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Who’s really running the country?


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4 minutes ago, stlrams said:

My 401k is flat since January.  The market has been relatively sideways so far imo. 

So not down?  It hasn’t crashed and we all aren’t broke?   Wow.  Based on the comments here about him I was sure we had.  

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6 minutes ago, stlrams said:

My 401k is flat since January.  The market has been relatively sideways so far imo. 

Both of mine have made big jumps, for what it’s worth.

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22 minutes ago, Kal El said:

Both of mine have made big jumps, for what it’s worth.

Maybe I should let you manage my investments.  

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23 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

So not down?  It hasn’t crashed and we all aren’t broke?   Wow.  Based on the comments here about him I was sure we had.  

Some people may be inpatient or have bigger expectations given the huge gains we had over the past few years.  For example, my portfolio was up 36% last year so flat is lousy in comparison.  

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9 minutes ago, stlrams said:

Some people may be inpatient or have bigger expectations given the huge gains we had over the past few years.  For example, my portfolio was up 36% last year so flat is lousy in comparison.  

Yeh - but it was up in anticipation of Biden winning.  So, you should still be thankful ...

 

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35 minutes ago, stlrams said:

Some people may be inpatient or have bigger expectations given the huge gains we had over the past few years.  For example, my portfolio was up 36% last year so flat is lousy in comparison.  

You’re missing the point.  

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1 hour ago, dkp993 said:

So not down?  It hasn’t crashed and we all aren’t broke?   Wow.  Based on the comments here about him I was sure we had.  

I thought the market would go down.  So far I'm wrong & glad to be.

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2 minutes ago, shadrap said:

I thought the market would go down.  So far I'm wrong & glad to be.

Right.  And that’s really my point, the POTUS gets far to much credit/blame (just like with Gas pricing) then warrants by those that support/don’t support them.  

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1 hour ago, dkp993 said:

So not down?  It hasn’t crashed and we all aren’t broke?   Wow.  Based on the comments here about him I was sure we had.  

I started investing in an HSA and a roth for my wife and I post-inauguration and we're up significantly in both.  And that's with straight index fund investing.  Market gonna market

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1 hour ago, Sinn Fein said:

Yeh - but it was up in anticipation of Biden winning.  So, you should still be thankful ...

 

I was just using myself as an example. Why was the market up based off a Biden win? 

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32 minutes ago, dkp993 said:

Right.  And that’s really my point, the POTUS gets far to much credit/blame (just like with Gas pricing) then warrants by those that support/don’t support them.  

I agree for the most part but as pointed out upthread his eo on keystone and bans on new permits does effect the futures market therefore he does bear some responsibility.  

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2 minutes ago, stlrams said:

Why was the market up based off a Biden win? 

Stability and government spending.

 

And, it was up in anticipation of the win.

 

But, ironically - the Stock market is up higher under Biden to this point, than it was under Trump to this point 14.7% to 5.8%

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6 minutes ago, stlrams said:

I agree for the most part but as pointed out upthread his eo on keystone and bans on new permits does effect the futures market therefore he does bear some responsibility.  

Maybe, also as pointed out despite those EO’s we don’t have a supply issue.  It’s a complicated web that drives the price, including post pandemic life returning and normal spring/summer price pops.  Absent starting a war or instituting a massive policy change I think the POTUS’s impact is far overstated. And the point of my original post is that the right heavily weighed Trump’s Stock Market and 401k performance yet we hear crickets on that now.  And again I’m not a Biden supporter, just pointing out the irony.  

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1 hour ago, stlrams said:

Maybe I should let you manage my investments.  

I took the suggestions from my father in law, who practically studies those types of things, and I took a bath on them during the collapse.

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3 hours ago, Kal El said:

So it stands to reason that with things starting to reopen, gas prices will rise due to increased demand? Who knew that Economics 101 had such groundbreaking information?

True, as will curtailing supply drive it in that direction.

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4 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Looking at some data - it appears that Refinery utilization rates were running in the low to mid-90% until last year, when demand for oil products dropped off dramatically with pandemic-related issues.

 

 

As oil prices increase, more sites become economically viable as well.  At that point demand would be there for additional refinery capacity to be built out.  Due to the capital expenditures to establish that, they won't do it unless pricing dictates it.  

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1 minute ago, Shula-holic said:

True, as will curtailing supply drive it in that direction.

That hasn’t happened, according to posts up thread, at least from our side of things. There was the hack of the pipeline, which for some reason, people want to blame Biden, who doesn’t control private pipelines as far as I know.

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2 minutes ago, Kal El said:

That hasn’t happened, according to posts up thread, at least from our side of things. There was the hack of the pipeline, which for some reason, people want to blame Biden, who doesn’t control private pipelines as far as I know.

Which prices surged...to levels we saw in 2018 and 2019 around the same months.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Kal El said:

That hasn’t happened, according to posts up thread, at least from our side of things. There was the hack of the pipeline, which for some reason, people want to blame Biden, who doesn’t control private pipelines as far as I know.

What did happen is Biden froze drilling lease auctions for federal lands.  Now it is true that this would be future capacity and in many cases, higher cost capacity.  I'm trying to present the other side here for fairness.  But as prices increase, these sites become more economically viable.  There is no debate there are reserves on these lands.  If prices keep rising, these would be profitable sites.  At that point we would be choosing to buy from countries like Russia and Venezuela, as well as OPEC states rather than produce it ourselves.  I personally don't see the reason not to look into the leases, collect what revenues we can federally from that and be prepared in the eventuality that this continues.  This is separate from the Russia hack of Colonial.  Well, except that Russia directly stands to benefit anytime prices do increase.  Whether that's causal in this case or just a convenient benefit, you can choose.

Edited by Shula-holic
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3 hours ago, stlrams said:

My 401k is flat since January.  The market has been relatively sideways so far imo. 

Sounds like you need to fire your money manager. My 401K:

Rate of Return

+10.73%

As of 05/14/21

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1 hour ago, stlrams said:

I was just using myself as an example. Why was the market up based off a Biden win? 

Stability in the White House.

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59 minutes ago, Shula-holic said:

I don't really know.  She's not my rep, is she yours?

Mine's almost as bad. Along with Paul Gosar who is in another district in AZ, Andy Biggs is just awful. Both are huge Trump supporters and MAGA hardcore big lie peddlers.

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59 minutes ago, Shula-holic said:

True, as will curtailing supply drive it in that direction.

Right, which usually happens due to OPEC price fixing thru production controls. Not something the US has much leverage with. Bottom line is we are far past due in investing in an energy revolution that will make us truly independent and at the same time lessen the harmful effects of fossil fuels on our environment and climate.

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52 minutes ago, Shula-holic said:

What did happen is Biden froze drilling lease auctions for federal lands.  Now it is true that this would be future capacity and in many cases, higher cost capacity.  I'm trying to present the other side here for fairness.  But as prices increase, these sites become more economically viable.  There is no debate there are reserves on these lands.  If prices keep rising, these would be profitable sites.  At that point we would be choosing to buy from countries like Russia and Venezuela, as well as OPEC states rather than produce it ourselves.  I personally don't see the reason not to look into the leases, collect what revenues we can federally from that and be prepared in the eventuality that this continues.  This is separate from the Russia hack of Colonial.  Well, except that Russia directly stands to benefit anytime prices do increase.  Whether that's causal in this case or just a convenient benefit, you can choose.

We import nearly 50% of our oil imports from Canada. OPEC as a group are about 18% and Russia about 6%. 

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Just now, cap'n grunge said:

Right, which usually happens due to OPEC price fixing thru production controls. Not something the US has much leverage with. Bottom line is we are far past due in investing in an energy revolution that will make us truly independent and at the same time lessen the harmful effects of fossil fuels on our environment and climate.

Well, obviously on a macro level OPEC impacts the price.  But if you produce more than you consume, that's a net positive for your economy in such a scenario.  The rest is a great thought, but we aren't there today.  The reality is, we still rely on fossil fuels.

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Just now, Sinn Fein said:

We import nearly 50% of our oil imports from Canada. OPEC as a group are about 18% and Russia about 6%. 

Because they are geographically closer, yes.  But it's not like supply and demand for oil and their impact on prices are isolated to countries, continents, or even hemispheres.

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1 hour ago, Sinn Fein said:

Stability and government spending.

 

And, it was up in anticipation of the win.

 

But, ironically - the Stock market is up higher under Biden to this point, than it was under Trump to this point 14.7% to 5.8%

So much winning!

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21 minutes ago, Shula-holic said:

Because they are geographically closer, yes.  But it's not like supply and demand for oil and their impact on prices are isolated to countries, continents, or even hemispheres.

Right but we aren’t going to try run to OPEC or Russia if demand increases. And there is no indication that refinery capacity will increase - in fact refineries have been shuttered in the last few years  - despite the demand outside the US for refined oil products. 
 

So this whole notion of gas prices increasing because Biden did not grant future oil leases is not rooted in reality 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Right but we aren’t going to try run to OPEC or Russia if demand increases. And there is no indication that refinery capacity will increase - in fact refineries have been shuttered in the last few years  - despite the demand outside the US for refined oil products. 
 

So this whole notion of gas prices increasing because Biden did not grant future oil leases is not rooted in reality 

I'm not sure I understand your economic thought here.  If demand increases today, where are we to turn for our additional supply?  It's not like we can buy from Canada in a vacuum and just exclude Russia and OPEC.  If we buy from Canada, they sell to us versus someone else, Russia or OPEC or whoever fills the void they left at the higher prices.  So yes, they would benefit from us not being able to meet our growing demand needs.  Or put more simply, as demand grows the pie for sales of oil and we choose not to participate in that market, others reap those benefits.  It's by default the countries producing the reserves worldwide.

As far as refineries, if there is shuttered capacity then it would open up in the event of rising prices.  They would build new capacity as it is profitable to do so as well barring some regulatory issue.  I'm not as well versed on that part.  But I do know that these companies constantly run economic models at what price they can deploy new capital for projects to gain a good return on there investment.  Is there some reason economically they wouldn't?

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28 minutes ago, Shula-holic said:

Is there some reason economically they wouldn't?

I think the long-term demand won't be there to justify expansion - and its why I think some of the refineries were shuttered (rather than updated) - unlikely to be financially feasible.  

 

My point is this - the supply of oil is out there - whether we import it, or produce it internally.  The lack of future drilling leases on Federal lands won't impact the price of crude, nor the price of gas.

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15 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

 

I think the long-term demand won't be there to justify expansion - and its why I think some of the refineries were shuttered (rather than updated) - unlikely to be financially feasible.  

 

My point is this - the supply of oil is out there - whether we import it, or produce it internally.  The lack of future drilling leases on Federal lands won't impact the price of crude, nor the price of gas.

We just disagree on the economic principle then.  If we don't produce internally then we are by default reducing the potential supply on the open market.  If supply is X and the USA could add 2% by increasing it's internal production, then worldwide supply would be 1.02X.  Demand is going to be what it is and would be a constant.  Therefore, we are increasing prices by our choosing to limit our production.  If it's not economically feasible, then that's a separate thing. 

Now, if we are maximizing our profitable output given the current price, your statement is true.  In this scenario, we are simply declining lease revenues for idle sites from our federal coffers while running a huge deficit.  That seems economically foolish in the kindest of words for us to be doing so.   However, I don't know that we can state that definitively going into the future that the price of oil and gas will hold either.  If either of us could we need to log out of here and start trading oil futures immediately and retire. 

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  • 4 weeks later...

I agree that this photo in and of itself is nothing, but I continue to find the MSM's lack of interest in investigating Biden's clear cognitive decline to be disappointing, although not surprising.  

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3 hours ago, parrot said:

What a stupid thing to try to make a story out of.  

It'll get clicks.

I'm more disappointed in the complete lack of interest in Hunter's racist filled tweets.  Absolute crickets.  If Trump Jr had done that it would be the only thing on the news.  Cancel culture, unless you're in the untouchable class, then no one brings it up.  Not the press, not BLM, not Maxine/Ilhan/Rashida.  Completely floored at the subservience of the fourth estate to the blue ruling class.

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27 minutes ago, Sand said:

It'll get clicks.

I'm more disappointed in the complete lack of interest in Hunter's racist filled tweets.  Absolute crickets.  If Trump Jr had done that it would be the only thing on the news.  Cancel culture, unless you're in the untouchable class, then no one brings it up.  Not the press, not BLM, not Maxine/Ilhan/Rashida.  Completely floored at the subservience of the fourth estate to the blue ruling class.

Yep.  They are nothing but propaganda for the DNC and liberals everywhere.

They have failed the people on a scale that makes Pravda look legit.

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Since this is a democracy instead of an autocracy there isn’t one person running the country, and there is not supposed to be. We have 3 branches of government with a President and a legislative branch who also are in charge of oversight including oversight of that President much to the chagrin  of the previous wanna be dictator. Guess he thought the DOJ was his to investigate those doing oversight.

https://apnews.com/article/government-and-politics-donald-trump-5b6f6bf0daf8bccf106a90d2ff52686c

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  • 2 months later...
10 minutes ago, knowledge dropper said:

Worth a bump in light of recent comments by Biden.  

Did you see the "pineapple express" trend over the weekend.  Apparently, there have been unsanctioned operations by our military to rescue friendlies.  I wonder who is calling these shots?

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12 minutes ago, Prinefan said:

His predecessor set that bar too high for anyone else.

It is one thing to send mean tweets but we have a President who can't handle taking questions from the media that are not scripted and he is either too stupid or senial  to not admit this to us.

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