on three of these in bolded

 

Good stuff.  I just don't know why Baffert would run Concert Tour unless he was doing really well.  Or, could he be insurance in case MS is forced to scratch? If not CT scratches?

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1 hour ago, Judge Smails said:

Good stuff.  I just don't know why Baffert would run Concert Tour unless he was doing really well.  Or, could he be insurance in case MS is forced to scratch? If not CT scratches?

as much as i lean to toss him, the ticket will be economical enough to not exclude him, getting bit in the ### again by neglecting a primed BB entry is not gonna sit well. as i said, i'm inching closer to an outright toss, if i pull the trigger it will be made at the window. 

- but i will be keying MB in the final analysis - ton of faith in Irad amongst this field, might be the ooomph! Asmussen needs to take the ballsy approach of getting out in front, lest he merry go rounds like he did behind Chuck in the La. Derby ... in which case he'll board, but the spoils will be meager if it's the two favorites with him. 

as far as MS scratch ... that's something i had not considered - in that scenario i could easily see MB putting the wood to CT from jump - his break from the 5 will surely fold to the rail if he wants it - dunno how Lukas is gonna handle Ram's strategy, but this ain't Oxbow, and it ain't gonna be raining ... don't think he'll pose much of a worry early on, but who knows. 

i don't think we'll hear anything about MS 'til he's effectively eliminated from the TC - cannot see them DQ'ng from the Derby win on the eve of the Preakness - would be suicidal to the event. 

 

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1 hour ago, otb_lifer said:

as much as i lean to toss him, the ticket will be economical enough to not exclude him, getting bit in the ### again by neglecting a primed BB entry is not gonna sit well. as i said, i'm inching closer to an outright toss, if i pull the trigger it will be made at the window. 

- but i will be keying MB in the final analysis - ton of faith in Irad amongst this field, might be the ooomph! Asmussen needs to take the ballsy approach of getting out in front, lest he merry go rounds like he did behind Chuck in the La. Derby ... in which case he'll board, but the spoils will be meager if it's the two favorites with him. 

as far as MS scratch ... that's something i had not considered - in that scenario i could easily see MB putting the wood to CT from jump - his break from the 5 will surely fold to the rail if he wants it - dunno how Lukas is gonna handle Ram's strategy, but this ain't Oxbow, and it ain't gonna be raining ... don't think he'll pose much of a worry early on, but who knows. 

i don't think we'll hear anything about MS 'til he's effectively eliminated from the TC - cannot see them DQ'ng from the Derby win on the eve of the Preakness - would be suicidal to the event. 

 

Exactly, BB's penance should be to at least show up with the two favorites. Whether they do well or not is a different story.

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28 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Exactly, BB's penance should be to at least show up with the two favorites. Whether they do well or not is a different story.

the 2 favorites may show up, but  ol' Silver Bullet Bob is probably not gonna ship himself - he's likely to sit this one out. 

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

 

subscriber wall for me 😒

 

Dancer’s Image, drugs and MLK: The enduring mystery of the 1968 Kentucky Derby

by Rick Maese

May 3, 2018 at 10:35 a.m. EDT 

A race that’s supposed to last barely two minutes instead dragged out nearly five years before a victor was definitively crowned. In the 144-year history of the event, the 1968 race stands as the Derby’s lone drug scandal and the only time a winning horse was disqualified.

“Fifty years is a long time, but still today questions abound,” says Abby Fuller, whose father owned Dancer’s Image, the horse who was first across the line at the 1968 Derby and listed last in the official race records.

While Dancer’s Image was feted at the track, a bad drug test led to his disqualification and several years of legal wrangling. For many of the principals, the ensuing courtroom drama failed to produce answers, and the horse’s connections never understood how Dancer’s Image could fail a drug test. Was the testing bad? Had a medication that was authorized for training somehow not cleared his system? Or was it something more nefarious?

Peter Fuller, the horse’s owner, had a theory that many find just as credible a half-century later. In the weeks before the race, he had shown support for the widow of recently assassinated Martin Luther King Jr., which drew the ire of many during a tumultuous period in which racial tensions divided communities across the country. Did the charitable act by a New England horse owner inspire someone to sabotage Dancer’s Image in the days before the Kentucky Derby?

“I have no doubt,” his daughter says today.

In Louisville this weekend, 20 of the world’s best 3-year-old thoroughbreds will line up for a race that loves its history and usually celebrates its past. But don’t expect any remembrances of Dancer’s Image. Fifty years later, he’s the Derby’s forgotten, fallen champion.

“What we do know,” says Milton Toby, author of the book “Dancer’s Image: The Forgotten Story of the 1968 Kentucky Derby,” “is that on that day, he ran faster than any other horse in the Derby.”

Peter Fuller was so confident in his horse that he practiced the walk from his box at Churchill Downs to the winner’s circle ahead of time. Bettors had made Dancer’s Image the Derby’s second choice, at 7-2 odds. He had the pedigree (son of Native Dancer), the résumé (12 career wins — three more than any other Derby horse) 

But Dancer’s Image also had ankle issues that cast doubt in the days leading into the race, and his handlers were being cautious.

“They maintained in the face of persistent rumors this week to the contrary that the colt would be fit and ready at post time,” The Post reported at the time.

Dancer’s Image received medication early in the week, and he completed his training runs. Then on race day, he got a bad break out of the gate. The horse was bumped and quickly fell 15 lengths off the lead.

But he slowly started moving through the field, weaving past the others. At the top of the stretch, Ussery slid the horse to the inside and passed the favorite, Forward Pass, at the eighth pole.

“I was too small to see it all with my own eyes,” says Abby Fuller, who was 9 at 

but I remember looking at the people around me — Mom, Dad, aunts and uncles — screaming and yelling. Dad saying, ‘Here he comes! Here he comes!’ ”

Dancer’s Image somehow went from last to first — just the fifth Derby winner at the time to do so. The horse was draped with a garland of roses, Fuller was handed a trophy, and everyone connected with the horse was still celebrating the next night when track officials got word that something was amiss.

Warner Jones, a longtime board member at Churchill Downs, called Fuller, according to a Los Angeles Times report, and said, “They’ve got a problem with your horse’s test.”

“What are you talking about?” Fuller responded.

“It’s very serious.”

Dancer’s Image had tested positive for a drug called phenylbutazone. At the time, the drug was legal to use in training but couldn’t be in a horse’s system on race day. Churchill Downs officials had no idea what to do.

“There’d never been a horse disqualified for a drug positive before then and never since. So nobody knew quite how to deal with that,” said Toby, a Kentucky author and lawyer.

They held a staff meeting to sort through their options. Kelso Sturgeon, the track’s public relations director at the time, once recalled to the Los Angeles Times that several officials argued against making public news of the positive drug test.

“They wanted to sweep it under the rug,” he said. “I started to tell [Wathen Knebelkamp, the president of Churchill Downs] that we couldn’t do that, that too many people already knew, when he cut me off.”

They made the unprecedented decision to declare the second-place horse, Forward Pass, the Derby winner. Dancer’s Image had gone from last to first on race day and was demoted back to last three days later.

Billy Reed was a sportswriter working at the Louisville Courier-Journal at the time and had just covered his first Derby. When the track’s decision leaked on a Tuesday afternoon, “it was absolute chaos in the office,” he said. “Nobody knew much about post-race urinalysis, all the procedures, what the chemist did. Everybody was caught completely off-guard. It was that way across the nation: Everybody was stunned.”

Fifty years ago, only the race’s winner and one random horse had to submit to a urine test. Trace amounts of phenylbutazone, commonly known as bute around the track, were found in Dancer’s Image’s sample. Bute is an anti-inflammatory used to alleviate pain, not a performance-enhancing drug.

“Bute’s not a stimulant or a depressant,” said Reed, the veteran turf writer. “It was more like an aspirin that humans take. To this day, probably over 90 percent of the race horses in the country use bute, sometimes only as a precaution.”

At the time, the drug was legal at many tracks but permitted only during training at Churchill Downs. Alex Harthill, the well-known equine veterinarian, gave Dancer’s Image a dose six days before the race to help his ankles, and it should have cleared within 72 hours. Dancer’s Image, everyone thought, had nothing in his system on race day. 

Seemingly no explanation made sense to Fuller and his connections — except maybe one.

Martin Luther King Jr. was killed in Memphis on April 4, 1968. Two days later, Fuller entered Dancer’s Image in the Governor’s Gold Cup race in Bowie, outside Washington, and won. Fuller quietly sent the race purse — more than $75,000 — to King’s widow, Coretta Scott King.

“It was just my way of saying, ‘Hell, this was a hell of a guy,’ ” Fuller once explained to the Boston Herald.

He didn’t publicize the gesture, and there were no splashy headlines. But the broadcaster Win Elliot caught wind of the donation and told the story on-air during the Wood Memorial.

The news wasn’t universally celebrated across the horse racing world and certainly not across all of Kentucky. During race week the previous year, King drew attention away from the Derby by demonstrating against housing discrimination in Louisville and staging a rally downtown. “I know that that hadn’t endeared him to the big shots back there,” Fuller later explained to the Los Angeles Times.

To many, Fuller was an outsider, a horse owner from New England who was making his first trip to Churchill Downs. He was a Harvard-educated, Boston auto dealer who was also the son of a former Massachusetts governor.

In the weeks leading into the Kentucky Derby, Fuller and his family received angry letters and death threats. His horse was derided around town with a racial slur, according to some reports, and back in New England, one of his stables was set on fire.

“We had this beautiful little barn across from our house in New Hampshire, and they burned it to a crisp,” Abby Fuller said.

According to Toby, Fuller reached out to Jones, the chairman of Churchill Downs at the time, to request additional security for his horse.

“Jones told Fuller that it wouldn’t be necessary because the track had ‘great security,’ ” Toby said. In actuality, the author said, “security was very lax. It would’ve been easy for almost anyone to get to the horse, if they wanted to.”

Fuller once described the track guard stationed at Dancer’s Image’s barn to the Associated Press as “an old fella sitting in a chair and asleep.” And so if someone was really that upset with the horse owner’s support of King’s widow, Fuller later theorized, why wouldn’t they come after his horse?

“I’ve always wondered if what happened to the horse could have come in retaliation for my support of King,” Fuller told the Los Angeles Times.

Fuller had been an amateur boxer and wrestler back in college, so he had little interest in backing away from a fight. He took the Kentucky State Racing Commission to court, eager to restore the Derby win and his horse’s reputation.

Dancer’s Image won the first round when a Kentucky county judge said the commission’s disqualification was based on evidence “lacking in substance.” But they’d lose the ensuing appeals. Fuller’s legal fees ballooned and soon topped the Derby’s $122,000 prize money. In April 1973, Fuller threw in the towel. The 1968 Kentucky Derby was finally over, nearly five years after it began.

Less than a year later, Kentucky’s racing commission agreed to legalize phenylbutazone.

Dancer’s Image ran just once more, finishing third at the Preakness, which was won by Forward Pass. But he was quickly disqualified for bumping another horse and dropped to eighth. Fuller retired his horse shortly after. Dancer’s Image was eventually sold and enjoyed a long stud career overseas before dying in 1992.

Fuller was 89 when he died in 2012. He remained in the horse business for years but never had another Kentucky Derby contender. The controversy always ate at him.

“For him, it was always still there,” his daughter said. “He could never just let it go, I guess, because he never understood what exactly happened. We just never knew the full story.”

More than 150,000 people will attend this year’s Kentucky Derby, many filing right past the Kentucky Derby Museum on the Churchill grounds. The museum features a giant timeline that lists Forward Pass as the 1968 winner. The race results list Dancer’s Image first with an asterisk noting he was disqualified. There are no artifacts related to that race on display.

Fifty years later, the first horse across the finish line is the last one many want to remember.

“That’s by design,” said Reed, the veteran Louisville sportswriter. “Obviously that was an embarrassment to Churchill Downs, to the Kentucky racing industry. Nobody wants to talk about it. I’m not surprised they’re not doing anything official to honor his memory because I think they’ve always wished it’d just go away.

“To me, Dancer’s Image will always be the winner of that Kentucky Derby. I thought he was the best horse on the track that day. All the stuff that happened later was just a complete comedy opera of sorts.”

Edited by Leroy Hoard
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31 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Just to be clear, I am also not a subscriber, so that was a free article I copied with full credit in the previous post 

Leroy, can you please link to the pp page like you did for the Derby?

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This is how horse racing nation has them.  They like OTB Lifer's horse...

1. Concert Tour (#10, 5-2): He is the only horse in this field who has shown the raw talent to compete with his stablemate. His Rebel (G2) victory was visually impressive, and his connections learned how he needs to be ridden after his Arkansas Derby disappointment. This fresh colt will wing it on the front and will take running down.

2. Keepmeinmind (#2, 15-1): This colt ran an underrated race in the Derby after breaking slowly and going very wide turning for home. Not many horses were closing well as many of the Derby front-runners were in the thick of it throughout. He was among the best in the division as a 2-year-old and after going off form prior to the Derby, he looks to have snapped back to his best after removing the blinkers. He will get plenty of pace to run into in the Preakness.

3. Medina Spirit (#3, 9-5): There is no doubting the strong credentials and consistency of the Derby winner, but he will concede the lead to Concert Tour and will be forced to chase his hot early pace in this spot. He will likely show his usual grit but could come up a bit short as the center of attention on Saturday.

4. Midnight Bourbon (#5, 5-1): This consistent colt ran admirably in the Derby after finding himself farther off the pace than usual. The race flow will work against him in here, but he always shows up with a commendable effort.

5. Crowded Trade (#4, 10-1): Speed Figure players will gravitate toward this runner as his 104 career high Brisnet Ranking is the best in the field. He will receive a good pace setup, but it is hard to trust a runner coming out of the woefully slow New York 3-year-old circuit.

6. Rombauer (#6, 12-1): Michael McCarthy's colt has been keeping good company, but he has yet to be truly competitive while facing the elite from his crop. He is likely to give an honest performance but does not appear fast enough to gain a slice.

7. Ram (#1, 30-1): D. Wayne Lukas knows how to get a colt ready for the Preakness, and this improving son of American Pharoah looked good defeating older last time out. He still would have to take a giant step forward to compete at this class level, however.

8. Risk Taking (#9, 15-1): Chad Brown's colt looked like he was figuring things out with blinkers prior to an awful showing in the weak Wood Memorial. He is hard to endorse off such a poor effort and is yet to crack the 90 range on the Beyer Speed Figure scale.

9. France Go de Ina (#7, 20-1): He may be a useful colt, but this is a big step up in class and he has proven to be at his best near the lead. He will face plenty of pace pressure and will be hard pressed to hang around late.

10. Unbridled Honor (#8, 15-1): He was helped by a perfect race flow in the Lexington (G3) but still could not win when earning a high figure in the slop. Prior to that effort he was a distant 4th in a weak edition of the Tampa Bay Derby (G2).

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, leftcoastguy7 said:

Any chance KeepMeInMind gets a good start inside of Medina Spirit...

and then just hangs with him stride for stride for the distance?

not gonna happen. 

just not his style - now, i can see him perhaps being more forawardly placed, knowing that Baffert has a stranglehold on the pace, which may cause honest (not hot) fractions, much like the Derby.

he has run best when nicely off the pace ... again, hope is that MB puts the pressure on the BB's early - that would set this cat up for a very nice closing challenge. 

but he's not getting out with the leaders - though i do not see him dropping back to dead last this time, either - think they will move him up just a bit for this one, much like O Besos at Churchill. 

 

Edited by otb_lifer
SpElLiNk
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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Judge Smails said:

This is how horse racing nation has them.  They like OTB Lifer's horse...

1. Concert Tour (#10, 5-2): He is the only horse in this field who has shown the raw talent to compete with his stablemate. His Rebel (G2) victory was visually impressive, and his connections learned how he needs to be ridden after his Arkansas Derby disappointment. This fresh colt will wing it on the front and will take running down.

2. Keepmeinmind (#2, 15-1): This colt ran an underrated race in the Derby after breaking slowly and going very wide turning for home. Not many horses were closing well as many of the Derby front-runners were in the thick of it throughout. He was among the best in the division as a 2-year-old and after going off form prior to the Derby, he looks to have snapped back to his best after removing the blinkers. He will get plenty of pace to run into in the Preakness.

3. Medina Spirit (#3, 9-5): There is no doubting the strong credentials and consistency of the Derby winner, but he will concede the lead to Concert Tour and will be forced to chase his hot early pace in this spot. He will likely show his usual grit but could come up a bit short as the center of attention on Saturday.

4. Midnight Bourbon (#5, 5-1): This consistent colt ran admirably in the Derby after finding himself farther off the pace than usual. The race flow will work against him in here, but he always shows up with a commendable effort.

5. Crowded Trade (#4, 10-1): Speed Figure players will gravitate toward this runner as his 104 career high Brisnet Ranking is the best in the field. He will receive a good pace setup, but it is hard to trust a runner coming out of the woefully slow New York 3-year-old circuit.

6. Rombauer (#6, 12-1): Michael McCarthy's colt has been keeping good company, but he has yet to be truly competitive while facing the elite from his crop. He is likely to give an honest performance but does not appear fast enough to gain a slice.

7. Ram (#1, 30-1): D. Wayne Lukas knows how to get a colt ready for the Preakness, and this improving son of American Pharoah looked good defeating older last time out. He still would have to take a giant step forward to compete at this class level, however.

8. Risk Taking (#9, 15-1): Chad Brown's colt looked like he was figuring things out with blinkers prior to an awful showing in the weak Wood Memorial. He is hard to endorse off such a poor effort and is yet to crack the 90 range on the Beyer Speed Figure scale.

9. France Go de Ina (#7, 20-1): He may be a useful colt, but this is a big step up in class and he has proven to be at his best near the lead. He will face plenty of pace pressure and will be hard pressed to hang around late.

10. Unbridled Honor (#8, 15-1): He was helped by a perfect race flow in the Lexington (G3) but still could not win when earning a high figure in the slop. Prior to that effort he was a distant 4th in a weak edition of the Tampa Bay Derby (G2).

... i'll toss this in, from Shifman - no love for Keepmeinmind here:


1. Ram (30-1 – American Pharoah – D. Wayne Lukas / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 4: 1-1-1 - $107,380) His Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas loves running in the Preakness, a race he has won five times, most recently in 2013 with Oxbow. Ram won his last two starts: a $50,000 maiden claiming score at Oaklawn Park and then an allowance victory at Churchill Downs going a one-turn mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard. This will be his first try in a stakes race. Toss.

2. Keepmeinmind (15-1 – Laoban – Robertino Diodoro / David Cohen – 7: 1-2-1 - $424,987) This colt's 3-year-old season has been a stark contrast to his juvenile campaign. Last year, he was in contention in all four starts including a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). This year in three races, Keepmeinmind has not been a threat to win or even hit the board. In the Derby, he was last early, made up some ground, and then passed tired horses without really gaining ground on the top three. Toss.

3. Medina Spirit (9-5 – Protonico – Bob Baffert / John Velazquez – 6: 3-3-0 - $2,175,200) Medina Spirit moved from being heralded as the gritty competitor who gave trainer Bob Baffert his record seventh Kentucky Derby victory to having his win tainted by a positive drug test for the therapeutic medication betamethasone. How this will play out in the running of the Preakness is impossible to predict. Baffert has a tremendous record with his Derby winners returning to victory in the Preakness. Medina Spirit has never run worse than second in his six starts and all three of those place finishes happened when he was not on the lead in the early going. Regardless of who else is in the field, Medina Spirit will try to control the race on the front end. Win Contender.

4. Crowded Trade (10-1 – More Than Ready – Chad Brown / Javier Castellano – 3: 1-1-1 - $179,000) Crowded Trade will try the Preakness with only three career starts which includes a debut maiden victory, a nose loss in the Gotham (G3), and then a third in the Wood Memorial (G2). The horses that came from the New York Derby preps did not perform well two weeks ago at Churchill Downs. Trainer Chad Brown won the second leg of the Triple Crown in 2017 with Cloud Computing. Use underneath.

5. Midnight Bourbon (5-1 – Tiznow – Steve Asmussen / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 8: 2-2-3 - $461,420) Midnight Bourbon ran in only graded-stakes races since he broke his maiden last summer at Ellis Park. Unlike the Kentucky Derby, where he is winless, trainer Steve Asmussen won the Preakness twice with the filly Rachel Alexandra in 2009 and two years prior with Curlin. Midnight Bourbon’s only finish outside of the top three was his sixth in the Derby, when he got bumped back to 12th in the early going. Typically, he prefers to be pressing the early pace.  He will be a clear third betting choice behind the Baffert runners. Top Choice.

6. Rombauer (12-1 – Twirling Candy – Michael McCarthy / Flavien Prat – 4: 1-1-1 - $107,380) Rombauer brings an interesting six-race career with a win on the turf to start his career, a victory on the artificial surface at Golden Gate in the El Camino Real Derby, and a second and a third in graded stakes on the dirt. Trainer Michael McCarthy skipped the Run for the Roses because the El Camino Real victory got Rombauer an all-expense paid spot in the Preakness. His preferred running style is that of a closer. Live longshot.

7. France Go De Ina (20-1 – Will Take Charge – Mori Hideyuki / Joel Rosario – 4: 2-0-0 - $145,291) This Kentucky-bred will make his first start in America after running sixth in the UAE Derby (G2) in March at Meydan in Dubai. Prior to that race, he broke his maiden and won an allowance in Japan where he is based. Toss.

8. Unbridled Honor (15-1 – Honor Code – Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez – 4: 1-1-1 - $107,380) Trainer Todd Pletcher has yet to win the Preakness, but the second leg of the Triple Crown has never been a high priority for him. He usually skips this race with his Kentucky Derby runners, unless they were the winner, and aims for the Belmont Stakes. Unbridled Honor broke his maiden at Tampa Bay Downs and then was fourth in the Tampa Derby. Most recently, he was second in the Lexington (G3) behind King Fury. That April 10 race made the Preakness an ideal spot for the son of Honor Code. Live Longshot.

9. Risk Taking (15-1 – Medaglia d’Oro – Chad Brown / Jose Ortiz – 5: 2-0-0 - $200,030) Risk Taking was an impressive winner of two starts at Aqueduct after trainer Chad Brown added blinkers for his maiden score and the Withers (G3) in February. He was a disappointing seventh in the Wood Memorial (G2) which dashed his Kentucky Derby hopes. He did his best running from off the pace and has a chance to hit the board in the Preakness. Use underneath.

10. Concert Tour (5-2 – Street Sense – Bob Baffert / Mike Smith – 4: 3-0-1 - $856,600) Concert Tour entered the Arkansas Derby (G1) with an unbeaten record that included the San Vicente (G2) and the Rebel (G2). In the Arkansas Derby, he had the lead in the stretch but then got run down by Super Stock and Caddo River. Baffert and owners Gary and Mary West opted to pass on the Run for the Roses for a variety of reasons and now the son of Street Sense returns for the Preakness. Concert Tour has two front-end victories and the other was a stalking trip in the San Vicente. Win contender.

Summary: Baffert's record in the Preakness is impeccable and the favored duo of Medina Spirit and Concert Tour appear hard to beat when you look at their performance on the racetrack.

However, they both do their best running on the front-end. That combined with the turmoil that has been swirling around the Baffert barn could make them both vulnerable.

Thus, I made Midnight Bourbon my top choice expecting better odds and a cozy stalking trip.

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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Just now, QuizGuy66 said:

surprised about the settlement noted - figured there already has to be a ton of case law out there saying these bettors are SOL

-QG

well, in terms of recouping any coin from their official bets on the Derby, they are SOL - that ship sails once the race is deemed "official" - 

the only recourse here is via lawsuit(s) - and away we go!

wonder how much this story is gonna tilt the split sample to come back favorably for Baffert ... i'd say this lawsuit all but clinches his vindication. 

 

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6 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

... i'll toss this in, from Shifman - no love for Keepmeinmind here:


1. Ram (30-1 – American Pharoah – D. Wayne Lukas / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 4: 1-1-1 - $107,380) His Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas loves running in the Preakness, a race he has won five times, most recently in 2013 with Oxbow. Ram won his last two starts: a $50,000 maiden claiming score at Oaklawn Park and then an allowance victory at Churchill Downs going a one-turn mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard. This will be his first try in a stakes race. Toss.

2. Keepmeinmind (15-1 – Laoban – Robertino Diodoro / David Cohen – 7: 1-2-1 - $424,987) This colt's 3-year-old season has been a stark contrast to his juvenile campaign. Last year, he was in contention in all four starts including a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). This year in three races, Keepmeinmind has not been a threat to win or even hit the board. In the Derby, he was last early, made up some ground, and then passed tired horses without really gaining ground on the top three. Toss.

3. Medina Spirit (9-5 – Protonico – Bob Baffert / John Velazquez – 6: 3-3-0 - $2,175,200) Medina Spirit moved from being heralded as the gritty competitor who gave trainer Bob Baffert his record seventh Kentucky Derby victory to having his win tainted by a positive drug test for the therapeutic medication betamethasone. How this will play out in the running of the Preakness is impossible to predict. Baffert has a tremendous record with his Derby winners returning to victory in the Preakness. Medina Spirit has never run worse than second in his six starts and all three of those place finishes happened when he was not on the lead in the early going. Regardless of who else is in the field, Medina Spirit will try to control the race on the front end. Win Contender.

4. Crowded Trade (10-1 – More Than Ready – Chad Brown / Javier Castellano – 3: 1-1-1 - $179,000) Crowded Trade will try the Preakness with only three career starts which includes a debut maiden victory, a nose loss in the Gotham (G3), and then a third in the Wood Memorial (G2). The horses that came from the New York Derby preps did not perform well two weeks ago at Churchill Downs. Trainer Chad Brown won the second leg of the Triple Crown in 2017 with Cloud Computing. Use underneath.

5. Midnight Bourbon (5-1 – Tiznow – Steve Asmussen / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 8: 2-2-3 - $461,420) Midnight Bourbon ran in only graded-stakes races since he broke his maiden last summer at Ellis Park. Unlike the Kentucky Derby, where he is winless, trainer Steve Asmussen won the Preakness twice with the filly Rachel Alexandra in 2009 and two years prior with Curlin. Midnight Bourbon’s only finish outside of the top three was his sixth in the Derby, when he got bumped back to 12th in the early going. Typically, he prefers to be pressing the early pace.  He will be a clear third betting choice behind the Baffert runners. Top Choice.

6. Rombauer (12-1 – Twirling Candy – Michael McCarthy / Flavien Prat – 4: 1-1-1 - $107,380) Rombauer brings an interesting six-race career with a win on the turf to start his career, a victory on the artificial surface at Golden Gate in the El Camino Real Derby, and a second and a third in graded stakes on the dirt. Trainer Michael McCarthy skipped the Run for the Roses because the El Camino Real victory got Rombauer an all-expense paid spot in the Preakness. His preferred running style is that of a closer. Live longshot.

7. France Go De Ina (20-1 – Will Take Charge – Mori Hideyuki / Joel Rosario – 4: 2-0-0 - $145,291) This Kentucky-bred will make his first start in America after running sixth in the UAE Derby (G2) in March at Meydan in Dubai. Prior to that race, he broke his maiden and won an allowance in Japan where he is based. Toss.

8. Unbridled Honor (15-1 – Honor Code – Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez – 4: 1-1-1 - $107,380) Trainer Todd Pletcher has yet to win the Preakness, but the second leg of the Triple Crown has never been a high priority for him. He usually skips this race with his Kentucky Derby runners, unless they were the winner, and aims for the Belmont Stakes. Unbridled Honor broke his maiden at Tampa Bay Downs and then was fourth in the Tampa Derby. Most recently, he was second in the Lexington (G3) behind King Fury. That April 10 race made the Preakness an ideal spot for the son of Honor Code. Live Longshot.

9. Risk Taking (15-1 – Medaglia d’Oro – Chad Brown / Jose Ortiz – 5: 2-0-0 - $200,030) Risk Taking was an impressive winner of two starts at Aqueduct after trainer Chad Brown added blinkers for his maiden score and the Withers (G3) in February. He was a disappointing seventh in the Wood Memorial (G2) which dashed his Kentucky Derby hopes. He did his best running from off the pace and has a chance to hit the board in the Preakness. Use underneath.

10. Concert Tour (5-2 – Street Sense – Bob Baffert / Mike Smith – 4: 3-0-1 - $856,600) Concert Tour entered the Arkansas Derby (G1) with an unbeaten record that included the San Vicente (G2) and the Rebel (G2). In the Arkansas Derby, he had the lead in the stretch but then got run down by Super Stock and Caddo River. Baffert and owners Gary and Mary West opted to pass on the Run for the Roses for a variety of reasons and now the son of Street Sense returns for the Preakness. Concert Tour has two front-end victories and the other was a stalking trip in the San Vicente. Win contender.

Summary: Baffert's record in the Preakness is impeccable and the favored duo of Medina Spirit and Concert Tour appear hard to beat when you look at their performance on the racetrack.

However, they both do their best running on the front-end. That combined with the turmoil that has been swirling around the Baffert barn could make them both vulnerable.

Thus, I made Midnight Bourbon my top choice expecting better odds and a cozy stalking trip.

 

Pretty much exactly how I see it.  I think the exacta box is Midnight Bourbon (Asmussen very confident) with both of the Baffert runners (strong lean on MS being the one) and then one of the longshots underneath.  Hoping it's Rombauer

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On 5/12/2021 at 11:54 AM, wikkidpissah said:

Rombo would be the luckiest possible drop. failing that, i'd have to take the Japanese horse simply because this is a bad crop with the best here all having the same running style

Rombo did drop, that's my pool horse. Trying to turn 20 into 200.

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17 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

Pretty much exactly how I see it.  I think the exacta box is Midnight Bourbon (Asmussen very confident) with both of the Baffert runners (strong lean on MS being the one) and then one of the longshots underneath.  Hoping it's Rombauer

yeah ... gonna be hard pressed to find a winner here who will not be on the engine - the history of this race tells that tale ... also 34 of the past 40 winners have come out the Derby - them's 2 huge feathers in the caps of MS & MB. 

Oxbow and Cloud Computing of recent vintage tell a different story, but Ox had rain, and Cloudy played the perfect stalk off of Always Dreaming & Classic Empire, 3rd behind them the whole way - but that seems to be MB's role this year, though.

however, it would not shock me to see Crowded Trade repeating said Cloudy tactic for Brown again this year ... (Risk Taking is more of an off the pace closer) - i'll be using Crowded Trade for this reason. 

and KMiM is just too damn intriguing to toss ... this race has seen a fair share of longer priced closers consistently money - i love his chances to cash for me. 

MS/MB/CrTr/KMiM - CT pending. 

will see how bias is playing before deciding on whether to key MB or KMiM ... if it's welcoming to closers, i toss Concert Tour altogeher, and key KMiM ... if front is holding, then it's MB keyed with the other 4 (CT in that mix).

 

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1 minute ago, otb_lifer said:

btw ... i never play it, but i just noticed Pimlico offers the .10 Superfecta for the Preakness - hell, roll the 4 longest shots over the field in 2/3/4 for a cool $48 😅

My wife LOVES to play those damn .10 supers lol

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Chaz McNulty said:

Has anyone considered that the drugs MS had in his system really did help, and being drug free for this race might make a difference?

he wasn't really popped for any kinda PED juice ... Betamethasone is an anti-inflammatory, so it wasn't exactly a juiced up speed freak who now has to race without his magic oats. 

enormous scrutiny now, because if he does run out, it will be (erroneously) blamed on the lack of wünder ointment. 

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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27 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

he wasn't really popped for any kinda PED juice ... Betamethasone is an anti-inflammatory, so it wasn't exactly a juiced up speed freak who now has to race without his magic oats. 

enormous scrutiny now, because if he does run out, it will be (erroneously) blamed on the lack of wünder ointment. 

 

This isn't an anabolic steroid.  It's a corticosteroid.  Not used as a PED.  But this is one of the side effects of stopping use.

Quote

Withdrawal from long-term use of corticosteroids can cause fatigue, weight loss, and nausea

 

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3 minutes ago, Chaz McNulty said:

This isn't an anabolic steroid.  It's a corticosteroid.  Not used as a PED.  But this is one of the side effects of stopping use.

 

 

i never said it was a PED.

anyway, if you think he backs up without it, then play accordingly ✌ 

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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Official 2021 Belmont Stakes Thread*** Zahzeetch Fest At Big Sandy - Mal Sits It Out 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)
  • otb_lifer changed the title to It's All About Spa-Mar (DelaToga?) 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)

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