GoBirds
Footballguy
Good one.
You do seem like the guy that gets a tree the week before Xmas. We buy them same time every year so the year over year comparison is valid. Sorry.
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The INFLATION Thread, aka “The Putin Price Hike” (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ekbeats
- Start date
You do seem like the guy that gets a tree the week before Xmas. We buy them same time every year so the year over year comparison is valid. Sorry.
The Commish
Footballguy
We used to buy live trees all the time. Our yard was full of long needle white pine trees. I just never understood buying cut trees. They were always more expensive and they were dead.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I am far from an economist, and probably wrong about all of this, but to me the inflation concerns seem massively overblown.
Obviously printing all that money is going to cause some inflation, but the big and obvious question is how much of "inflation" is actually inflation, and how much of it is supply/demand. In almost every field demand has massively increased, while supply has massively decreased.
Again, I am far from an economist capable of answering this question, but to me the big tell is that the people that have both the knowledge to answer it, and the money on the line to really put their money where their mouth is, seem largely unconcerned.
And by that I mean the stock market. Growth stocks notoriously get pummeled during times of inflation, and growth stocks have been on a massive run the last year. Granted they've had a solid pullback the last couple days on Omicron and fed tapering news, but they've risen massively right in the face of all the inflation talks over the last few months/year. These are people with far more insight into inflation than us, willing to put their entire livelihoods on the line by continuing to invest in inflation-averse equities while all these inflation "fears" ramble on. Meanwhile we sit here on the internet and proclaim that we know better, my Christmas tree was more expensive, the end is nigh.
Look at this chart of inflation.
Just kidding, that's not a chart of inflation. That's a chart of global freight shipping costs. it just happens to look almost exactly like the "inflation" chart. Coincidence, or partial causation?
We didn't just start printing money. The bulk of it was more than a year ago. Inflation didn't escalate slowly since we started printing it. It held fairly steady, then all of the sudden shot to the moon in the very same month that shipping costs and supply shortages blew up. Coincidence? Maybe. But seems dubious.
Again, I am no economist. Maybe I'm looking at this all wrong. The people who have the most knowledge and the most to lose seem to be betting on inflation not being a major concern. The shortages seem to line up with price increases almost to the day. Of course cars are more expensive right now. You can drive by dealerships that typically have 200 cars on the lot and you're lucky if you can find 2. Obviously they are going to charge more.
Lumber I think is another great example. Everyone started panicking about inflation when lumber shot up in price. But it was just a shortage. By August of this year lumber was 32% cheaper than it was in 2018 while "inflation" was up 5% over 2018. Supply and demand. Right now everything is in demand, and we have supply of almost nothing.
Probably totally wrong, but this is my read on it.
Obviously printing all that money is going to cause some inflation, but the big and obvious question is how much of "inflation" is actually inflation, and how much of it is supply/demand. In almost every field demand has massively increased, while supply has massively decreased.
Again, I am far from an economist capable of answering this question, but to me the big tell is that the people that have both the knowledge to answer it, and the money on the line to really put their money where their mouth is, seem largely unconcerned.
And by that I mean the stock market. Growth stocks notoriously get pummeled during times of inflation, and growth stocks have been on a massive run the last year. Granted they've had a solid pullback the last couple days on Omicron and fed tapering news, but they've risen massively right in the face of all the inflation talks over the last few months/year. These are people with far more insight into inflation than us, willing to put their entire livelihoods on the line by continuing to invest in inflation-averse equities while all these inflation "fears" ramble on. Meanwhile we sit here on the internet and proclaim that we know better, my Christmas tree was more expensive, the end is nigh.
Look at this chart of inflation.
Just kidding, that's not a chart of inflation. That's a chart of global freight shipping costs. it just happens to look almost exactly like the "inflation" chart. Coincidence, or partial causation?
We didn't just start printing money. The bulk of it was more than a year ago. Inflation didn't escalate slowly since we started printing it. It held fairly steady, then all of the sudden shot to the moon in the very same month that shipping costs and supply shortages blew up. Coincidence? Maybe. But seems dubious.
Again, I am no economist. Maybe I'm looking at this all wrong. The people who have the most knowledge and the most to lose seem to be betting on inflation not being a major concern. The shortages seem to line up with price increases almost to the day. Of course cars are more expensive right now. You can drive by dealerships that typically have 200 cars on the lot and you're lucky if you can find 2. Obviously they are going to charge more.
Lumber I think is another great example. Everyone started panicking about inflation when lumber shot up in price. But it was just a shortage. By August of this year lumber was 32% cheaper than it was in 2018 while "inflation" was up 5% over 2018. Supply and demand. Right now everything is in demand, and we have supply of almost nothing.
Probably totally wrong, but this is my read on it.
James Daulton
Footballguy
Where is the "IT'S ALL BIDEN'S FAULT!!!" always told to us by the rolling, laughing emoji crew?I am far from an economist, and probably wrong about all of this, but to me the inflation concerns seem massively overblown.
Obviously printing all that money is going to cause some inflation, but the big and obvious question is how much of "inflation" is actually inflation, and how much of it is supply/demand. In almost every field demand has massively increased, while supply has massively decreased.
Again, I am far from an economist capable of answering this question, but to me the big tell is that the people that have both the knowledge to answer it, and the money on the line to really put their money where their mouth is, seem largely unconcerned.
And by that I mean the stock market. Growth stocks notoriously get pummeled during times of inflation, and growth stocks have been on a massive run the last year. Granted they've had a solid pullback the last couple days on Omicron and fed tapering news, but they've risen massively right in the face of all the inflation talks over the last few months/year. These are people with far more insight into inflation than us, willing to put their entire livelihoods on the line by continuing to invest in inflation-averse equities while all these inflation "fears" ramble on. Meanwhile we sit here on the internet and proclaim that we know better, my Christmas tree was more expensive, the end is nigh.
Look at this chart of inflation.
Just kidding, that's not a chart of inflation. That's a chart of global freight shipping costs. it just happens to look almost exactly like the "inflation" chart. Coincidence, or partial causation?
We didn't just start printing money. The bulk of it was more than a year ago. Inflation didn't escalate slowly since we started printing it. It held fairly steady, then all of the sudden shot to the moon in the very same month that shipping costs and supply shortages blew up. Coincidence? Maybe. But seems dubious.
Again, I am no economist. Maybe I'm looking at this all wrong. The people who have the most knowledge and the most to lose seem to be betting on inflation not being a major concern. The shortages seem to line up with price increases almost to the day. Of course cars are more expensive right now. You can drive by dealerships that typically have 200 cars on the lot and you're lucky if you can find 2. Obviously they are going to charge more.
Lumber I think is another great example. Everyone started panicking about inflation when lumber shot up in price. But it was just a shortage. By August of this year lumber was 32% cheaper than it was in 2018 while "inflation" was up 5% over 2018. Supply and demand. Right now everything is in demand, and we have supply of almost nothing.
Probably totally wrong, but this is my read on it.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
The skeptic in me thinks, “just in time for PPP loans?” There appears to have been so much fraud. (New York Times link.)
MAC_32
Footballguy
I don't know...didn't a lot of that funding dry up fast? Sole proprietor operations were at a disadvantage relative to organizations with established finance departments. By the time the former would get their ducks in a row our app's were already approved. Like anything I'm sure there were exceptions, but I'm taken aback by 15%. I don't subscribe to the times, so i cant see past the headline. Did they rule out larger organizations being a part of that sample?
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
In the beginning it was difficult to get a PPP loan but in subsequent waves it became much easier. Most of the fraud appears to have come from online lenders. I suspect we’ll never find out the true scope of things but your article made me wonder about this.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
James Daulton
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
Should my fantasy football league raise its fee? Currently it’s $110 per team.
Nugget
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Nugget
Footballguy
Employers are preparing for big pay raises in 2022Thank god my employer doesn't calculate it like you do. Nobody says hey, our employees have a lot of fixed costs, we can give them a lower cost of living raise!
Seriously, I'm super curious to see what happens early next year. Instead of the typical ~2.5% I'm am expecting at least 6%, plus. Social Security increased 5.9% in October and it hasn't gotten any better. That's the highest in 40 years. You knew that right, that's why you picked 6%?
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
tonydead said:Thanks. We will have to remember to revisit this in April to see what happens.
I'm not getting a large pay raise. 1.25% raise and a 1.25% bonus in December plus an additional bonus in June (the June bonus is new for our company). Expecting the June bonus to be 1.25% but maybe they'll surprise me. Luckily, my wife is up for a big promotion at work and could see a ~30% bump in pay.
I have my finances in order, but another 6 months of inflation could put my discretional spending budget back a couple years. Hoping this administration can get this figured out.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Shutout
Footballguy
Pretty interesting article all the way around. Barley 6 months ago, these same employers were predicting a percentage point less in wages to employees but with inflation an additional factor to consider, it rises (still won't cover the impact of inflation as it sits currently, but...).tonydead said:Thanks. We will have to remember to revisit this in April to see what happens.
But to me, the interesting component is what this creates. The article refers to it as "compression", where new hires get large starting salaries and suddenly the veterans at said company realize there isn't much of a gap, feel slighted, seek greener pastures, and create large veteran turnover in the workforce (and with labor shortages, it will be exacerbated). This is a real thing, for sure. I've seen many, many times in the work environment where this scenario leads to bad blood, bad attitudes, workers leaving, etc.
So, to me, this looks like, on the surface, a scenario where people get a lot of false hope and the current administration will be able to make it sound like a good thing but at the end of the day the average working family is still under water and companies are less stable a year from now, workforce-wise, than currently.
FairWarning
Footballguy
This definitely applies to 50 and up. Companies only want to hire them part time and no benefits at low wages.
US consumer inflation up 6.8% in past year, most since 1982:
https://apnews.com/article/latest-inflation-numbers-consumer-prices-616055db3bf67691b4fdc0015fc00783
https://apnews.com/article/latest-inflation-numbers-consumer-prices-616055db3bf67691b4fdc0015fc00783
Gopher State
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Let me guess:
1. Pass Build Back Better
2. Add 3T to the debt, as scored by the CBO
3. ????
4. Reduce inflation!
5. Profit!
DocHolliday
Footballguy
DocHolliday
Footballguy
On a positive note, this was lower than many analysts expected and stocks rose yesterday.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
And new unemployment claims were at a 50-year low.
I admit I'm biased not to worry about a short bout of moderate inflation very much because it's probably still what the doctor ordered in terms of fully getting the impacts of the Financial Crisis (increasing interest rates off 0%; winding down asset purchases by the Fed) behind us. An actual overheating in the real (i.e. not financial) economy might be the only way that could happen without crashing everything again.
And as long as real wages keep up with inflation it's just not a big deal unless it starts getting baked into expectations. (Not a big deal at the national level, I'm sure there are people winning and losing, just like there would be with every other change in the economy.) IMO it seems like that's happening, but it's not completely clear yet.
Having said -- it seems clear to me that there's a global bubble in currency led by all the crypto junk and a flood of monetary stimulus in the world's reserve currency. I think that adds up to a problem in the long run. What happens when "bad money drives out good"? It might not be for 10 or 20 years, but I'm trying to work out what to do about that more than I'm worried about a period of moderate inflation. YMMV
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Sand
Footballguy
....and this is exactly what they've come out and said about this massive print on inflation rate.
You can't make this stuff up. 
Shula-holic
Footballguy
The ??? must include turning business and economic principles upside down to get both numbers 1, 2, and 4 in the same list of results.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Stocks, hard assets like real estate, all will be somewhat hedged against inflation. Inflation is really going to eat up the people living paycheck to paycheck and those with a little cash set aside for emergency funds and savings.
Sand
Footballguy
Great article about assets during inflationary periods. Basically, RE is the king here, at least historically. Also, commodities suck. As they seem to also suck during most other periods.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
You added some zeros there.Sand said:
It's 367B (billion) thru 2031.
The $3T number is an number generated by Republicans thru imaginary changes to the law.
(but you knew this already I think?)
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I've thought for a long time that people are confused on metals and inflation -- they aren't an inflation hedge, they're a chaos/currency hedge. And the two things sometimes go together. I think of it like an insurance policy.Sand said:
massraider
Footballguy
Buying property now is a great idea. If you think massive inflation is coming, and worthless dollars, then getting a mortgage for 500 grand is a great ideaSand said:
Sand
Footballguy
The assumption is that the benefits part never sunsets. Like I wrote above if passed and if there is a sunset the blue team will scream that the red team is killing babies by "taking away these essential benefits from the American people."
The game plan here couldn't be any more obvious.
The assumption is a good one.
Sand
Footballguy
Right now in real terms mortgages are at a negative interest rate. I can't remember a better time to hold a mortgage at these rates.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Real wages are going down.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.htm
"Real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees decreased 0.4 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted. This result stems from a 0.5-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.9 percent in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.4 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in average weekly hours.
From November 2020 to November 2021, real average hourly earnings decreased 1.6 percent, seasonally adjusted. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent decrease in the average workweek resulted in a 1.9-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period."
My guess is December is going to see real wages going down further. While inflation continues to rise.
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-12/57673-BBBA-GrahamSmith-Letter.pdf
It's not an imaginary change, it's just funding the BBB without sunsets which has an extremely strong probability to occur unless you think child tax credits will end in 2022 and child care/preschool will end in 2025. Those two provision are 2.3T or the 3T.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
I could safely wager my children's lives on the fact they never sunset. When have we ever taken away entitlements? It's a fantasy to think otherwise.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Thanks for this -- I'm not sure what I saw last month (maybe a monthly report?), but it showed wages holding steady vs inflation.
Sand
Footballguy
And the govt. has decided to change the way inflation is calculated. Anyone want to bet which way this new calculation will move the stated inflation number?
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Yeah, the House Dems tried to game the CBO because the CBO is only allowed to examine the Bill as written. They still couldn't meet the "fully funded" standard they set. Lindsay Graham told the CBO to re-run the numbers without the sunsets.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
This isn't what I saw last month, but it's the same idea... wages are holding steady vs inflation for low-wage workers. The bottom quartile are ahead and the 2nd quartile are flat-ish.
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Republicans are almost certainly going to control the House next year. Are you saying the law doesn't really sunset (I'm not sure myself now that I type that), or that Republicans will vote to extend it?
Also, the CBO also didn't count the impact of increased tax collection enforcement. You don't have to agree it will be ~37B a year, but it's not zero either.
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Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Once you give a portion of the population something, you can't take it away without consequences. If it was such a good idea, why didn't the Democrats just fully fund it to 2031? Oh that's right, they're trying to game the CBO.
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