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It's All About Spa-Mar (DelaToga?) Now Featuring Degen Bullrings For Your Disposable Income & Derision 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)


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43 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

race 7

3rd off a layoff

Gets Joel back 

6-1 ml    #4   Speaktomeofsummer 

💰

giving that race a closer look ... your #4 is close to the chalk (#6 Tamahere) in figs - but these Euro breds have been tough thus far. 

i like Joel/CC better on the spinach than Irad/Chad - but it's close. 

nice exacta box, or use both to kick off the late p3 or p4. 

🤘

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HFS :excited:

the prohib fave in the 1st at the Spa (#6 the Mean Queen) was waltzing home by a clear 7 or so lengths, when, all of a sudden ... SHE UNSEATS THE RIDER. 

i mean, ferchrissakes, they just went 2 grueling miles, jumping 10 fences ... and THERE is where you #### up? IN THE LEAD BY 8 LENGTHS WITH ONLY MERE YARDS LEFT TO THE FINISH LINE?

you can't make this kinda #### up, folks ... welcome to our world! 

the bridge jumpers will stretch all the way down to Sleepy Hollow on this one. 

 

 

... btw, the #5 horse (31-1) wound up winning - both the ill-fated #6 horse and the winner are Irish breds - might be something afoul in ol' Sligo - wouldn't put cahoots or shennanigans past that lot 🇮🇪

:deadhorse:

 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

R2: 1,2,6 - really liking the looks of that #1 horse - speed figs are perfect in here, added bonus of first out for new barn. if i crap out on the first leg jumpers, i'll be banging this #1 horse (Fox Red) 'til my elbows bleed - if Cancel breaks clean this could be over by the 1/2m mark. 

 

🐎🐎🐎 and here we go 🐎🐎🐎

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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27 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

show dough saver from Fox Red. 

race 3: key the 4 over 1,6,8,9 

 

1 horse was clear by 4 lengths mid-stretch ... was looking solid, then the 6 clouded this #### like a champ, and snatched it by a whisker at the wire. 

backers of the #6 in the 1st, and the #1 in here in the 3rd gotta be looking to pull a Frankie "Five Angels" right about now. 

####in' brutal. 

 

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Spa - Race 5

gonna take a swing with the Irad/Rudy #6 in this MSW ... outta Boys At Tosconova. 

gonna play with the #8, outta Lemon Drop Kid, with Tyler Gaf up for Marker - lethal on the cabbage these two. 

bottom out with the #1, who is one of a few who have already been out. 

1/6/8 quinella

1,6,8/1,6,8/1,4,6,8 tri 

 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

6 will be super hard to beat at the Spa in race 7.  4 year old in form against some that have gone south.  Think the 9 is live for 2nd.  8 is my longer shot.  6-9, 6-8

 

8/6/7/9

6 was rank most of the early going, the 8 got out to some lazy fractions, had the needed breather. 

good call

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I'm so hungover that I'm probably still drunk and it's almost 2 p.m. on the left coast so I'll play.   Looked at the form before I checked the scratches and now my third choice is the favorite.   Some decent prices on a bunch of similarly mediocre horses, so I'll wheel the chalk with Irad up.

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Could be wrong but I'm getting off the 7 in this one.  Doesn't seem to run good races back and DePaz 9% with a bad ROI on horses coming back in 30-60 days.  Off the 3 as well.  Donk never high percentage but he's 4% 2 off 45+ layoffs.  Tossing them both.  Going to throw the 5 in there at 17-1.  I think he's better than the last one on turf and Franco has a high ROI with Clement, who's 24% in turf sprints.  Meant well for sure. 6 is live with Ward/Rosario, and the 8 may be better than soft #'s and competition show.  10 and 12 are the other contenders but they are marooned a bit.   So narrowed to 5, 6, 8, 10 and 12.  Now - how to play it

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15 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

HFS :excited:

the prohib fave in the 1st at the Spa (#6 the Mean Queen) was waltzing home by a clear 7 or so lengths, when, all of a sudden ... SHE UNSEATS THE RIDER. 

i mean, ferchrissakes, they just went 2 grueling miles, jumping 10 fences ... and THERE is where you #### up? IN THE LEAD BY 8 LENGTHS WITH ONLY MERE YARDS LEFT TO THE FINISH LINE?

you can't make this kinda #### up, folks ... welcome to our world! 

the bridge jumpers will stretch all the way down to Sleepy Hollow on this one. 

 

 

... btw, the #5 horse (31-1) wound up winning - both the ill-fated #6 horse and the winner are Irish breds - might be something afoul in ol' Sligo - wouldn't put cahoots or shennanigans past that lot 🇮🇪

:deadhorse:

 

 

there are "bad beats", then there is THIS

still *shuked* no matter how many times i see it ... added bonus of watching the jock on the longshot winner waving back as he crosses :bye:

:lol:

both jock & horse emerged unscathed, but dunno if i can say the same for the bridge jumpers who emptied out on that yuuuge favorite.

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Spa - Race 2

really digging the #6 up in here, but i'm kinda feeling the form cycle dictates a slight bounce - also jumps up in class a bit ... conversely, i do like the stretch out - connections are sneakily efficient, to boot. 

gonna box with the #2, who has disappointed recently, but does have 2 wins routing over the spinach ... 3rd off a 2 month layoff, and Jose Ortiz is making folks forget his brother (sometimes).

ETA: @Judge Smails anything for Del Mar you liking later on?

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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20 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

Spa - Race 2

really digging the #6 up in here, but i'm kinda feeling the form cycle dictates a slight bounce - also jumps up in class a bit ... conversely, i do like the stretch out - connections are sneakily efficient, to boot. 

gonna box with the #2, who has disappointed recently, but does have 2 wins routing over the spinach ... 3rd off a 2 month layoff, and Jose Ortiz is making folks forget his brother (sometimes).

ETA: @Judge Smails anything for Del Mar you liking later on?

 

 

1/2/7

6 hung outside whole trip - quick qtr, but breather on the front for the 2 thru the half, then got nipped up the fence by the chalk. 

 

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16 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

Spa Race 4

3,8,9

box 'em up, i'm keying the #3 on the class drop. 

 

8/9/3

failed to mention that another plus for the #3 was three previous treks in the slop - but he was outmuscled here top of the stretch ... had a slight lead turning for home, but the two chalks ate him up ... was his slop chops that kept him up for show dough/bottom of tri - the rest of the field labored mightily.

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11 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

Spa - Race 5

the #11 & #12 are the only 2 to have navigated the slop previously ... lean to the 12, who was narrowly beaten by a head in his mucky race - gotta run 'em given these conditions. 

 

1/4/2

man, the 11 got nipped for show dough by a baby's breath. 

gonna be a yuuge payout here on them verticals. 

- the 12 basically couldn't be bothered to lift a hoof after attending 4 wide thru the first 1/4. 

nice. 

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21 minutes ago, Runkle said:

Man I really wish I knew how to handicap races better. I've got some harebrained "system" to read the PPs but some day I want to really figure out what to look for in a race. 

 

care to unpack that a bit?

 

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Posted (edited)

jeezzusss, 4 horse field for the 7th (on the heels of a 4 horse field in the 6th).

they had some heavy downpours ... scratches galore.

the #10 should romp here ... and he's starting to get hammered as such.

- that #6 horse has been burning chalk money down at Gulfstream - this is his first out in roughly 3 months - new barn alert 📢

:popcorn:

Edited by otb_lifer
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18 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

jeezzusss, 4 horse field for the 7th (on the heels of a 4 horse field in the 6th).

they had some heavy downpours ... scratches galore.

the #10 should romp here ... and he's starting to get hammered as such.

- that #6 horse has been burning chalk money down at Gulfstream - this is his first out in roughly 3 months - new barn alert 📢

:popcorn:

 

10/6 

:thumbup:

 

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Posted (edited)

Spa - Race 8

gotta get behind this #9 horse here ... first out for barn which holds a robust hit rate for their debut horses ... has also been in the slop previously - that, coupled with her speed, should be lethal here - great spot. 

key box that #9 with the 1,5,7

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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3 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

Spa - Race 8

gotta get behind this #9 horse here ... first out for barn which holds a robust hit rate for their debut horses ... has also been in the slop previously - that, coupled with her speed, should be lethal here - great spot. 

key box that #9 with the 1,5,7

 

I thought you wanted the 5?

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1 hour ago, otb_lifer said:
2 hours ago, Runkle said:

Man I really wish I knew how to handicap races better. I've got some harebrained "system" to read the PPs but some day I want to really figure out what to look for in a race. 

 

care to unpack that a bit?

 

 

Some years ago I stumbled on to some formula... something like "days since last work + total lengths back last 3 races + a few other numbers from the PPs" and then bet the horse with the lowest total. Not really any analysis of the horses themselves, or the race itself and how they would likely run it, which I think is probably a better system than just reading some numbers lol

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1 minute ago, Runkle said:

 

Some years ago I stumbled on to some formula... something like "days since last work + total lengths back last 3 races + a few other numbers from the PPs" and then bet the horse with the lowest total. Not really any analysis of the horses themselves, or the race itself and how they would likely run it, which I think is probably a better system than just reading some numbers lol

 

sounds like the Norman Force method ... developed at Narragansett, back in the 60s

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8 minutes ago, Runkle said:

 

Some years ago I stumbled on to some formula... something like "days since last work + total lengths back last 3 races + a few other numbers from the PPs" and then bet the horse with the lowest total. Not really any analysis of the horses themselves, or the race itself and how they would likely run it, which I think is probably a better system than just reading some numbers lol

Post some system picks some day

Ill ride you like a rented mule 

:oldunsure:

 

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10 minutes ago, -fish- said:

In for some action where the surf meets the turf.   4,5,6 tribox in the 4th and atb on 5.   

 

welp, looks like i found Jersey Joe Bravo 👏

IN.

i'll box with the #9, broke it's maiden here in November - figs on par with tops in here. 

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