djmich
Footballguy
LINK
1. We shouldn't confuse BLM with police reform. In theory, police reform can happen without BLM protests. So I don't think the data should be used to argue that improvements in police can't be achieved without negative impacts. And on the other side, improvements in policing can very often have some sort of associated downside in weakened police effectiveness.
2. If a life is a life...then the data would indicate that BLM is a net life loss. 3.3 - 20X more than gained when compared to reduced police homicides. This ignores that the bulk of BLM protests seem to take hold from a dozen or less individual cases in any year. Again, if you believe the correlation protesting these dozen results in ~3,000 incremental deaths.
3. I'd argue that a life is not a life. Generally speaking police homicides are committed upon criminals and are greatly impacted by non compliance of suspects. It is an exception of an exception where a police homicide is not in the act of a physical encounter with a criminal or a suspect escalating to a point where the police unintentionally, but unlawfully kill someone. That is no way is to say any homicide is good, none are. Even the knife woman that was shot because she was going to stab the pink woman...we don't want that to happen. That said, homicides not committed by the police can be often committed by criminals upon criminals, but also with great frequency upon innocent civilians. So there was a reduction of 300 police killings, very many of which may have been the same criminals that contributed to the increase of 1,000-6,000 homicides of law abiding citizens.
Lastly, I don't think either number should be surprising. I would think that wrong or right, police will either self-withdraw or as we saw in certain localities, be forced to withdraw. That will result in police "policing" less and as a result killing less people (and they do tend to more often than not kill criminals). And of course, when they are withdrawn, criminals have more free reign to kill fellow citizens.
Discuss
From 2014 to 2019, Campbell tracked more than 1,600 BLM protests across the country, largely in bigger cities, with nearly 350,000 protesters. His main finding is a 15 to 20 percent reduction in lethal use of force by police officers — roughly 300 fewer police homicides — in census places that saw BLM protests.
Couple thoughts, assuming the data shows at least a directionally believable patternCampbell’s research also indicates that these protests correlate with a 10 percent increase in murders in the areas that saw BLM protests. That means from 2014 to 2019, there were somewhere between 1,000 and 6,000 more homicides than would have been expected if places with protests were on the same trend as places that did not have protests.
1. We shouldn't confuse BLM with police reform. In theory, police reform can happen without BLM protests. So I don't think the data should be used to argue that improvements in police can't be achieved without negative impacts. And on the other side, improvements in policing can very often have some sort of associated downside in weakened police effectiveness.
2. If a life is a life...then the data would indicate that BLM is a net life loss. 3.3 - 20X more than gained when compared to reduced police homicides. This ignores that the bulk of BLM protests seem to take hold from a dozen or less individual cases in any year. Again, if you believe the correlation protesting these dozen results in ~3,000 incremental deaths.
3. I'd argue that a life is not a life. Generally speaking police homicides are committed upon criminals and are greatly impacted by non compliance of suspects. It is an exception of an exception where a police homicide is not in the act of a physical encounter with a criminal or a suspect escalating to a point where the police unintentionally, but unlawfully kill someone. That is no way is to say any homicide is good, none are. Even the knife woman that was shot because she was going to stab the pink woman...we don't want that to happen. That said, homicides not committed by the police can be often committed by criminals upon criminals, but also with great frequency upon innocent civilians. So there was a reduction of 300 police killings, very many of which may have been the same criminals that contributed to the increase of 1,000-6,000 homicides of law abiding citizens.
Lastly, I don't think either number should be surprising. I would think that wrong or right, police will either self-withdraw or as we saw in certain localities, be forced to withdraw. That will result in police "policing" less and as a result killing less people (and they do tend to more often than not kill criminals). And of course, when they are withdrawn, criminals have more free reign to kill fellow citizens.
Discuss
Last edited by a moderator: