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It's All About Spa-Mar (DelaToga?) Now Featuring Degen Bullrings For Your Disposable Income & Derision 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)


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Happy Derby Eve! I hear this is the magical night when the Derby Fairy brings everybody perfect mint juleps that bestow upon the recipient that perfect fugue-like state of dreaming whereby one wakes at seven in the morning, fresh and ready to conquer the world, ready for a day of wheelbarrows of cash hauled away from various sunlit windows.

Beware, though, I've heard that her nefarious and evil sister, Queen Peta, tries to sneak in and sweeten them with stevia when her back is turned. Hope you guys don't catch those. You wake up at eleven, pissy and late for everything, five o'clock shadow sans whiskers already caked on your face just from livin', cranky and irritable. 

Sort of like otb every morning. 

tra la lol

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Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, eoMMan said:

For a newbie, is it best to just pick a few horses to WIN?

Is it even worth farting around with placing and what not?

depends on your budget, horse(s) you're gonna bet, etc. 

place and show totes can be bountiful tomorrow if the favorites run out the money ...even keeping 2 of the top 3 off the board is usually gonna yield nicely for the longer priced horses who clunk up - and if all 3 miss, yeah - good times. 

the place & show dough does not always reflect the win favorites, but it doesn't usually deviate too far off. 

they are a total mystery 'til announced, whereas you'll know your "win" payout before you place the bet (a 20-1 winner is gonna pay $42 and change no matter what).

i only play the verticals - 80% of my budget will go to my trifecta wager, so i'm not that keen on playing the w/p/s gig - last one i plunked was Steppenwolfer in '06. 

ETA: PLAY TO WIN - IT'S THE ####### DERBY! 

:banned:

Edited by otb_lifer
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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Bored Certified 2021 Kentucky Derby Thread*** Live Odds Ticker In OP/King Fury OUT 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)

first wager in:

going Route 66 for the Oaks/Derby - yes, i like O Besos at his price with Travel Column. 

not usually a fan of betting this double, but if i love an Oaks filly coupled with an intriguing Derby longy, well ... there ya go. 

 

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1 hour ago, otb_lifer said:

first wager in:

going Route 66 for the Oaks/Derby - yes, i like O Besos at his price with Travel Column. 

not usually a fan of betting this double, but if i love an Oaks filly coupled with an intriguing Derby longy, well ... there ya go. 

 

Sorry for the dumb question: any idea how a guy would enter that, if that guy was perhaps using an online sports book?  I don't see a way to parlay, and the only "heading" that's close is Daily Double but obviously not it.

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20 minutes ago, facook said:

Sorry for the dumb question: any idea how a guy would enter that, if that guy was perhaps using an online sports book?  I don't see a way to parlay, and the only "heading" that's close is Daily Double but obviously not it.

the wager table for the Oaks gotta have it 

which book?

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On 4/29/2021 at 1:04 PM, wikkidpissah said:

wikkid's Derby pix (first in?):

 

well, i've thought about it long & hard, and i just gotta go with the undefeated horse:

 

1- Helium

2 - Rock Your World

3 - Essential Quality

4 - Brooklyn Strong

Do you pick them based on their names?

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21 minutes ago, Chaz McNulty said:

Do you pick them based on their names?

well, it's a little more sophisticated than that. i gather many pillows and my two corgis around me upon my day bed, have the post positions read to me in a Punjabi accent while i sniff one end of one corgi and the other end of the other until i sense what can only be called a synesthetic aura around each name until i see aquamarine. i usually pass out after my revelation and determine the amount i bet by the volume of bodily secretions i've committed to my dogs & pillows while i was unconscious. science!

Edited by wikkidpissah
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2 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

if the Oaks portends the Derby:

Travel Column = RYW/Medina/Soupy/Midnight Bourbon

Search Results = HRC, KA, possibly Highly Motivated.

Malathaat = EQ.

... if form follows. 

 

i hope not.

 

You think EQ is as potentially dominant as Mal?  I see EQ as a significantly more vulnerable favorite.

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Just now, Ron Swanson said:

You think EQ is as potentially dominant as Mal?  I see EQ as a significantly more vulnerable favorite.

wouldn't necessarily call Mal's win today dominant - Search Results eyeballed her pretty damn good, slight bumping & jostling ... thought Irad got clipped by Johnny V's stick once or twice. 

the stretch battle today was reminiscent of EQ/HRC in the Juvey, and EQ/HM in the Blue Grass. 

my point about the Oaks was that Travel Column represented the speed/pace horses, Search Results repping the stalkers ... and Mal showing up as the favorite - top in class. 

was just drawing a "what if" parallel - function following form, if you will. 

- very legit chance it plays out as such tomorrow - but i'm still holding out for O Besos making a late run ... think the Derby pace is gonna be a bit hotter than the Oaks - they went ok enough on the front (:23/:47) - i expect Soupy & MS to press a bit harder, with RYW and Midnight B in that mix as well.  it could be very hot ... it's what i anticipate, and it's how i'll build my ticket. 

an honest pace just ain't gettin' it done for me.  

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$5 ATB on #1

$2 ATB on #6

$2 ATB on #14

$1 Ex Box 1/6/9/14/19

$0.50 Tri Box 1/6/9/14/19

$77

Had to have the grey horses in there. 

Moment I saw the discussion hear bemoaning the draw for #1 horse I peeked a little more - and noted the jockey and thought Ferdinand scenario (and note the discussion here that there isn't likely to be quick fire outs right next to him).  Gut tella me it's a good spot.

:deadhorse:

-QG

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1 hour ago, QuizGuy66 said:

$5 ATB on #1

$2 ATB on #6

$2 ATB on #14

$1 Ex Box 1/6/9/14/19

$0.50 Tri Box 1/6/9/14/19

$77

Had to have the grey horses in there. 

Moment I saw the discussion hear bemoaning the draw for #1 horse I peeked a little more - and noted the jockey and thought Ferdinand scenario (and note the discussion here that there isn't likely to be quick fire outs right next to him).  Gut tella me it's a good spot.

:deadhorse:

-QG

Irad is one of the best jocks around and I'm sure Todd Pletcher has at least some confidence in him to make the best of it. We still need some luck with that 19 horse field.

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6 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

RYW is definitely the people's choice thus far - 500k of EQ came from one bettor.

:deadhorse:

I swear RYW was the slight overall favorite early in the day. A million rolls of pennies on EQ make a big difference.

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3 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

I swear RYW was the slight overall favorite early in the day. A million rolls of pennies on EQ make a big difference.

Chuckie's taking second most public money.

it's very early, but trends are interesting ... KA is being neglected into tremendous value status (currently 16-1).

could see final odds of 9/5 on EQ (guy's supposedly dropping more ... who knows), 7/2 on RYW, 6/1 on HRC, 10/1 on KA, 14/1 on HM.

 

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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Bored Certified 2021 Kentucky Derby Thread*** DERBY DAY!/Live Odds Ticker In OP 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)

too early to be drinking?

yeah. 

so i'll let this ditty set the tone 

 

plan is to use O Besos as key - will be waiting as long as i possibly can to gauge track bias, weather (was windy as #### there yesterday), etc. 

RYW, HRC, Sainthood, KA, EQ, Bourbonic, Keepmeinmind, Dynamic One, HM are all under serious consideration to be used along with the OB key as of right now - the day's developments will help dictate the pare down, and/or pivot. 

looking for some legit underneath bingo ... i will stand on the pace collapsing, with RYW being last of that early lot to survive the stretch - and if he also falters, then the chances of a clunk up fest increase nicely enough - gotta follow the gut. 

i anticipated bombs and cloud drops, and i am gonna play it as such. 

glllllllll and pease to all!

 

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Posted (edited)

looking at a couple here that i consider to be live closers, and who aren't getting much attention - but have won spots on my tix:

keep going back to that BC Juvey,and Keepmeinmind with the late charge on EQ & HRC. 

obviously a very key race, as the top 2 moved forward to huge final prep wins. 

he returned to take his next out, the KJGC, with a crisp last to first rally in the stretch. 

made his '21 debut in the Rebel, which was a demolition derby coming home ... 6th for that one, and then a lethargic 5th in the Blue Grass ... nothing in the stretch to speak of (no urging whatsoever).

but here we are 3rd start in his 3yo cycle, coming off the best 4f work of the field (46.2) - he's sharp coming in, looking good in the mornings. 

tough to ignore underneath if this thing goes the way i hope to see - he's in. 

Sainthood was damn near impugned to a full stop in the Jeff Ruby ... ducked and darted and found a path after a near impossible kerfuffle to recover from (reminiscent of Lookin' at Lee's Arky from a few years ago) ... was FLYING home, and easily would've dusted Like the King had the trip just merely been awful, rather than horrific. 

Corey Lanerie is the jock for the course ... he knows Churchill as well as any rider - Pletcher trained, this is another who can pop those vertical totes if the glamour guys up front fry each other's tails off. 

if i'm using O Besos in anticipation of pace chaos, then i gotta chuck these 2 in as well.  

win possibilities are surely slimmer for both than O Besos, but underneath is looking very good from a wagering standpoint. 

and we have them all breaking together, which i think serves the trio extremely well - #4 Keepmeinmind, #5 Sainthood, #6 O Besos. 

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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once again, thx for bringing the essence of First Saturday in May - dreams AND self-interest - into focus for us, boyo. best week of the year - Derby and draft -  for our brand of dreamer, especially with our dark year mostly in the rearview. good luck @otb_lifer, good luck, everybody!!

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4 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Has anyone seen any races today to see how the track is playing?

just getting back from a long lunch - no access to the races thus far.  

anyone?

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40 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Has anyone seen any races today to see how the track is playing?

welp, that Pat Day Mile sure just showed that a blistering pace can be expected - 

 

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i watched an earlier race, once around. track looked sealed, as Churchill often is on wet weeks, but old friend Smiley Sobotka faded just when he was supposed to and the rail did not prop the other speed up either. pretty even - neither cuppy nor hard/grooved, in that one

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5 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

welp, that Pat Day Mile sure just showed that a blistering pace can be expected - 

 

Yeah. Looks real fast from the couple I've seen.  5 & 8.

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38 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Just watched the replay 

They were cookin

if it holds, this plays right into RYW's hands ... tack on the extra distance, and we're gonna see some darlings backing up come that last gasp furlong 

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5 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

if it holds, this plays right into RYW's hands ... tack on the extra distance, and we're gonna see some darlings backing up come that last gasp furlong 

You putting in EQ in any of your wagers?

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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Official 2021 Belmont Stakes Thread*** Zahzeetch Fest At Big Sandy - Mal Sits It Out 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)
  • otb_lifer changed the title to It's All About Spa-Mar (DelaToga?) Now Featuring Degen Bullrings For Your Disposable Income & Derision 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)

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