FairWarning
Footballguy
Totally agree, 8-10 years from now could be really scary when we feel the full effects of the pandemic monetary policies. This is why you judge presidents at that time and not now.
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The INFLATION Thread, aka “The Putin Price Hike” (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ekbeats
- Start date
The Commish
Footballguy
I've kind of adopted the 4 year rule generally accepted by economists which is, it typically takes four years to see the full impact of monetary policy. Obviously, not all policy is created equal and some can have a much faster impact. I expect that to happen once the supplemental unemployment benefits dry up and we take those billions of dollars out of the economy. That will most likely be felt immediately. It's going to get worse before it gets better.
FairWarning
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
Honestly? Hadn't given much thought to foreign policy. I was speaking of fiscal/economic/monetary....whatever one wants to call it.
FairWarning
Footballguy
That’s how I judge a president. For this thread, I shouldn’t have added the foreign policy part as it’s irrelevant.
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E Street Brat
Footballguy
Here's the rub, You increase interest to fight inflation. How do you do that when the national debt what 28T? How do you make that payment,pecorino said:
The Great Re-Set has already started,
Sand
Footballguy
How did this one age? Where are all the inflation-deniers at? Under their bed? Mining for gold? I hear Parker Schnabel is hiring.
MTskibum
Footballguy
The price of lumber is going back down, it will take time but used cars will go back down as well.
Gas prices have stabilized at the supply/demand price. Of course has was cheap in 2020, there was no demand.
Most economists, but not all, think we will have slightly higher than normal inflation over the next 2 years, but nothing crazy. I keep seeing 3.5% thrown around.
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The Commish
Footballguy
I can't speak for "inflation deniers" whatever those are. Those of us who said that if we should see inflation, it would be temporary, we seem to be right on track
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/26/inflation-looks-bad-now-but-its-pretty-much-sticking-to-the-script.html
I still object to what we are seeing being "inflation" in the traditional sense primarily because the prices increases we see right now can be tied directly back to supply chain issues that are still taking time to get back up to speed. Every single one of these industries has the same issues (though for different reasons). Where I was completely wrong was in the assumption that the PSF would be incorrectly applying the "inflation" moniker to any/all price increases. That hasn't happened. Rather, those folks have gone completely silent. Happy to be wrong about that
The other thing that I failed to do in the comments you quoted was put the obvious qualifier of "meaningful" in there...I usually do to quell the
on absolutes a lot of you like to banter around, but I failed to do so in that set of comments. That was my mistake.Thunderlips
Footballguy
Inflation (in this instance) is a cheap heat word to rile the jabronis in the back row.
i.e. "JOE BIDEN DOESN'T WANT YOU HAVE YOUR 3 MPG TRUCK!...HE CREATED INFLATION TO RAISE THE PRICE OF GAS FROM A YEAR AGO..SO YOU'LL HAVE TO GO BUY A 2 CYLINDER SOY PROPELLED CAR!!!!"
i.e. "JOE BIDEN DOESN'T WANT YOU HAVE YOUR 3 MPG TRUCK!...HE CREATED INFLATION TO RAISE THE PRICE OF GAS FROM A YEAR AGO..SO YOU'LL HAVE TO GO BUY A 2 CYLINDER SOY PROPELLED CAR!!!!"
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Mile High
Footballguy
Gas companies gouging the American people whenever they can is the least surprising news so far.
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Thunderlips
Footballguy
I don't know if it's them though. They, by and large, are honorable businesses trying to survive in a hostile to business Biden world. The idea that last year, noone was driving and gas prices went down...while this year EVERYONE is driving....and gas prices are higher.....that seems like it's more of a secret conspiracy by the Biden Administration instead of "economics".
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
I'll go on record to say that some inflationary pressures will be around for a while. Food, power, and items heavy in commodities (tin, aluminum, steel, copper, etc.) will be higher than normal. Lumber, as well, when looked at with a longer eye (it has come down recently, but not to historical levels).I still object to what we are seeing being "inflation" in the traditional sense primarily because the prices increases we see right now can be tied directly back to supply chain issues that are still taking time to get back up to speed. Every single one of these industries has the same issues (though for different reasons). Where I was completely wrong was in the assumption that the PSF would be incorrectly applying the "inflation" moniker to any/all price increases. That hasn't happened. Rather, those folks have gone completely silent. Happy to be wrong about that
I worry that all the money dumped into the system will cause enough inflationary pressure to eat away at the increases in wages we're seeing. Food, in particular, is worrying.
I didn't mention gas/oil, though it's likely those stay elevated. Those are high due to a policy effort to throttle oil supply in the US as much as possible, ceding control and pricing power to OPEC.
So what’s the appropriate word to describe a 5% increase in the consumer price index - the highest in 13 years? Asking for the jabronis in the back who are driving around looking for a Kinkos.
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Food has been rising steadily for decades and working people have been complaining about this for the same amount of time because wages aren't keeping up with the cost.
The Commish
Footballguy
Remember that we will be taking billions out of the system come Sept when all the gov't unemployment assistance runs out. I think the last number I saw was around the $20 billion mark. I haven't protested too much about states ending it early as I see this elephant coming and it's probably a good idea to remove it incrementally rather than all at once. It sucks at a local level for those struggling, but for macro reasons, it's probably going to help a little bit.
Sand
Footballguy
FairWarning
Footballguy
All of my stuff is going up 30-40 cents in two weeks. We should have done it two months ago.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
why just worry about the 4-5 trillion in covid adds to the national debt? doesn't anyone care about the other 25 trillion ?
oh and electric cars ... imagine if Joe got his way and we started using 20-30% more electricity nationwide. It's crush the power grids, blackouts would roll across the USA, it would impacts everything .... but hey, Govt forcing electric without a solid plan is good, right ?
oh and electric cars ... imagine if Joe got his way and we started using 20-30% more electricity nationwide. It's crush the power grids, blackouts would roll across the USA, it would impacts everything .... but hey, Govt forcing electric without a solid plan is good, right ?
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
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Shula-holic
Footballguy
We will see on transitory. That’s an assumption. I hope it’s true but that’s a pretty big assumption.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I think when you look at things like lumber, that's now back to flat for the year after a massive surge, and specifically where a lot of the inflation is happening and why, transitory is a pretty logical idea. But, yeah -- we won't really know until later.
If there is anything that can garner bipartisan support for impeachment, it is increasing the price of bacon. At the very least, there should be an inquiry. Number 1 priority for Congress.
Sand
Footballguy
quick-hands
Footballguy
I think you view of the jabroni's is very 90s. Those people in those seats are all smart marks. And see through the kayfabe.
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GordonGekko
Footballguy
Part of the strategy of putting Pete Buttigieg in charge of DOT was to put him in the firing line when fuel costs would sky rocket. It was an intentional design to take him out of legitimate contender status for 2024. To be fair, it's not like he was a sweeping favorite, but compared to the Biden/Harris level circus, he looks like a little bit of paradise in comparison.
For the leftists here, IMHO, they should be furious about the egregious tanking of Buttigieg. I'm not a huge fan of his, but I'll say fairly he appears to have some mindset towards rational governance compared to the non stop money printing and identity politics carpet bombing going on right now.
Whatever anyone thinks of Bernie Sanders, the DNC ticket was stolen from him in 2016. Then everyone saw Tulsi Gabbard get ambushed and sideswiped for daring to rock the establishment. The rules were literally changed overnight so she could never debate again. And now Buttigieg is getting his pin pulled because he has a lot of marketable upticks on his overall jacket and resume and God forbid that the DNC HQ and the DNC Super Delegates would allow a rational sounding person to actually get the nomination.
Fuel prices are one thing, and it's bad, it's definitely bad, but the pathway to tanking Buttigieg should set some of you leftists off right good and yet.... it doesn't.
Take the GOP out of it, and I'll be fair, Republicans have lots of problems on their own and aren't free of massive criticism. But this is clearly a "Your own house is dirty, stop pointing a finger in the entire neighborhood" situation.
The Obama/Biden/Harris faction turned Buttigieg into a political pin cushion. And yet most of the screaming is still about Orange Man Bad.
What a sad pathetic repugnant way to watch actual freedom die.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Alienate and bury an openly gay candidate who could be the poster child of one of the more loyal, vocal and mobilized factions of the Left?
The Rights fascination with Tulsi Gabbard being a savior for the Democratic Party is always interesting.
Sand
Footballguy
Hillary's declaration of Tulsi as a Russian asset was one of the most deplorable political actions I've seen in a long time. Completely without basis and specifically designed to marginalize her at a critical point in the race. Tulsi was railroaded by the establishment.
Reason #402 that Hillary is confirmed to be a completely amoral, power hungry insider. Despicable human being.
Sand
Footballguy
I disagree with her on about half of what she believes, but she is a clear thinker and that is to be respected.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
She seems to be an interesting person and harder to label than most politicians. That being said, she's the "Dennis Kasich(Trump years)" for the Right; the person in a Party that the opposing Party is saying "this person is great....I like them" but who we all know wouldn't get a vote from a supporter of the first Party......AND she'd lose that "darling of the Right" status as soon as she was accepted by the Left.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Yep. She's just a victim of the establishment. Nothing to see here. She's pure as the driven snow.Sand said:
https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/649615636088365058?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^649615636088365058&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vox.com%2Fpolicy-and-politics%2F2019%2F10%2F22%2F20924999%2Fhillary-clinton-tulsi-gabbard-fight-explained
http://www.hawaiifreepress.com/Articles-Main/ID/20879/Tulsi-Gabbard-Hires-Russian-Agent-to-Keep-Hawaii-Media-in-Check
https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/26/tulsi-gabbard-bashar-al-assad-syria-democrats
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/23/tulsi-gabbard-hillary-clinton-dispute-054398
Sand
Footballguy
That's quite the hit piece there. It's hysterical to think one consultant can censor the free press in Hawaii.
You can smell the visceral hatred for her in that piece.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
The Politico piece was fair - i don't know why she went to Syria, but it's a good question. That one? Hit piece.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Posting just to say.... you guys ALMOST got me sucked into the politics forum. ALMOST. 
shadrap
Footballguy
Well maybe if we stay on inflation for a minute. Found this very informative on inflation:Posting just to say.... you guys ALMOST got me sucked into the politics forum. ALMOST.
Freidman: Inflation Is a Monetary Phenom
JULY 21, 2021 BY DEBBIE YOUNG
FOMC Chairman Powell answers a reporter’s question at the October 30, 2019 press conference.
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” (Milton Friedman)
M2 Not Important?
Growth in the money supply, specifically M2, “doesn’t really have important implications.” (Fed Chairman Jerome Powell 23 Feb testimony to Congress)
June’s inflation index jumped 5.4% from a year ago, the highest reading since August 2008, which surprised the experts, writes the WSJ.
The Fed in Its Ivory Tower
But Chairman Powell, who is neither a banker nor an economist, and his cohorts should start paying attention to the money supply. Money not only matters, it dominates.
Americans are repeatedly told that the most recent upticks in inflation are anomalous and “transitory.”
“Wrong,” argues the WSJ.
The inflation upticks aren’t temporary and were predictable, driven by an extraordinary explosion in the money supply. Since March 2020, the M2 has been growing at an average annualized rate of 23.9%—the fastest since World War II.
There is so much money out there that banks don’t know what to do with it. Via reverse repurchase agreements, banks and money-market funds are lending money to the Fed to the tune of $860 billion. That’s unprecedented.
Milton Friedman’s Model
… consider a monetarist compact model for determining national income. That famous model was displayed on Milton Friedman’s California license plates. It’s compact:
MV=PY, where M is the money supply,
V is the velocity of money (the speed at which it circulates)
P is the price level
Y is real gross domestic product
Inflation Baked Into the Cake
Plug numbers into the model and solve for M, and money supply (M2) should be growing at around 6% a year for the Fed to hit its inflation target of 2%. With M2 growing at nearly four times the “ideal” rate since March 2020, inflation is baked into the cake, and it’s likely to persist.
By the end of the year, the year-over-year inflation rate will be at least 6% and possibly as high as 9%.
Some who like to throw cold water on monetarism argue that the velocity of money has collapsed and will mitigate the inflationary impact of the rapid growth of the money supply.
Velocity did collapse with the onset of COVID. Velocity, however, is on track to pick up until the end of 2024. Consequently, velocity will grease the monetary wheels. That’s why inflation might hit the high end of our forecast range.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Too late GB. It's like a black hole. Nothing, not even light escapes, unless the god of FBG moderation has mercy on your soul.Posting just to say.... you guys ALMOST got me sucked into the politics forum. ALMOST.
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djmich
Footballguy
Biden: Our multi trillion dollar spending bills “will reduce inflation, reduce inflation, reduce inflation"
What the heck is that part at the end where he said lumber workers didn't want to cut anymore and he started stammering...it was because their unemployment was "so down"? Sorry, I don't speak fluent Biden.
What the heck is that part at the end where he said lumber workers didn't want to cut anymore and he started stammering...it was because their unemployment was "so down"? Sorry, I don't speak fluent Biden.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Buttigieg is as much to blame for gas prices as Kamala is for the problems at the border. We're a nation full of lemmings that have been trained to believe otherwise though. We have no desire to change, so we should expect our representatives behavior to sustain. The only way any of it changes is if the collective we stop being simple minded dullards.GordonGekko said:
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