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The Effect of Black Lives Matters Protests


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From 2014 to 2019, Campbell tracked more than 1,600 BLM protests across the country, largely in bigger cities, with nearly 350,000 protesters. His main finding is a 15 to 20 percent reduction in lethal use of force by police officers — roughly 300 fewer police homicides — in census places that saw BLM protests.

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Campbell’s research also indicates that these protests correlate with a 10 percent increase in murders in the areas that saw BLM protests. That means from 2014 to 2019, there were somewhere between 1,000 and 6,000 more homicides than would have been expected if places with protests were on the same trend as places that did not have protests.

Couple thoughts, assuming the data shows at least a directionally believable pattern

1.  We shouldn't confuse BLM with police reform.  In theory, police reform can happen without BLM protests.  So I don't think the data should be used to argue that improvements in police can't be achieved without negative impacts.  And on the other side, improvements in policing can very often have some sort of associated downside in weakened police effectiveness.

2.  If a life is a life...then the data would indicate that BLM is a net life loss.  3.3 - 20X more than gained when compared to reduced police homicides.  This ignores that the bulk of BLM protests seem to take hold from a dozen or less individual cases in any year.  Again, if you believe the correlation protesting these dozen results in ~3,000 incremental deaths.

3.  I'd argue that a life is not a life.  Generally speaking police homicides are committed upon criminals and are greatly impacted by non compliance of suspects.  It is an exception of an exception where a police homicide is not in the act of a physical encounter with a criminal or a suspect escalating to a point where the police unintentionally, but unlawfully kill someone.  That is no way is to say any homicide is good, none are.  Even the knife woman that was shot because she was going to stab the pink woman...we don't want that to happen.  That said, homicides not committed by the police can be often committed by criminals upon criminals, but also with great frequency upon innocent civilians.  So there was a reduction of 300 police killings, very many of which may have been the same criminals that contributed to the increase of 1,000-6,000 homicides of law abiding citizens. 

Lastly, I don't think either number should be surprising.  I would think that wrong or right, police will either self-withdraw or as we saw in certain localities, be forced to withdraw.  That will result in police "policing" less and as a result killing less people (and they do tend to more often than not kill criminals).  And of course, when they are withdrawn, criminals have more free reign to kill fellow citizens.

Discuss

 

 

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On 4/24/2021 at 5:05 PM, djmich said:

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Couple thoughts, assuming the data shows at least a directionally believable pattern

1.  We shouldn't confuse BLM with police reform.  In theory, police reform can happen without BLM protests.  So I don't think the data should be used to argue that improvements in police can't be achieved without negative impacts.  And on the other side, improvements in policing can very often have some sort of associated downside in weakened police effectiveness.

What do you mean by "negative impacts"?

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12 minutes ago, dgreen said:

What do you mean by "negative impacts"?

I mean that there can be police reform that doesn't result in more murders (improvements in policing can be achieved without that negative impact).

Just because the data shows what it shows about BLM...doesn't mean reform in isolation is bad.

 

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15 minutes ago, -jb- said:

Seems like the author used a Jump to Conclusions mat for this. I don't see how you can correlate, either positively or negatively, here.

Are you saying that the data is not statistically significant/usable or that it makes no sense that protests would impact police behaviors? 

I think either can be a valid question, but I'd say at minimum the author seems to have used more information to jump to a conclusion than you've presented that he jumped to a conclusion.

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2 minutes ago, djmich said:

Are you saying that the data is not statistically significant/usable or that it makes no sense that protests would impact police behaviors? 

I think either can be a valid question, but I'd say at minimum the author seems to have used more information to jump to a conclusion than you've presented that he jumped to a conclusion.

The former. There are simply way too many other factors that contribute to the statistics to say that BLM protests affected said statistics with any specificity. I could do a better job of tying my shoes and therefore trip less. Sure. But did I get new shoes with better tread? Walk on flatter and paved terrain? Was I less in a rush? Did I practice walking (lolz)? 

Full disclosure, I didn't read the study. Nor has it been peer reviewed yet.

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Here is what’s going to happen:

The police will stop policing black neighborhoods and or any other neighborhoods that they are not supported in. 

Good black families will suffer.

Murder rates will skyrocket. (already up 30% last year, 70% in Minneapolis)

If you want to talk about systemic issues, if we keep going down this path that will have as great an impact as anything else they have overcome. We’re talking about thousands and thousands of good black folks feeling the impact of these high murder and crime rates.

 

 

 

Edited by STEADYMOBBIN 22
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2 hours ago, -jb- said:

The former. There are simply way too many other factors that contribute to the statistics to say that BLM protests affected said statistics with any specificity. I could do a better job of tying my shoes and therefore trip less. Sure. But did I get new shoes with better tread? Walk on flatter and paved terrain? Was I less in a rush? Did I practice walking (lolz)? 

Full disclosure, I didn't read the study. Nor has it been peer reviewed yet.

Sure, but this is why you use a large sample size and apply statistical methods to determine confidence, etc.  If you measured walking ability across a large enough base of people and you know one set tied their shoes well and the others didnt...you'd get to the point where you'd feel comfortable about the incremental value in tying your shoes well.

I'm not saying this guy achieved this level, unfortunately I viewed the paper (which was 41 pages long with lots of impressive references and charts lol) and now I can't view it again without registering otherwise would take a look but I thought he had a very large sample of where protests occurred over time.

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11 minutes ago, STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:

Here is what’s going to happen:

The police will stop policing black neighborhoods and or any other neighborhoods that they are not supported in. 

Good black families will suffer.

Murder rates will skyrocket. (already up 30% last year, 70% in Minneapolis)

If you want to talk about systemic issues, if we keep going down this path that will have as great an impact as anything else they have overcome. We’re talking about thousands and thousands of good black folks feeling the impact of these high murder and crime rates.

 

 

 

I will add....The quality of police officer will drop. Significantly.    What you will end up having is a bunch of gun happy folks that are in these very important positions.  And accidental shootings and other mistakes will multiply.  

Seriously..Who in their right mind would want to be a cop right now? Especially in an urban area?

 

The number of candidates will drop, as will their quality.  Which will lead to a loosening of the requirements to pass..And that snowball will just roll on downhill

Edited by supermike80
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27 minutes ago, STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:

Here is what’s going to happen:

The police will stop policing black neighborhoods and or any other neighborhoods that they are not supported in. 

Good black families will suffer.

Murder rates will skyrocket. (already up 30% last year, 70% in Minneapolis)

If you want to talk about systemic issues, if we keep going down this path that will have as great an impact as anything else they have overcome. We’re talking about thousands and thousands of good black folks feeling the impact of these high murder and crime rates.

 

 

 

I don’t think this is going to happen at all. You know why? Because police are mostly good people, they’re not jerks, and only jerks would respond to calls for an end to racism and reasonable reform with “well then we’re just not going to police black neighborhoods any longer!” 
 

I suspect that what will happen instead is that the racists will get weeded out, certain practices will change, and policing will improve over time. 

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6 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I don’t think this is going to happen at all. You know why? Because police are mostly good people, they’re not jerks, and only jerks would respond to calls for an end to racism and reasonable reform with “well then we’re just not going to police black neighborhoods any longer!” 
 

I suspect that what will happen instead is that the racists will get weeded out, certain practices will change, and policing will improve over time. 

Preach Tim!  Did you want to review and/or opine on the study?

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11 minutes ago, djmich said:

Preach Tim!  Did you want to review and/or opine on the study?

No.

Protests occur when there is a desire for change. In this instance that change hasn’t occurred. Only if/when it does can we judge how effective the protests are.m

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11 minutes ago, timschochet said:

No.

Protests occur when there is a desire for change. In this instance that change hasn’t occurred. Only if/when it does can we judge how effective the protests are.m

We’ve had 50+ years to reflect, were the LA Watts riots or the Detroit riots effective?  Heck, it’s been 30 years almost since the South Central riots.  

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29 minutes ago, timschochet said:

No.

Protests occur when there is a desire for change. In this instance that change hasn’t occurred. Only if/when it does can we judge how effective the protests are.m

So you think we desire a reduction in police homicides?

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7 minutes ago, timschochet said:

No. Not necessarily. The folks who marched desire an end to systemic racism. 

 

57 minutes ago, timschochet said:

No.

Protests occur when there is a desire for change. In this instance that change hasn’t occurred. Only if/when it does can we judge how effective the protests are.m

Systemic racism will not end in our lifetimes.  Based on the definitions we've discussed in this forum for systemic racism and white supremacy technically they will never end because the definition has no quantifiable parameters.  So you will never be able to judge how effective the protests are based on your statements.

Do you happen to have a systemic racism meter you reference?

Typically outcomes would be a way to measure if systemic racism exists and if it is going up or down.  Police homicides of black people could be such a outcome.  I believe this is why the folks marching that as you described desire an end to systemic racism seem to do so more often around policing shootings?

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1 hour ago, djmich said:

 

Systemic racism will not end in our lifetimes.  Based on the definitions we've discussed in this forum for systemic racism and white supremacy technically they will never end because the definition has no quantifiable parameters.  So you will never be able to judge how effective the protests are based on your statements.

Do you happen to have a systemic racism meter you reference?

Typically outcomes would be a way to measure if systemic racism exists and if it is going up or down.  Police homicides of black people could be such a outcome.  I believe this is why the folks marching that as you described desire an end to systemic racism seem to do so more often around policing shootings?

You’ve hit on the main problem with the protests, which I tried to explain to my daughters when they participated in them: there are no measurable goals. They want an end to systemic racism and I am sympathetic to that. But no specifics. Perhaps the George Floyd bill will now be seen as a specific goal, but I’m not sure. 
 

Incidentally do you recall when Hillary Clinton in early 2016 met with leaders from Black Lives Matter? She made this exact point to them. They stood for nothing specific. They didn’t want to hear it and strongly supported Bernie. Then they stayed at home in November. It contributed to her defeat. 

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3 hours ago, timschochet said:

I don’t think this is going to happen at all. You know why? Because police are mostly good people, they’re not jerks, and only jerks would respond to calls for an end to racism and reasonable reform with “well then we’re just not going to police black neighborhoods any longer!” 
 

I suspect that what will happen instead is that the racists will get weeded out, certain practices will change, and policing will improve over time. 

 

In a few years there is going to be a shortage of law enforcement.   Nobody in their right mind will do the job.  Why put your life on the line for never ending crime and have your every action questioned?   It’s not like the pay is great   

Policing in urban areas is going to be cut back and crime is going to increase.   

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4 hours ago, STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:

Here is what’s going to happen:

The police will stop policing black neighborhoods and or any other neighborhoods that they are not supported in. 

Good black families will suffer.

Murder rates will skyrocket. (already up 30% last year, 70% in Minneapolis)

If you want to talk about systemic issues, if we keep going down this path that will have as great an impact as anything else they have overcome. We’re talking about thousands and thousands of good black folks feeling the impact of these high murder and crime rates.

 

 

 

yep, if I'm on duty and it's in the hood(hope that is still acceptable, but maybe not)  I don't go.

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2 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

 

In a few years there is going to be a shortage of law enforcement.   Nobody in their right mind will do the job.  Why put your life on the line for never ending crime and have your every action questioned?   It’s not like the pay is great   

Policing in urban areas is going to be cut back and crime is going to increase.   

My wife and I had this discussion over lunch on Sunday.  One of her best friends from college has a husband who was a police officer in one of the pretty heavy crime areas around our city.  He did get promoted to detective a few years back.  We were discussing how thankful they must be he's not out doing regular policing shifts anymore.  I don't know how anyone would want to do that job going forward.  I know most feel a calling for it but it has to deter and drive away many of those who once would have wanted to serve.

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5 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

 

In a few years there is going to be a shortage of law enforcement.   Nobody in their right mind will do the job.  Why put your life on the line for never ending crime and have your every action questioned?   It’s not like the pay is great   

Policing in urban areas is going to be cut back and crime is going to increase.   

So pay them more?  Enough money will stop that.  Id rather pay them like doctors but have higher expectations and requirements.  Make the pay higher in high crime areas.  And i do agree to an extent that it will weed out the bad ones and eventually lure the ones who truly want to be there. 

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39 minutes ago, PinkydaPimp said:

So pay them more?  Enough money will stop that.  Id rather pay them like doctors but have higher expectations and requirements.  Make the pay higher in high crime areas.  And i do agree to an extent that it will weed out the bad ones and eventually lure the ones who truly want to be there. 

Well, since this thread is about BLM, they dont support that. 

Quote

 

We know that police don’t keep us safe — and as long as we continue to pump money into our corrupt criminal justice system at the expense of housing, health, and education investments — we will never be truly safe.

That’s why we are calling to #DefundPolice and #InvestInCommunities — and in our new video, Black Lives Matter Managing Director Kailee Scales helps break down just how it works.

 

 

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37 minutes ago, PinkydaPimp said:

So pay them more?  Enough money will stop that.  Id rather pay them like doctors but have higher expectations and requirements.  Make the pay higher in high crime areas.  And i do agree to an extent that it will weed out the bad ones and eventually lure the ones who truly want to be there. 

Pay them more?   With what?   I thought the plan to improve policing was to defund the police.   

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45 minutes ago, Shula-holic said:

My wife and I had this discussion over lunch on Sunday.  One of her best friends from college has a husband who was a police officer in one of the pretty heavy crime areas around our city.  He did get promoted to detective a few years back.  We were discussing how thankful they must be he's not out doing regular policing shifts anymore.  I don't know how anyone would want to do that job going forward.  I know most feel a calling for it but it has to deter and drive away many of those who once would have wanted to serve.

You'd have to pay me multiple seven figures to put on a bulletproof jacket everyday. 

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17 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

Pay them more?   With what?   I thought the plan to improve policing was to defund the police.   

 

17 minutes ago, tonydead said:

Well, since this thread is about BLM, they dont support that. 

 

Defunding the police as many people call it is about re-allocating funds for an entire police department.  It doesnt necessarily mean pay officers less money.  Yes, its poorly branded.  Also, me personally, i would be fine with paying them more but asking for more.  Require a criminal justice degree, better training, etc.  Do that and i bet most people would jump on board.    And it might be possible to reallocate funds and pay them more while "defunding" police. 

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Just now, PinkydaPimp said:

 

Defunding the police as many people call it is about re-allocating funds for an entire police department.  It doesnt necessarily mean pay officers less money.  Yes, its poorly branded.  Also, me personally, i would be fine with paying them more but asking for more.  Require a criminal justice degree, better training, etc.  Do that and i bet most people would jump on board.    And it might be possible to reallocate funds and pay them more while "defunding" police. 

No it's not. Seattle police force down two hundred officers since city council voted to defund. Guess what, no super neat pay raises either. Your BLM is working against your idea. You better be careful what you ask for and who you support because it's already backfiring. 

 

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4 minutes ago, tonydead said:

No it's not. Seattle police force down two hundred officers since city council voted to defund. Guess what, no super neat pay raises either. Your BLM is working against your idea. You better be careful what you ask for and who you support because it's already backfiring. 

 

My idea is my idea.  i cant speak for what each precinct does nor does it mean i agree with how its fully implemented by them.   I dont think its being implemented the same way everywhere either.   

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Posted (edited)

Its been hit on a few times but there is this difficult balance around policing with the following ingredients.

The job would naturally tend to attract people that are inherently either comfortable with and/or attracted to physical confrontation.

When you put those people in confrontations, naturally in particular the latter are going to engage.

How do you get people less wired for confrontation into a confrontational job?  Can you go too far with that.

I generally support the idea that the more you pay the better you get, and I think thats true here but I'm uncertain the ROI is great.  I mean if we bump the pay up 50% are mild mannered accountants suddenly going to be interested?  You can require more degreed individuals or otherwise tighten the job requirements, but I think you still will naturally get folks prone to conflict.

One way to make the job more attractive to people who are not into conflict and otherwise just be more attractive to candidates is to reduce the amount of conflict.  Maybe decrease the scope with which police are "proactive".  Literally let people flee if they flee.  Only draw a gun if attacked or defending another person.  I am skeptical that can be done reasonably and that the correlated increase in crime and criminals escaping is acceptable...and of course once this is tactic is known its going to be a clownshow of people resisting/fleeing.

Edited by djmich
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Just now, PinkydaPimp said:

My idea is my idea.  i cant speak for what each precinct does nor does it mean i agree with how its fully implemented by them.   I dont think its being implemented the same way everywhere either.   

The thread is about BLM. Your idea is the exact opposite of what they want yet you support them. Give me one example where defund the police resulted in more police officers or higher pay. I wont hold my breath.  

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Higher pay always works. It's why I always thought we should make teachers a very high paid profession. Tired of crappy high school teachers, well stop attracting the bottom of the barrel work force. Defunding police, plus the spotlight, you wont be able to hire police officers if you wanted to in a few years. 

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5 minutes ago, djmich said:

Its been hit on a few times but there is this difficult balance around policing with the following ingredients.

The job would naturally tend to attract people that are inherently either comfortable with and/or attracted to physical confrontation.

When you put those people in confrontations, naturally in particular the latter are going to engage.

How do you get people less wired for confrontation into a confrontational job?  Can you go too far with that.

I generally support the idea that the more you pay the better you get, and I think thats true here but I'm uncertain the ROI is great here.  I mean if we bump the pay up 50% are mild mannered accountants suddenly going to be interested?  You can require more degreed individuals or otherwise tighten the job requirements, but I think you still will naturally get folks prone to conflict.

One way to make the job more attractive to people who are not into conflict and otherwise just be more attractive to candidates is to reduce the amount of conflict.  Maybe decrease the scope with which police are "proactive".  Literally let people flee if they flee.  Only draw a gun if attacked or defending another person.  I am skeptical that can be done reasonably and that the correlated increase in crime and criminals escaping is acceptable...and of course once this is tactic is known its going to be a clownshow of people resisting/fleeing.

These are good points.  I think the general thought behind defunding is to do exactly that.  Reduce the conflict

3 minutes ago, tonydead said:

The thread is about BLM. Your idea is the exact opposite of what they want yet you support them. Give me one example where defund the police resulted in more police officers or higher pay. I wont hold my breath.  

First, its possible to support some things a person, movement or group says and not all.  second...

https://money.yahoo.com/camden-nj-where-defunding-the-police-worked-didnt-really-defund-the-police-105251107.html

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First, it’s worth defining “defunding the police” as policymakers are debating it. Despite some opponents fear mongering with scenes from the movie “The Purge,” in which all crimes are made legal for a 12-hour period, the policy has more to do with allocating a city’s funding away from policing and more towards efforts that might reduce the need for policing, such as mental health resources, public education, or employee training programs. As House Speaker Nancy Pelosi recently summarized, “what it means is [with] the resources that we have, let us spend it in a way that gives the most protection for the American people — protection for their safety, protection for their rights.”

Camden though is a little bit different than defunding.  And im not sure we have a city where it has resulted in officers with higher pay even though i think it should( I will have to look though).  Also i would probably be ok with less officers and more quality officers. 
 

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4 minutes ago, tonydead said:

Higher pay always works. It's why I always thought we should make teachers a very high paid profession. Tired of crappy high school teachers, well stop attracting the bottom of the barrel work force. Defunding police, plus the spotlight, you wont be able to hire police officers if you wanted to in a few years. 

I think we agree here. But i do think you are making assumptions as to what most people want when they say defund police. 

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4 minutes ago, tonydead said:

Higher pay always works. It's why I always thought we should make teachers a very high paid profession. Tired of crappy high school teachers, well stop attracting the bottom of the barrel work force. Defunding police, plus the spotlight, you wont be able to hire police officers if you wanted to in a few years. 

Depends what you mean by always works.  There are diminishing returns.  If I pay my kids 3rd grade teacher $200k vs $50k you telling me I will get 4x the result.  What if my kid is a crappy student.  I think the "system" in a school + the parents + the students > any individual teacher.

I'd say the same for cops.

So I'm not saying we're paying the right amount, particularly if we are going to do things like remove qualified immunity, increase criminal pursuit and conviction rates amongst police...but I don't think it works as linearly or aggressively as you might think without the overall system + training, etc.

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3 minutes ago, PinkydaPimp said:

I think we agree here. But i do think you are making assumptions as to what most people want when they say defund police. 

:lmao:. You ain't going to pay them like doctors without funding them. If you think its something different than what "most people" want why cant you show me one example of that? 

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4 minutes ago, djmich said:

Depends what you mean by always works.  There are diminishing returns.  If I pay my kids 3rd grade teacher $200k vs $50k you telling me I will get 4x the result.  What if my kid is a crappy student.  I think the "system" in a school + the parents + the students > any individual teacher.

I'd say the same for cops.

So I'm not saying we're paying the right amount, particularly if we are going to do things like remove qualified immunity, increase criminal pursuit and conviction rates amongst police...but I don't think it works as linearly or aggressively as you might think without the overall system + training, etc.

Ok you got me there, a really good teacher cant replace parents. But I do think you'd get multiple times better talent for those prices. Definitely. 

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4 minutes ago, tonydead said:

:lmao:. You ain't going to pay them like doctors without funding them. If you think its something different than what "most people" want why cant you show me one example of that? 

Because it hasn't been implemented many places yet.  Maybe give it some time?  I don't think i have seen a city where its been implemented how its described yet.  

So if a city could find a way to pay officers more, maybe reduce the number since you feel many will leave anyway, and address the bolded that i posted above, would you be ok with it?

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1 minute ago, PinkydaPimp said:

Because it hasn't been implemented many places yet.  Maybe give it some time?  I don't think i have seen a city where its been implemented how its described yet.  

So if a city could find a way to pay officers more, maybe reduce the number since you feel many will leave anyway, and address the bolded that i posted above, would you be ok with it?

 :bs:

It happening.

Quote

 

The council in recent weeks has heard dire warnings from officials with the police department and the mayor’s office about the possible impacts of budget cuts. The department has seen a record number of departures recently — 186 in 2020 — most of whom have not been replaced because of hiring freezes across the city. Interim Police Chief Adrian Diaz called the shrinking staff levels a “crisis” that would lead to longer 911 response times and fewer resources for investigations.

At the same time, the council’s budget actions are facing increased scrutiny from an independent monitor, Antonio Oftelie, who was appointed as part of the nearly decade-old federal oversight of the Seattle Police Department. In a letter Monday, Oftelie questioned how further cuts to the police would impact the department’s ability to respond to 911 calls and asked for more details about how the city planned to supplant law enforcement with community alternatives.

 

I backed up my claim and you cant provide me one example of what "most people" mean by defund the police. BLM's website contradicts your "most people" claim. Respectfully, get out of here with your imagination.  

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6 minutes ago, PinkydaPimp said:

Because it hasn't been implemented many places yet.  Maybe give it some time?  I don't think i have seen a city where its been implemented how its described yet.  

So if a city could find a way to pay officers more, maybe reduce the number since you feel many will leave anyway, and address the bolded that i posted above, would you be ok with it?

My understanding was the defunding the police idea (yes, terrible branding) was an effort to have less police - in that instead of JUST police responding to things, you could have social workers, negotiators, etc..  basically more specialized positions.  And yes, there is still police.   Maybe this idea wasn't what some had in mind, and it might not be what some cities have tried, but this is a reason I was on board a bit about the idea.   In this scenario, it's possible to defund the police while still having higher paid and trained police.  

Also I thought part of the "defunding" was an attempt to get some stations looking less like military units with their gear and vehicles.  

 

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5 minutes ago, tonydead said:

 :bs:

It happening.

I backed up my claim and you cant provide me one example of what "most people" mean by defund the police. BLM's website contradicts your "most people" claim. Respectfully, get out of here with your imagination.  

Your link says the salary savings were from police leaving.  that doesnt sound like a cut to me.  Do you have more data?  How can you be sure it cant be done they way ive said?  Give it a little time. 

Also isnt this thread for discussing these ideas?  I cant agree with the concept and suggest it be implemented better? 

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