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ROOKIE DYNASTY 21 - Rnd 1 - Top 3 and a cliff?


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Now they've mostly landed, is this class actually that good? Because I'm not seeing that many 'can't miss' players in Dynasty personally. 

There are obviously some good ones near the top but the drop seems to be abrupt and drastic, and I'm not as enamoured with the peak guys at the top as I normally would be. 

Seems like an underwhelming year, on paper at least, especially considering how it was being talked about as deep beforehand. 

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2 minutes ago, Wigglytuff's Gruff said:

Now they've mostly landed, is this class actually that good? Because I'm not seeing that many 'can't miss' players in Dynasty personally. 

There are obviously some good ones near the top but the drop seems to be abrupt and drastic, and I'm not as enamoured with the peak guys at the top as I normally would be. 

Seems like an underwhelming year, on paper at least, especially considering how it was being talked about as deep beforehand. 

I agree

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Yes, I am agreement as well that it doesn't seem deep at all. I saw someone post that due to less players entering draft this year than normal, that should make next year very deep regardless of the top end talent that many seem to be saying is lacking.

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8 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

There's a top 8 and then everyone else. Which if you were rationally paying attention, I think was pretty apparent.

I must have been, because I've sort of subconsciously kicked all my draft picks to next year and 23. 

But it does seem even less than anticipated. 

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I don't think too many players' stock went up due to landing spot, but a lot of the higher players' stock seems to have gone down.

We've gotten spoiled the past few years where many of the best players went to above average situations.

 

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Just now, ghostguy123 said:

The top 7 have apparently stayed the top 7, just rotated order a bit maybe

Yes I was telling someone this earlier. My top 7 in January is my top 7 today and I can't recall anything like that ever happening before.

I'm talking non-SF and I know you are as well, not sure about how SF rankings held but I'd guess they did as well.

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

Okay: a top three, a next five, and then everyone else.

I got it as a tier of 5 and a tier of two. I don't  see where this 8th player is coming from?

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I have the 1.04 in Prem TE I'm pretty confident Chase, Harris, and Pitts will go 1-2-3.  If not, good for me, but otherwise I'm looking at Etienne or Javonte.   Leaning 2-1 in Etienne's direction.

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

Chase

Harris

Pitts

Williams

Etienne

Waddle

Smith

Lawrence

Oh Lawrence, and no I don't put him remotely in that class in my leagues but keeping in mind even single start QB leagues can really differ how they value them, my leagues not high.

 

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

I'd probably put Etienne before Williams in PPR. In non, the reverse.

I'm in PPR (0.5 for RB) and I favor Etienne over Williams right now and I'd be surpised if I change my mind in the next two days.

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4 minutes ago, Mister CIA said:

I think Etienne vs Williams is the hot question for the next few days.

I agree. I also think we'll see Carter move in the 1st round in the majority of leagues (at least teams that have a need at RB) plus I think some of the WRs folks were excited about that were expected to go later 1st didn't land in the best spots (Bateman especially, and to a lesser extent R. Moore) 

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I actually like Rondale Moore in AZ.  Nuk will still be the alpha, but no reason Moore can't be a VERY productive ppr slot there as long as he is healthy.

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46 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Willing to bet Miami traded back up to 6 thinking 4 QBs would get drafted, leaving chase or pitts.  Oops.

 

I think they always wanted Waddle.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

Im gonna say it again. Couldn't be more thankful to have a top 3 pick. 

As much as I want Pitts, I dont have the guts to trade what it takes to get him.

Guessing chase and harris are the top 2 in every draft, maybe even in TE premium as well.

Actually if I did have a top 3 pick I would likely be shopping.

Cant wait to see some post NFL draft trades

Edited by ghostguy123
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49 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

As much as I want Pitts, I dont have the guts to trade what it takes to get him.

Guessing chase and harris are the top 2 in every draft, maybe even in TE premium as well.

Actually if I did have a top 3 pick I would likely be shopping.

Cant wait to see some post NFL draft trades

Totally agree

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56 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

Im gonna say it again. Couldn't be more thankful to have a top 3 pick. 

Right. Ow I’ve got 1.01 and 1.03 and ecstatic I don’t have anything below 1.03. It’s a crapshoot after that pick

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6 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

There's a top 8 and then everyone else. Which if you were rationally paying attention, I think was pretty apparent.

I don't think so. I am not having an easy time assembling an order, but I think that wr tier of Bateman/Moore's/Marshall is strong - as is qb. The fall off round 2 is hitting earlier than I thought it would a week ago though. 

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Posted (edited)

Probably a good year to deal picks for existing players.  Not only because of uncertainty past the first few picks, but because you will probably get good value.

Even if rebuilding, if you have pick 5 I can see people trading something like pick 10 and future 1st to move up.  

Now if you have a top 3 pick...........those are the deals I cant want to see

Edited by ghostguy123
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4 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

Probably a good year to deal picks for existing players.  Not only because of uncertainty past the first few picks, but because you will probably get good value.

Even if rebuilding, if you have pick 5 I can see people trading something like pick 10 and future 1st to move up.  

Now if you have a top 3 pick...........those are the deals I cant want to see

I acquired the 1.02 in a trade from the previous year where I gave up 1.11 from 2020 for a 2021 1st. Turned into 2 overall. 

I then traded 1.02 for a 2022 1st, 23 1st, 1.09. Someone was thirsty for Harris/Chase it seems. 

Then traded 1.09 for a 22 1st and 2.14. Then traded 2.14 for a 22 2nd.

I then traded my actual pick, 1.13, for a 22 1st.

I have no 21 picks now and I feel good about that. 

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I do  not like having dynasty draft picks. You just never know. I usually try to acquire known talent with them right before the nfl draft when people are really hyped about players. Then I don't have to worry about landing spots. I also really focus on the waiver wire during the season to pick up a couple gems that got passed up in the fantasy draft.

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15 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

There's a top 8 and then everyone else. Which if you were rationally paying attention, I think was pretty apparent.

Once the pro days came in, I would agree. Lots of players came in smaller and less athletic than advertised. 

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Posted (edited)

Quick top of my head run through

1-4:Harris, ETN, Javonte, Chase in some order. Harris got a great landing spot in terms of touches but there are a lot of questions about how effective that offense will be. Reverse that for ETN. I like the pieces on the Jags offense but Robinson obviously makes his touches murky. Javonte is in a really good spot for 2022. It might be a slow start for 2021 though. Chase got a pretty clean landing spot. 

5. Pitts: Still a TE so he's not quite the elite tier but damn close. 

6-7: Smith and Waddle, just a matter of preference on talent, style and opinion on Tua vs Hurts. Both offenses could be low volume out of the gate but both teams also have the capital to get a new QB if the current one fails this year. 

8: Marshall: It's the last year of Robby Anderson's contract so the path to Marshall becoming the 1B opposite Moore is clear. They have a nice complementary game. 

9-11: Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Toney: Elijah is the best player but Jets/Wilson worries me. Wilson seems like the kind of QB who likes to throw down field and give WRs chances to make plays in coverage. That doesn't seem to quite gel with Elijah's game. Toney's draft capital can't be ignored. The Giants have an out on Shepard after this year so this seems to signal to me that he's going to get replaced by Toney in the slot. Rondale landed in a good spot, just a matter of how you feel about a 5'7" WR with injury history.

12-14:Lawrence, Fields, Lance: These are 3 elite dynasty QB options. Pretty good to great situations plus rushing upside. Obviously where they go depends a lot on team need but I think if we somewhat disregard positional scarcity, these players could have the biggest fantasy impact. It's not hard to see any of these players entering the Josh Allen/Lamar Jackson tier of fantasy QBs who actually make a difference. 

15-16: Trey Sermon and Michael Carter: I wouldn't have pegged them as the guys a Shanahan running system would target but obviously the experts felt differently. Good combination of predraft interest and clean landing spot for me. 

17-20: Bateman, Amari Rodgers, Amon Ra St Brown, Dyami Brown: ARSB Seems like a Cooper Kupp for Goff. Target opportunity is tremendous.  Bateman and Rodgers are interesting- one was a great prospect who landed in a weak spot. The other was a weak prospect who landed in a great spot. Though with Rodgers we do have to worry the other Rodgers gets traded or retires. That would tank his value. The question with Dyami is how does Washington plan to use Samuel? If it's deep field stretcher, then Dyami is in trouble. If it's like a slot/gadget guy, then Dyami has a chance to play outside on what has the makings of a fun offense. 

 

Edited by Ilov80s
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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, menobrown said:

I don't have a top 8.

I have a top 8 tier in start 1qb leagues of:   Harris, Chase, Pitts, Waddle, Williams, Smith, ETN, Lawrence

Followed by:  Bateman, Carter, E Moore, and Marshall

Then everybody else

Edited by JohnnyU
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17 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Quick top of my head run through

1-4:Harris, ETN, Javonte, Chase in some order. Harris got a great landing spot in terms of touches but there are a lot of questions about how effective that offense will be. Reverse that for ETN. I like the pieces on the Jags offense but Robinson obviously makes his touches murky. Javonte is in a really good spot for 2022. It might be a slow start for 2021 though. Chase got a pretty clean landing spot. 

5. Pitts: Still a TE so he's not quite the elite tier but damn close. 

6-7: Smith and Waddle, just a matter of preference on talent, style and opinion on Tua vs Hurts. Both offenses could be low volume out of the gate but both teams also have the capital to get a new QB if the current one fails this year. 

8: Marshall: It's the last year of Robby Anderson's contract so the path to Marshall becoming the 1B opposite Moore is clear. They have a nice complementary game. 

9-11: Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Toney: Elijah is the best player but Jets/Wilson worries me. Wilson seems like the kind of QB who likes to throw down field and give WRs chances to make plays in coverage. That doesn't seem to quite gel with Elijah's game. Toney's draft capital can't be ignored. The Giants have an out on Shepard after this year so this seems to signal to me that he's going to get replaced by Toney in the slot. Rondale landed in a good spot, just a matter of how you feel about a 5'7" WR with injury history.

12-14:Lawrence, Fields, Lance: These are 3 elite dynasty QB options. Pretty good to great situations plus rushing upside. Obviously where they go depends a lot on team need but I think if we somewhat disregard positional scarcity, these players could have the biggest fantasy impact. It's not hard to see any of these players entering the Josh Allen/Lamar Jackson tier of fantasy QBs who actually make a difference. 

15-16: Trey Sermon and Michael Carter: I wouldn't have pegged them as the guys a Shanahan running system would target but obviously the experts felt differently. Good combination of predraft interest and clean landing spot for me. 

17-20: Bateman, Amari Rodgers, Amon Ra St Brown, Dyami Brown: ARSM Seems like a Cooper Kupp for Goff. Target opportunity is tremendous.  Bateman and Rodgers are interesting- one was a great prospect who landed in a weak spot. The other was a weak prospect who landed in a great spot. Though with Rodgers we do have to worry the other Rodgers gets traded or retires. That would tank his value. The question with Dyami is how does Washington plan to use Samuel? If it's deep field stretcher, then Dyami is in trouble. If it's like a slot/gadget guy, then Dyami has a chance to play outside on what has the makings of a fun offense. 

 

I don’t think Bateman should free fall to mid - late 2nd IMO

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, BigAl21 said:

I don’t think Bateman should free fall to mid - late 2nd IMO

I don't think so either. QB need is the wildcard for me. If a team doesn't need a QB or doesn't want to go QB, than maybe he can be more early 2nd. This was just my gut reaction as well so I am sure it will change as I give it more consideration.

Edited by Ilov80s
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I'm seeing a theme here that the FF community wants to trade out of 2021 picks and that the price may have dropped. I like a lot of these spots a lot better than a lot of other folks, it would seem. 

I think so much of this is a matter of how expectations color the reaction we have. 2020 was a ridiculous class and probably set the bar way too far. I have been cautioning myself all along that this was likely the case. With that in mind, I'm not having the OMG this draft is terrible reaction. I don't love it. And my goodness have the RBs been indicted here. But I feel like we've mostly all been saying this for most of the offseason.

Anyway there are definitely some spots I am buying into this draft or upwards within it.

I can't help but wonder if there will be some action with (pretty decent) veteran RBs out there in the NFL trade market. 

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34 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I'm seeing a theme here that the FF community wants to trade out of 2021 picks and that the price may have dropped. I like a lot of these spots a lot better than a lot of other folks, it would seem. 

I think so much of this is a matter of how expectations color the reaction we have. 2020 was a ridiculous class and probably set the bar way too far. I have been cautioning myself all along that this was likely the case. With that in mind, I'm not having the OMG this draft is terrible reaction. I don't love it. And my goodness have the RBs been indicted here. But I feel like we've mostly all been saying this for most of the offseason.

Anyway there are definitely some spots I am buying into this draft or upwards within it.

I can't help but wonder if there will be some action with (pretty decent) veteran RBs out there in the NFL trade market. 

Not that long ago I saw this happen- everyone wanted 2020 picks and 2019 was a down class. I happily traded for picks in that draft because the 2020 picks were so sought after. I ended up with aj brown, metcalf, Harry, hockenson, fant, mclaurin. Rebuild is going just fine. Others drafted in that class were Montgomery, miles sanders, jacobs. Don’t get caught up in the “these landing spots stink” rhetoric. Find a way to exploit it.

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54 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

 

I can't help but wonder if there will be some action with (pretty decent) veteran RBs out there in the NFL trade market. 

Denver, Atlanta, and miami come to mind.

Good time to trade gaskin and mike davis

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4 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Denver, Atlanta, and miami come to mind.

Good time to trade gaskin and mike davis

Seems like the good time to trade for them was last week. Now their value is up and the chances are exceptionally high those teams get a RB next year. 

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7 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Denver, Atlanta, and miami come to mind.

Good time to trade gaskin and mike davis

I meant in the NFL, not for our dynasty teams. Will the Falcons trade Julio still, maybe for a RB involved? Will Miami do something? I think it is a great time to sell those two in dynasty. Nobody wants Gordon in dynasty or the NFL. 

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11 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I meant in the NFL, not for our dynasty teams. Will the Falcons trade Julio still, maybe for a RB involved? Will Miami do something? I think it is a great time to sell those two in dynasty. Nobody wants Gordon in dynasty or the NFL. 

Denver is stuck with Gordon and they have Javonte Williams, so I doubt they make a play for a big time RB.

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36 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Denver is stuck with Gordon and they have Javonte Williams, so I doubt they make a play for a big time RB.

I think he meant they could trade gordon. 

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