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Messing around with automated rookie tiers


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Parameters: Zealots PPR league, so 1QB, 8 R/W/T, 3 DL, 3 LB, 3 DB, balanced IDP scoring, overall tilt toward offense, roster size 53.

What do you guys think of these tiers?  I automated some things and am curious about how it turned out.  Note that there are some players to be added after day 3:

  • Round 4 TEs join tier 3
  • Round 4-5 RBs join tier 4
  • Round 6 RBs join tier 5

Remember, tiers are more important than ranks in this effort.

Tier 1:

  • Harris
  • Etienne

Tier 2:

  • Chase
  • Smith
  • Waddle
  • Pitts
  • Bateman
  • J.Williams
  • Sermon
  • Marshall
  • Toney
  • Eskridge
  • Atwell

Tier 3:

  • R.Moore
  • E.Moore
  • Lawrence
  • Wilson
  • Lance
  • Fields
  • Freiermuth

Tier 4:

  • Long
  • Tremble
  • McKitty
  • Parsons
  • Collins
  • J.Davis
  • Oweh
  • Tryon
  • Phillips
  • Paye
  • Turner
  • Rousseau
  • Palmer
  • Dyami
  • Rodgers
  • N.Collins
  • Schwartz

Tier 5:

  • Ojulari
  • JOK
  • Bolton
  • Werner
  • Surratt
  • Rice
  • E.Jones
  • Koonce
  • Browning
  • Holland
  • Cisco
  • Deablo
  • Grant
  • Moehrig
  • Jones
  • Trask
  • Odeyingbo
  • Basham
  • Ossai
  • Golston
  • P.Jones
  • Perkins
  • Mond
  • Mills

This was an attempt to combine:

  • Hit rate by round and position
  • Turnover among top scorers at each position
  • Relative value at each position

I haven't really done any IDP refining to mark down edge LBs or FSs yet.

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For me. Chase is tier 1

tier 2 is too big. I see big differences amongst these guys. 

i fade Toney, Eskridge, Atwell. Give me the Moores and Rodgers instead. Even Collins and Palmer I like better

tier 4 to me should be your top D even with D importance not as much. Give me a stud D player over a few O guys and the rush OLB who could have been DEs should be faded. LB more important than DL especially in this draft. Parsons, Davis, JOK, Bolton, Collins and Werner stick out to me as top 6, D players. So I got a few moving up a tier and guys like Oweh, Paye being probably LB in 3-4 going down. Think less talented Clowney for years in IDP with LB designation. 

 

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57 minutes ago, Crippler said:

For me. Chase is tier 1

tier 2 is too big. I see big differences amongst these guys. 

i fade Toney, Eskridge, Atwell. Give me the Moores and Rodgers instead. Even Collins and Palmer I like better

tier 4 to me should be your top D even with D importance not as much. Give me a stud D player over a few O guys and the rush OLB who could have been DEs should be faded. LB more important than DL especially in this draft. Parsons, Davis, JOK, Bolton, Collins and Werner stick out to me as top 6, D players. So I got a few moving up a tier and guys like Oweh, Paye being probably LB in 3-4 going down. Think less talented Clowney for years in IDP with LB designation. 

 

These tiers are just meant to be barriers - I can’t move a player from one tier above a player in another tier in this exercise.  So I might value Chase as way above Atwell, but I can’t put the Moores above Atwell (based on hit rates for WRs by draft round).

 

This isn’t going to be how I draft most likely, but it will change the way I draft, I’m guessing.

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So far, this actually fits with my perception of the value of drafting IDPs... I'm much better at finding IDPs off the waiver wire than I am at finding offensive players, which keeps pushing IDPs further down my rookie draft lists every season.  

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Superflex version:

Tier 1:

  • Lawrence
  • Wilson
  • Lance
  • Fields

Tier 2:

  • Harris
  • Etienne
  • Pitts

Tier 3:

  • J.Williams
  • Sermon
  • Chase
  • Smith
  • Waddle
  • Bateman
  • Marshall
  • Toney
  • Eskridge
  • Atwell
  • Freiermuth

Tier 4:

  • R.Moore
  • E.Moore
  • Long
  • Tremble
  • McKitty
  • Jones
  • Trask
  • Parsons
  • Collins
  • J.Davis
  • Oweh
  • Tryon

Tier 5:

  • JOK
  • Bolton
  • Surratt
  • Browning
  • Werner
  • Ojulari
  • Rice
  • E.Jones
  • Koonce
  • Paye
  • Rousseau
  • Phillips
  • Turner
  • Mond
  • Mills
  • Dyami
  • Rodgers
  • N.Collins
  • Palmer
  • Schwartz

Tier 6:

  • Holland
  • Cisco
  • Deablo
  • Ossai
  • Basham
  • Odeyingbo
  • P.Jones
  • Golston
  • Perkins
  • Moehrig
  • Grant
  • Thanks 1
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just to give a little different view. I also like tiers . Our league has some quirks that change some things.

In my home league. 14 team PPR SF TE Premium, IDP Start 11 O and 11 D. 

  1. Lawrence
  2. Fields, Wilson, Pitts, Lance, Chase
  3. Harris, Jones, Smith, Waddle, Etienne
  4. Williams, E. Moore, R. Moore, Friermuth, Sermon, Marshall, Bateman
  5. Mills, Rodgers, Carter, Palmer, N Collins, Toney
  6. Parsons, J. Davis, JOK, Bolton, Z. Collins
  7. Phillips, Paye, Tryon, Rosseau, Turner, Werner, Long, Tremble, Trask, Mond, D. Brown, ,McPherson, Patterson(Pk have more value than 99% of leagues)
  8. Holland, Moehrig, Grant, Browning, Surrart, Oweh, Odigizuma, D. Fitzpatrick, St. Brown, Powell, Koonce, Ossai, Schwartz, 
  9. Barmore, Basham. E. Jones, Ojulari, Eskridge, Barnes, Cisco, P. Jones
  10. Gainwell, Stevenson, Atwell, Deablo, , Perkins, McGrone, Sterns, J. Smith, Bates
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On 5/2/2021 at 9:48 AM, Crippler said:

just to give a little different view. I also like tiers . Our league has some quirks that change some things.

In my home league. 14 team PPR SF TE Premium, IDP Start 11 O and 11 D. 

  1. Lawrence
  2. Fields, Wilson, Pitts, Lance, Chase
  3. Harris, Jones, Smith, Waddle, Etienne

Good list.

I'm sitting at the 2 and 10 in SF and I genuinely have no idea what I'm going to do. Trevor is almost a lock to go 1. I'd consider trading up but no idea what the cost would be. 

I need a qb now (was starting Watson and tannehill) but also rb and te. My receivers are good enough to get me into the championship (plus D Henry) last year, but with Watson's issues that's going to be tough.  

My mocks give me a choice of the alabama receivers but I don't really want them (I like them enough but they'd ride the bench most weeks). Fields is probably my 2nd ranked qb but I'm not confident at all there. I'd love to see Etienne fall to ten but I doubt it happens. I think I put Harris and Etienne in a tier above the bama guys including Jones. Like 3a. 

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