I just don't know what to make of the chances of the 1 hole since they changed the starting gate last year. It is supposed to be more fair now, but the reality is you always have a cavalcade of horses making a bee line left towards the rail to save ground and avoid getting caught wide. It's not just the 1 hole - most of the horses on the inside risk getting pinballed, that's why speed is so important out of the gate. There are potential plusses. KA can rate. He's comfortable being on the inside. Could he win? Yes. Will his price reflect his true odds now? No. 6-1 is not fair value from that post. I think only chance is to break great and then quickly get up to the 2nd flight and try to rate from there. It's a tall order. I think he'll run a solid race and find a way to get in the mix but he'll have to be much the best to win now. Definitely not my key from the #1 slot.Enough to throw the #1 off the top of a ticket?
I'm in an FF type draft pool where we take turns selecting horses. I definitely have SS on my board. Should be able to save him for a later round.howzabout Super Stock slapped in the 18 hole at 30-1?
no respect being shown for the Arky, which was supposedly gonna be a 2 horse race between Caddo & Concert Tour, who had a battle in the Rebel back in March.
so it was a #### 6 horse field, and the top 2 wasted themselves while Santana saved every last #######' inch on the rail with SS, then had a TON of horse to inhale those 2 gassed animals.
Baffert knew he had to aim CT for the Preakness, and Caddooo popped a fever and dropped ... really a down year for Oaklawn cred - CT really sunk the star power.
so we get one of the last major key prep winners at a very nice ml price - a tremendous bargain for those who believe ... don't think the 18 hole is any kinda bother, and we all know the Asmussen connection is balls deep here - SS is the Rodney Dangerfield of '21.
it's a hell of a tall order, and he did have a dream trip in a very small field - i had him pegged for possibly 20-1 at worst.
i'm not gonna, but i wouldn't fault one who would.
interesting - how many drafters? figure anything more than 4 is not gonna cut it.I'm in an FF type draft pool where we take turns selecting horses. I definitely have SS on my board. Should be able to save him for a later round.
Right now it's 3 of us out of our FF league but have a 4th lined up that would give us an even 5 rounds.interesting - how many drafters? figure anything more than 4 is not gonna cut it.
1.1 RYW
Looks like he got some juice to go with his soup and sandwich.take a look at this breeze from 4/23 - now, tell me ... if this cat makes it to the gate on Saturday, who do you think is most likely to bolt outta there setting potential suicidal early fractions?
IF he makes it.
by all means, let's get with the times and cancel the 126 lbs each Derby horse must carry in favor of assigning social justice weights to each mount. we can start by making EQ carry a harem of SJWsthey are coming after the Sheikh
welp, it's not the first time they tried in Kentucky slim to none, but ... slim, nonetheless.
so ... lemme get this straight - your money is on no international incident @1/9?wikkidpissah said:by all means, let's get with the times and cancel the 126 lbs each Derby horse must carry in favor of assigning social justice weights to each mount. we can start by making EQ carry a harem of SJWs
Hit it in the slop, but the final odds were 1/2, 5-1 and 4-1. $1 Tri paid $18.40.Since I was watching races anyway I decided to bet on the Kentucky Juvenile. Trifecta box on Averly Jane, Vodka n Water and Bohemian Frost looked good at 8/5, 12-1 and 4-1, but now Vodka n Water is 9/2 and the favorite is down to 3/5. If it hits I may get my money back.
Known Agenda was one of my future bets. Not putting anything else on him. Also bailing on Midnight Bourbon. Watched Highly Motivated’s last breeze and didn’t see anything that would take him out of exotics.Welsch had some interesting comments on the jogs today. Looks like EQ is moving a bit bitter but Highly Motivated is not. I'm tossing Highly Motivated for sure. Hidden Stash was throwing his head and held back - Welsch hated the way he looked. Hot Rod Charlie looked great as did RYW. Called those 2 out. Pletchers' looking fine. Still trying to figure out what to do with Known Agenda from the 1 hole. Sets up for his style but he has to get the perfect trip and doubt that happens. A lot of people thinking he's going to get shuffled into the first turn and be too far back.
nice job dude! keep it up, us idiots need some help.Hit it in the slop, but the final odds were 1/2, 5-1 and 4-1. $1 Tri paid $18.40.
Feel good. Hit a $47 $2 exacta in the 10th. Slop is easier to bet though.nice job dude! keep it up, us idiots need some help.
love your stuff because you list your reasons for a like or dislike. I'm so jacked for the DERBY.flipside of previous post, these are the 4 who i cannot ignore - will be used on all tix:
EQ - can't see any scenario where he's not around for last call ... pace can be fast, slow, tepid, glacial - he's proven and tested. would love the tote blowup if he's shut out, so he won't be my key - but if this race goes true to form i wanna cash, case closed.
RYW - because he's the only one who can get away from this field with elite cruising speed all the way around - the only horse who could wire this lot - nothing i saw to date tells me otherwise ... turf chops (think Barbaro & I'll Have Another) coming off the pace with authority on the cabbage.
that being said, i do believe he is most precarious to moss the board of the major players - only 2nd start on surface, will be first time in traffic, won't have the rail at his disposal, will be first time dirt is kicked up - unless they let him go, which is what i'm hoping for. possible burn out up front. i do believe he'll last to the wire in contention, but if one wants to bet against, there are slight cracks.
Hot Rod Chuck - strictly for his draw ... can't discount out that 9 hole - honest enough to attend to the stretch ... does not need the lead, was just defaulted to him last out, and he ran with it.
already outdueled by both EQ and MS, but i expect the latter to fizzle under the early pace, and if eyeballed by EQ in the stretch like the Juvey, so be it.
O Besos - in love with the incremental steps up the performance ladder and his close in Leezyanna - wants the distance, sits beauty out the 6 hole ... i expect the pace to favor his late move forward - perfect scenario would be top of ticket bonanza ... tall order, but to quote Al Neary in G2 about offing Hyman Roth: "difficult ... but not impossible"
THISCLOSE to being my key.
love your stuff because you list your reasons for a like or dislike. I'm so jacked for the DERBY.
many moons ago invited to a guys house for the derby. I never had a mint julip. So I watch the guy fill a tall glass with bourbon & throw a mint sprig on top. I'm like WTF?
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html
Beautifulhttp://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html
Scroll down and you get a few of the races on Derby day. Brisnet is not everyone's favorite, but free is free.
Also on Helium but only because of the name.wikkid's Derby pix (first in?):
well, i've thought about it long & hard, and i just gotta go with the undefeated horse:
1- Helium
2 - Rock Your World
3 - Essential Quality
4 - Brooklyn Strong
you playing Belmont today?Feel good. Hit a $47 $2 exacta in the 10th. Slop is easier to bet though.
been saying all along that, even tho the faves were steady chances, i thought someone would come out of the clouds for this one, so i set about looking for the longshot most likely to run a 105. reeeeally need some precocity from my Derby horse and he showed that in Canada last year and his one '21 prep was in a race that has treated @otb_lifer and i well on the Derby trail, the TBD Derby, he won and ran an OK fig but did so six-wide on both turns then, after what was such a steady move passing the field it almost seemed premature, got hooked by one of the faves and came back on him. Helium has answered every unambitious call and i can put five more lengths on his last prep. for the price, baby, i'm there.Also on Helium but only because of the name.
hit the bored in 30 of 69 career starts“Cannot toss Hidden Agenda”.....See, Freudian slip...But I know what you mean.
Out of all of this that was #1.“Cannot toss Hidden Agenda”.....See, Freudian slip...But I know what you mean.
could be the Casse tag team special ... Soupy helps fry the front, Helium picks it up coming homebeen saying all along that, even tho the faves were steady chances, i thought someone would come out of the clouds for this one, so i set about looking for the longshot most likely to run a 105. reeeeally need some precocity from my Derby horse and he showed that in Canada last year and his one '21 prep was in a race that has treated @otb_lifer and i well on the Derby trail, the TBD Derby, he won and ran an OK fig but did so six-wide on both turns then, after what was such a steady move passing the field it almost seemed premature, got hooked by one of the faves and came back on him. Helium has answered every unambitious call and i can put five more lengths on his last prep. for the price, baby, i'm there.
I randomly played the 6th at Belmont, but that was it.you playing Belmont today?
man, Irad is unconscious - just booted home that #2 for me at 5-1 ... stole it on the lead, just like Letruska in the Apple Blossom (though much the best today).
he is just riding lights out these days ... cannot toss Hidden Agenda, 1 hole or not - he's live.
ps -Ortiz bros won 5 of the 7 on today's card thus far.
ETA: and now Lezcano is back!
he's gonna give ya run on the front end, that's for damn sure - for as long as he can sustain it.I put $100 on Soup and Sandwich to win. Love the name, grey colt (always been good luck to me) and there’s never anything wrong with soup and sandwich
I’m having a hard tIme tossing Medina Spirit if for no other reason than Baffert/JohnnyVlooks like we'll have great weather for both the Oaks & Derby ... hoping for a fast track come early Saturday evening.
time to start thinning the herd, ticket wise ... the following will not be used by yours truly -
ICARUS TIER:
Soupy, Medina Spirit, Midnight Bourbon
i've blagged on enough about the anticipated upfront speed ... i believe these 3 will be victims of RYW's elite hustle - he is the clear "lights out" runner, and the 3 i'm tossing won't survive that battle ... most iffy on MS - but i gotta make a strategic stand based on how i see this unfolding.
"SEE YA AT PENN NATIONAL!" TIER:
Helium, Hidden Stash, Like the King, Brooklyn Strong
man, i do want some bombs in play, but i just don't see it from these 4 at all.
MANHOLE COVER TIER:
Mandaloun, Super Stock
SS is a tough toss, but the Arky was dog#### this year - Concert Tour was the crop's biggest non injury bust, by far ... Baffert missed on that one. Caddoooo is better suited going a mile, tops - SS had a golden trip, let those 2 burn out ... scant 6 horse field. not gonna back that going in to Churchill's starting gate.
Mandaloun stepped back in a huge way in the Leezyanna - cannot put my coin behind that kinda chitshow ... he has been working well, and if he runs back to his Risen Star form then he can play a role in the exotics - but i'm not counting on it.
that's 9 off the top - 11 left, wanna trim that down by a few more, of course.
fair point - i just don't see any of that first tier lasting except RYW.I’m having a hard tIme tossing Medina Spirit if for no other reason than Baffert/JohnnyV
Yep I get it. And you’re making sense, I’m just struggling with it lolfair point - i just don't see any of that first tier lasting except RYW.
as i said in the post, MS does give pause, but i gotta stand on how i see the race going down.
Hot Rod Charlie leading the field to open the tote?! i figured 3-1 & 7-2 for the 2 favs but theyre both 5-1 earlyLIVE ODDS TICKER
... last crunch day for me - laying off the Oaks card - gl to all playing today
(though i do love Travel Column).
ETA: also chucked this up in my op for ez navigation.
Hot Rod Charlie leading the field to open the tote?! i figured 3-1 & 7-2 for the 2 favs but theyre both 5-1 early