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ROOKIE DYNASTY 21 - Rnd 1 - Top 3 and a cliff?


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18 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Would be a good experiment to go through the last few years and look at guys who rose due to situation and whether it worked out or not. Vaughn and CEH look like examples for why it's a bad idea. Any other names come to mind from recent years? 

Vaughn is the best example and tie him in with Jefferson.  because a lot of people had to make that choice.  

  • Positional value! OMG, if this back hits, yada yada yada.  
  • "Thielen plays the same position as Jefferson. Not sure how much opportunity he gets"
  • Backfield is wide open for Vaughn. 

Here's another, Zach Moss had a higher ADP last year than Antonio Gibson, because Gibson was arriving in a crowed backfield.  A year later, and Gibson is the Alpha male.  Just as athletes, it was a joke comparison.  Gibson is a Ferrari, Zach Moss is a diesel station wagon.  

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27 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Would be a good experiment to go through the last few years and look at guys who rose due to situation and whether it worked out or not. Vaughn and CEH look like examples for why it's a bad idea. Any other names come to mind from recent years? 

I'm missing something here. CEH was an rb2 as a rookie, did people expect him to be top 10 in his first year? 

I'm not sure why anyone was expecting a lot from Vaughn, although they didn't have LF at this time last year. 

Josh jacobs and Antonio Gibson should have risen some due to situation. They've done fine. Obviously there will be those who didn't rise to the occasion.

Maybe I'm misremembering but I don't remember WFT's backfield being a bad situation. At least it wasn't by the end of the summer.

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5 minutes ago, massraider said:

Vaughn is the best example and tie him in with Jefferson.  because a lot of people had to make that choice.  

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I guess this is where league format matters. JJ was a mid first in my leagues. Vaughn a mid 2nd. (Slightly before Gibson)

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3 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Maybe I'm misremembering but I don't remember WFT's backfield being a bad situation. At least it wasn't by the end of the summer.

It's in the Gibson thread. People thought it was, in general, not a great opportunity.  

Peterson, Barber, people were clinging to Guice, and not everyone was sure that he was a RB at all.  And he wen to WAS. No excitement there.  

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Just now, massraider said:

It's in the Gibson thread. People thought it was, in general, not a great opportunity.  

Peterson, Barber, people were clinging to Guice, and not everyone was sure that he was a RB at all.  And he wen to WAS. No excitement there.  

The last part I get for sure. And guice, what could have been.

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3 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

I'm missing something here. CEH was an rb2 as a rookie, did people expect him to be top 10 in his first year? 

I'm not sure why anyone was expecting a lot from Vaughn, although they didn't have LF at this time last year. 

Josh jacobs and Antonio Gibson should have risen some due to situation. They've done fine. Obviously there will be those who didn't rise to the occasion.

Maybe I'm misremembering but I don't remember WFT's backfield being a bad situation. At least it wasn't by the end of the summer.

CEH was going 1.01 in dynasty drafts and among the top six in redraft. He flopped per his ADP in both areas. Nobody thought he looked the part of the 1.01 last year. He was drafted because of opportunity for the most part. "A first-round RB in KC? Gimme some!"

Vaughn was widely considered the favorite for the job because there was only the beleaguered and not-ready-for-primetime Ronald Jones there. 

Gibson was in a logjam with a bunch of guys ahead of him. Peterson, Guice before the sex assault charges, Love, and Barber were all there. 

Perhaps you view the situations or circumstances differently, but this was the accepted narrative last year around this time. 

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Just now, -OZ- said:

I guess this is where league format matters. JJ was a mid first in my leagues. Vaughn a mid 2nd. (Slightly before Gibson)

http://dev.nflprophet.com/zf_board.htm

A pretty good dynasty ADP list, the Zealots leagues.  

10 for Jefferson, and 13 for Vaughn.  

Just in my limited 4 leagues, Vaughn went 10, 11, 10, and 15.  He DID go behind Jefferson in those drafts.  

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46 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Would be a good experiment to go through the last few years and look at guys who rose due to situation and whether it worked out or not. Vaughn and CEH look like examples for why it's a bad idea. Any other names come to mind from recent years? 

Hunt and Kamara.

The reality is that both talent and situation matter.  Sometimes talent overwhelms situation.  Sometimes situation overwhelms talent.  There is no right answer.

Generally, I think leaning on the side of talent is the winning play in the long term, but I think people are picking on situation too much in this thread.  I think it's highly unlikely that Jonathan Taylor would be valued where he is right now if it were the Jets that had taken him in round 2 last year.  And where would Joe Mixon be if he and Dalvin Cook had swapped landing spots when they were drafted?

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40 minutes ago, kerpow said:

Darrell Henderson, Mecole Hardman.....the list goes on

Henderson? Maybe I don't remember that well but didn't people like him before he was drafted and was LA really seen as a great landing spot after Gurley had 1800/21 the year before?

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

Henderson? Maybe I don't remember that well but didn't people like him before he was drafted and was LA really seen as a great landing spot after Gurley had 1800/21 the year before?

My memory aligns with yours. His situation was initially considered kind of a negative because it looked like he was buried behind Gurley. I liked him as a prospect before the draft.

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4 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

My memory aligns with yours. His situation was initially considered kind of a negative because it looked like he was buried behind Gurley. I liked him as a prospect before the draft.

Henderson I think was kind of tricky because situation moved him both ways.

After being drafted initially it bumped him down.  Then as more news came out about Gurley's knee he started bouncing back from it and became a really hot name.

Ultimately in the end he ended up probably somewhat flat relative to his pre-draft value.

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21 minutes ago, woodstock said:

CEH was going 1.01 in dynasty drafts and among the top six in redraft. He flopped per his ADP in both areas. Nobody thought he looked the part of the 1.01 last year. He was drafted because of opportunity for the most part. "A first-round RB in KC? Gimme some!"

Vaughn was widely considered the favorite for the job because there was only the beleaguered and not-ready-for-primetime Ronald Jones there. 

Gibson was in a logjam with a bunch of guys ahead of him. Peterson, Guice before the sex assault charges, Love, and Barber were all there. 

Perhaps you view the situations or circumstances differently, but this was the accepted narrative last year around this time. 

I was, and still am, a R Jones owner, so I might have been biased against vaughn. 

CEH is still ranked somewhere around a low RB1, high RB2 in dynasty. I don't expect more than a RB2 from any rookie. He looked like a rookie at times but he didn't lose much value from what I can tell. I've never drafted a rookie in the first round in redraft. Others might but it seems like a risk not worth taking. 

I'm not sure if I take CEH over Harris today. Probably Harris, but that has much more to do with my being a bama fan than anything against CEH.

To be sure there are rookies who don't meet the hype for situation. 

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The trickiest part about the talent vs. situation thing is there is really no good definition of talent, and no good way to judge whether a guy succeeded because of talent or situation and whether a guy failed because of talent or situation.

For instance people are referencing guys like Penny and Sony as guys who were bumped up because of situation and failed.  But they were 1st round NFL draft picks, drafted in roughly the same spot as ETN.  They were the 2nd and 3rd RBs drafted in the NFL draft and the 3rd and 4th RBs drafted in most fantasy drafts, so how much of a bump did situation really give them when they went later in fantasy than they did in the NFL? 

It's a total hindsight move to look back now and say those guys were obviously just mediocre players who were bumped up because of situation.  There were plenty of people at the time that thought guys like Penny or Sony were the 2nd or 3rd most TALENTED backs in that draft.

Rashaad Penny was the 28th overall pick in the NFL draft and the 2nd RB taken that year behind only the greatest RB prospect of our lives.

Travis Etienne was the 25th overall pick in the NFL draft and the 2nd RB taken this year behind a decent RB prospect.

Why are we so sure that ETN = obvious talent and Penny/Sony never had any?  Take their NFL performances away and there are I'm sure plenty of people that would have rated Penny or Sony higher than ETN as a prospect.  

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7 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

My memory aligns with yours. His situation was initially considered kind of a negative because it looked like he was buried behind Gurley. I liked him as a prospect before the draft.

Yeah he has had a weird dynasty ride. Was an exciting prospect coming out of Memphis then a team with a RB who was basically the best offensive player in football drafts him. Then it comes out that RB has a degenerative knee issue and he might not ever be the same again. Despite Gurley's struggles, they don't play Henderson much. Year 2 they cut Gurley and it looks like the Henderson show is starting. Then in the draft they take Akers and Henderson's value is down again. But wait, the first half of 2020 Henderson is getting a ton of carries and PFF grades him as their best RB. To close the season, he's back to the bench and Akers absolutely dominates the Rams offense. All these swings in 2 years. 

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5 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

I was, and still am, a R Jones owner, so I might have been biased against vaughn. 

CEH is still ranked somewhere around a low RB1, high RB2 in dynasty. I don't expect more than a RB2 from any rookie. He looked like a rookie at times but he didn't lose much value from what I can tell. I've never drafted a rookie in the first round in redraft. Others might but it seems like a risk not worth taking. 

I'm not sure if I take CEH over Harris today. Probably Harris, but that has much more to do with my being a bama fan than anything against CEH.

To be sure there are rookies who don't meet the hype for situation. 

The thing with CEH is he was seen as probably a late 1st, early 2nd round guy. Maybe like the way Gainwell or Carter are viewed now. Then the Chiefs take him and he vaults into 1.01 spot. While he performed fine last year, I suspect most dynasty rankings have more like the 5th-7th most valued asset from the 2020 class. 

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8 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

The trickiest part about the talent vs. situation thing is there is really no good definition of talent, and no good way to judge whether a guy succeeded because of talent or situation and whether a guy failed because of talent or situation.

For instance people are referencing guys like Penny and Sony as guys who were bumped up because of situation and failed.  But they were 1st round NFL draft picks, drafted in roughly the same spot as ETN.  They were the 2nd and 3rd RBs drafted in the NFL draft and the 3rd and 4th RBs drafted in most fantasy drafts, so how much of a bump did situation really give them when they went later in fantasy than they did in the NFL? 

It's a total hindsight move to look back now and say those guys were obviously just mediocre players who were bumped up because of situation.  There were plenty of people at the time that thought guys like Penny or Sony were the 2nd or 3rd most TALENTED backs in that draft.

Rashaad Penny was the 28th overall pick in the NFL draft and the 2nd RB taken that year behind only the greatest RB prospect of our lives.

Travis Etienne was the 25th overall pick in the NFL draft and the 2nd RB taken this year behind a decent RB prospect.

Why are we so sure that ETN = obvious talent and Penny/Sony never had any?  Take their NFL performances away and there are I'm sure plenty of people that would have rated Penny or Sony higher than ETN as a prospect.  

I think ETN is objectively a better prospect than Penny or Sony. Just look at college production and level of competition. ETN surpasses them by a lot. However, I agree with you that we are maybe forgetting how much people liked Penny and Sony predraft. I heard a lot of people comp Sony to Kamara and Penny was a size/speed speciman that was grouped by many analysts predraft as being in the same tier as Chubb and Guice. 

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7 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I think ETN is objectively a better prospect than Penny or Sony. Just look at college production and level of competition. ETN surpasses them by a lot. However, I agree with you that we are maybe forgetting how much people liked Penny and Sony predraft. I heard a lot of people comp Sony to Kamara and Penny was a size/speed speciman that was grouped by many analysts predraft as being in the same tier as Chubb and Guice. 

Further complicating the situation vs. talent debate when looking at pre-draft/post-draft rankings is that there is no way to define the amount a player rose due to an increase in perceived talent relative to the situation.

Part of the allure of guys like CEH/Sony/Penny after the draft is that they were picked earlier in the draft than anticipated, which caused people to re-evaluate their talent.  CEH/Sony/Penny would not have had the same value they did if they were 3rd round picks by KC/NE/Seattle.  Teams grabbing them early made people more excited about their talent as well.

Penny is the perfect example.  How quickly we forget the buzz around Penny's TALENT after draft night.  Remember Seattle said they would have drafted him even earlier (mid 1st) if they had to, and then there were all the reports that there were other teams were trying to trade up for Penny too, even including the exceedingly rare post draft-pick offer for Penny where another team tried to trade for him after he was picked.  Even more crazy is the rumor was that the team that did that was the Browns, who apparently desperately wanted Penny but had to settle for Chubb.

So it's easy to look back now and say "oh yeah clearly the right move was to grab the more talented Chubb over the better situation Penny".  But at the time was that really a universal opinion, especially given that even the team that drafted Chubb at the time reportedly heavily preferred Penny to Chubb?

https://twitter.com/MikeSilver/status/989702462599659521

https://247sports.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/Article/Seahawks-got-trade-offer-for-Rashaad-Penny-could-have-been-Browns-117738099/

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1 hour ago, -OZ- said:

 

I don't know about Fields. In some maybe. But I won't let Lawrence get past any of my late 1sts.

 

1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Lance too is in play. He may not start right away but he's walking into a heck of set-up

It's still early for planning (well, have a couple weeks to prep, aka overthink this), but I'm in a similar dilemma with my main IDP dynasty - how early to take a QB. I could use a QB as really only have Tannehill as a stop gap (with Dalton). I have the 3 pick which looks to be the easy pick once 1 and 2 decide who they are taking, then have the 7 and the 17. Debating if I take QB at 7 which seems too early but fills a need, or do I wait until 17 and take whichever of the QBs makes it there. Ahh, my favorite time of the year

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59 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Further complicating the situation vs. talent debate when looking at pre-draft/post-draft rankings is that there is no way to define the amount a player rose due to an increase in perceived talent relative to the situation.

Part of the allure of guys like CEH/Sony/Penny after the draft is that they were picked earlier in the draft than anticipated, which caused people to re-evaluate their talent.  CEH/Sony/Penny would not have had the same value they did if they were 3rd round picks by KC/NE/Seattle.  Teams grabbing them early made people more excited about their talent as well.

Penny is the perfect example.  How quickly we forget the buzz around Penny's TALENT after draft night.  Remember Seattle said they would have drafted him even earlier (mid 1st) if they had to, and then there were all the reports that there were other teams were trying to trade up for Penny too, even including the exceedingly rare post draft-pick offer for Penny where another team tried to trade for him after he was picked.  Even more crazy is the rumor was that the team that did that was the Browns, who apparently desperately wanted Penny but had to settle for Chubb.

So it's easy to look back now and say "oh yeah clearly the right move was to grab the more talented Chubb over the better situation Penny".  But at the time was that really a universal opinion, especially given that even the team that drafted Chubb at the time reportedly heavily preferred Penny to Chubb?

https://twitter.com/MikeSilver/status/989702462599659521

https://247sports.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/Article/Seahawks-got-trade-offer-for-Rashaad-Penny-could-have-been-Browns-117738099/

I might be completely wrong but if Penny hadn't gotten injured, I think he'd be starting. Not chubb level. But not a bust.

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

I think ETN is objectively a better prospect than Penny or Sony. Just look at college production and level of competition. ETN surpasses them by a lot. However, I agree with you that we are maybe forgetting how much people liked Penny and Sony predraft. I heard a lot of people comp Sony to Kamara and Penny was a size/speed speciman that was grouped by many analysts predraft as being in the same tier as Chubb and Guice. 

Agreed on level of competition (of course the counter argument is he had perhaps the best QB in recent memory to help him) but production? 5th most yards in a season, ever. 🤷🏽‍♂️

Player Yds Year School

1 Barry Sanders 2628 1988 Oklahoma State

2 Melvin Gordon* 2587 2014 Wisconsin

3 Kevin Smith* 2567 2007 UCF

4 Marcus Allen* 2427 1981 USC

5 Rashaad Penny* 2248 2017 San Diego State

6 Derrick Henry* 2219 2015 Alabama

7 Jonathan Taylor* 2194 2018 Wisconsin

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3 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Agreed on level of competition (of course the counter argument is he had perhaps the best QB in recent memory to help him) but production? 5th most yards in a season, ever. 🤷🏽‍♂️

Player Yds Year School

1 Barry Sanders 2628 1988 Oklahoma State

2 Melvin Gordon* 2587 2014 Wisconsin

3 Kevin Smith* 2567 2007 UCF

4 Marcus Allen* 2427 1981 USC

5 Rashaad Penny* 2248 2017 San Diego State

6 Derrick Henry* 2219 2015 Alabama

7 Jonathan Taylor* 2194 2018 Wisconsin

Look at their entire careers. Look at what ETN did as a freshman, sophomore and junior when Penny was still playing behind Donnel Pumphrey. Also Pumphrey's career blows Penny's away. Penny had an amazing season but ETN had one of the greatest collegiate RB careers of this millennium. ETN has the 15th most yards from scrimmage in NCAA history. 

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

Look at their entire careers. Look at what ETN did as a freshman, sophomore and junior when Penny was still playing behind Donnel Pumphrey. Also Pumphrey's career blows Penny's away. Penny had an amazing season but ETN had one of the greatest collegiate RB careers of this millennium. ETN has the 15th most yards from scrimmage in NCAA history. 

Fair enough. And I actually agree that ETN is a better prospect than Penny was. I'm just saying I can't knock Pennywise for lack of production.

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2 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Fair enough. And I actually agree that ETN is a better prospect than Penny was. I'm just saying I can't knock Pennywise for lack of production.

I think we agree on that. I was really excited about Penny going into the draft and then when he went round 1 to Seattle, I thought he was going to be huge for fantasy. 

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8 hours ago, dewaser said:

I can see Javonte going to the Broncos, which would put him in a tier below Chase/Harris/Pitts, in with Smith/Waddle. I think the Chargers, Raiders, Lions, and Chiefs will be in play for Elijah Moore, Terrace Marshall, and maybe Rondale Moore. If any of those guys go to LAC/GB/KC, I'd put them in with Smith/Waddle/Williams.

But yes, it's looking more and more like there is a clear tier of 3 that are separate from the rest. 

Called it

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12 hours ago, massraider said:

Vaughn is the best example and tie him in with Jefferson.  because a lot of people had to make that choice.  

  • Positional value! OMG, if this back hits, yada yada yada.  
  • "Thielen plays the same position as Jefferson. Not sure how much opportunity he gets"
  • Backfield is wide open for Vaughn. 

Here's another, Zach Moss had a higher ADP last year than Antonio Gibson, because Gibson was arriving in a crowed backfield.  A year later, and Gibson is the Alpha male.  Just as athletes, it was a joke comparison.  Gibson is a Ferrari, Zach Moss is a diesel station wagon.  

I can't fit a single bag of groceries into a stupid Ferrari. Gotta keep it garaged. Plus I'm not 5'7". Guaran-effin-tee someone scratches the paint job and have you seen the insurance and taxes on one of those? JK but to your point yes the narrative was complicated at the time. All of that worked in the favor of making Gibson an incredible value. If he had been taken at the same spot but into an empty backfield where the only question was that he played WR, would he have gone much higher? Probably. But while we're BSing Moss might be the guy to own in Buffalo. I'm not convinced yet but he did survive rounds 1-3. I am (not so) secretly hoping they take Hubbard or Hill tomorrow in the early 4th. 

11 hours ago, massraider said:

It's in the Gibson thread. People thought it was, in general, not a great opportunity.  

Peterson, Barber, people were clinging to Guice, and not everyone was sure that he was a RB at all.  And he wen to WAS. No excitement there.  

Yeah there were lots of reasons for him to slide.

11 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Hunt and Kamara.

The reality is that both talent and situation matter.  Sometimes talent overwhelms situation.  Sometimes situation overwhelms talent.  There is no right answer.

Generally, I think leaning on the side of talent is the winning play in the long term, but I think people are picking on situation too much in this thread. 

Yes it doesn't have to be a binary false dichotomy. We're trying to synthesize info from various sources to make judgement calls here. I agree talent trumps situation in the long run or as a tiebreaker in most rookie decisions. But we can point to dozens of examples of league winning situations. 

4 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

Etienne went at pick 11 and pick 19 in two startups I saw.  

In one, traded for Mixon straight up today.

This is why drafting rookies super early in a startup BEFORE the NFL draft isnt a great idea

I couldn't disagree more. There are *going* to be misses. But the value to be had prior to the NFL draft is just stupid. I can point to so many examples of how doing startups before the NFL draft paid off big time re:rookies that were undervalued. 

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

 

I couldn't disagree more. There are *going* to be misses. But the value to be had prior to the NFL draft is just stupid. I can point to so many examples of how doing startups before the NFL draft paid off big time re:rookies that were undervalued. 

I said "super early"

What value is there in drafting a rookie in the 1st round of a startup (Unless it is a Barkley or AP type of talent) before the NFL draft??

A perfect landing spot doesnt even increase the value.  Meanwhile, their stock can plummet with the wrong landing spot

 

Edited by ghostguy123
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Just now, IHEARTFF said:

is Trey Sermon more Akers/Hunt or Vaughn/Henderson?

Latter, IMO.

Also, not sure I could dislike the landing spots for a majority of the prospects from rounds 1-3 much more than I do.  Strongly dislike how this draft played out, especially for late 1st picks.

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1 minute ago, SayWhat? said:

Latter, IMO.

Also, not sure I could dislike the landing spots for a majority of the prospects from rounds 1-3 much more than I do.  Strongly dislike how this draft played out, especially for late 1st picks.

yeah nfl teams are not interested in our fantasy teams, that is for sure

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Just now, IHEARTFF said:

yeah nfl teams are not interested in our fantasy teams, that is for sure

QB landing spots were good

TE landing spots are good

WR is hit and miss

RB big 3 Harris good, ETN might be good, Javonte wait a year

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3 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

Latter, IMO.

Also, not sure I could dislike the landing spots for a majority of the prospects from rounds 1-3 much more than I do.  Strongly dislike how this draft played out, especially for late 1st picks.

I think I agree. Glad I loaded up/traded up on picks 1-8 where I could.

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I kicked almost all of my 2021 picks in my five leagues down the road for increased 2022 draft capital. Not sure what that class holds but I only currently  hold a 1.05 and 4.04 in all of my five leagues combined. With a few of the landing spots I'm okay with this.  I'll have to pick up some scraps off the WW week 1 but maybe can use 2022 capital to get slow starting rookies in bad "situations" that I like talent wise for cheaper in season than would have in the draft itself. we will see.

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Sermon gets a big bump.  1.08 feels about right.  

I have late first round picks, and to me the QBs probably get bumps now as well.  The ceiling for Lawrence, Lance, and Fields is so high, it might not be exciting taking a QB late 1st, but Terrace Marshall or Elijah Moore over one of them (for example), I would feel like I'm reaching because of positional value.  

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2 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

What's the top 10-15 in standard PPR looking like right about now?  I imagine its going to be a lot different than those polls that were going before the draft

1.01 - Chase

1.02 - Harris 

1.03 - Pitts

1.04 - Etienne

1.05 - Williams

1.06 - Smith

1.07 - Waddle

1.08 - Sermon

1.09 - Elijah Moore

1.10 - Lawrence

 

 

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7 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

I said "super early"

What value is there in drafting a rookie in the 1st round of a startup (Unless it is a Barkley or AP type of talent) before the NFL draft??

A perfect landing spot doesnt even increase the value.  Meanwhile, their stock can plummet with the wrong landing spot

 

Sorry I think I read you wrong the first time. I was thinking you meant the idea of doing a startup before the NFL draft was a bad idea. I didn't realize you meant *early within* the startup itself. Yeah I tend to agree I don't like to take an expensive rookie early in a startup before the NFL draft. There are great cheap rookies to be had later in the draft.

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On 4/30/2021 at 9:59 AM, ghostguy123 said:

I see people drafting him in the 1st because he is an electric player taken in the top 20 of the NFL draft.  Not saying I think he SHOULD be a 1st rounder, but I think he consistently will be

Fantastic point.

A lot of dudes going to take Toney 1st round because he went in the 1st round.  Don’t be that guy in your league.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

I cant see Fields over Carter and Marshall.

 

:shrug:

Yeah, I guess I'd put them at 13 & 14.

And I think in terms of Zealots where roster size is big. Smaller leagues, drop Fields behind them.

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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