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How much to give up for Pitts


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10 team Dynasty 0.5 PPR 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/2DL/2LB/2DB    Perennial contender, finished 2nd last year.  RB is a relative weakness (Chubb, Edmonds, David Johnson, Connor, Drake, Harris, J Wilson, Hyde)

Currently have Kelce, trade offer in place to trade him straight up for Mixon.  

I have draft pick slot 9.  I have good intel that Pitts will be drafted at slot 1.05 if not 1.04.  

Owner of 1.02 asking for this year's 1.09, 2.09, 2022 1st and 2nd to move up to 1.02, where I can get Pitts.  

Is moving up for Pitts worth all that draft capital?  The Pro is resetting my TE position with a potentially dominant top 2 TE and increasing RB strength.  Con is losing all the draft capital. I've read 2022 will be a less talented draft class overall than recent years

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Is your league scoring TE premium? If it is, I would pay two late firsts and two late seconds for a potential difference maker.

If you trade Kelce for Mixon and draft Pitts, you get a lot younger quickly.

Personally, I would rather get Mixon and Pitts instead of who you might get with late round draft choices and an aging Kelce.

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Seems like a bit much to move up to 1.02.  I might try and see if he can throw in a 3rd this year or a 2nd next year but it wouldn't be a deal breaker if you are a believer in Pitts.  I am not sure if I would be targeting Pitts at 1.02 and you might be better served making the pick trade and keeping Kelce and then picking up Chase or Harris/ETN/Williams (whichever you prefer). Do you know who 1.01 is taking?

 

Mixon has some serious injury risk and Pitts has bust risk.  I think I make the picks trade and keep Kelce and take your highest guy at 1.02 (which I wouldn't have PItts at #2)

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1 hour ago, Gally said:

Seems like a bit much to move up to 1.02.  I might try and see if he can throw in a 3rd this year or a 2nd next year but it wouldn't be a deal breaker if you are a believer in Pitts.  I am not sure if I would be targeting Pitts at 1.02 and you might be better served making the pick trade and keeping Kelce and then picking up Chase or Harris/ETN/Williams (whichever you prefer). Do you know who 1.01 is taking?

 

Mixon has some serious injury risk and Pitts has bust risk.  I think I make the picks trade and keep Kelce and take your highest guy at 1.02 (which I wouldn't have PItts at #2)

Respectfully, the difference here is I am higher on both Pitts and Mixon. 

Please refer to Dr. Bramel Second Opinion Article, Injury Rounds, Five RBs Injuries To Watch, dated April 21, 2021, this article helped me to form my opinion on Mixon's return.

If your league isn't a TE premium scoring league, I may drop Pitts a little.

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1 hour ago, football fan said:

 

Respectfully, the difference here is I am higher on both Pitts and Mixon. 

Please refer to Dr. Bramel Second Opinion Article, Injury Rounds, Five RBs Injuries To Watch, dated April 21, 2021, this article helped me to form my opinion on Mixon's return.

If your league isn't a TE premium scoring league, I may drop Pitts a little.

I am a big fan of Mixon.  He just doesn't come without risk.  I have him in my dynasty league and I made a move for him last year when he was injured to get him at a discount.  To me  you are overpaying to get Mixon in the Kelce deal.  It doesn't mean I don't think Mixon will do well, I just think with his injury risk you are paying $1.20 for him.  

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Maybe he is over paying for Mixon in a deal involving Kelce (maybe he should change his offer). I am just looking at everything together, and I am very high on Pitts, and currently I don't see much additional future risk for Mixon, other than normal injury risk that any RB would have. Mixon had almost an entire off season to heal and workout, and he did not have surgery on his foot, so hasn't the buy low window on him closed some since last year?

I would like to net out both Pitts and a hopefully healthy Mixon for two later firsts and two later second round picks and a thirty plus year old Kelce. Can Kelce keep up elite production for another five or six years?  Maybe I am wrong, but I like Pitts and Mixon in dynasty (after those deals his team did get a lot younger). Sometimes, you got to pay what the other owner wants.

Maybe our opinions differ some, if we all thought a like, the world would be a boring place

I do not disrespect your assessment of this situation at all.  I am just higher on Pitts, and a little less concerned of Nixon's injury risk than you are. And maybe he is underselling Kelce  some. I still am haunted by memories of the KC offense struggling in the Super Bowl, and I sometimes wonder how long Kelce elite production will last.

Anyways, thanks for the discussion, it did make me think about Kelce more, that is my main goal in these forums, to get better at dynasty fantasy football player evaluations. 

.

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Posted (edited)

Sorry that this is not exactly a response to the OP, as I'm just not good at evaluating TE's in mandatory TE leagues because I am in a 0-1 TE league. I think it would be completely different if I had to have a TE, so I just can't really comment on it.

But, I wonder just how good Pitts is going to be. Betting odds right now are putting him in the mid-700s yards, and 6 TD, for 2021. If these are realistic estimates (and I usually consider betting odds to be good working estimates). Yes, it's just his rookie season. But if, say, hypothetically, I knew for a fact that those would be his numbers this year ... I don't know, but I would have a hard time getting excited about him. But maybe it's just because I'm in a TE-optional league.

EDIT: Granted, I will add, those betting numbers are over/unders, meaning that they represent the expected median outcome. Without having an actual probability curve or other more detailed estimates of ceiling/floor or whatever, that doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it just doesn't make me say "I need that guy on my team!"

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Im going to offer an opinion perspective on TE in fantasy. I have found that having a great fantasy TE is wonderful if you have a top team as they can push you over the top. However i have seen way more teams with kelce and Kittle type TEs not make the playoffs. Reason being is why the top TEs are much better than the mid TEs you only need 1 in most .5ppr leagues meaning in a 12 team league 10 teams all have a TE who scores about the same. Giving up draft capital for a TE is not wise in my opion as they arnt game changers like the top WR and RBs who you need many of. Now i think trading kelce for mixon is a great deal and you can fill in your TE spot easier than getting a top 10rb.

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