QuizGuy66
Footballguy
We can all agree that when we open FBG Stables this will be the name of our first shooter, right?QuizGuy66 said:Tainted piss hay
-QG
We can all agree that when we open FBG Stables this will be the name of our first shooter, right?QuizGuy66 said:Tainted piss hay
18/1 and 20/1 online.otb_lifer said:ironically enough, it's his other horse, Concert Tour, that can best get out and put MS in the dust.
dunno if Midnight Bourbon is gonna wanna suicide out that first 1/2, but he'll definitely be on their asses.
this sets up as a perfect scenario for Keepmeinmind.
i've taken a cursory glance at the new shooters ... nothing too flashy to get excited about - would not be surprised to see MS go off in the 4/5 range - lest a ton ignore him under the impression that he'll falter without his "MAGIC OATS!"Medina Spirit #3, 9-5
yep, i'll be playing him (Keepmeinmind) from every angle imaginable - will be better pace setup than the Derby, less traffic to deal with ... front speed bias was holding on the Churchill track that day - i'm backing this one for sure.18/1 and 20/1 online.
Rombo would be the luckiest possible drop. failing that, i'd have to take the Japanese horse simply because this is a bad crop with the best here all having the same running styleI drew the 7th spot in terms of choosing horses in a 10 person pool. All the chalks should be gone, besides the #2 are there any other longshots who stand a fighters chance? Something tells me the #2 will be gone by the time I get to pick.
... and the 2 horses who will likely dictate the pace are coming out the same barn - would love to see Midnight Bourbon sent to rattle the Baffert master plan, because you know he's not gonna have Smiffy & Johnny V go any faster than they need to, in terms of running 1-2 for as long as they can.Rombo would be the luckiest possible drop. failing that, i'd have to take the Japanese horse simply because this is a bad crop with the best here all having the same running style
So far I got a list including the 6-2-7. One of them has to still be there, thanks for the longies guys.I drew the 7th spot in terms of choosing horses in a 10 person pool. All the chalks should be gone, besides the #2 are there any other longshots who stand a fighters chance? Something tells me the #2 will be gone by the time I get to pick.
these 5:Have the PP’s. Don’t think it’s a good betting race at all but will throw thoughts out there. Maybe some of you have a better read than I do
my thoughts on three of these in boldedI'll give it a go..
2 - Keep me in mind - I dunno. Had races as a 2 year old that would get him in contention but his Rebel and Blue Grass efforts were hideous. Did run a little faster when wide in the Derby. Pretty good middle move but then flattened. Never got closer than 6 1/2 lengths and mainly toiled 9-13 lengths back. Not the kind of horse I usually get excited about. 6% trainer in graded stakes.
he has run sideways as a 3 yr old ... mixed in with some top class, but really hasn't taken the leap forward his 2 yr old form portended - i'm firing one last bullet with him in all tix here, though - trainer says he's never looked stronger. will need a hotter pace than 2 weeks ago, but that may be difficult if the 2 Bafferts have their way.
5) Midnight Bourbon - Huge threat with the move to Ortiz. I just don't think Mike Smith is riding well and it sure was an iffy ride in the Derby. Should be in the top flight with Medina Spirit and Concert Tour. One horse player I respect said this horse cannot pass another horse. So if he locks up with Medina Spirit he might just follow him to the wire.
looking back at his Lecomte win, it was pretty much identical to MS in the Derby ... didn't necessarily want the lead, but it was bequeathed, and he ran with it - very modest fractions, though - he was able to ration on the engine, and turned back both Proxy (who was serious Derby fodder coming in), and Mandaloun. that Fairgrounds crop were undoubtedly the cream of the regional groups, and i gotta take a stab with him as best bet to upend Baffert ... i keep going back to the Apple Blossom, where Irad gunned Letruska out over both Swiss Skydiver and Monomoy Girl, then held on to upset those two superior horses. biggest hope is that Asmussen instructs him to do likewise here - as you pointed out he doesn't pass horses ... but neither do MS or CT - we got 3 legit front-running/need the leads.
10) Concert Tour - The ultimate wild card. Million dollar question is did Baffert take Rosario off or did Rosario choose the Japanese horse. Don't love Smith these days as I said. But Baffert's barn like the way he was working and any of the 3 previous races before the Arkansas Derby dud would make him the favorite. No explanation for that dud though.
getting very close to an outright toss for me with this one - only path is the hustle out the 10, while his 2 main foes are set up for easier paths to front running glory ... nothing i've seen outta this cat shows me any reason to bank on resiliency - his rating in the Arky was atrocious, seeing as how he grabbed the lead from Caddooo, but then ceded to Super Stock, only to get outkicked for place by a horse (Caddooo) he had just seemingly buried.
Good stuff. I just don't know why Baffert would run Concert Tour unless he was doing really well. Or, could he be insurance in case MS is forced to scratch? If not CT scratches?my thoughts on three of these in bolded
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as much as i lean to toss him, the ticket will be economical enough to not exclude him, getting bit in the ### again by neglecting a primed BB entry is not gonna sit well. as i said, i'm inching closer to an outright toss, if i pull the trigger it will be made at the window.Good stuff. I just don't know why Baffert would run Concert Tour unless he was doing really well. Or, could he be insurance in case MS is forced to scratch? If not CT scratches?
Exactly, BB's penance should be to at least show up with the two favorites. Whether they do well or not is a different story.as much as i lean to toss him, the ticket will be economical enough to not exclude him, getting bit in the ### again by neglecting a primed BB entry is not gonna sit well. as i said, i'm inching closer to an outright toss, if i pull the trigger it will be made at the window.
- but i will be keying MB in the final analysis - ton of faith in Irad amongst this field, might be the ooomph! Asmussen needs to take the ballsy approach of getting out in front, lest he merry go rounds like he did behind Chuck in the La. Derby ... in which case he'll board, but the spoils will be meager if it's the two favorites with him.
as far as MS scratch ... that's something i had not considered - in that scenario i could easily see MB putting the wood to CT from jump - his break from the 5 will surely fold to the rail if he wants it - dunno how Lukas is gonna handle Ram's strategy, but this ain't Oxbow, and it ain't gonna be raining ... don't think he'll pose much of a worry early on, but who knows.
i don't think we'll hear anything about MS 'til he's effectively eliminated from the TC - cannot see them DQ'ng from the Derby win on the eve of the Preakness - would be suicidal to the event.
the 2 favorites may show up, but ol' Silver Bullet Bob is probably not gonna ship himself - he's likely to sit this one out.Exactly, BB's penance should be to at least show up with the two favorites. Whether they do well or not is a different story.
Interesting article about the state of racing in 1968.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2018/05/03/dancers-image-drugs-and-mlk-the-enduring-mystery-of-the-1968-kentucky-derby/?
Dancer’s Image, drugs and MLK: The enduring mystery of the 1968 Kentucky Derbysubscriber wall for me
I was able to read itJust to be clear, I am also not a subscriber, so that was a free article I copied with full credit in the previous post
Leroy, can you please link to the pp page like you did for the Derby?Just to be clear, I am also not a subscriber, so that was a free article I copied with full credit in the previous post
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htmLeroy, can you please link to the pp page like you did for the Derby?
Thank you!http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT_BOB/9999/summary.htm
Also includes the big Friday filly race.
not gonna happen.Any chance KeepMeInMind gets a good start inside of Medina Spirit...
and then just hangs with him stride for stride for the distance?
... i'll toss this in, from Shifman - no love for Keepmeinmind here:This is how horse racing nation has them. They like OTB Lifer's horse...
1. Concert Tour (#10, 5-2): He is the only horse in this field who has shown the raw talent to compete with his stablemate. His Rebel (G2) victory was visually impressive, and his connections learned how he needs to be ridden after his Arkansas Derby disappointment. This fresh colt will wing it on the front and will take running down.
2. Keepmeinmind (#2, 15-1): This colt ran an underrated race in the Derby after breaking slowly and going very wide turning for home. Not many horses were closing well as many of the Derby front-runners were in the thick of it throughout. He was among the best in the division as a 2-year-old and after going off form prior to the Derby, he looks to have snapped back to his best after removing the blinkers. He will get plenty of pace to run into in the Preakness.
3. Medina Spirit (#3, 9-5): There is no doubting the strong credentials and consistency of the Derby winner, but he will concede the lead to Concert Tour and will be forced to chase his hot early pace in this spot. He will likely show his usual grit but could come up a bit short as the center of attention on Saturday.
4. Midnight Bourbon (#5, 5-1): This consistent colt ran admirably in the Derby after finding himself farther off the pace than usual. The race flow will work against him in here, but he always shows up with a commendable effort.
5. Crowded Trade (#4, 10-1): Speed Figure players will gravitate toward this runner as his 104 career high Brisnet Ranking is the best in the field. He will receive a good pace setup, but it is hard to trust a runner coming out of the woefully slow New York 3-year-old circuit.
6. Rombauer (#6, 12-1): Michael McCarthy's colt has been keeping good company, but he has yet to be truly competitive while facing the elite from his crop. He is likely to give an honest performance but does not appear fast enough to gain a slice.
7. Ram (#1, 30-1): D. Wayne Lukas knows how to get a colt ready for the Preakness, and this improving son of American Pharoah looked good defeating older last time out. He still would have to take a giant step forward to compete at this class level, however.
8. Risk Taking (#9, 15-1): Chad Brown's colt looked like he was figuring things out with blinkers prior to an awful showing in the weak Wood Memorial. He is hard to endorse off such a poor effort and is yet to crack the 90 range on the Beyer Speed Figure scale.
9. France Go de Ina (#7, 20-1): He may be a useful colt, but this is a big step up in class and he has proven to be at his best near the lead. He will face plenty of pace pressure and will be hard pressed to hang around late.
10. Unbridled Honor (#8, 15-1): He was helped by a perfect race flow in the Lexington (G3) but still could not win when earning a high figure in the slop. Prior to that effort he was a distant 4th in a weak edition of the Tampa Bay Derby (G2).
surprised about the settlement noted - figured there already has to be a ton of case law out there saying these bettors are SOL
well, in terms of recouping any coin from their official bets on the Derby, they are SOL - that ship sails once the race is deemed "official" -surprised about the settlement noted - figured there already has to be a ton of case law out there saying these bettors are SOL
-QG
Pretty much exactly how I see it. I think the exacta box is Midnight Bourbon (Asmussen very confident) with both of the Baffert runners (strong lean on MS being the one) and then one of the longshots underneath. Hoping it's Rombauer... i'll toss this in, from Shifman - no love for Keepmeinmind here:
1. Ram (30-1 – American Pharoah – D. Wayne Lukas / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 4: 1-1-1 - $107,380) His Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas loves running in the Preakness, a race he has won five times, most recently in 2013 with Oxbow. Ram won his last two starts: a $50,000 maiden claiming score at Oaklawn Park and then an allowance victory at Churchill Downs going a one-turn mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard. This will be his first try in a stakes race. Toss.
2. Keepmeinmind (15-1 – Laoban – Robertino Diodoro / David Cohen – 7: 1-2-1 - $424,987) This colt's 3-year-old season has been a stark contrast to his juvenile campaign. Last year, he was in contention in all four starts including a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). This year in three races, Keepmeinmind has not been a threat to win or even hit the board. In the Derby, he was last early, made up some ground, and then passed tired horses without really gaining ground on the top three. Toss.
3. Medina Spirit (9-5 – Protonico – Bob Baffert / John Velazquez – 6: 3-3-0 - $2,175,200) Medina Spirit moved from being heralded as the gritty competitor who gave trainer Bob Baffert his record seventh Kentucky Derby victory to having his win tainted by a positive drug test for the therapeutic medication betamethasone. How this will play out in the running of the Preakness is impossible to predict. Baffert has a tremendous record with his Derby winners returning to victory in the Preakness. Medina Spirit has never run worse than second in his six starts and all three of those place finishes happened when he was not on the lead in the early going. Regardless of who else is in the field, Medina Spirit will try to control the race on the front end. Win Contender.
4. Crowded Trade (10-1 – More Than Ready – Chad Brown / Javier Castellano – 3: 1-1-1 - $179,000) Crowded Trade will try the Preakness with only three career starts which includes a debut maiden victory, a nose loss in the Gotham (G3), and then a third in the Wood Memorial (G2). The horses that came from the New York Derby preps did not perform well two weeks ago at Churchill Downs. Trainer Chad Brown won the second leg of the Triple Crown in 2017 with Cloud Computing. Use underneath.
5. Midnight Bourbon (5-1 – Tiznow – Steve Asmussen / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 8: 2-2-3 - $461,420) Midnight Bourbon ran in only graded-stakes races since he broke his maiden last summer at Ellis Park. Unlike the Kentucky Derby, where he is winless, trainer Steve Asmussen won the Preakness twice with the filly Rachel Alexandra in 2009 and two years prior with Curlin. Midnight Bourbon’s only finish outside of the top three was his sixth in the Derby, when he got bumped back to 12th in the early going. Typically, he prefers to be pressing the early pace. He will be a clear third betting choice behind the Baffert runners. Top Choice.
6. Rombauer (12-1 – Twirling Candy – Michael McCarthy / Flavien Prat – 4: 1-1-1 - $107,380) Rombauer brings an interesting six-race career with a win on the turf to start his career, a victory on the artificial surface at Golden Gate in the El Camino Real Derby, and a second and a third in graded stakes on the dirt. Trainer Michael McCarthy skipped the Run for the Roses because the El Camino Real victory got Rombauer an all-expense paid spot in the Preakness. His preferred running style is that of a closer. Live longshot.
7. France Go De Ina (20-1 – Will Take Charge – Mori Hideyuki / Joel Rosario – 4: 2-0-0 - $145,291) This Kentucky-bred will make his first start in America after running sixth in the UAE Derby (G2) in March at Meydan in Dubai. Prior to that race, he broke his maiden and won an allowance in Japan where he is based. Toss.
8. Unbridled Honor (15-1 – Honor Code – Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez – 4: 1-1-1 - $107,380) Trainer Todd Pletcher has yet to win the Preakness, but the second leg of the Triple Crown has never been a high priority for him. He usually skips this race with his Kentucky Derby runners, unless they were the winner, and aims for the Belmont Stakes. Unbridled Honor broke his maiden at Tampa Bay Downs and then was fourth in the Tampa Derby. Most recently, he was second in the Lexington (G3) behind King Fury. That April 10 race made the Preakness an ideal spot for the son of Honor Code. Live Longshot.
9. Risk Taking (15-1 – Medaglia d’Oro – Chad Brown / Jose Ortiz – 5: 2-0-0 - $200,030) Risk Taking was an impressive winner of two starts at Aqueduct after trainer Chad Brown added blinkers for his maiden score and the Withers (G3) in February. He was a disappointing seventh in the Wood Memorial (G2) which dashed his Kentucky Derby hopes. He did his best running from off the pace and has a chance to hit the board in the Preakness. Use underneath.
10. Concert Tour (5-2 – Street Sense – Bob Baffert / Mike Smith – 4: 3-0-1 - $856,600) Concert Tour entered the Arkansas Derby (G1) with an unbeaten record that included the San Vicente (G2) and the Rebel (G2). In the Arkansas Derby, he had the lead in the stretch but then got run down by Super Stock and Caddo River. Baffert and owners Gary and Mary West opted to pass on the Run for the Roses for a variety of reasons and now the son of Street Sense returns for the Preakness. Concert Tour has two front-end victories and the other was a stalking trip in the San Vicente. Win contender.
Summary: Baffert's record in the Preakness is impeccable and the favored duo of Medina Spirit and Concert Tour appear hard to beat when you look at their performance on the racetrack.
However, they both do their best running on the front-end. That combined with the turmoil that has been swirling around the Baffert barn could make them both vulnerable.
Thus, I made Midnight Bourbon my top choice expecting better odds and a cozy stalking trip.
Rombo did drop, that's my pool horse. Trying to turn 20 into 200.Rombo would be the luckiest possible drop. failing that, i'd have to take the Japanese horse simply because this is a bad crop with the best here all having the same running style
yeah ... gonna be hard pressed to find a winner here who will not be on the engine - the history of this race tells that tale ... also 34 of the past 40 winners have come out the Derby - them's 2 huge feathers in the caps of MS & MB.Pretty much exactly how I see it. I think the exacta box is Midnight Bourbon (Asmussen very confident) with both of the Baffert runners (strong lean on MS being the one) and then one of the longshots underneath. Hoping it's Rombauer
My wife LOVES to play those damn .10 supers lolbtw ... i never play it, but i just noticed Pimlico offers the .10 Superfecta for the Preakness - hell, roll the 4 longest shots over the field in 2/3/4 for a cool $48
he wasn't really popped for any kinda PED juice ... Betamethasone is an anti-inflammatory, so it wasn't exactly a juiced up speed freak who now has to race without his magic oats.Has anyone considered that the drugs MS had in his system really did help, and being drug free for this race might make a difference?
This isn't an anabolic steroid. It's a corticosteroid. Not used as a PED. But this is one of the side effects of stopping use.he wasn't really popped for any kinda PED juice ... Betamethasone is an anti-inflammatory, so it wasn't exactly a juiced up speed freak who now has to race without his magic oats.
enormous scrutiny now, because if he does run out, it will be (erroneously) blamed on the lack of wünder ointment.
Withdrawal from long-term use of corticosteroids can cause fatigue, weight loss, and nausea
This isn't an anabolic steroid. It's a corticosteroid. Not used as a PED. But this is one of the side effects of stopping use.