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17 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

I always was a sucker for a closer

ūüćĽ

well, i was always a closer for a sucker....................................hmmmm...............thought that might be a joke...............'t'isn't.................carry on

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

well, i was always a closer for a sucker....................................hmmmm...............thought that might be a joke...............'t'isn't.................carry on

trying to keep it clean, big fella ūü§Ē

Edited by otb_lifer
i was feeling it
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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Penguin said:

good to see O Besos holding at a consistent 40/1 ... it's very early still, but enthused to see that he has yet to be "Wise-guyed", which is what i'm most wary of with him - hope he stays relatively under the radar, hovering in the 30+ range. 

got a feeling he's gonna wind up on a fair share of sharp vertical tix, though. 

here's hoping Mandaloun or Sainthood or Dynamic One get the wiseguy treatment, instead.

BOURBONIC? can he get any more love? classic cash for clunker right there ūü¶ė

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On a cool Kentucky morning, a total of 17 Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks horses put in their final timed workouts before next weekend’s editions of the $3 million Derby and $1.25 million Oaks.

    The fastest move of the morning was a half-mile drill in :46.20 by Keepmeinmind with Dynamic One, one of four Derby workers for Todd Pletcher, having the second-fastest clocking of the 108 at the distance in :47.80.

    Other Derby workers for Pletcher were Bourbonic (half-mile in :49.60) and Known Agenda and Sainthood (five furlongs together in 1:01.

    Other Derby workers were Caddo River (five furlongs in 1:00.60), Helium (half-mile in :49.80), Soup and Sandwich (half-mile in :50), Hozier (six furlongs in 1:16) and Starrininmydreams(five furlongs in 1:00.20).

Scheduled to work at Churchill Downs Saturday morning for the Derby are Essential Quality, Mandaloun, Highly Motivated, Super Stock and King Fury. Scheduled to work for the Oaks are Crazy Beautiful and Millefeuille.

    Other works involving Kentucky Derby hopefuls are scheduled on three fronts Saturday. Slated to work at Santa Anita are Rock Your World and Hot Rod Charlie; at San Luis Rey will be Get Her Number, and, at Keeneland, Like the King.

BOURBONIC, DYNAMIC ONE, KNOWN AGENDA, SAINTHOOD¬†‚Äst¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†Trainer¬†Todd¬†Pletcher, seeking his third Kentucky Derby victory, put the final touches on his quartet of Derby 147 hopefuls with works Friday morning.

    At 7:30, Pletcher worked St. Elias Stable’s Known Agenda and WinStar Farm and CHC Inc.’s Sainthood in company through five furlongs in 1:01 while Repole Stable, Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable’s Dynamic One worked a half-mile in :47.80 in company with the graded stakes-placed Prime Factor.

    Florida Derby (GI) winner Known Agenda, with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, worked inside of Jeff Ruby Steaks (GIII) runner-up Sainthood and Amelia Green through fractions of :12.60, :24.40, :36.20 and galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.20 and seven-eighths in 1:27.20. The five-eighths time was the 17th fastest of 50 at the distance.

¬†¬†¬†¬†‚ÄúKnown Agenda is not the most aggressive work horse,‚Ä̬†Pletcher¬†said. ‚ÄúHe is not an¬†Always Dreaming¬†(the 2017 Kentucky Derby winner) that will work in :59. He has had two good works here (1:00.40 last Friday) and I liked the way Sainthood worked with him.‚ÄĚ

    Dynamic One, with jockey Jose Ortiz in the boot, posted fractions of :24.40 and :36.20 en route to a :47.80 half-mile that was the second fastest of 108 at the distance. He galloped out five furlongs in 1:00.60 and six furlongs in 1:13.20.

¬†¬†¬†¬†‚ÄúHe finished full of energy with his ears pricked,‚Ä̬†Pletcher¬†said

The final Pletcher runner to work was Calumet Farm’s Bourbonic who covered a half-mile on his own in :49.60 under exercise rider Hector Ramos.

    Fractions on the work were :12.80, :24.40 and out five furlongs in 1:02.40. The work was the 71st fastest of 108 at the distance.

¬†¬†¬†¬†‚ÄúHe has been pretty aggressive in his gallops so we worked him by himself today,‚Ä̬†Pletcher¬†said. ‚ÄúIt was a good steady work with a strong gallop out.

¬†¬†¬†¬†‚ÄúIt was a very good morning with excellent breezes going the way we hoped they would. That was the final piece of major work and now they will have routine gallops with some gate and paddock schooling.‚ÄĚ

CADDO RIVER, ESSENTIAL QUALITY, MANDALOUN¬†‚ÄstShortleaf Stable‚Äôs¬†Caddo River¬†completed his major preparation prior to the Kentucky Derby with a five-furlong drill in 1:00.60.

    With Florent Geroux in the saddle, Caddo River worked in company with Warrant. Caddo River started two lengths behind his stablemate and clipped through fractions of :12.20, :23.80 and :47.60. Caddo River galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.

¬†¬†¬†¬†‚ÄúHe‚Äôs a really solid horse and we saw that with a good effort in the Arkansas Derby,‚ÄĚ trainer¬†Brad Cox¬†said. ‚ÄúHe has a lot of speed as we‚Äôve seen in his previous races.‚ÄĚ

Cox’s other two Derby contenders, Mandaloun and likely favorite Essential Quality, are scheduled to work at 5:15 a.m. Saturday.

    Geroux will work Mandaloun, who he will ride in the Derby, while Essential Quality’s regular exercise rider Edvin Vargas will likely be up for the work. Luis Saez has the call for the Derby.

DREAM SHAKE¬†‚ÄstExline-Border¬†Racing,¬†SAF Racing¬†and¬†Richard¬†Hausman‚Äôs¬†Dream Shake¬†will bypass the Kentucky Derby in favor of the $500,000 Pat Day Mile presented by LG&E and KU (GII), per trainer¬†Peter¬†Eurton.

GET HER NUMBER ‚Äď Gary Barber‚Äôs¬†Get Her Number¬†is scheduled to work for trainer¬†Peter Miller¬†at San Luis Rey Saturday morning.

HELIUM, SOUP AND SANDWICH¬†‚ÄstD J Stable‚Äôs¬†Helium¬†and¬†Live Oak Plantation‚Äôs¬†homebred¬†Soup and Sandwich¬†completed their final Derby preparations Friday morning for trainer¬†Mark¬†Casse. Helium, a son of¬†Ironicus, hit the track at 5:25 under¬†Julien¬†Leparoux¬†and went four furlongs in company with fellow 3-year-old¬†Laker Mamba¬†in :49.80, while galloping out five furlongs in 1:03. Soup and Sandwich, under jockey¬†Tyler¬†Gaffalione, was on the track at 7:30 during the designated 15-minute training period for Derby and Oaks horses and worked four furlongs in company with 4-year-old graded stakes winner¬†Peace Achieved¬†in :50, while galloping out 5 furlongs in 1:03.60.

¬†¬†‚ÄúVery happy with both of them,‚Ä̬†Casse‚Äôs¬†assistant¬†David Carroll said. ‚ÄúI thought Helium‚Äôs work was good; he‚Äôs a very smooth-moving horse. He‚Äôs the better work horse of the two and he went absolutely beautiful; in hand the whole way, just waiting for Julien to ask him. He just stretched his legs but that‚Äôs all we were looking for.

    “Soup and Sandwich was a little rank going to the pole but he’s a horse that likes to train. We only jogged him two miles the other day so he was a little fresh. He was anxious to get going but once he broke off he was very smooth the whole way, switched leads, galloped out nicely, and came home great; you couldn’t ask for anything better.

¬†¬†¬†¬†‚ÄúThese were the works we wanted for the final pieces of works. Both horses are in great shape so hopefully we have a good week and we have a good draw.‚ÄĚ

HIDDEN STASH ‚Äď BBN Racing‚Äôs¬†Hidden Stash¬†worked five furlongs in company in 1:00.60 and galloped out six furlongs in 1:13.80 over a fast track shortly after the track opened at¬†Keeneland¬†Friday morning.

¬†¬†¬†¬†‚ÄúWe decided to work this morning and beat the rain that is forecast and he worked great,‚ÄĚ trainer¬†Vicki Oliver¬†said.

  With exercise rider Darragh Sweeney aboard, Hidden Stash started three lengths in back of Esperer (FR), a 3-year-old maiden, and finished four lengths in front.

¬†¬†¬†¬†‚ÄúHe is going to jog and stand in the gate tomorrow and walk Sunday,‚ÄĚ said Oliver, who was aboard Hidden Stash‚Äôs workmate. ‚ÄúHe will gallop Monday and Tuesday and ship to Churchill after he trains Tuesday morning.‚ÄĚ

HIGHLY MOTIVATED ‚ÄstKlaravich¬†Stables‚Äô Highly Motivated¬†came out onto the track under¬†Peter Roman¬†at 6:07 and galloped about 1 ¬Ĺ miles. The son of Into Mischief was second, beaten a neck, by champion¬†Essentially Quality¬†in the Blue Grass (GII) at¬†Keeneland¬†in what was his two-turn debut for trainer¬†Chad Brown.

¬†¬†¬†¬†‚ÄúI‚Äôm probably going to work him five-eighths tomorrow,‚ÄĚ Brown said. ‚ÄúHe‚Äôs a horse that carries a lot of conditioning on him. He‚Äôs a big, strong heavy guy that can handle a pretty solid work tomorrow. I was proud of him in the Blue Grass and I think it‚Äôs a race he can build off of.‚ÄĚ

HOT ROD CHARLIE ‚Äď Roadrunner Racing,¬†Boat Racing¬†and¬†Strauss Bros Racing‚Äôs¬†Hot Rod Charlie¬†isscheduled to work Saturday morning at Santa Anita and ship to Churchill Downs on Sunday for trainer¬†Doug O‚ÄôNeill.

HOZIER, MEDINA SPIRIT ‚ÄstRebel Stakes (GII) runner-up¬†Hozier¬†worked six furlongs in 1:16 under jockey¬†Rafael¬†Bejarano.

Working on his own after 9 o’clock, the Bob Baffert trainee produced fractions of :12.80, :25.20, :37.80, 1:03.20 and galloped out seven furlongs in 1:29.

    Stablemate Medina Spirit, owned by Zedan Racing Stables, worked six furlongs in 1:12.20 Thursday morning at Santa Anita and arrived at Churchill Downs Friday afternoon. 

LIKE THE KING ‚Äď M Racing Group‚Äôs¬†Like the King¬†is scheduled to work at¬†Keeneland¬†at 7:30 Saturday morning for trainer¬†Wesley Ward.

KEEPMEINMIND ‚Äď Spendthrift Farm,¬†Cypress Creek¬†and¬†Arnold¬†Bennewith‚Äôs¬†Keepmeinmind¬†blitzed a half-mile in :46.20, the fastest of 108 at the distance over a fast track Friday morning at Churchill Downs.

    With jockey David Cohen aboard, Keepmeinmind posted fractions of :22.80, :34.40 and galloped out five furlongs in :59.20 while working in company with Shasta Star.

¬†¬†¬†¬†‚ÄúI am very happy with both of them,‚ÄĚ said trainer¬†Robertino¬†Diodoro¬†whose¬†Ava‚Äôs Grace¬†worked for the Kentucky Oaks just prior to¬†Keepmeinmind‚Äôs¬†breeze. ‚ÄúHe worked really good today and he loves the track here, too.‚ÄĚ

While Diodoro was watching the work from the backstretch, connections at Spendthrift were watching the work on Twitter.

¬†¬†¬†¬†‚ÄúI just got a text from them, ‚Äėvery sharp‚Äô,‚Ä̬†Diodoro¬†said.

    Keepmeinmind, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club (GII) here last fall, is No. 22 on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard and would need two defections to make the field of 20.

¬†¬†¬†¬†‚ÄúIt is a tough spot,‚Ä̬†Diodoro¬†said. ‚ÄúIf we don‚Äôt get in, we will train here for the Preakness.‚ÄĚ

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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Somewhat OFFICIAL Road To The 2021 Kentucky Derby*** ūüé∂ Everybody's Working For The (Next) Weekend ūüé∂ ūüźé (Missing GB MoCS)
On 4/23/2021 at 10:44 AM, otb_lifer said:

trying to keep it clean, big fella ūü§Ē

I don't know about a closer for a sucker, but I've heard that only closers get coffee.  Sell it, Shel, sell it. :deadhorse:

Edited by rockaction
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Hozier drops out (another Baffert trainee), which opens the door for King Fury (McPeek).

6 lifetime races (FIVE! as a 2 yr old), all in Kentucky, all 1m 1/16th - split evenly between Keeneland & Churchill, alternating venues throughout. 

won his debut, an MSW at CD ... then bombed in the Breeder's Futurity at Keeneland - rebounded to take the Street Sense back at CD, then plopped to 7th in the Juvey. 

then a 5th in the KJGC back in November. 

made his first start this year count, as he took down the GIII Lexington in the slop 2 weeks ago. 

some brisk early fractions in that one, ol' KF was next to last at the 1/2, but rallied up to win this one comfortably.

looks just like his pops, Curlin (i'm talkin' physically, not necessarily style/talent) who has proven to be a very prodigious sire.  

had a very nice work yesterday, and this is a much better entrant than Hozier, who i couldn't wait to toss (would've bet him to finish 20th) ... and if we get a wet track, well - we see he can handle the slop ... though recent vintange KD winners in the muck have all pretty much wired the gig ... that might have an awful lot to do with the quality of those winners, who were the elite speed coming in. 

dunno how RYW or Caddoooo will handle off track, but i'd have to believe that RYW would absolutely be sent gangbusters in that scenario.

question then becomes if he has enough to maintain on the front ... the S.A. Derby gave every indication he can, but this will only be his 2nd start on dirt, and, if we are all wet, well - that's a whole other animal. 

anyways ... all hail the Kingūü§ī

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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Somewhat OFFICIAL Road To The 2021 Kentucky Derby*** Take Off, Hozier - Make Way For The King ūüźé (Missing GB MoCS)

Cadoooo is OUT

this opens the door for Brooklyn Strong, last seen sucking wind in the glacial Wood at beautiful Aqueduct. 

@wikkidpissah¬†your boy gets his shot ūü§Ē

biggest story here is losing the rabbit we all wanted so much ... this sets RYW up beautifully if he can snag a favorable draw - he's the fastest of this bunch, and now he may not be softened, lest we think Soup n' Sammy can do the job - dunno if Hot Rod Chuck is gonna wanna burn out early chasing a (hopefully) sub :23/:46

maybe RYW now lets Soupy give 'em a target - but i can't imagine he'll be any further back than 2nd heading to the stretch. 

:deadhorse:

 

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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Somewhat OFFICIAL Road To The 2021 Kentucky Derby*** Take Off, Hozier - Make Way For The King/ Caddooo OUT, How Strong Is 11211? ūüźé (Missing GB MoCS)
3 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

:lol:

to his great credit, he does have this gritty win in last year's Remsen to call back on ... waayyyy ahead of eventual Fla. Derby winner (and current KD darling) Known Agenda, who wanted NO part of that off track. 

something to consider if we get anuddah muddah in 6 days. 

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Just now, otb_lifer said:

to his great credit, he does have this gritty win in last year's Remsen to call back on ... waayyyy ahead of eventual Fla. Derby winner (and current KD darling) Known Agenda, who wanted NO part of that off track. 

something to consider if we get anuddah muddah in 6 days. 

Your post made me chuckle is all

ūüėÉ

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Just now, Cowboysfan8 said:

Your post made me chuckle is all

ūüėÉ

i gotcha on that ... that's what i figured  :hifive:

man, entire complexion of this race shifted in a heartbeat -¬†RYW¬†is now the one horse who needs to be on every ticket, and if he gets a comfy post draw it's gonna be awfully hard to discount him as the winner ... but we'll find a way ūüėĀ

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Posted (edited)

Get Her Number also dropped out, paving the way for Keepmeinmind, who had the most impressive final work of all contenders (4f in 46.2! - best of all 108 who worked the surface on Friday).

 

kinda have a feeling we see one more bigger name scratch prior to post draw Tuesday - this thing is flippin'

 

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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1 hour ago, otb_lifer said:

Cadoooo is OUT

this opens the door for Brooklyn Strong, last seen sucking wind in the glacial Wood at beautiful Aqueduct. 

@wikkidpissah¬†your boy gets his shot ūü§Ē

biggest story here is losing the rabbit we all wanted so much ... this sets RYW up beautifully if he can snag a favorable draw - he's the fastest of this bunch, and now he may not be softened, lest we think Soup n' Sammy can do the job - dunno if Hot Rod Chuck is gonna wanna burn out early chasing a (hopefully) sub :23/:46

maybe RYW now lets Soupy give 'em a target - but i can't imagine he'll be any further back than 2nd heading to the stretch. 

:deadhorse:

 

yeah, i have a weakness for Remsen winners cuz its the first time 2yos go 9f (or used to be, i dunno) and Known Agenda was in it, but now i see the fig was a wetass 79, which actually lines up with his onceover in the Wood. nothing to see here, move along

i was getting more behind Rock anyway after seeing he had a final furlong under 12secs in one of his turf races. it'll be a 3-1, 7-2 sitch w he and the fave now. any fans who can still get +525 on him should hit now

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

yeah, i have a weakness for Remsen winners cuz its the first time 2yos go 9f (or used to be, i dunno) and Known Agenda was in it, but now i see the fig was a wetass 79, which actually lines up with his onceover in the Wood. nothing to see here, move along

best part of him sneaking in is giving Rispoli a mount for this race ... booted off of RYW, he now gets to sit on Brooklyn Strong in the biggest race of his life ... kid has been a solid rider out in Cali, good to see him resurface

this was prior to being named on Brooky¬†‚úĆ

#motivated

 

30 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

 

i was getting more behind Rock anyway after seeing he had a final furlong under 12secs in one of his turf races. it'll be a 3-1, 7-2 sitch w he and the fave now. any fans who can still get +525 on him should hit now

changes how i'm gonna 'cap this thing a great deal ... dunno who can get out with him at top cruising speed - no reason to believe he can't sustain, he looked fit for another panel or two at the S.A. wire - only cat who checks every recent form box:

undefeated - yes.

winner of one of the last major preps - yes.

100+ BSF - yes. only one in field. 

tough to buck this lad. 

Edited by otb_lifer
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9 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

best part of him sneaking in is giving Rispoli a mount for this race ... booted off of RYW, he now gets to sit on Brooklyn Strong in the biggest race of his life ... kid has been a solid rider out in Cali, good to see him resurface

this was prior to being named on Brooky¬†‚úĆ

#motivated

 

yeah, RYW's weakness is that it takes a lot to get him to that last lead change. i'm not sure whether to fault Rispoli for that or fear whether the next boy wont

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Posted (edited)

the arrival of RYW - finally

scoping out the new digs "this ain't that sunny and warm place anymore" ūüėü

big ### YOWLING at the :23 mark "I'M HERE!"- inspects some more, then lopes along like a ####### boss. 

ūüźé that is one big and impressive looking racehorse, jeez - wonder if they strolled him past EQ & Chuck ūü§Ē

 

 

 

(yeah, race can't get here soon enough ūüėĄ)

 

 

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First of all, so good to have you back, OTB.  You make this thread interesting every year.  And you bring out the best in other posters as well.  

I was sort of down on this Derby, until I started reading Clocker reports from Mike Welsch.  They have been such a part of my Derby wagering strategy and success over the years.  When he says a horse is working phenomenally well or looks the best in the field I have often bet with both fists.  Street Sense, Always Dreaming, Orb and others. I also RUN from horses who put in average works in their final work.  I also traditionally hate the Blue Grass as a prep.  4 weeks is not ideal, and it's a horses for courses track more than others.  EQ and Highly Motivated not only come out of a prep I don't like, they battled to the wire in a tough race after setting a soft pace up front going easy.  EQ had a funky motion late, sort of lugging out and his legs flying out.  Then in their final work they both struggled, finishing behind their workmates.  I hate that.  You have to draw away from those horses with ease.  I think both are over the top so my main strategy is to toss both.  I am with OTB on both Rock Your World and O Besos being extra live.  A lot depends on the draw but if RYW breaks clean he should get the most comfortable trip.  He drew off with authority in the SA Derby and is still progressing.  My only pause is Sadler has done nothing in the Derby.  And he's had good 3 year olds.  (I hope you all saw Flightline's race this weekend - WOW).  Rosario on is the right call.

I can't fault Known Agenda's race in the Florida Derby at all.  The kind I like to see.  Professional.  Stayed on the rail and showed he can rate inside of horses easily.  Irad was patient, then eased out, went around the front runners and won going away.  Looks like 1 1/4 is within reach.  And looks pushbutton.  If RYW doesn't fire for whatever reason this is the horse to beat.  Doesn't need the lead.  Hard to see him not contending turning for home.

Pretty game win by Hot Rod Charlie in the LA Derby. Like the fact that he was basically shown the whip twice in the stretch and was game pulling away at the end with a hand ride.  O'Neill has a better track record in the Derby than Sadler though I don't think this horse is as talented as I'll Have Another or Nyquist.  He'll be right there turning for home. After that I don't know.

O Besos looks like a very live closer and the workout report was sensational.  Can't fault Super Stock either.  Like Known Agenda looked very professional rating.  Similar race but not quite as impressive to me. But could see clunking up in the exotics picture.

Like I do every year I have to dismiss the Wood.  They walked early at 50 and change and then almost 1:15 and closers still dominated. There were 8 horses lined up passing the 1/8th pole which typically means a bunch of average horses. 

Rock Your World could win easily or finish 6th.  Wouldn't  say the same for Known Agenda.  I think his style gets him in the exacta.  First run on the RYW and/or Hot Rod Charlie and it's just a matter of who's better.  One of those 3 wins.  Then O Besos closing.  I'll probably play big exactas keying Known Agenda to the two speed types and a bunch of different exotics with O Besos in there.

It's only Monday - lot can happen.  But that's my early call after watching preps and works.

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Judge Smails said:

First of all, so good to have you back, OTB.  You make this thread interesting every year.  And you bring out the best in other posters as well.  

I was sort of down on this Derby, until I started reading Clocker reports from Mike Welsch.  They have been such a part of my Derby wagering strategy and success over the years.  When he says a horse is working phenomenally well or looks the best in the field I have often bet with both fists.  Street Sense, Always Dreaming, Orb and others. I also RUN from horses who put in average works in their final work.  I also traditionally hate the Blue Grass as a prep.  4 weeks is not ideal, and it's a horses for courses track more than others.  EQ and Highly Motivated not only come out of a prep I don't like, they battled to the wire in a tough race after setting a soft pace up front going easy.  EQ had a funky motion late, sort of lugging out and his legs flying out.  Then in their final work they both struggled, finishing behind their workmates.  I hate that.  You have to draw away from those horses with ease.  I think both are over the top so my main strategy is to toss both.  I am with OTB on both Rock Your World and O Besos being extra live.  A lot depends on the draw but if RYW breaks clean he should get the most comfortable trip.  He drew off with authority in the SA Derby and is still progressing.  My only pause is Sadler has done nothing in the Derby.  And he's had good 3 year olds.  (I hope you all saw Flightline's race this weekend - WOW).  Rosario on is the right call.

I can't fault Known Agenda's race in the Florida Derby at all.  The kind I like to see.  Professional.  Stayed on the rail and showed he can rate inside of horses easily.  Irad was patient, then eased out, went around the front runners and won going away.  Looks like 1 1/4 is within reach.  And looks pushbutton.  If RYW doesn't fire for whatever reason this is the horse to beat.  Doesn't need the lead.  Hard to see him not contending turning for home.

Pretty game win by Hot Rod Charlie in the LA Derby. Like the fact that he was basically shown the whip twice in the stretch and was game pulling away at the end with a hand ride.  O'Neill has a better track record in the Derby than Sadler though I don't think this horse is as talented as I'll Have Another or Nyquist.  He'll be right there turning for home. After that I don't know.

O Besos looks like a very live closer and the workout report was sensational.  Can't fault Super Stock either.  Like Known Agenda looked very professional rating.  Similar race but not quite as impressive to me. But could see clunking up in the exotics picture.

Like I do every year I have to dismiss the Wood.  They walked early at 50 and change and then almost 1:15 and closers still dominated. There were 8 horses lined up passing the 1/8th pole which typically means a bunch of average horses. 

Rock Your World could win easily or finish 6th.  Wouldn't  say the same for Known Agenda.  I think his style gets him in the exacta.  First run on the RYW and/or Hot Rod Charlie and it's just a matter of who's better.  One of those 3 wins.  Then O Besos closing.  I'll probably play big exactas keying Known Agenda to the two speed types and a bunch of different exotics with O Besos in there.

It's only Monday - lot can happen.  But that's my early call after watching preps and works.

thanks for the kind words. 

just fantastic stuff here, Judge - always look forward to your contributions ... one can't break the race down any better than this ‚úƬ†

i had mentioned a week or so ago that it was gonna be awfully hard not to use Known Agenda as my key ... i was on a high watching Irad masterfully take down the Apple Blossom over 2 better horses (Monomoy Girl, Swiss Skydiver) ... his piloting of Letruska in the stretch, after getting eyeballed and passed by MG, was textbook dig down. cashed me a decent double up tri for his efforts (put him on top).

he's riding gangbusters these days, have considered him best in the gig for awhile ... putting him on that horse (Known Agenda) is one of those tipping points when confronted with making a call. 

at that time it hadn't been confirmed that Caddooo was running, who i thought would press a pace up top with RYW much more urgently than Concert Tour ... once i saw Caddooo in, i drifted to O Besos as the key that could upend the verticals - hoping that we got a complete meltdown, with OB picking up many pieces to possibly crash as high as top of ticket. 

with Caddooo's defection, we are left with Soup & Sammy and possibly the lone Baffert (Medina Spirit) to hustle RYW to perhaps expending far too much early on ... but the former has had quizzical works at Churchill (Welsch has been head scratching), and last time out the latter was treated to a gorgeous view of RYW's rear the whole way around, and never challenging a decent lick. 

breaks now as RYW being able to get out there comfortably ... don't think the other two are anything for them to worry about sneaking away - i cannot see RYW any worse than 2nd hitting top of the stretch, and if he draws well, i gotta believe he'll be in the lead as we hit the straightaway.

so i'm not really seeing suicidals early on that are gonna wipe the second tier out, as well ... still love O Besos for all the reasons i mentioned in my earlier post about him, but it's gonna be  harder for him to spring the upset now ... it will help economize my ticket if i decide to use him in 2nd/3rd/4th.

Welsch had been ragging those 2 Blue Grass survivors for a few days, yeah ... he thinks they left too much at Keeneland.  works are telling him things. 

Hot Rod Chuck is too damn honest not to consider - don't think he can stay close to RYW if he gets out unbothered like the S.A. Derby, though ... so much is gonna depend on how this cat draws. 

RYW backers need to see him anywhere from the 7-16 hole, imo ... now, if RYW gets an adverse draw, and we get Medina Spirit and Soup & Sammy with great posts, then that's the perfect setup for O Besos blowing it up - best thing about OB is that his running style will not be hampered a bit by his draw. 

but if RYW draws a clean post, with the other early speed compromised, well - i think he'll wire 'em.  

 i will be otherwise engaged this morning at a dad/daughter event at my kid's school - 10 'til 1 - we have been asked not to be preoccupied with our mobile devices - gonna miss the draw - @Leroy Hoard & @Cowboysfan8 usually had the live draw updates in years past, iirc. 

let's gooooo! 

:deadhorse:

 

Edited by otb_lifer
SpElLiNk
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9 hours ago, Ron Swanson said:

I was excited he was on RTW, then my happiness got crushed.  Wikkid should be happy tho.

i get why they made the switch, but it would've been the mount of a lifetime for the guy - will be pulling for Brooky to make some noise, and hoping to squeeze him in on my tix - we'll see after the draw. 

 

 

 

(draw, shmaw - i'll find a way ūüėĀ)

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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Somewhat OFFICIAL Road To The 2021 Kentucky*** Stick It Anywhere But The 1 Hole - It's Derby Draw Tuesday! ūüźé (Missing GB MoCS)
2 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

 

 i will be tied this morning at a dad/daughter event at my kid's school - 10 'til 1 - we have been asked not to be preoccupied with our mobile devices - gonna miss the draw - @Leroy Hoard & @Cowboysfan8 usually had the live draw updates in years past, iirc. 

let's gooooo! 

:deadhorse:

 

I will try to get the draw results posted by noon Eastern. 

Great write ups by both the judge & otb btw.

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3 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

thanks for the kind words. 

just fantastic stuff here, Judge - always look forward to your contributions ... one can't break the race down any better than this ‚úƬ†

i had mentioned a week or so ago that it was gonna be awfully hard not to use Known Agenda as my key ... i was on a high watching Irad masterfully take down the Apple Blossom over 2 better horses (Monomoy Girl, Swiss Skydiver) ... his piloting of Letruska in the stretch, after getting eyeballed and passed by MG, was textbook dig down. cashed me a decent double up tri for his efforts (put him on top).

he's riding gangbusters these days, have considered him best in the gig for awhile ... putting him on that horse (Known Agenda) is one of those tipping points when confronted with making a call. 

at that time it hadn't been confirmed that Caddooo was running, who i thought would press a pace up top with RYW much more urgently than Concert Tour ... once i saw Caddooo in, i drifted to O Besos as the key that could upend the verticals - hoping that we got a complete meltdown, with OB picking up many pieces to possibly crash as high as top of ticket. 

with Caddooo's defection, we are left with Soup & Sammy and possibly the lone Baffert (Medina Spirit) to hustle RYW to perhaps expending far too much early on ... but the former has had quizzical works at Churchill (Welsch has been head scratching), and last time out the latter was treated to a gorgeous view of RYW's rear the whole way around, and never challenging a decent lick. 

breaks now as RYW being able to get out there comfortably ... don't think the other two are anything for them to worry about sneaking away - i cannot see RYW any worse than 2nd hitting top of the stretch, and if he draws well, i gotta believe he'll be in the lead as we hit the straightaway.

so i'm not really seeing suicidals early on that are gonna wipe the second tier out, as well ... still love O Besos for all the reasons i mentioned in my earlier post about him, but it's gonna be  harder for him to spring the upset now ... it will help economize my ticket if i decide to use him solely in 2nd/3rd/4th.

Welsch had been ragging those 2 Blue Grass survivors for a few days, yeah ... he thinks they left too much at Keeneland.  works are telling him things. 

Hot Rod Chuck is too damn honest not to consider - don't think he can stay close to RYW if he gets out unbothered like the S.A. Derby, though ... so much is gonna depend on how this cat draws. 

RYW backers need to see him anywhere from the 7-16 hole, imo ... now, if RYW gets an adverse draw, and we get Medina Spirit and Soup & Sammy with great posts, then that's the perfect setup for O Besos blowing it up - best thing about OB is that his running style will not be hampered a bit by his draw. 

but if RYW draws a clean post, with the other early speed compromised, well - i think he'll wire 'em.  

 i will be otherwise engaged this morning at a dad/daughter event at my kid's school - 10 'til 1 - we have been asked not to be preoccupied with our mobile devices - gonna miss the draw - @Leroy Hoard & @Cowboysfan8 usually had the live draw updates in years past, iirc. 

let's gooooo! 

:deadhorse:

 

I haven‚Äôt been keeping up with anything except this thread (which I‚Äôm loving) this week. I‚Äôm in Cancun. I might be able to watch the draw on my phone ūü§Ē

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2 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

I haven‚Äôt been keeping up with anything except this thread (which I‚Äôm loving) this week. I‚Äôm in Cancun. I might be able to watch the draw on my phone ūü§Ē

Margaritas or Juleps today? 

:banned:

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4 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

ūü§Ē

the frozen mango margaritas are hard to beat on the beach. 

Ive never had a julep. Might have to try one ūüėÉ

... not for nuttin', Cowboy - but a Julep prepared by a novice mixologist is no bueno!

they tend to overwork the sugar to the point of liquid Pixie Stick nausea - one saving grace in your sitch is that i'm sure the mint down there is fresh, what with Mojitos being a popular order in your locale. 

ūüćĻ

(go for the Mint!)

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EQ'S slow work concerns me but he's grey so that negates the slow work.  Soup and Sandwich is also grey so will figure in my combos as well.  Need the colorage figures on the other horses before settling in on my choices.

-QG

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4 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

... not for nuttin', Cowboy - but a Julep prepared by a novice mixologist is no bueno!

they tend to overwork the sugar to the point of liquid Pixie Stick nausea - one saving grace in your sitch is that i'm sure the mint down there is fresh, what with Mojitos being a popular order in your locale. 

ūüćĻ

(go for the Mint!)

Run with the champs, get it spoken like the champs.

This post was bueno indeed. Mint juleps, done wrong, are all sugar and what that entails.

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10 minutes ago, QuizGuy66 said:

EQ'S slow work concerns me but he's grey so that negates the slow work.  Soup and Sandwich is also grey so will figure in my combos as well.  Need the colorage figures on the other horses before settling in on my choices.

-QG

:deadhorse:

the Meadowlands used to run the flats in the fall ... centerpiece of the meet for me was "The Galloping Ghost", which would run on Halloween weekends ... nothin' but greys and roans in that race - was an absolute thing of beauty ūü§ė

 

SEE YOU ALL THIS AFTERNOON, UBER UNDERWAY. 

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20 minutes ago, QuizGuy66 said:

EQ'S slow work concerns me but he's grey so that negates the slow work.  Soup and Sandwich is also grey so will figure in my combos as well.  Need the colorage figures on the other horses before settling in on my choices.

-QG

I know a lady that usually goes with the greys and seems to do better than many.

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A bit off topic but you been back to any tracks in the area OTB?  I like to go bet at the Meadowlands or Monmouth (and it keeps me from having another degen apo on my phone) but I think even with the distancing I don't wanna be around that many people just yet even vaxxed.  Maybe I take a quick trip just to the window on Friday night :)

-QG

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32 minutes ago, QuizGuy66 said:

A bit off topic but you been back to any tracks in the area OTB?  I like to go bet at the Meadowlands or Monmouth (and it keeps me from having another degen apo on my phone) but I think even with the distancing I don't wanna be around that many people just yet even vaxxed.  Maybe I take a quick trip just to the window on Friday night :)

-QG

I use the Twinspires website on my chromebook and then cast the races to my bar TV. It has been awesome during the last year.   Even though my wife and I were married at a horsetrack we have only ever been occasional betters but it has been a great diversion for both of us and a nice way to meander through an afternoon.

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Bourbonic - 20

Rock Your World - 15

Hidden Stash - 13

Brooklyn Strong - 3

Like the King - 2

Midnight Bourbon - 10

Medina Spirit - 8

Keep Me In Mind - 4

Super Stock - 18

Dynamic One - 11

Sainthood - 5

Hot Rod Charlie - 9

Helium - 12

Soup and Sandwich - 19

Mandaloun = 7

Highly Motivated - 17

O Besos - 6

Known Agenda - 1

Essential Quality - 14

King Fury - 16

Edited by Ron Swanson
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Great draw for Rock your World at 15.  Hot Rod Charlie good at 9 as well.  But not ideal with Rock your World outside of him.  O Besos 6. Save ground.  Nice.  Known Agenda 1.  ####

Edited by Judge Smails
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Post positionHorseOdds

1 Known Agenda 6-1

2 Like The King 50-1

3 Brooklyn Strong 50-1

4 Keepmeinmind 50-1

5 Sainthood 50-1

6 O Besos 20-1

7 Mandaloun 15-1

8 Medina Spirit 15-1

9 Hot Rod Charlie 8-1

10 Midnight Bourbon 20-1

11 Dynamic One 20-1

12 Helium 50-1

13 Hidden Stash 50-1

14 Essential Quality 2-1

15 Rock Your World 5-1

16 King Fur y20-1

17 Highly Motivated 10-1

18 Super Stock 30-1

19 Soup And Sandwich 30-1

20 Bourbonic 30-1

Edited by Leroy Hoard
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2 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

I only bought the mint juleps for the free glass.

So did Sylvia Plath before that run-in with the oven.

Was that too crass? Is it too soon?

Ach du, ach du. I'll chuff away, then.

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Drf.com:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. ‚Äď Essential Quality was assigned post 14 in a full gate of 20 3-year-olds set to race Saturday in the 147th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

Essential Quality will have Luis Saez aboard as the 2-1 morning-line favorite for the 1 1/4-mile race. The undefeated Godolphin homebred colt will be looking to become just the third 2-year-old champion in more than 40 years to win the Derby, following Street Sense (2007) and Nyquist (2016).

Trainer Brad Cox said at the Tuesday post-position draw at the track that he was happy with post 14. ‚ÄúYou like to be somewhere in the middle, where you‚Äôre comfortable, and go from there,‚ÄĚ he said.

Post time for the Derby, the 12th of 14 Saturday races, is 6:57 p.m. Eastern. NBC will provide extensive live coverage of the famed Run for the Roses starting at 2:30.

A fast track is expected for Saturday, with sunshine and a daytime high of 73 in the local forecast.

One of the other Derby favorites, Known Agenda (6-1), was assigned post 1 with the three-time reigning Eclipse champion jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., named to ride. No Derby winner has left from post 1 since Ferdinand in 1986.

Perhaps worth noting is that this will be the second year for a 20-stall, 65-foot starting gate. It’s a gate that Churchill custom-ordered from Australia and first used last year to alleviate problems inherent with linking together a standard 14-stall gate with a six-stall auxiliary gate.

‚ÄúI think there‚Äôs a little less concern now (about post 1) with the new starting gate, where you actually have room to go somewhere into the first turn,‚ÄĚ said Todd Pletcher, a two-time prior winner who has Known Agenda, the Florida Derby winner, as one of four starters in this year‚Äôs running, along with Sainthood (post 5), Dynamic One (post 11), and Bourbonic (post 20).

‚ÄúBut you do risk the potential of getting shuffled way back. I was happy with the way (Known Agenda) ran in the Florida Derby, where he was inside when he got up into the first turn and backside, and he was able to advance and improve his position and showed he can handle being inside.‚ÄĚ The one-hole is ‚Äújust less than an ideal place to start.‚ÄĚ

Besides Essential Quality, a winner in all five starts, two other unbeaten colts also are in the field ‚Äď Rock Your World (post 15) and Helium (post 12), both 3 for 3. Justify (2018) and Nyquist were the latest horses to win the Derby while still undefeated.

Rock Your World, with Joel Rosario riding, is the 5-1 second choice and one of the expected front-runners after going wire-to-wire in winning the Santa Anita Derby in his last start.

‚ÄúIt was a good draw for us,‚ÄĚ said his trainer, John Sadler. ‚ÄúI think we wanted to be outside; that‚Äôs usually where you have a little clearer trip. So, he‚Äôs got tactical speed; we‚Äôll see how it shakes out, but overall, we‚Äôre pleased with the draw.‚ÄĚ

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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Official 2021 Belmont Stakes Thread*** Zahzeetch Fest At Big Sandy - Mal Sits It Out ūüźé (Missing GB MoCS)
  • otb_lifer changed the title to It's All About Spa-Mar (DelaToga?) Now Featuring Degen Bullrings For Your Disposable Income & Derision ūüźé (Missing GB MoCS)

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