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Is this package worth 1.5?


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I am in a 12 team dynasty league, .5 PPR, start 1QB, 1RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, TE.  I am the returning champ and have no needs at all.  I have 1.5 & 1.8 and will be drafting for talent alone.  I was just offered:

Give:

1.5 (after reading the league it will most likely be Etienne with a small chance of Pitts)

Get:

Noah Fant, AB, 2.6, and a 2023 1st (guaranteed to be top 6 or will roll over until it is and he currently has 2 picks in that draft).

 

My Roster:

QB - Dak, Wentz, Darnold, Big Ben

RB - Barkley, Kamara, Mixon, David Montgomery, Gus Edwards, Benny Snell, Gio, Ty Johnson, Eno Benjamin

WR - Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, A-Rob, Sterling Shepard, Breshad Perriman, Jalen Reagor, Quintez Cephus

TE - Travis Kelce, Irv Smith

 

Thoughts?  Is it worth it?  I'm seriously considering it.

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First compliments on a well defined ask .... only question is are TE PPR Premium?  If so, it comes down to Fant vs Pitts

1) If you want to "nit pick", your needs are a better QB2 & TE2 in case of injury.  What happens if Kelce misses time?  Your season could rely on Irv Smith.  Ouch!

I like Wentz more than most, but insurance is never a bad thing for a QB who as missed time 3 years in a row. 

2) I think the package is a good offer... I am a big believer in Fant.  I value him as Top 5 TE potential.  It all depends on the QB (Lock vs Teddy).  I think Teddy will be better for Fant but worse for Jeudy/Sutton.  Teddy is a intermediate range QB. 

 

Overall, If you think Pitts will be there, if comes down to Fant & 2023 1st vs Pitts.  Fant is TE7 while Pitts is TE5 (marginal difference IMO).  AB & 2.06 are negligible for you.  Based on SOS, Pitts has a rougher 2021, but talentwise, he should be a better prospect.  But to get a Top 6 1st?  TAKE THE DEAL!  

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Posted (edited)

Im going to go with an opposite answer to birdie even though i agree with alot of his points. 

I hower am not a fan of trading draft picks unless im getting a player that i can start. Also i tend to only trade 1st round picks for RB or WR as their production is easier to predict in many casses than a TE.

If you really want to trade the picks i would look to package them with Mixon , Montgomery, or A-rob for a top end RB or WR bases on your starting requirements, as right now 1 of those 3 is your 2nd flex player. Without knowing your league you may have a team with CMC who would love a multi-player deal with some picks for him. Or even the calvin riddley owner, metcalf those type of guys. 

Your in the drivers seat right now and can use it as leverage. Unles your AB is AJ brown and not Antonio brown if its AJ Brown accept accept accept.

Edited by thawkprime21
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No TE premium (.5 PPR for all).  It is Antonio Brown but there is an owner that wants him so he will be worth a 2nd to that owner.  I tried some packages but CMC was already traded so isn't going anywhere and the Cook, Metcalf, and Ridley owners won't trade.  About half of the league you can trade with but the other half, not so much.

I don't want to trade the picks at all.  Just figured that the offer was good enough to consider.  I am a Fant believer, plan on getting a 2nd for AB, get a mid-2nd, and a for sure top 6 pick even if I have to wait but my team can wait.

I usually don't trade 1 piece for a bunch of small ones but this one interested me.  Not getting the top 5 player in this draft that I have been looking at for months has me really questioning it though.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Jonesin For Some Football said:

No TE premium (.5 PPR for all).  It is Antonio Brown but there is an owner that wants him so he will be worth a 2nd to that owner.  I tried some packages but CMC was already traded so isn't going anywhere and the Cook, Metcalf, and Ridley owners won't trade.  About half of the league you can trade with but the other half, not so much.

I don't want to trade the picks at all.  Just figured that the offer was good enough to consider.  I am a Fant believer, plan on getting a 2nd for AB, get a mid-2nd, and a for sure top 6 pick even if I have to wait but my team can wait.

I usually don't trade 1 piece for a bunch of small ones but this one interested me.  Not getting the top 5 player in this draft that I have been looking at for months has me really questioning it though.

Allright, so it sounds like your plan is to trade 1st this year, for fant, 2 2nds, and a future 1st that you are hopeing is top half. So if you back up and look your trading 1.5 this year for what you hope is no worse than 1.5 in 2023 and getting fant and 2 2nds, which isnt a bad deal especially if those 2nds are early this year. I would counter with 1.8 and if you need to not aquire brown or the 2nd it would be worth it. As you still have top 5 this year and a potential top 5 in 2023 with anything else you get just being a bonus.

Edited by thawkprime21
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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, thawkprime21 said:

Allright, so it sounds like your plan is to trade 2 1st this year, for fant, 2 2nds, and a future 1st that you are hopeing is top half. So if you back up and look your trading 1.5 this year for what you hope is no worse than 1.5 in 2023 and 1.8 for 2 2nds and fant. To me that is giving up to much especially in a 1QB league. When fant in many cases is able to be gotten for a 2nd and you could keep your first.

It would be only for 1.5 so only 1 1st.  Not 2.  I'm sorry if that wasn't clear.  I keep 1.8 either way.

Edited by Jonesin For Some Football
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Just now, Jonesin For Some Football said:

It would be only for 1.5 so only 1 1st.  Not 2.  I'm sorry if that wasn't clear.  I keep 1.8 either way.

i see that now my mistake, i edited my post to reflect that and say id try to keep 1.5 and trade 1.8 even if that means not getting brown or the 2nd.

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4 minutes ago, thawkprime21 said:

Allright, so it sounds like your plan is to trade 2 1st this year, for fant, 2 2nds, and a future 1st that you are hopeing is top half. So if you back up and look your trading 1.5 this year for what you hope is no worse than 1.5 in 2023 and 1.8 for 2 2nds and fant. To me that is giving up to much especially in a 1QB league. When fant in many cases is able to be gotten for a 2nd and you could keep your first.

Based on what I can see, he's trading just one 1st this year...  I am not a fan of AB, but if you get a 2nd for him, IMO, the value of the trade is in your favor.  In 6 of my dynasty drafts already (TE premium of 1.5 per, just that difference), PItt never made it past the 3rd pick.  And I feel will not make it to pick 5. 

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3 minutes ago, jwsbowler said:

Based on what I can see, he's trading just one 1st this year...  I am not a fan of AB, but if you get a 2nd for him, IMO, the value of the trade is in your favor.  In 6 of my dynasty drafts already (TE premium of 1.5 per, just that difference), PItt never made it past the 3rd pick.  And I feel will not make it to pick 5. 

Ya with Julio gone now his value has gone up.  The top 3 draft picks are either RB needy or love RBs a ton so Harris, Williams, Etienne could go top 3.  If that happens I know 4 would take Chase and Pitts would slide.  I think Harris at 1 and Williams at 3 are locks.  2 could go Williams to force 3 to take Etienne (he is in desparate need of a RB) but 2 could also go Chase and Pitts would go 4.  He won't go in the top 3 in this draft.

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I would keep it and take PItts.  The upside is too great and the other pieces you would be getting just don't have that upside.  When you have the team you have getting the chance at a generational talent (whether you think Pitts is that or not doesn't matter......there is a chance it happens)  could extend your reign for years to come.  

 

I also never count on someone else trading me what I want for a piece I am getting in another trade.  That never seems to workout so unless you have it written in stone I wouldn't count on getting a second for AB.  If that is what you want have the other guy trade AB for the 2nd first and then put that 2nd in your deal so you are assured of getting that piece.  

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I love this offer and would definitely accept it. You're basically just delaying the 1.05 pick for a couple years (yes that sucks but you're looking pretty good for this year and next year), and then obtaining 3 pretty decent assets meantime for nothing other than that delay.

However, I'm intrigued by this "guaranteed top 6 pick and rollover if not" thing. If I understand correctly, you're saying if he has a top 6 pick in 2023 [edit], you receive that, or if not you get his 2024 pick if it's top 6, or if not you get his 2025 pick if it's top 6, etc.... The only wrench that throws into the deal is, what if he turns out to be decent? If he is even average, there's a 50% chance each year that you delay your pick again. What if he lasts 7 years before finishing in the bottom half 😂. Moreover, aside from basic decency and sportsmanship, especially if he is an actual friend, is there anything that prevents him from now trading his first round picks ... Every year? And thereby indefinitely avoiding his payment?

Edited by eighsse
Typo
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