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ROOKIE DYNASTY 21 - Rnd 1 - Top 3 and a cliff?


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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

I meant in the NFL, not for our dynasty teams. Will the Falcons trade Julio still, maybe for a RB involved? Will Miami do something? I think it is a great time to sell those two in dynasty. Nobody wants Gordon in dynasty or the NFL. 

Correct I said trade them.  

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4 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I have a top 8 tier in start 1qb leagues of:   Harris, Chase, Pitts, Waddle, Williams, Smith, ETN, Lawrence

Followed by:  Bateman, Carter, E Moore, and Marshall

Then everybody else

Thanks and I said something to Andy last night but let me be more blunt that if in my leagues you put Trevor was top 8 you are falling victim to dumb rookie love. I say that because before Watson's legal issues I could not get a late first for him so if people did not want to pay a late first for Watson but view Trevor as a big 8 then they are not playing this game correctly. As I said to Andy all one start QB leagues are not equal. The smaller roster FFPC vs larger roster leagues were QB's are not sitting on the market all over does make a difference so I'm not saying it's wrong to have Trevor in that class in your leagues, but I'm calling it dumb rookie love in mine.

And I certainly don't see that second tier like you got but I'm now at time of the year I must keep that to myself.

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3 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Thanks and I said something to Andy last night but let me be more blunt that if in my leagues you put Trevor was top 8 you are falling victim to dumb rookie love. I say that because before Watson's legal issues I could not get a late first for him so if people did not want to pay a late first for Watson but view Trevor as a big 8 then they are not playing this game correctly. As I said to Andy all one start QB leagues are not equal. The smaller roster FFPC vs larger roster leagues were QB's are not sitting on the market all over does make a difference so I'm not saying it's wrong to have Trevor in that class in your leagues, but I'm calling it dumb rookie love in mine.

And I certainly don't see that second tier like you got but I'm now at time of the year I must keep that to myself.

If you couldn't get a late first for Watson before his legal issues then I think the league you play in doesn't value QBs sufficiently.

But you're making a bigger deal about it than necessary IMO. The other seven are, I think(?), the same. So who cares if Lawrence is tagged on at the end?

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

If you couldn't get a late first for Watson before his legal issues then I think the league you play in doesn't value QBs sufficiently.

But you're making a bigger deal about it than necessary IMO. The other seven are, I think(?), the same. So who cares if Lawrence is tagged on at the end?

I don't understand that comment at all. I thought I was having a converastion and you turned into attack mode. I don't this, thanks, if you got an issue with me do everyone a favor and put me on ignore.

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Just now, menobrown said:

I don't understand that comment at all. I thought I was having a converastion and you turned into attack mode. I don't this, thanks, if you got an issue with me do everyone a favor and put me on ignore.

Sorry you took it that way. That wasn't the intent.

I just meant that if the topic is "what are the break points in rookie drafts" and Lawrence is at the end of the list, then it's either a top seven without Lawrence and a top eight with. 

And I also meant that I have a hard time understanding a league setup where a top three-ish QB isn't worth a late first.

C'mon man. You know me a little.

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13 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

Now if you have a top 3 pick...........those are the deals I cant want to see

Not mine but in my league:

Team A gave: 1.2, 2.4, 5.10

Team B gave: 1.4, 2022#1 (not a playoff team last year) and 3.4.

My opinion an outstanding trade for team moving back and I know who they like and good chance they get them anyway.

I offered 1.1/2.1 last night in a league for 3/4 and got shut down immediately. That team also has pick 2 and 10 so they had 2-4 and 10. I heard Joe Banner on a podcast a few weeks ago discuss something that I made me try to use his real life strategy in fantasy because I do see correlation but did not work in this case. What Banner said was when he was with the Eagles they did a study that teams with a bounty of picks tend to undervalue them, like they are drunk on picks. I think this is true and he was bringing this up in discussion of Miami winning the trade to move back from 3 and then overpaying to move back to 6, which is something I know you agree with.

Anyway the guy who turned me down immediately accepted an offer of a 2022#1 for his 1.10 so he's got less picks.

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3 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Sorry you took it that way. That wasn't the intent.

I just meant that if the topic is "what are the break points in rookie drafts" and Lawrence is at the end of the list, then it's either a top seven without Lawrence and a top eight with. 

And I also meant that I have a hard time understanding a league setup where a top three-ish QB isn't worth a late first.

C'mon man. You know me a little.

Alright let's move and let me try and explain my leagues and try and do so without sounding like a brag to try and illustrate QB value or take this thread.

These are all FFPC leagues with 14 position player off-season cuts and we $1,000 blind bidding dollars. This is my QB's and cost to acquire.

Lg 1: Watson, Herbert, Hurts

Lg 2: Mahomes

Lg 3: Mahomes, Herbert

Lg 4: Mahomes, Hurts

Lg 5- Kyler

Lg 6- Watson, Hurts

Every single QB except Kyler in Lg5 and Mahomes in Lg 2 was acquired in FA. Mahomes for $1 in two leagues and the only one I spent more then $70'ish for was Hurts just because it was late in the year and I had money to blow.

LG5 I used 2.5 on Kyler because that draft class fell off a cliff right around that pick.

Lg 2 is the one that you might say I paid a premium. I took Kyler at 2.4 for same reason as above. But I have CEH, Tyreek and Kelce on this team and wanted to just basically roll out the Chiefs on people and this was a big trade(which I lost big) that involved me giving up Kyler to get Mahomes.

Also I picked up Lamar for $7 but traded him in what is LG6 in a deal two years ago but he was traded away as part of a bigger deal.

Drafted Dak in round 5 of Lg 4 and rostered him last two seasons and no one would so much as give me a second and as Mahomes backup was just a drain. I finally took a weak offer of a current late second and future second and just went with Hurts as backup.

In Lg3 I gave Hurts up for a late 2022 second because I could not find a spot to carry him as my QB3.

So you see what I'm getting at here? I'm sure this is not just me that is seeing how cheap and easy it is to find stud QB's due in large part to roster limits leaving majority of these players exposed to waivers during their rookie seasons. Of course Lawrence won't be in that position as he'll be playing week one but other then Murry and the league I traded for Mahomes every single QB on my teams was a fairly cheap waiver wire pick up.

 

 

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Not sure I get the idea that Denver is stuck with Gordon. He was solid last year and on the last year of his deal. It would be reckless of Denver to expect that a 21 year old rookie who has never had more than a 166 carries in a season come in and get 300+ touches. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Not sure I get the idea that Denver is stuck with Gordon. He was solid last year and on the last year of his deal. It would be reckless of Denver to expect that a 21 year old rookie who has never had more than a 166 carries in a season come in and get 300+ touches. 

I would think Denver is just fine with having Gordon there. Like I said in another thread, he actually looked good at the end of last year, and I don't expect a huge drop-off. I know, because I traded him before last year for a package that included a first this year, which could be really ironic given where I'm selecting. Anyway, look at Gordon's points scored and YPC and total yards his last four or five games. It's pretty good. 

I think they're going to do what most teams would do in this situation. They're going to ride him for the most part unless Williams is just flat out a better back than Gordon. Denver is loaded on offense, except at QB, and they're not going to force Williams in there unless he takes the job outright. 

Denver isn't looking to dump Gordon, if you ask me. I mean, if someone takes his salary they might, but who is going to do that? Too rich for most teams' blood. 

Dynasty guys are stuck with him and don't want him, but the Broncos? Probably not so much. 

Edited by woodstock
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Another example of why FFPC centric nuances matter around these parts. Lawrence at 8 is a mistake in standard FFPC format, IMO. I agree with Meno about that. He also acknowledged in his first comment that set this off that it might be different in deeper format leagues. Not sure why that didn't come across the first time.

 

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9 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Not sure I get the idea that Denver is stuck with Gordon. He was solid last year and on the last year of his deal. It would be reckless of Denver to expect that a 21 year old rookie who has never had more than a 166 carries in a season come in and get 300+ touches. 

I think I have been misunderstood around here on Denver RB situation. I think they're set. I don't think they're making any calls and I don't think anyone is calling them. I don't know how/why they popped up in discussion. If Gordon were marketable then maybe.

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4 minutes ago, woodstock said:

I would think Denver is just fine with having Gordon there. Like I said in another thread, he actually looked good at the end of last year, and I don't expect a huge drop-off. I know, because I traded him before last year for a package that included a first this year, which could be really ironic given where I'm selecting. Anyway, look at Gordon's points scored and YPC and total yards his last four or five games. It's pretty good. 

I think they're going to do what most teams would do in this situation. They're going to ride him for the most part unless Williams is just flat out a better back than Gordon. Denver is loaded on offense, except at QB, and they're not going to force Williams in there unless he takes the job outright. 

Denver isn't looking to dump Gordon, if you ask me. I mean, if someone takes his salary they might, but who is going to do that? Too rich for most teams' blood. 

Dynasty guys are stuck with him and don't want him, but the Broncos? Probably not so much. 

Right, I am sure they are very happy about that 1-2 punch for next season. 

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Yeah, I generally sort of pay attention to the FFPC and always think about rosters and short benches, though you really have to play it to know. Consider that Andy plays a lot of Zealots leagues, which means 53-man rosters and Lawrence should be going around where he's got him pegged. 

They're not understanding the ramifications of either right now, really. It's sort of like empirical knowledge, which is all based on sensory perceptions. Very hard to imagine what others are processing at times. It's very difficult to walk in another person's shoes without similar understanding. 

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3 minutes ago, woodstock said:

I would think Denver is just fine with having Gordon there. Like I said in another thread, he actually looked good at the end of last year, and I don't expect a huge drop-off. I know, because I traded him before last year for a package that included a first this year, which could be really ironic given where I'm selecting. Anyway, look at Gordon's points scored and YPC and total yards his last four or five games. It's pretty good. 

I think they're going to do what most teams would do in this situation. They're going to ride him for the most part unless Williams is just flat out a better back than Gordon. Denver is loaded on offense, except at QB, and they're not going to force Williams in there unless he takes the job outright. 

Denver isn't looking to dump Gordon, if you ask me. I mean, if someone takes his salary they might, but who is going to do that? Too rich for most teams' blood. 

Dynasty guys are stuck with him and don't want him, but the Broncos? Probably not so much. 

I know I will be killed saying this... but I do think if Lock has a real off-season he can be great. He just needs coaching on recognition. He’s like a Cutler without guidance. Great arm, great release. 

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Just now, barackdhouse said:

I think I have been misunderstood around here on Denver RB situation. I think they're set. I don't think they're making any calls and I don't think anyone is calling them. I don't know how/why they popped up in discussion. If Gordon were marketable then maybe.

Yep. I gotcha, I think. 

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Just now, Blackbear said:

I know I will be killed saying this... but I do think if Lock has a real off-season he can be great. He just needs coaching on recognition. He’s like a Cutler without guidance. Great arm, great release. 

He's my second or third QB behind Mahomes. I also have Newton. It's all up for grabs with those two. I hope he's even a smidge like Cutler, because I don't feel like wasting a second rounder on one of the guys that were just drafted. I'm praying you're right. 

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1 minute ago, Blackbear said:

I know I will be killed saying this... but I do think if Lock has a real off-season he can be great. He just needs coaching on recognition. He’s like a Cutler without guidance. Great arm, great release. 

Maybe we are remembering Cutler differently but to me that's a guy I do not want starting on my NFL team. 

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Just now, woodstock said:

He's my second or third QB behind Mahomes. I also have Newton. It's all up for grabs with those two. I hope he's even a smidge like Cutler, because I don't feel like wasting a second rounder on one of the guys that were just drafted. I'm praying you're right. 

No I’m talking Denver not Pats. 

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Just now, Blackbear said:

No I’m talking Denver not Pats. 

No, I know. I was giving you my situation. It was confusing. I hope Lock is like Cutler because he's all I got besides Newton, who are both behind Mahomes. That's what I should have said to make it more clear. 

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4 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

I know I will be killed saying this... but I do think if Lock has a real off-season he can be great. He just needs coaching on recognition. He’s like a Cutler without guidance. Great arm, great release. 

In terms of his talent and potential yes. But surely he has a better head on his shoulders than the all time leading passer for the Chicago Bears? Yeah I agree I think Lock can take a big step this year and surprise some people.

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Just now, Blackbear said:

Guy had a helluva arm. No guidance. 

I remember he carved up either the Jets or the Giants one game in some heavy Meadowlands gale force winds that were just nasty, like the old Meadowlands could be. Cutler was a rookie or a second-year guy and just was dicing the other team, who kept playing the wind effect to no avail. Denver won that game handily because Cutler was able to function whereas the other team couldn't do jack on offense. 

Helluva arm. 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

Why?

I don’t think they are remotely accurate, but I could be wrong.  I don’t think people put much thought into their selections.

Edited by JohnnyU
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5 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Maybe we are remembering Cutler differently but to me that's a guy I do not want starting on my NFL team. 

That cigarette meme with the Donnnnnnn't Carrrrrre will be the all-time football meme for me. Just classic. What a surly, don't-bother-me-with-this-passed-out-loser fraternity brother he looked like. 

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

I don’t think they are remotely accurate, but I could be wrong.

Well it is a microcosm of the greater ff world. If it is wrong then so be it. I bet it gives us insight into where people will pick things. I don’t see it as hurting things. Unless you are afraid of giving away your coveted inside info! 😀

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21 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Not sure I get the idea that Denver is stuck with Gordon. He was solid last year and on the last year of his deal. It would be reckless of Denver to expect that a 21 year old rookie who has never had more than a 166 carries in a season come in and get 300+ touches. 

I’ll target Williams but I don’t see many roads leading to Gordon getting released. 

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1 minute ago, Blackbear said:

Guy had a helluva arm. No guidance. 

NFL graveyards are littered with big arms who didn't know what to do with it. His senior year against SEC teams, he averaged 214 yards, 60% completion %, 1.25 TDs and 0.88 Ints (note that includes Arkansas, Kentucky and Vandy, no LSU or A+M) I am sorry but he's never been a quality NFL prospect. 

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I’ll target Williams but I don’t see many roads leading to Gordon getting released. 

Williams is more of a play for 2022 and beyond. Which is fine IMO.

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2 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

Well it is a microcosm of the greater ff world. If it is wrong then so be it. I bet it gives us insight into where people will pick things. I don’t see it as hurting things. Unless you are afraid of giving away your coveted inside info! 😀

I don’t think people put much thought into their selections.

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Just now, Ilov80s said:

Williams is more of a play for 2022 and beyond. Which is fine IMO.

The Lindsay snap count is there for him. Maybe he takes more. But like you said he’s more a year 2 play with maybe Flex value this season.

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The Lindsay snap count is there for him. Maybe he takes more. But like you said he’s more a year 2 play with maybe Flex value this season.

And there is still the odd chance they get Rodgers. That would supercharge the value for Williams as this offense would be looking at 2-3 years of being in play for the league's best offense. 

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

I don’t think people put much thought into their selections.

Sure they do. And there lots of them. And like the greater FF world it represents, yes there are those few who don't put much thought into it. But the same applies when they are actually OTC. It isn't meant to represent publishable defendable data. It shows trends, especially between league types, and as a function of time when compared to the previous pre-draft polls.

The bigger question (to me) is how it might take weeks to complete a poll from 1.01 to say 2.05 or so, and opinions change during that time. I'd almost rather see an entry form where each participant puts in an anonymous ranking say for their entire top 24 (for example) and then we compile that to represent a comprehensive snapshot in time among participants. Then we could do it again a month later and so forth.

But I'll settle for what we've got. 

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1 minute ago, barackdhouse said:

Sure they do. And there lots of them. And like the greater FF world it represents, yes there are those few who don't put much thought into it. But the same applies when they are actually OTC. It isn't meant to represent publishable defendable data. It shows trends, especially between league types, and as a function of time when compared to the previous pre-draft polls.

The bigger question (to me) is how it might take weeks to complete a poll from 1.01 to say 2.05 or so, and opinions change during that time. I'd almost rather see an entry form where each participant puts in an anonymous ranking say for their entire top 24 (for example) and then we compile that to represent a comprehensive snapshot in time among participants. Then we could do it again a month later and so forth.

But I'll settle for what we've got. 

I don’t pay any attention to them when I draft.  None whatsoever, but I have my list already in my head.

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Posted (edited)

I pay attention to those mock drafts because I want to see where the real drafting fantasy football community is at rather than the publications and the guys that write. Generally, the readers are different than the writers on guys, and it helps to know who, when, where, and why. 

Edited by woodstock
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2 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I don’t pay any attention to them when I draft.  None whatsoever, but I have my list already in my head.

I just like to be aware of trends. I watch ADP like a hawk across a few platforms. That's cool though.

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6 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

. I'd almost rather see an entry form where each participant puts in an anonymous ranking say for their entire top 24 (for example) and then we compile that to represent a comprehensive snapshot in time among participants.

This

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34 minutes ago, woodstock said:

Yeah, I generally sort of pay attention to the FFPC and always think about rosters and short benches, though you really have to play it to know. Consider that Andy plays a lot of Zealots leagues, which means 53-man rosters and Lawrence should be going around where he's got him pegged. 

They're not understanding the ramifications of either right now, really. It's sort of like empirical knowledge, which is all based on sensory perceptions. Very hard to imagine what others are processing at times. It's very difficult to walk in another person's shoes without similar understanding. 

Not true at all, I openly said as much in my first responses that I understood not all one QB leagues are equal.

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20 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

 I'd almost rather see an entry form where each participant puts in an anonymous ranking say for their entire top 24 (for example) and then we compile that to represent a comprehensive snapshot in time among participants.

You'd have to do specific ones for each of - Superflex, TE heavy, ppr/non, FFPC, Zealots...and whatever else. Not that you couldn't.

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