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***Official 2021 Preakness Thread*** Baffert Duo Cleared For Pimlico 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)


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LIVE ODDS TICKER

 

🤘 🐎 💃

hi.  

this looks to be the kinda year where the tote can explode.

hello, again. 

Essential Quality will undoubtedly be your post-time fave, and very well deserving.  an unblemished 6-0, including 5 straight mile+ Stakes wins, capped off by snagging the Blue Grass at Keeneland last week. 

his biggest comp seemed to be Shug's trainee Greatest Honour, but he's off the trail. 

Concert Tour was also highly touted, but flattened out in yesterday's Arky. bounceroo. 

since the points system was introduced back in '12, all the Derby winners had won one of the Arky/Fla./S.A. as their final prep.

those 3 horses this year are (respectively) Super Stock/Known Agenda/Rock Your World.

RYW dazzled at S.A. in his first ever dirt start ... Super Stock ran a very economic beaut in a 6 horse field (dusting an underwhelming Concert Tour),  while Known Agenda bounced back in the FD after a facacta 5th in the Sam Davis (Tampa).

so, yeah ... i think Essential Quality stands out - best of a mediocre crop, but by how much?  enough to warrant even money by the time the gate springs?

i think he'll be bet down as such, yes ... think Battaglia will install at 5/2, possibly 2/1 - would expect 9/5 come the playing of "My Old Kentucky Home" 🎺

so there's that. 

 

as i accentuate every year, i am not here to simply pick a winner ... hell, 2/1 on EQ is gonna pay $6 and change, same as it would at a bullring like Chucktown.

but the KD exotics are bountiful -  the biggest pools of the year ... you ain't getting those kinda tix cashed on a Monday at Parx, i assure you. 

 my goal here is to find the clunk up mofo who i can use as my key horse in the exotics.  that longer priced hoss who can last the distance, pass up the gassed, and tilt the tri and super totes to PAYDAY!

it's been awhile since the yuuuuuuuge explosions happened frequently enough (think Giacomo and MTB, for example) to warrant that kinda outlay ... and most of that is due to adopting the points system, which rewards excellence in routes, over the old method of qualifying via money earned in graded stakes - which always opened the field up to cheap speed that really had no biz on the CD oval going the KD distance.

matter of fact, i believe it was a 19 year stretch where the favorite didn't win ... but, once the pts system took over, we had 7 favorites in a row - including 2 Triple Crowns after a 37 year drought. 

Essential Quality is very good - heck, i think a few more can make a somewhat decent spec for winning as well (including Hot Rod Charlie) ... but the status quo gotta be upended in abject chaos eventually - it's a simple case of the odds getting greater every year in it's favor.  

i think we have it this year. 

 

PS - as effed up as the past year or so has been, getting this race back for the first Saturday in MAY seems like something is finally right.

doesn't it?

 

PPS - will miss every last word of @Man of Constant Sorrow's posts up in here ... from the ridiculous to the beautiful to the sublime to the poignant to the purely abstract - it will not be the same without him - R.I.P., Tom 🙏

 

 

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LIVE ODDS TICKER   🤘 🐎 💃 hi.   this looks to be the kinda year where the tote can explode. hello, again.  Essential Quality will undoubtedly be your post-time fave, and v

Dedicating this mint julip to MoCS and my great uncle Walter, who used to take me out of school to go to the track at Del Mar.  

fortunately, last year's hay reserves were plentiful in VT so, after a mad rush of procuring and slamming gallons of the new NSAID-flavored Mountain Dew, i am proud to partner with Amazon to offer wik

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

:deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse:

would be remiss if i didn't chuck the obligatory shout to the always sorely missed @Evilgrin 72 

:deadhorse: 

:towelwave:

:tumbleweed:

:kicksrock:

 

 

.... somebody's gotta get jiggy with me once i drunkenly start touting BOURBONIC as our wünderclunker. 

ol' EG loved them longies. 

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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Based on your post:  Super Stock/Known Agemda/Rock Your World, each on top of a $1 Tri key with the other 2 + the chalk + 3 longshots of the viewers choice underneath. $90 total cost.  Get at least one of the three longshots to finish 2nd or 3rd and it would pay nice.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Based on your post:  Super Stock/Known Agemda/Rock Your World, each on top of a $1 Tri key with the other 2 + the chalk + 3 longshots of the viewers choice underneath. $90 total cost.  Get at least one of the three longshots to finish 2nd or 3rd and it would pay nice.

... yes. 

but i always key BOX, to insure that if my clunker takes the Roses i get that chaos on top. 

so, if i go $1, and key box one duly priced long horse with 9 other, that's $216 for total coverage up n' down the tix. 

if i wanna go cheap, a .50 would only run $108. 

44 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

:pickle:

:clap:

Edited by otb_lifer
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The opposite of last year's crop and the only two memorable horses are hurt. So i'm not going to pick, just going to root.

And my root is one of otb's - Super Stock. I've long wanted to see a graduate of the futurity system that was the lifeblood of southwestern racing long before there were legal tracks in TX & OK on the Derby Trail and this'n had a terrible (wide early, boxed late) trip in his '21 debut before taking the AK Derby yesterday. Cant recommend him since he was only in there because his owner asked trainer Asmussen to run him in a 100-pointer to see how he'd do, but it ends up being how i'd train up to the Triple Crown these days - late & tight. Riding the SS into @Man of Constant Sorrow's home town.

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1 hour ago, wikkidpissah said:

The opposite of last year's crop and the only two memorable horses are hurt. So i'm not going to pick, just going to root.

And my root is one of otb's - Super Stock. I've long wanted to see a graduate of the futurity system that was the lifeblood of southwestern racing long before there were legal tracks in TX & OK on the Derby Trail and this'n had a terrible (wide early, boxed late) trip in his '21 debut before taking the AK Derby yesterday. Cant recommend him since he was only in there because his owner asked trainer Asmussen to run him in a 100-pointer to see how he'd do, but it ends up being how i'd train up to the Triple Crown these days - late & tight. Riding the SS into @Man of Constant Sorrow's home town.

Santana had a ton of horse left for that stretch move to the 3 path yesterday ... rated perfectly off CT and the Caddy, and had all the giddyup needed - he looked like he was starving for more. 

he checks all of my ❤ boxes. 

Oaklawn has always treated me well.  

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Posted (edited)

Arky

Fla.

S.A.

Blue Grass

... and the hometown track - BOURBONIC AT 72/1 IN THE WOOD 🪵

:50 and change for the 1/2 😄

but i'll be damned if ol' Carmouche didn't pull one right out his cotdamn ###.

think they were on the Jamaica Station platform at the 1/4 mile ... holy chit, Cherlock 🥃

LeezyAnna and Hot Rod Chuck 🚘

JRuby 🤴

TBD 🎈

 

and there ya have the last batch of preps ... will be looking into some of the earlier tussles during the coming week. 

LET'S. CLUNK. UP.

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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Love this thread and hope this year's iteration brings everyone some good cheer.

7 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

PPS - will miss every last word of @Man of Constant Sorrow's posts up in here ... from the ridiculous to the beautiful to the sublime to the poignant to the purely abstract - it will not be the same without him - R.I.P., Tom 🙏

A good man. Won't be the same without dispatches from the Louisville area. RIP, Tom.

Edited by rockaction
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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Quasi/Somewhat OFFICIAL Road To The 2021 Kentucky Derby*** Links To All Final Preps (Missing GB MoCS)

ATTN: SPEED FREAKZ

can't think of last time we had a Derby winner that had not posted at least one C-Note Beyer fig during their prep season. 

this year we have a party of one: Rock Your World 

that. is. it. 

Sadler trainee who made his first 2 starts on the cabbage ... wheeled out for first ever flats try at the S.A. Derby - where he dominated the pace, and never had to worry about dirt kicked into the grill - the fractions were solid.

he was awarded a 103 bsf for the effort ... closest of the impending KD field are Essential Quality & Hot Rod Chuck, who both hung 97s out along the trail. 

pace makes this race ... and i don't think Sadler is gonna richard around at all with this cat - expect him to be forwardly placed with extreme prejudice ... he really had his way at S.A., that was as dominant a performance as we saw all prep season. 

he'll look to duplicate with a bit more distance on May 1st (big boy looked ready for plenty more last we saw him).

of course, he is extremely lightly seasoned on the surface (as well as overall), and may not respond at all if shuffled back come Churchill ... his post position draw is gonna influence the 'capping tremendously - if he draws well, and clear of being boxed by fellow need the leads, well ... then he hits that first turn on the engine, and i would expect a sub :23 1/4, sub:46 1/2.

-  he is the only cat who can check those 2 boxes off: last prep win at either S.A./Oaklawn/Gulfstream, a 100+ bsf on the record. 

for now ... jus' sayin' 

 

 

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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Somewhat OFFICIAL Road To The 2021 Kentucky Derby*** Links To All Final Preps/We Need SPEED 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)
  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Somewhat OFFICIAL Road To The 2021 Kentucky Derby*** Links To All Final Preps/We Need SPEED, Late$t Vega$ Look 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)

Latest Vegas ML - 

🐎🐎🐎🐎🐎🐎🐎🐎🐎🐎🐎

Essential Quality+250

Rock Your World+550

Concert Tour+600

Highly Motivated+800

Hot Rod Charlie+1000 🔥

Super Stock+1000 🔥

Bourbonic+1400

Known Agenda+1600

Caddo River+1600

Medina Spirit+1699

Dynamic One+2000

Risk Taking+2000

Van Gogh+2500

Drain The Clock+2000

Dream Shake+2500

Helium+2500

Jackie’s Warrior+2500

Midnight Bourbon+2500 🔥

Prevelance+2500

Soup and Sandwich+2500 🔥

Team Merchants+2500

Triple Tap+2500

Classier+3300

Nick The Vest+3300

Prate+3300

Proxy+3300

Red Flag+3300

Rombauer+3300

Mandaloun+4000

Keepmeinmind+5000

La Perouse+5000

Panadol+5000

Prime Factor+5000

Spielberg+5000

The Great One+5000

Untreated+5000

Candy Man Rocket+6600

🐎🐎🐎🐎🐎🐎🐎🐎🐎🐎🐎

🔥 denotes "me likey at that number" 🔥

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Buyer beware on some of the ultra longshots on that list. They have to make the field of 20 to actually run in the race.  I remember a few years ago an offshore book continuing to list a horse that was already dead.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Buyer beware on some of the ultra longshots on that list. They have to make the field of 20 to actually run in the race.  I remember a few years ago an offshore book continuing to list a horse that was already dead.

... and he paid as much as my selection :tumbleweed:

 

- but, yesh ... there are roughly 40 listed above, and 20 will make the gate. 

here are the current 20 who are qualified as of today: 

140 Essential Quality

110 Hot Rod Charlie

109 Super Stock

104 Like the King

102 Known Agenda

100 Rock Your World

100 Bourbonic

74 Medina Spirits

70 Concert Tour

66 Midnight Bourbon 

60 Weyburn

52 Mandaloun

50 Caddo River

50 Highly Motivated

50 Helium

40 Panadol

40 Soup and Sandwich

40 Dynamic One

40 Crowded Trade

40 Sainthood

- interesting that points usually bottomed out at 20-25 ... not the greatest crop here, but less variance underneath. 

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3 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

Where Brooklyn Strong at?! Thought he made enough @ 2yo to be light here or sumn....

5th in the Wood 🪵 so no pernts accrued for the dance - he had to at least hit third to sneak in. 

 

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, Judge Smails said:

Potentially the worst Derby in decades? Seems like nothing but B players left standing 

Essential Quality has a shot here to stamp himself King of the dipchits ... he's answered every bell, passed all the tests - done all that's been asked. 

still hasn't run the eye popping speed fig, but, save for first time dirt tryer Rock Your World, nobody has cracked 100 leading up. 

that's why i stated in the OP that this may finally be the year we get the good ol' fashioned tote blow - not since MTB in '09 have we seen the kinda life changing haul ring up - the points system went in, and we became spoiled by great chalk horses running their races brilliantly - but denied the real topsy turvy ticket rewards as a result ... the kind ya gotta wheel away from the window. 

best chance for us getting a doozy this year is for RYW to draw honest, and try to wire this bunch ... hopefully he'll cook all the top flight contenders if he does -  which would lead to either 1) a total collapse where we get mules left standing up and down the tix, or 2) RYW wiring the lot, with said mules picking up the rest of the exotics. 

Hot Rod Chuck/Super Stock/Known Agenda/Like the King - all have questions to give one pause in thinking they'd be a lock to hit the board ... the rest of the field is certainly no great shakes either, but we have no idea how they'll respond or rally to total chaos if this thing goes to hell in a handcart. 

still 17 days to try and whittle it down ... but the heavy lifting will have to wait 'til the draw - where i hope we get RYW anywhere in the 8-16 holes.

but as of right now (pre-draw/defections/works) it's Essential Quality as prettiest bearded lady.

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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Posted (edited)

steppin' off the trail for a spell - gotta recognize the best horse in the game right now 🐎

Monomoy Girl

16 career starts, 15-1-0

last lost as a 2 yr old, in her 4th career start, back in '17. 

she's won 12 stakes (including 8 G1), and placed in a 13th.  those 12 wins took place across 6 different tracks (Oaklawn, Belmont, Keeneland, Churchill, the Spa, Parx).

trained by Cox, Tapit/Pulpit/Deputy Minister line on top ... she has been the most remarkably consistent winner in the gig lo over her career. 

Zenyatta raced all but one of her starts on Cali synth ... MG has traveled and won on the reg (dirt)  - not a reach at all to say MG has been better, all things considered.  but there's no juice here - Z had the patented close from the clouds schtick, and to the casual fan that kinda arc is definitely more appealing/thrilling. took the boys on twice in the Classic ... won in Cali, lost in Ky (Mikey may have waited toooo long). plus being Cali based ... no shortage of great press when sitting out there.

i give the nod to MG as best American filly/mare i've seen this era (with Rachel 2nd).

 

... and today she hooks up with hotshot 4 yr old Swiss Skydiver in the $1M G1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn. 

SS has a very respectable record herself, including a Preakness win over 2020 HotY Authentic ... she ran a game 2nd in the Blue Grass leading up to that Pimloco win, so she's knocked around and showed her mettle vs the boys. 

McPeek trained, with Johannesburg/Hennesy/Strike the Gold line bottom. 

now, these 2 did hook up once already in the 2020 BC Distaff - SS was doomed from the git, had to work too hard to rally, had nothing left for the ding-dong as a result. 

scant 6 horse field for this one tonight ... so as close to a match race as we can get. 

 MG warmed up in the slop at today's track in last month's Bayakoa (race starts at 2min mark in vid). that jump out to the well trodden middle path was all she wrote. 

SS made her 2020 debut last month, as well ... hand ridden to a romp in the Beholder Mile at S.A.

is she ready to dethrone MG?

ICE COLD EXACTA will pay less than putzi ... but gimme MG on top, she's the champ 'til proven otherwise.  

betting aside, this is one that's gonna be a real treat as a fan of this sport and of these 2 ladies. 

FS2 will carry the race live as part of their America's Racing Day, which starts at 5pm EST ... TVG will also carry live, of course. 

Post Time for the Apple Blosson is scheduled for 7:10 EST tonight. 

Let's Go!

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Somewhat OFFICIAL Road To The 2021 Kentucky Derby*** Cue Kool & the Gang 'cuz IT'S LADIES NIGHT! 💃 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)
9 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

steppin' off the trail for a spell - gotta recognize the best horse in the game right now 🐎

Monomoy Girl

16 career starts, 15-1-0

last lost as a 2 yr old, in her 4th career start, back in '17. 

she's won 12 stakes (including 8 G1), and placed in a 13th.  those 12 wins took place across 6 different tracks (Oaklawn, Belmont, Keeneland, Churchill, the Spa, Parx).

trained by Cox, Tapit/Pulpit/Deputy Minister line on top ... she has been the most remarkably consistent winner in the gig lo over her career. 

Zenyatta raced all but one of her starts on Cali synth ... MG has traveled and won on the reg (dirt)  - not a reach at all to say MG has been better, all things considered.  but there's no juice here - Z had the patented close from the clouds schtick, and to the casual fan that kinda arc is definitely more appealing/thrilling. took the boys on twice in the Classic ... won in Cali, lost in Ky (Mikey may have waited toooo long). plus being Cali based ... no shortage of great press when sitting out there.

i give the nod to MG as best American filly/mare i've seen this era (with Rachel 2nd).

 

... and today she hooks up with hotshot 4 yr old Swiss Skydiver in the $1M G1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn. 

SS has a very respectable record herself, including a Preakness win over 2020 HotY Authentic ... she ran a game 2nd in the Blue Grass leading up to that Pimloco win, so she's knocked around and showed her mettle vs the boys. 

McPeek trained, with Johannesburg/Hennesy/Strike the Gold line bottom. 

now, these 2 did hook up once already in the 2020 BC Distaff - SS was doomed from the git, had to work too hard to rally, had nothing left for the ding-dong as a result. 

scant 6 horse field for this one tonight ... so as close to a match race as we can get. 

 MG warmed up in the slop at today's track in last month's Bayakoa (race starts at 2min mark in vid). that jump out to the well trodden middle path was all she wrote. 

SS made her 2020 debut last month, as well ... hand ridden to a romp in the Beholder Mile at S.A.

is she ready to dethrone MG?

ICE COLD EXACTA will pay less than putzi ... but gimme MG on top, she's the champ 'til proven otherwise.  

betting aside, this is one that's gonna be a real treat as a fan of this sport and of these 2 ladies. 

FS2 will carry the race live as part of their America's Racing Day, which starts at 5pm EST ... TVG will also carry live, of course. 

Post Time for the Apple Blosson is scheduled for 7:10 EST tonight. 

Let's Go!

 

I have love for Swiss, I had her keyed in the tri in the Preakness 

I hope she wins today 

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10 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

- slapped a key tri box using the #3 Letruska ... meh, she'll try to wire 'em, so why the hell not :shrug:

no gold in them thar other hills. 

 

9 hours ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

😃

:hifive:

i doubled up, can't complain - but instead of 3 over 2/6 over 2/6 i should've just played a straight 3/6/2 ... big Girl is just so much better than SS right now.

Irad is riding out his cotdamn mind these days - best in the biz.  MG eyeballed and passed Letruska in the stretch, but Irad dug in, and the #3 responded con mucho gusto!

hell of an effort ... their only shot was to wire 'em, and they got it done ✌

... btw, Irad is on Known Agenda for the Derby - gonna be awfully hard to not use him as my key - he's spinning gold right now. 

 

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we're on to Pimlico

kinda bummed, was looking at this cat as one of my easiest short priced tosses for the Derby. 

word was leaking day after the Arky that Baffert was gonna go the Bayern route with CT, and here we are ... think this one will avail himself better in the Preakness than his predecessor (9th place).

O Besos - Come On Down! 

 

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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Somewhat OFFICIAL Road To The 2021 Kentucky Derby*** Baffert Cancels Kentucky Leg Of His 2021 Tour 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)
53 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

we're on to Pimlico

kinda bummed, was looking at this cat as one of my easiest short priced tosses for the Derby. 

word was leaking day after the Arky that Baffert was gonna go the Bayern route with CT, and here we are ... think this one will avail himself better in the Preakness than his predecessor (9th place).

O Besos - Come On Down! 

 

Which leads to Joel riding Rock Your World 

And he’s been HOT

eta—

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/247507/rosario-to-ride-rock-your-world-in-kentucky-derby

Edited by Cowboysfan8
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1 hour ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Which leads to Joel riding Rock Your World 

And he’s been HOT

eta—

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/247507/rosario-to-ride-rock-your-world-in-kentucky-derby

yeah, that's some intriguing fallout ... nobody's riding as well as Irad, but Joel can go get it on RYW - the draw is really gonna tell the tale. 

🐎

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Posted (edited)

gonna begin at the beginning here ... hop in the wayback machine with Mr. Peabody and me for the 2020 Juvey

notable for Hot Rod Chuck (at 94/1, mind you) making that late surge ... EQ picking up the pieces and turning back Chuckie whilst cruising home.  

roughly 6 months will have elapsed by the time they assemble at Churchill, but this was our first taste of prep season proper - and the top 2 from November's tilt are still standing tall, with EQ yet to falter. 

🐎

ETA: the Chuckster will now be without Rosario, who also rode him to victory in the La. Derby - Prat now gets the KD mount. 

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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Rest easy, MoCS.   Not the same without you. 

I've had a future bet on Known Agenda for a while, although honestly I can't remember why.   But I figure it must have been a good idea at some point so I'm going to stick with the Florida Derby winner.   I also like Super Stock to hit the board.   That was just an awful and head scratching ride in the Arkansas Derby, but he still had enough to overcome it at the end.   Putting those two in the first two positions in a tri and we'll see what happens, along with a bunch of other nonsense bets I'm sure to make.   

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43 minutes ago, -fish- said:

I also like Super Stock to hit the board.   That was just an awful and head scratching ride in the Arkansas Derby, but he still had enough to overcome it at the end. 

?  

Caddo and Concert Tour were gonna be the controlling speed, and Santana/SS let them go at each other up front ... saved ground from the rail/1 hole all the way around, waiting to make the move - that was as perfect a scenario as he could've hoped for - he was always in striking distance, never hurried - he let the 2 hotshots burn out up front ... lovely rating work. 

now, the issue was in the stretch ... it looked like Santana had room to slice in between both, but chose to bounce out ... gotta think he knew how much horse he had underneath him, and how well rationed the power and speed was to make such a dart to the 3 path - also probably sensed that the other two were in no shape to outkick SS. 

 

tl;dr: he had a remarkably economic trip heading into the stretch - ergo, a ton of horse was left for Santana to drive home. 

 

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 Cox confirms Caddo River is on his way to Churchill ... last seen wasting the Derby prospects of Baffert baby Concert Tour (by softening him for the Super Stock upset in the Arky), he'll undoubtedly be looking to control the pace for as long as he can - would love to see him & RYW draw close together, from favorable slots (i'd prefer anywhere from 7-16 holes) ... this scenario will get us cooking with a legit early speed battle, which i believe can blow this open for some stretch run chaos. 

i'll say this for ol' Caddo ... he ain't showing up to rate or ration speed or stalk - he's a full GO. 

🐎

 

 

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  • otb_lifer changed the title to ***Somewhat OFFICIAL Road To The 2021 Kentucky Derby*** Speeding Caddo Headed To Louisville 🐎 (Missing GB MoCS)
On 4/19/2021 at 9:38 AM, otb_lifer said:

 

@Walking Boot-  Tizmagician romped yesterday out in Santa Anita - you still have a piece? 

Congrats on the GIII if ya do ✌

🐎

 

I'm told Walking Boot is no longer on the boards, for those that follow other threads you may know the story. But I see him on Facebook, and he was very happy to watch the GIII win and still has a portion of Tizamagician (plus the breeding rights on Authentic, who just impregnated his first mare, and about 15-20 other horses).

They aborted a run at the Derby last year with Tizamagician, they'd flown the horse to Dubai to try to get some Derby points, but the race was called off due to Covid and everything was thrown into flux. The horse was in debt due to that misadventure for quite a while (the way the horse ownership works, after the initial buy-in, no further costs are put on the owners, the horse has to win his way into profitability... the owners don't have to put up any more money to cover his debt but don't get paid until he's paid up). After the Tokyo City Cup, though, Tizamagician was not only back in the black but also fully funded for expected costs in the next six months, so, he finally got a cut of the purse after a year of missing out on a payout.

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4 minutes ago, firstseason1987 said:

 

I'm told Walking Boot is no longer on the boards, for those that follow other threads you may know the story. But I see him on Facebook, and he was very happy to watch the GIII win and still has a portion of Tizamagician (plus the breeding rights on Authentic, who just impregnated his first mare, and about 15-20 other horses).

They aborted a run at the Derby last year with Tizamagician, they'd flown the horse to Dubai to try to get some Derby points, but the race was called off due to Covid and everything was thrown into flux. The horse was in debt due to that misadventure for quite a while (the way the horse ownership works, after the initial buy-in, no further costs are put on the owners, the horse has to win his way into profitability... the owners don't have to put up any more money to cover his debt but don't get paid until he's paid up). After the Tokyo City Cup, though, Tizamagician was not only back in the black but also fully funded for expected costs in the next six months, so, he finally got a cut of the purse after a year of missing out on a payout.

ok, i wasn't aware he was gone (i'd been gone myself for better part of the past year) - plz send the Boot my best wishes for continued success with all his endeavors ✌

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Posted (edited)

the defection of Concert Tour gave way to entry for a horse i'm seriously on as my key player for KD 2021:

O Besos

he has been on the steady upswing in speed figs ... 

-  his career #s in order - 60 (6f), 77 (5.5f), 83 (6f), 88 (1m 1/8th Risen Star), 96 (1m 3/16th Leezyanna Derby) - 

stepped up in class and ran his first route in his 4th start, where he rallied late but was a disappointing 4th in the Risen Star ... stayed at the Fairgrounds, as the trainer (Foley) aimed for the La. Derby, citing OB's look for stretching out just a bit more (Leezyanna is the longest of the preps).

his late move  damn near clipped Midnight Bourbon for place (watch him charge up the rail) - the gallop out was outstanding (O Besos came home fastest of the 3 in both last furlong and last 3 furlongs) ... this horse wants more distance. 

Caddo & RYW will provide plenty of up top pace for O Besos to chomp in to - i rarely tout WIN bets up in here (i'm all about the exotics), but this is a cat i can get behind if a punter wants to plunk down on a most intriguing comer at some very long odds ... feeling lucky?  

he needs plenty to go right for him to actually take the Roses, but i think he's undoubtedly the best spec there is in that 30+/1ish odds vicinity. 

pedigree in spades - son of Kentucky Derby winner Orb ... his last out showed he will have no problem getting this distance - the steady incline shows excellent improvement with each race run. 

biggest caveats?

the connections are all very green ... barely any Derby experience to draw from.

it's also been a minute since his running style has won this thing - but we are devoid of the super horse factor this year - nobody in this field is scaring anybody off - it's a legit horse race. 

nonetheless ... i'm seeing him as a dynamite and extremely live choice to key my wagers around - i don't need him to win, but having him on top will surely engorge the exotic payouts.

with 8 days to go it's time to start constructing tix around this cat ... draw on Tuesday will put that into overdrive. 

 

 

Edited by otb_lifer
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3 hours ago, otb_lifer said:

the defection of Concert Tour gave way to entry for a horse i'm seriously on as my key player for KD 2021:

O Besos

he has been on the steady upswing in speed figs ... 

-  his career #s in order - 60 (6f), 77 (5.5f), 83 (6f), 88 (1m 1/8th Risen Star), 96 (1m 3/16th Leezyanna Derby) - 

stepped up in class and ran his first route in his 4th start, where he rallied late but was a disappointing 4th in the Risen Star ... stayed at the Fairgrounds, as the trainer (Foley) aimed for the La. Derby, citing OB's look for stretching out just a bit more (Leezyanna is the longest of the preps).

his late move  damn near clipped Midnight Bourbon for place (watch him charge up the rail) - the gallop out was outstanding (O Besos came home fastest of the 3 in both last furlong and last 3 furlongs) ... this horse wants more distance. 

Caddo & RYW will provide plenty of up top pace for O Besos to chomp in to - i rarely tout WIN bets up in here (i'm all about the exotics), but this is a cat i can get behind if a punter wants to plunk down on a most intriguing comer at some very long odds ... feeling lucky?  

he needs plenty to go right for him to actually take the Roses, but i think he's undoubtedly the best spec there is in that 30+/1ish odds vicinity. 

pedigree in spades - son of Kentucky Derby winner Orb ... his last out showed he will have no problem getting this distance - the steady incline shows excellent improvement with each race run. 

biggest caveats?

the connections are all very green ... barely any Derby experience to draw from.

it's also been a minute since his running style has won this thing - but we are devoid of the super horse factor this year - nobody in this field is scaring anybody off - it's a legit horse race. 

nonetheless ... i'm seeing him as a dynamite and extremely live choice to key my wagers around - i don't need him to win, but having him on top will surely engorge the exotic payouts.

with 8 days to go it's time to start constructing tix around this cat ... draw on Tuesday will put that into overdrive. 

 

 

I don’t follow the sport like I used to, but I like to think I know what’s up for the most part.

Who the hell is Marcelino Pedroza Jr?

:oldunsure:

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really cool stuff here.  I usually bet around $250 on the Derby w/ boxes et al.   Just try to make a haul or lose the entire $250.

Loving the info.  Please keep it up.

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1 hour ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

I don’t follow the sport like I used to, but I like to think I know what’s up for the most part.

Who the hell is Marcelino Pedroza Jr?

:oldunsure:

good story here  ... may be more suited for the Derby pre-race extravaganza on NBC, but i'll take it as a closer look at the situation. 

Foley's home track is Churchill, Pedroza been mostly riding at the Indiana Grand bullring - kid has over 1,100 mounts thus far, including the debut of O Besos on this same Churchill track.

extremely tall order to ask this from such a green team, but i'm in as my key horse.  

a look at yesterday's work   👀

sharp. 

 

46 minutes ago, shadrap said:

really cool stuff here.  I usually bet around $250 on the Derby w/ boxes et al.   Just try to make a haul or lose the entire $250.

Loving the info.  Please keep it up.

that's the spirit - if one is gonna throw down, next Saturday is the best opportunity - the pools are fat as #### 😁

how/what do you box?

you can cut your outlay substantially by going key box instead ... find a hoss you believe in, and let it ride. 

things will get much more interesting after Tuesday's draw ... great thing about O Besos is his running style will not be hampered at all by his post position.

 

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8 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

good story here  ... may be more suited for the Derby pre-race extravaganza on NBC, but i'll take it as a closer look at the situation. 

Foley's home track is Churchill, Pedroza been mostly riding at the Indiana Grand bullring - kid has over 1,100 mounts thus far, including the debut of O Besos on this same Churchill track.

extremely tall order to ask this from such a green team, but i'm in as my key horse.  

a look at yesterday's work   👀

sharp. 

 

that's the spirit - if one is gonna throw down, next Saturday is the best opportunity - the pools are fat as #### 😁

how/what do you box?

you can cut your outlay substantially by going key box instead ... find a hoss you believe in, and let it ride. 

things will get much more interesting after Tuesday's draw ... great thing about O Besos is his running style will not be hampered at all by his post position.

 

I'm not even sure how or what I box.  Got some info from a fantasy football(NFL Fever) site some years ago & went with it.  Was the year California Chrome won.  Anyway I did some betting on bovada, hit an exacta & turned $200 into $17,000 & change.  Since then I have bet around the same & lost but it's going to a long damn time before they get back that $17,000.  based on $250 bet per year.

Anyway the more info you guys display the more I take in.  key box?  no idea.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, shadrap said:

I'm not even sure how or what I box.  Got some info from a fantasy football(NFL Fever) site some years ago & went with it.  Was the year California Chrome won.  Anyway I did some betting on bovada, hit an exacta & turned $200 into $17,000 & change.  Since then I have bet around the same & lost but it's going to a long damn time before they get back that $17,000.  based on $250 bet per year.

Anyway the more info you guys display the more I take in.  key box?  no idea.

interesting that you cited Cali Chrome's Derby ... the exacta blew up that year ($340) because longshot Commanding Curve closed up for 2nd ... Commanding Curve's last prep race leading up was a 3rd place finish in the Louisiana Derby - exactly like our boy O Besos this year. quite the coincidence ...

ETA: $1 exacta hit for $170 that year, so that was your score - 170x100=17,000

as far as the "key" box over the "straight" box - 

say you like 5 horses - you wanna use them all in a trifecta wager ... boxing the 5 (for $1) would run $60. 

now, if you decide to key one horse instead (with the other 4), that same trifecta wager gets whittled down to $36. 

let's say it's the 1 horse ... so your key box bet would be: 1/2,3,4,5/2,3,4,5 - 2,3,4,5/1/2,3,4,5 - 2,3,4,5/2,3,4,5/1

you slice your wager expense by 40% as opposed to the other method, but your key horse has to hit the board ... whereas in the straight old box wager, you win no matter how they shake out. 

 

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53 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

good story here  ... may be more suited for the Derby pre-race extravaganza on NBC, but i'll take it as a closer look at the situation. 

Foley's home track is Churchill, Pedroza been mostly riding at the Indiana Grand bullring - kid has over 1,100 mounts thus far, including the debut of O Besos on this same Churchill track.

extremely tall order to ask this from such a green team, but i'm in as my key horse.  

a look at yesterday's work   👀

sharp. 

 

that's the spirit - if one is gonna throw down, next Saturday is the best opportunity - the pools are fat as #### 😁

how/what do you box?

you can cut your outlay substantially by going key box instead ... find a hoss you believe in, and let it ride. 

things will get much more interesting after Tuesday's draw ... great thing about O Besos is his running style will not be hampered at all by his post position.

 

I always was a sucker for a closer

🍻

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27 minutes ago, otb_lifer said:

interesting that you cited Cali Chrome's Derby ... the exacta blew up that year ($340) because longshot Commanding Curve closed up for 2nd ... Commanding Curve's last prep race leading up was a 3rd place finish in the Louisiana Derby - exactly like our boy O Besos this year. quite the coincidence ...

the $1 trifecta that year paid roughly $1,700 - perhaps that's what you had?

as far as the "key" box over the "straight" box - 

say you like 5 horses - you wanna use them all in a trifecta wager ... boxing the 5 (for $1) would run $60. 

now, if you decide to key one horse instead (with the other 4), that same trifecta wager gets whittled down to $36. 

let's say it's the 1 horse ... so your key box bet would be: 1/2,3,4,5/2,3,4,5 - 2,3,4,5/1/2,3,4,5 - 2,3,4,5/2,3,4,5/1

you slice your wager expense by 40% as opposed to the other method, but your key horse has to hit the board ... whereas in the straight old box wager, you win no matter how they shake out. 

 

cool, you just saved me 9 hours of reading.  you guys are the best.  now let's hope for the best!

Kentucky Derby means springtime is here & so is life again.  Such a tradition like no other.

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8 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

I always was a sucker for a closer

🍻

been too damn long ... the points system has robbed us of the thrills of yesteryear - best chance we've had in years, what with no behemoth dominating the scene. 

6 minutes ago, shadrap said:

cool, you just saved me 9 hours of reading.  you guys are the best.  now let's hope for the best!

Kentucky Derby means springtime is here & so is life again.  Such a tradition like no other.

:hifive:

next 8 days are gonna be nonstop calculations, tosses, regrets, put backs, tosses, calculations, etcetcetc, rinse/repeat. 

:deadhorse:

 

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