Kyle Pitts vs. OJ Howard (1 Viewer)

Alright - to set the scene, OJ Howard was one of the more/most hyped players coming out of college.  Howard coming out of Alabama, was being hyped as a ‘generational’ talent and a ‘freak of nature’ at TE - one to which teams could build around - a foundation piece.  We all watched his tape coming out of school - and loved him.  
 

Fast forward a few years and here we sit again...  Kyle Pitts.  Freak of Nature, Megatron, will be a game changer at the next level for whichever team takes him, can line him up anywhere, is a matchup nightmare......

Sounds eerily familiar.

To set the record straight, I’m in on Pitts and believe him to be the real deal.  He’s got all the makings to be a stud in the NFL - 

 So what’s the difference between OJ Howard and Kyle Pitts...?  

Howard wasn’t drafted into the ‘ideal’ situation (Minn.) - but we’ve seen 2 TEs flourish in the same system (as recently as Ertz/Goeddert....  with a best case scenario Gronk/Hernandez) - so it’s possible. To his credit, Howard has begun to show signs - but game changer, unbelievable talent, foundation piece - the jury is still out...... Way out.   

What makes Kyle Pitts the next ‘great’ TE -

What’s being seen in him that’s elevated his stock to such heights. Is it because this isn’t one of the stronger TE classes coming out and it’s elevating his stock/position across draft boards?  

Some are setting up to select this young man with a top 3 pick in their upcoming dynasty/keeper leagues drafts. Are they crazy - or are they ahead of the curve?

What makes Kyle Pitts so special where OJ Howard was not?

Let me say this another way.

If you watch them play football...you know the difference.

for starters: compare their college production

I don't know how their metrics lineup against each other, but clearly college production is the biggest difference between these 2. Howard had 114 career receptions, 1726 yards and 7 TDs. In one less season Pitts had just 14 less total catches, a few hundred less total yards, and 11 more TDs. 

Here is the simplest explanation...there have been other freakishly athletic TE that have come before Pitts (and most have been disappointments)...the difference (and it is beyond a big one) is Pitts is the only one I can think of (maybe Winslow Senior was the other one) who seems to have a full grasp on how to play the position at this point of his career...the kid has zero warts...he is far more than a pretty face!

I don't know what it is with Howard.  Is it scheme, or what's between his ears?  He has been a bust so far given the hype he had.  The same thing could happen to Pitts and would be pretty bad for a fantasy team to pass on a stud for him if that happens.  The thing is, you can't judge Pitts by Howard.  There are too many factors at play here.  You can't control who drafts him, how they use him, or his desire to develop.  It's always going to be a gamble to some degree.  The only thing you can do is process all the information in front of you and make an educated guess.

I could see Tampa Bay trading OJ Howard on Draft Day in order to move up or down, I can't see them actually picking up a 5th year option on the guy so maybe it would be best for them to cut their losses and move on. There are prospects in this Draft they can take long after Pitts and shave about $5M in cap space vs what Howard is owed this season, cost them almost nothing to part way with him other than the 1st Rd investment. I still think teams would trade for him, 3rd round/4th round, maybe that is worth something to the Bucs who can package that with the 32 and move up if they want to get a better prospect at whatever position they want but another Edge guy to eventually unseat Shaq or JPP would be ideal for them. 

A really good sign you have a bulletproof player on your hands is when people list the pros and cons, and the main negative is, 'this other guy didn't work out at the same position'.  

If you think about it, why aren't we slagging off Waddle and Devonta, because Jeudy and Ruggs didn't impress?  

If you have to go back to Vernon Davis to find a comp, you are in unusual territory.  It's very weird that Pitts being a TE is somehow making people nervous, because........TJ Hockensen.  

You reach for RB because if they hit, OMG.  You get 4 stud years, out of these guy, if you lucky.  If you can get a gamechanger at TE, you're getting a guy at a more rare spot, for much longer.  

Andy Dufresne said:

Let me say this another way.

If you watch them play football...you know the difference.

Click to expand...

There has to be a more original way to tear down a prospect without the boring trope of comparing him to another hyped prospect at the same position that failed.

I will say - I am coming around on Pitts.  I really hate that the media buzz drove the price up on this guy.  Before his pro-day and everyone hyping him up to be the next Travis Kelce, I had a shot at him at 1.07.  Now, not a chance he is there past 4.  I guess that is the way fantasy life is and always has been.

In defense of OJ Howard and his "college production" - he wasn't what Pitts was (not because he couldn't) but because of the identity of the 2 teams.  Florida didn't have a running game and Bama had almost 3 thousand yard rushers in Howard's final season.  There is bust potential with Pitts.  It is possible Kyle Pitt's never reaches the production he is being hyped to, but that can be said about any pick.  

Any remarks being made about Pitts' blocking and bust potential (I am guilty of) is just trying to argue with myself on whether he is worth a top pick.  I have since traded for the first pick in this draft and am really needy at RB (CMC, Gibson, Gordon, Drake, Fournette) and I have a decent TE group (Hockenson, Goedert, OJ Howard, Kmet).  I'm stuck between 2 generational talents, positional need and knowing my 1.07 will still have one of the 1st round studs available but likely a WR.  

In addition to Pitts having superior stats, Pitts is a lot more polished. Howard was always a bit of a projection.

In Howard's defense, he hasn't been a bust per se. He was very good in 2018, and looked like he was going to have a very good year last season before he got hurt. He was outplaying Gronk before his injury. If Howard doesn't get injured, I think its possible Tampa never signs Antonio Brown, and maybe we are looking at Howard differently.

Pitts is just a completely different level. I truly can't think of a TE that was anywhere near this good as a prospect (I've been following the draft since 2001) If Pitts were a WR, he'd be the #1 WR in the draft too, and maybe the #1 WR in the last several drafts. He's basically the same level of athlete as Chase Claypool, but 2 inches taller and 15 pounds heavier, and probably a better route runner. 

OJ Howard's value and hype were also blown up due to his monster championship game. He looked unstoppable. Pitts has been more steady, at that same unstoppable level.

They are both extremely highly rated TE prospects but that's mostly where the similarities end.  As actual prospects they could not be more polar opposites imo.

OJH was a complete TE whose elite blocking would allow him to stay on the field and gave him what most people saw as a very high floor.  People thought he could be an elite receiver but that was mostly projected as he had never actually performed that way.

Pitts is a one dimensional receiving TE who has a very low floor but an extremely high ceiling.  His potential for elite production comes not just from his athleticism, but his actual elite production he's put forward on the field against NFL caliber DBs/LBs.