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2021 Topps MLB Bowman Baseball Mega Box (1 Viewer)

S

Shaq90

Footballguy
Does anyone have any leads where I can acquire this product? I received information from a reputable source that you're able to buy these for $30 to $40 a pop and sell them for 3/4x that price in 6-9 months when the 2022 MLB season rolls around.

I wanted to drop a couple thousand on some cards but I waited too long and now they're unavailable. I'm also open to hearing about other bubbles/shortages related to our "new world" that one could profiteer from.

https://www.target.com/p/2021-topps-mlb-bowman-baseball-mega-box/-/A-81888102

 
Shaq90 said:
Does anyone have any leads where I can acquire this product? I received information from a reputable source that you're able to buy these for $30 to $40 a pop and sell them for 3/4x that price in 6-9 months when the 2022 MLB season rolls around.

I wanted to drop a couple thousand on some cards but I waited too long and now they're unavailable. I'm also open to hearing about other bubbles/shortages related to our "new world" that one could profiteer from.

https://www.target.com/p/2021-topps-mlb-bowman-baseball-mega-box/-/A-81888102
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Target usually restocks cards online from 7-8 am eastern on Fridays. Bots went after the Bowman megas pretty hard two weeks ago but not so much last week — they stayed in stock for a few hours and I got one. You’re limited to 10 boxes and Target will cancel any duplicate orders you try.

 
I think you are a little late--the trading card market is in for a correction as things open up and I wouldn't want to be the one holding a bunch of retail products when it happens. Check out the trading card thread for more of this talk. 

 
Courtjester said:
I think you are a little late--the trading card market is in for a correction as things open up and I wouldn't want to be the one holding a bunch of retail products when it happens. Check out the trading card thread for more of this talk. 
Click to expand...
The correction will be ugly also.

 
Shaq90 said:
Does anyone have any leads where I can acquire this product? I received information from a reputable source that you're able to buy these for $30 to $40 a pop and sell them for 3/4x that price in 6-9 months when the 2022 MLB season rolls around.

I wanted to drop a couple thousand on some cards but I waited too long and now they're unavailable. I'm also open to hearing about other bubbles/shortages related to our "new world" that one could profiteer from.

https://www.target.com/p/2021-topps-mlb-bowman-baseball-mega-box/-/A-81888102
Click to expand...
I don't think selling them for 75% of what you paid is wise.

 
It’s insane, the hits are few and far between when they crank up the presses.  If he wants them to rip, I would just buy the singles off of eBay.  

 
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FairWarning said:
The correction will be ugly also.
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There will be no correction on sealed product, as that is relatively stable.   Especially if you get your hands on the retail wax from Target at 20 bucks a shot.   I do agree you'll see a correction with ####ty player single cards in the coming months but if the plan is to keep sealed until 2022 then it's +EV on the value and could return a nice profit.  Sealed product is where you want to be right now unless you love to gamble and don't care about losing your initial investment.

 
caustic said:
Target usually restocks cards online from 7-8 am eastern on Fridays. Bots went after the Bowman megas pretty hard two weeks ago but not so much last week — they stayed in stock for a few hours and I got one. You’re limited to 10 boxes and Target will cancel any duplicate orders you try.
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This should be the focus right here.  Check the site tomorrow morning between 6-7am and look for blaster or mega boxes.   Was able to get the max amount of each last week and it's en route.  

 
harryhood said:
There will be no correction on sealed product, as that is relatively stable.   Especially if you get your hands on the retail wax from Target at 20 bucks a shot.   I do agree you'll see a correction with ####ty player single cards in the coming months but if the plan is to keep sealed until 2022 then it's +EV on the value and could return a nice profit.  Sealed product is where you want to be right now unless you love to gamble and don't care about losing your initial investment.
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It may be where you want to be if you only care about making money.  It has basically kicked us set collectors to the curb.

 
Oh wow! I can't believe how many responses I got. I didn't get any responses in the first 6 hours, so I figured nobody was into this kind of thing. Woke up this morning to see a lot of great feedback.

Loving the responses. Let me reread everything and get some feedback going.

 
FairWarning said:
Are you buying them for yourself?
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Buying purely for speculative investment purposes. My buddy was showing me how 2020 packs were going significantly over the retail value in which they were purchased less than a year prior. I figure at worst, if I bought a couple thousand dollars worth that WORST CASE SCENARIO I could sell them to break even a year later.

It makes sense to me, that somewhere on the internet exist nerds who will pay TWO TIMES the retail price to get their hands on sealed packs from the previous year. If incels are willing to pay $15 a month for a chicks OnlyFans page when porn is free, they'll shell out big bucks for their favorite nerdy hobby.

 
caustic said:
Target usually restocks cards online from 7-8 am eastern on Fridays. Bots went after the Bowman megas pretty hard two weeks ago but not so much last week — they stayed in stock for a few hours and I got one. You’re limited to 10 boxes and Target will cancel any duplicate orders you try.
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This is the holy grail of information. Thank you for this. You did not have to be so forthcoming with this information. Send me your PayPal and I will buy you lunch for being so forthcoming with the goods.

 
Courtjester said:
I think you are a little late--the trading card market is in for a correction as things open up and I wouldn't want to be the one holding a bunch of retail products when it happens. Check out the trading card thread for more of this talk. 
Click to expand...
This is my general fear. Typically, when people "outside" of a hobby start getting interested in said hobby, the bubble is about to burst. However, I feel like unsealed packs are always going to retain some type of value and I've been told (not sure if true), that Topps recently increased the price of their cards per pack?

I like that as a method to continue to inflate card prices and act as a barrier to entry (if $1,000 bought 200 packs before, now it only buys 150). From a basic market perspective, it appears that controls are being set to monitor all this.

But yes, if everyone is sitting on unopened packs a year from now. The scarcity driver is not there.

 
FairWarning said:
It’s insane, the hits are few and far between when they crank up the presses.  If he wants them to rip, I would just buy the singles off of eBay.  
Click to expand...
That's the funny part right. Assuming I can make a decent profit selling these a year from now (if I invested a $2,000 to $3,000). Wouldn't that put in the territory to BUY every card of value from the series? Therefore, cutting out the middleman in a sense?

 
Shaq90 said:
That's the funny part right. Assuming I can make a decent profit selling these a year from now (if I invested a $2,000 to $3,000). Wouldn't that put in the territory to BUY every card of value from the series? Therefore, cutting out the middleman in a sense?
Click to expand...
Not always the way it works because the market is sooooo reactionary to individual player performances its insane.   Many people now in the hobby don't care to understand how slumps/adjustment time in baseball work.  Vlad Jr. Chrome rookie cards could have been bought dirt cheap in bulk this winter.  Now they are 4x-5x the price they were in February.  If he falls off a cliff for just a week or gets a month long DL stint then the price is going to tank back down to February levels.  

If you're going the route of single player cards and are trying to earn an ROI you need to check in on the player market daily and almost think like a day trader.  Speaking from experience that's a LOT of work.

Sealed product allows one to many players in that release be able to gain steam and keep the product valuable.   So for the release you're looking at (2021 Bowman), if Austin Martin never becomes a guy anyone holding singles of him is in for a rough dip.  Those holding the sealed wax product don't really care about Martin specifically so long as guys like Maximo Acosta, Kevin Alcantara, Hedbert Perez, and Heriberto Hernandez stay on the hype train. 

Lastly, however you choose to invest I would suggest sticking to licensed releases and chrome finish.  So Bowman and Topps only where Chrome is in the release.  Nothing else will retain the value like Topps/Bowman Chrome cards/boxes and the Panini products for baseball aren't licensed so they can't use logos.  All their cards look like the old post cereal boxes with a generic uniform.  

 
Shaq90 said:
That's the funny part right. Assuming I can make a decent profit selling these a year from now (if I invested a $2,000 to $3,000). Wouldn't that put in the territory to BUY every card of value from the series? Therefore, cutting out the middleman in a sense?
Click to expand...
I’m not a bowman fan at all.  There are so many late bloomers and overhyped prospects, making your proposition very chancy.  

 
Shaq90 said:
This is my general fear. Typically, when people "outside" of a hobby start getting interested in said hobby, the bubble is about to burst. However, I feel like unsealed packs are always going to retain some type of value and I've been told (not sure if true), that Topps recently increased the price of their cards per pack?

I like that as a method to continue to inflate card prices and act as a barrier to entry (if $1,000 bought 200 packs before, now it only buys 150). From a basic market perspective, it appears that controls are being set to monitor all this.

But yes, if everyone is sitting on unopened packs a year from now. The scarcity driver is not there.
Click to expand...
What I base my assessment on (and i could be completely wrong) is I believe the companies are going to look at last year and not see it as a byproduct of a pandemic, but as a chance to make a profit moving forward by producing more product. You will never know the production numbers, but just seeing the amount of this product available on Ebay right now (a lot without bids) and knowing you can still buy it at cost at a retail level, would cause me concern as far as an investment. 

I think a percentage of the people that got in because of Covid are going to be slowly but surely jumping ship over the next year or two as they find new things to spend their money on. . Maybe I am totally making a blanket statement here, but I would put the percentage of people that were standing in line to get retail at probably 95% flippers/breakers and 5% collectors. Once the quick money goes, the flippers go and all that is left is this glut of product sitting on Target's shelf the way it was pre-pandemic.  Plus once the Covid collectors start exiting, value will be had as they dump their current inventory to free up money to fund their "new" investment opportunities. The next get rich quick scheme is always just around the corner.

I think we can all agree that PSA suspending new grading to relieve the backlog is going to result in a massive influx of graded cards appearing on Ebay once those cards start returning to their owners. I bet a lot of flippers are going to be extremely upset when they find 25 PSA 10 Bol Bol Hoops cards listed and all they will get as a bid will equal 1/3 of what they paid to get it graded.

To each his own. I don't buy cards for profit. I have been collecting for over 30 years and have over a million cards. I have never looked at this as a way to get rich, which is probably my loss, but I see what is happening in the card industry as a bubble and a short lived one at that.

 
Great post by Courtjester and exactly how I feel.  Its all Gary Vee followers and Bot Bois.  If I didn't have a stake, I wouldn't care about the markets either.  As a 52 year collector, i hate to see the market like this now.  I knew when the grading companies entered, followed by the flippers, it would happen.  

 
FairWarning said:
Great post by Courtjester and exactly how I feel.  Its all Gary Vee followers and Bot Bois.  If I didn't have a stake, I wouldn't care about the markets either.  As a 52 year collector, i hate to see the market like this now.  I knew when the grading companies entered, followed by the flippers, it would happen.  
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As someone who is a big fan of Gary Vee (wearing my GV005s as I type this), do you really think he has had that big of an impact on the market? I still feel like the boredom of the lockdown and the free Stimulus checks for those that might not have needed them. Just curious to hear other opinions.

 
Bogart said:
As someone who is a big fan of Gary Vee (wearing my GV005s as I type this), do you really think he has had that big of an impact on the market? I still feel like the boredom of the lockdown and the free Stimulus checks for those that might not have needed them. Just curious to hear other opinions.
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I think he has a huge effect.  The market just doesn’t move that high without outsiders coming in.

 
It's good that the ire seems to stem from the legitimate collectors. The whole thing seems pyramid schemish. Like, I bought these packs for $30.00 and can already resell them on eBay for $45 a pack, the trick is that you don't "receive" the packs until June 16th. The profit margins are there.

This shipping delay effectively acts as a buffer. People buy it now, seeing that the cards are selling for $60 a pack. But what happens on the 16th? Market gets immediately flooded.


At some point "somebody" gets caught holding. Again, I think they are sandbagging delivery times to build up demand. Love it. There's a reason I'm buying MLB cards and not NFL / NBA. Topps has been doing this for years and if anyone can lead another baseball card boom, it's these guys.

 
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Shaq90 said:
It's good that the ire seems to stem from the legitimate collectors. The whole thing seems pyramid schemish. Like, I bought these packs for $30.00 and can already resell them on eBay for $45 a pack, the trick is that you don't "receive" the packs until June 16th. The profit margins are there.

This shipping delay effectively acts as a buffer. People buy it now, seeing that the cards are selling for $60 a pack. But what happens on the 16th? Market gets immediately flooded.


At some point "somebody" gets caught holding. Again, I think they are sandbagging delivery times to build up demand. Love it. There's a reason I'm buying MLB cards and not NFL / NBA. Topps has been doing this for years and if anyone can lead another baseball card boom, it's these guys.
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The other thing that could happen is buyers return the pack if the market drops.  eBay has to issue a refund, no matter what the seller says.  It’s a big game of chicken right now.  
 

You are correct, it is very much like a Ponzi scheme.  I fight with those people on blowout cards all day.  They tell me to collect something else.

 
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We had a shooting incident in a Target parking lot here last year, which was found to be related to a restocking of trading cards.  It seems some people recognized the car of the stocking guy who was bringing cards to Target that day (several people recognized it) and the guns came out.  None of our local Targets stock cards anymore.

 
Shaq90 said:
It's good that the ire seems to stem from the legitimate collectors. The whole thing seems pyramid schemish. Like, I bought these packs for $30.00 and can already resell them on eBay for $45 a pack, the trick is that you don't "receive" the packs until June 16th. The profit margins are there.

This shipping delay effectively acts as a buffer. People buy it now, seeing that the cards are selling for $60 a pack. But what happens on the 16th? Market gets immediately flooded.


At some point "somebody" gets caught holding. Again, I think they are sandbagging delivery times to build up demand. Love it. There's a reason I'm buying MLB cards and not NFL / NBA. Topps has been doing this for years and if anyone can lead another baseball card boom, it's these guys.
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MySlabs is a great avenue for selling wax whenever you're ready. Short but thorough sellers application and they only take 1-2% of your sale total.  Also no buyer is allowed to return their purchase for idiotic reasons as they do not don't give the buyers every out imaginable like Ebay does.  

https://myslabs.com/slab/view/249776/

 
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CletiusMaximus said:
We had a shooting incident in a Target parking lot here last year, which was found to be related to a restocking of trading cards.  It seems some people recognized the car of the stocking guy who was bringing cards to Target that day (several people recognized it) and the guns came out.  None of our local Targets stock cards anymore.
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People were also placing tracking devices on the cars so they knew who was the next account to be serviced.

 
Have my alarm set for 7:20a ET. Not sure why I'm being that exact, but that's what I'm doing. Apparently they drop basketball/football on Thursday and baseball on Friday's?

:shrug:

 
Senor Schmutzig said:
Have my alarm set for 7:20a ET. Not sure why I'm being that exact, but that's what I'm doing. Apparently they drop basketball/football on Thursday and baseball on Friday's?

:shrug:
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For the last several weeks they dropped everything on Friday — they actually did a small restock of football & basketball this morning though. I totally missed it because I was waiting for Friday.

There’s some speculation that this morning’s small restock was to test some new bot detection methods, but we’ll see.

 
You know what's even more fun than flipping cards for profit? Actually being a collector and being able to get cards at reasonable prices to open with your kid (or by yourself) instead of having to pay huge markups to d-bags with no intention of keeping the cards just looking to make a quick buck. 

 
Frostillicus said:
You know what's even more fun than flipping cards for profit? Actually being a collector and being able to get cards at reasonable prices to open with your kid (or by yourself) instead of having to pay huge markups to d-bags with no intention of keeping the cards just looking to make a quick buck. 
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I'm sorry to hear about your Minnesota Twins.

 
Frostillicus said:
You know what's even more fun than flipping cards for profit? Actually being a collector and being able to get cards at reasonable prices to open with your kid (or by yourself) instead of having to pay huge markups to d-bags with no intention of keeping the cards just looking to make a quick buck. 
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#TopshotThis

 
Shaq90 said:
####!!! I snoozed and I lost (again). Appreciate the heads up, of course Tuesday is my day off work so I slept in... :lol:
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They've gone back to mixing up the restock days so grabbing these is a bit more work now. If there's a Barnes and Noble in your area you could also check there, lots of locations sell cards and people have been finding Bowman blasters & megas there recently.

 
caustic said:
They've gone back to mixing up the restock days so grabbing these is a bit more work now. If there's a Barnes and Noble in your area you could also check there, lots of locations sell cards and people have been finding Bowman blasters & megas there recently.
Click to expand...
I mean, that's good for Topps but bad for me. :lol:

Appreciate the updates! Without you, I would own zero packs. So appreciate your due diligence!!

 
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