Democrats are losing Latino voters (1 Viewer)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/texans-elect-the-first-gop-mayor-of-latino-majority-mcallen-in-24-years-2021-6%3famp

So this is an interesting trend and it should be quite worrisome for my fellow Democrats: 2020 showed a upswing in Latino votes for Republicans, and now this latest election continues the pattern. 
 

From everything I’m reading there are 3 reasons why more Latinos are voting for Republicans: 

1. Immigration. Many Latinos already here agree with the tough Republican stand on immigration. Obviously I don’t, but I have to call it as I see it. Of course, many Latinos are far more liberal on this issue. But there is a clearly a divide and it’s not at all clear how this will trend in the future. 
 

2. “Defund the police”. What a stupid stupid STUPID slogan for progressives to promote. Don’t bother trying to explain that it doesn’t mean what they think it means- by the time you have to explain it someone you’ve already lost the argument. Latino voters hear progressives talk about this crap and they run, not walk, in the other direction. 
 

3. Climate change and anti-fracking. This might be the biggest problem of all especially in a state like Texas. I have long written that progressive “solutions” to climate change are not only unworkable but a big political loser. Man made climate change is real and we have to do something about it. But so long as progressives push for getting rid of fracking and other draconian solutions that hurt local economies, you’re going to see Latino voters and anyone else dependent on these industries voting for Republicans. That’s a no brainer. 
 

Democrats had better wake up or they’re going to be back in the minority again. Soon. 

Fracking may be one of the, if not the single, worst thing we've ever done to our environment.  You can say Democrats should get better at their messaging around anti-fracking policies, but an argument that we should be pro-fracking because it will help win elections seems counter-productive if the goal is to help the environment.

Rich Conway said:

Fracking may be one of the, if not the single, worst thing we've ever done to our environment.  You can say Democrats should get better at their messaging around anti-fracking policies, but an argument that we should be pro-fracking because it will help win elections seems counter-productive if the goal is to help the environment.

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I am not saying that Democrats need to be pro-fracking. But if you’re going to be openly anti-fracking then you’d better have a good alternative already in place. Or you’re going to lose elections in places where fracking is big. It’s that simple. People are not going to vote to sacrifice their jobs, full stop. They never have and never will. 

timschochet said:

I am not saying that Democrats need to be pro-fracking. But if you’re going to be openly anti-fracking then you’d better have a good alternative already in place. Or you’re going to lose elections in places where fracking is big. It’s that simple. People are not going to vote to sacrifice their jobs, full stop. They never have and never will. 

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The two bolded are contradictory.  Even if the anti-fracking person has a good alternative prepared (solar, wind, nuclear, foreign oil, space lasers, magic pixie dust), it won't be for the same people in the same place with the same jobs.

Rich Conway said:

The two bolded are contradictory.  Even if the anti-fracking person has a good alternative prepared (solar, wind, nuclear, foreign oil, space lasers, magic pixie dust), it won't be for the same people in the same place with the same jobs.

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Then I don’t know what to tell you. Democrats cannot oppose fracking and expect to compete in communities where fracking is a significant economic factor. It’s irreconcilable. 

timschochet said:

  Democrats had better wake up or they’re going to be back in the minority again. Soon. 

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Meh. Seems like you're always clutching your pearls and acting like Chicken Little (to mix metaphors) over something the Democrats have done or have not done and it usually turns out be a big nothing. 

Yes Biden lost some Latinos voters, mostly Cubans in Florida, because he was falsely painted in Spanish language advertising as the second coming of Fidel Castro or Hugo Chavez (maybe both). When they see that this country hasn't turned into a Socialist or Communist nation under Biden, most of those defections should return to the Democratic party.

timschochet said:

Then I don’t know what to tell you. Democrats cannot oppose fracking and expect to compete in communities where fracking is a significant economic factor. It’s irreconcilable. 

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Sure.  And pro-fracking policies and messages won't win elections in CT, CA, MA, RI, etc.  Sometimes you have to choose.  In this case, I would prefer to pick what's right, not what's popular.

squistion said:

Meh. Seems like you're always clutching your pearls over and acting like Chicken Little (to mix metaphors) over something the Democrats have done or have not done and it usually turns out be a big nothing. 

Yes Biden lost some Latinos voters, mostly Cubans in Florida, because he was falsely painted in Spanish language advertising as the second coming of Fidel Castro or Hugo Chavez (maybe both). When they see that this country hasn't turned into a Socialist or Communist nation under Biden, most of those defections should return to the Democratic party.

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I don’t think you’re paying close enough attention to trends. Latinos aren’t voting Republican because of esoteric threats like Communism, they’re voting Republican because of what they perceive to be REAL immediate  threats like losing their jobs to anti-fracking restrictions, or “defund police”, or the crisis at the border. 

timschochet said:

I am not saying that Democrats need to be pro-fracking. But if you’re going to be openly anti-fracking then you’d better have a good alternative already in place. Or you’re going to lose elections in places where fracking is big. It’s that simple. People are not going to vote to sacrifice their jobs, full stop. They never have and never will. 

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This is why the ultimate survival of the human species (and countless others) on planet earth may ultimately be doomed.  People will always act in their immediate self interest.  By the time that immediate self interest is truly threatened by ecological disaster, it will already be too late.  We will see some of it in our lifetime play out in coastal communities.

Rich Conway said:

Fracking may be one of the, if not the single, worst thing we've ever done to our environment.

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1000% agree

timschochet said:

Many Latinos already here agree with the tough Republican stand on immigration

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why do you think that is ?

timschochet said:

2. “Defund the police”. What a stupid stupid STUPID slogan for progressives to promote. Don’t bother trying to explain that it doesn’t mean what they think it means- by the time you have to explain it someone you’ve already lost the argument. Latino voters hear progressives talk about this crap and they run, not walk, in the other direction. 
 

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Maybe I'm not sure what you mean, but from what I've seen and heard many on the left do support defunding/abolishing police.  Any attempt I've seen to describe it as something else comes off as a patronizing "whitesplaining"  of what their message is because it is in fact a losing political position.

squistion said:

Seems like you're always clutching your pearls and acting like Chicken Little

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Very

psychobillies said:

Maybe I'm not sure what you mean, but from what I've seen and heard many on the left do support defunding/abolishing police.  Any attempt I've seen to describe it as something else comes off as a patronizing "whitesplaining"  of what their message is because it is in fact a losing political position.

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Not true and only a small minority of the left are calling for this as it is not realistic to take away all funding or abolish the police force. The serious talk is about police reform and reallocating some funds to accomplish that. 

squistion said:

Not true and only a small minority of the left are calling for this as it is not realistic to take away all funding or abolish the police force. The serious talk is about police reform and reallocating some funds to accomplish that. 

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This is the beginning of the defund movement as I remember it.  I'm not sure how much more clear they can be.

Ocasio-Cortez

"Defunding police means defunding police," Ocasio-Cortez said in a June 30 statement -- about a month after George Floyd's death. "It does not mean budget tricks or funny math. It does not mean moving school police officers from the NYPD budget to the Department of Education’s budget so the exact same police remain in schools."

psychobillies said:

Ocasio-Cortez

"Defunding police means defunding police," Ocasio-Cortez said in a June 30 statement -- about a month after George Floyd's death. "It does not mean budget tricks or funny math. It does not mean moving school police officers from the NYPD budget to the Department of Education’s budget so the exact same police remain in schools."

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Yes. 
And a part of me believes that she might be right about this. Perhaps society would be better off if this happened. I’m honestly not sure, and I’m open to the discussion. 
 

But that’s irrelevant. Here’s what I KNOW: it’s a political loser. Votes that Democrats desperately need to win elections are going to go in the other direction over this issue. 

timschochet said:

Yes. 
And a part of me believes that she might be right about this. Perhaps society would be better off if this happened. I’m honestly not sure, and I’m open to the discussion. 
 

But that’s irrelevant. Here’s what I KNOW: it’s a political loser. Votes that Democrats desperately need to win elections are going to go in the other direction over this issue. 

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I couldn't agree less with your first statement or more with your second.  

psychobillies said:

I couldn't agree less with your first sentence or more with your second.  

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Well as I wrote my first sentence, which is just random thoughts, is irrelevant. 

timschochet said:

Well as I wrote my first sentence, which is just random thoughts, is irrelevant. 

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Understood.

psychobillies said:

Maybe I'm not sure what you mean, but from what I've seen and heard many on the left do support defunding/abolishing police.  Any attempt I've seen to describe it as something else comes off as a patronizing "whitesplaining"  of what their message is because it is in fact a losing political position.

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A thousand times this. Instead of explaining it away, perhaps the slogan is inherently intentional and very true to the beliefs of the progenitors of the slogans. Now, that might not play well at the DNC, but ask the people who made the slogan what they meant when they did it.

Defund the police meant exactly what they say it means. Don't let the DNC apologists whitewash the term. It was used by black radicals into queer theory and Marxism. Just flat out can't make that #### up.

squistion said:

Meh. Seems like you're always clutching your pearls and acting like Chicken Little (to mix metaphors) over something the Democrats have done or have not done and it usually turns out be a big nothing. 

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A ***** in the armour..you two  usually march in lockstep.

zoonation said:

This is why the ultimate survival of the human species (and countless others) on planet earth may ultimately be doomed.  People will always act in their immediate self interest.  By the time that immediate self interest is truly threatened by ecological disaster, it will already be too late.  We will see some of it in our lifetime play out in coastal communities.

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FACT X100000

As the Chinese continue to obtain middle class and the comforts that come with it, think they will sacrifice it for global warming?  Think Africans will?   

Utterly ridiculous to think so.  To believe that underlines a fundamental misunderstanding of how people work think and act.  

timschochet said:

Democrats had better wake up or they’re going to be back in the minority again. Soon. 

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when these 4 Biden years end, the national debt is 40+ trillion, gas is $5 a gallon, inflation has soared, poverty higher, taxes higher ... when people see just how bad these socialist economic spending ideas affect common working blue collar American's ..... Latino vote will be the last of the Democrat party's problems IMO

I personally know at least half a dozen people who literally want to defund the police and abolish prisons.  Those folks aren't representative of the Biden/Klobuchar/Buttigieg wing of the Democratic party, but they absolutely exist in real life.

Also, those exact same people are still walking around outraged over Brock Turner getting off easy for raping a woman while she was passed out.  Intellectual consistency is not highly value in that corner of the world.

supermike80 said:

FACT X100000

As the Chinese continue to obtain middle class and the comforts that come with it, think they will sacrifice it for global warming?  Think Africans will?   

Utterly ridiculous to think so.  To believe that underlines a fundamental misunderstanding of how people work think and act.  

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One of the very rare times I agree with you. I do NOT agree with @zoonation that climate change cannot be dealt with- it can and it must. But the way to do it is to provide the public with technology that makes their lives easier, not harder. You’ll never get them to agree to sacrifice. 

timschochet said:

One of the very rare times I agree with you. I do NOT agree with @zoonation that climate change cannot be dealt with- it can and it must. But the way to do it is to provide the public with technology that makes their lives easier, not harder. You’ll never get them to agree to sacrifice. 

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The problem is, in my opinion, the instant change is where sacrifice will need to take place an no one wants to give up what they have.  Or very few anyway.

Longer term maybe....but we're talking generational change.

IvanKaramazov said:

I personally know at least half a dozen people who literally want to defund the police and abolish prisons.  Those folks aren't representative of the Biden/Klobuchar/Buttigieg wing of the Democratic party, but they absolutely exist in real life.

Also, those exact same people are still walking around outraged over Brock Turner getting off easy for raping a woman while she was passed out.  Intellectual consistency is not highly value in that corner of the world.

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I would imagine it's the same for those who think Trump is still the legit president.   They are vocal, and the media loves to point them out to scare the left--which isn't terribly hard to do after the Trump years.   But I do not think they are representative of republicans in general.  

squistion said:

... The serious talk is about police reform and reallocating some funds to accomplish that. 

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While I am not going to pretend to know what any political leader actually means by "defund the police" this is only part of what this phrase should mean - assuming that we are stuck with it.   There are many variations of these phrases and I don't know who to attribute which but the "defund the police" at its root seems to be taking sides in the "guns vs butter" or "walls versus bread" and even "they eat cake we eat crumbs" debate.  And I'm pretty sure if I still had my college Marx-Engle Reader text book I'd find those themes throughout.  It was part of the "winning message" of the Bolsheviks in the Russian revolution.  But its also part of other Western Political Theory discussions.  And has been a theme to many of my posts over the years.

As a simple example think foreign aid.  Some just don't understand how giving aid to foreigners when there is so much need within our own borders can make any sense.  The fact however is that it is a bargain compared to the military alternative to achieve the same national interest goals.

Its the same idea that ended the promising political career of Kurt Schmoke.  You may not remember the name but this was the former prosecutor who lost friends during a drug raid gone bad that as mayor of Baltimore said out loud in 1988 that maybe we should find alternatives to the war on drugs.   Maybe instead of putting our resources into the criminalization of drug users we should treat it as a health crisis.  Instead of "police" maybe we should try "doctors".    Oh the horror!  In 1988, but now that is pretty much what the masses think even if they won't go as far as legalization/decriminalization.

Instead of more police officers maybe we can allocate more for housing, or mental health, or other forms of counseling, better schools, jobs, etc.     Instead of building walls and creating security forces between the haves and the have nots maybe a few more crumbs are thrown to the have nots.  Maybe we create a few more opportunities beyond selling drugs on the corner.   Sure there is police reform, criminal justice reform  in the mix but I think reallocating a much larger share to social services as opposed to police forces is part of any serious usage of the "defund the police" slogan.   The slogan sucks and yes for some they want to go "all in" and reallocate every penny which is just as silly, but we should constantly be asking ourselves if we have the right mix of "guns" as opposed to "butter".   

It should be obvious that we don't, but whether the slogan and the extremes are allowed to be used to thwart a serious evaluation also seems all too obvious.   But often it takes the radical crazies to get the more serious folks to start to contemplate such things and slowly have the ideas become mainstream.

ETA:  And while the above is focused on allocating of budgetary resources, the discussion would also include what was within the scope of what we call policing.  For example the police officers at schools.  Should a different type of human resource be filling those needs?   (While I guess the "scope" of policing could fall under police reform, not sure that most think of it that way.)

timschochet said:

1. Immigration. Many Latinos already here agree with the tough Republican stand on immigration. Obviously I don’t, but I have to call it as I see it. Of course, many Latinos are far more liberal on this issue. But there is a clearly a divide and it’s not at all clear how this will trend in the future.

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This reminds me a little of the debate about wiping out college debt.  People who followed/played by the rules aren't going to be too fond of just allowing those who didn't to skate.  It's a question of fairness to those folks and as someone who did pay all my student loans back I completely get that perspective.*

*I'm not taking a position on college debt forgiveness or amnesty for folks here illegally - just drawing the comparison to the mindset of some of these folks.

AAABatteries said:

This reminds me a little of the debate about wiping out college debt.  People who followed/played by the rules aren't going to be too fond of just allowing those who didn't to skate.  It's a question of fairness to those folks and as someone who did pay all my student loans back I completely get that perspective.*

*I'm not taking a position on college debt forgiveness or amnesty for folks here illegally - just drawing the comparison to the mindset of some of these folks.

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No I get it. 

zoonation said:

This is why the ultimate survival of the human species (and countless others) on planet earth may ultimately be doomed.  People will always act in their immediate self interest.  By the time that immediate self interest is truly threatened by ecological disaster, it will already be too late.  We will see some of it in our lifetime play out in coastal communities.

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That's why we need to be creative in our solutions - it can't just be "this is for the greater good and for future generations" - that won't work. 

AAABatteries said:

That's why we need to be creative in our solutions - it can't just be "this is for the greater good and for future generations" - that won't work. 

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Actually I don’t think it has to be that creative. It’s a pretty simple fix: we need to throw money at new energy technology. Tons of money, trillions. In the meantime we need to stop trying to restrict the old technologies too much. When the new stuff is economically viable it will replace the old stuff. 

timschochet said:

Actually I don’t think it has to be that creative. It’s a pretty simple fix: we need to throw money at new energy technology. Tons of money, trillions. In the meantime we need to stop trying to restrict the old technologies too much. When the new stuff is economically viable it will replace the old stuff. 

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Not that I disagree, but sort of time frame do you seeing this change happening within?

zoonation said:

Not that I disagree, but sort of time frame do you seeing this change happening within?

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I dunno. There’s no way of predicting how soon a breakthrough will come. 

Hey guys, didn't you hear, though? We call you Latinx for the solidarity with transgendered Latinos and self-identity! Why the catholic outlook?

Rich Conway said:

Fracking may be one of the, if not the single, worst thing we've ever done to our environment.  You can say Democrats should get better at their messaging around anti-fracking policies, but an argument that we should be pro-fracking because it will help win elections seems counter-productive if the goal is to help the environment.

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I was low on the totem pole,  so pretty much took notes, probably about 20-25 years ago...listening to a PE firm support their valuation of their investment in a fracking wastewater removal company.   it's scary, and that's probably not even the right word.  

timschochet said:

2. “Defund the police”. What a stupid stupid STUPID slogan for progressives to promote. Don’t bother trying to explain that it doesn’t mean what they think it means- by the time you have to explain it someone you’ve already lost the argument. Latino voters hear progressives talk about this crap and they run, not walk, in the other direction. 

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This is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen a political party adopt as a talking point.  The Democratic Party has historically been much worse at simple messaging than the Republican Party......but "defund the police".....is so dumb that if someone had told me 20 years ago that this would become a key element of the Democratic platform, I would have looked around to see if I was being secretly filmed by Candid Camera.

Alex P Keaton said:

This is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen a political party adopt as a talking point.  The Democratic Party has historically been much worse at simple messaging than the Republican Party......but "defund the police".....is so dumb that if someone had told me 20 years ago that this would become a key element of the Democratic platform, I would have looked around to see if I was being secretly filmed by Candid Camera.

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To be completely fair it was NEVER a key element of the Democrat platform: in fact all the leading Democrats- Biden, Harris, Pelosi, Clyburn, etc- immediately disavowed it, trying to stem the damage. Even Bernie refused to endorse the idea.  But a few loud progressives like AOC and the Squad, a few BLM leaders, some radical college professors, all of these were enough for the Republicans to paint a picture about the entire Democratic Party…and they’re still painting it. 

timschochet said:

To be completely fair it was NEVER a key element of the Democrat platform: in fact all the leading Democrats- Biden, Harris, Pelosi, Clyburn, etc- immediately disavowed it, trying to stem the damage. Even Bernie refused to endorse the idea.  But a few loud progressives like AOC and the Squad, a few BLM leaders, some radical college professors, all of these were enough for the Republicans to paint a picture about the entire Democratic Party…and they’re still painting it. 

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My leftist and moderate leftist friends all are on board with defunding the police.  None of them even question it.

Alex P Keaton said:

My leftist and moderate leftist friends all are on board with defunding the police.  None of them even question it.

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Sorry but I question that anyone who is on board with this could be defined as a “moderate.” 

right from BLM 

BLM link to defunding police

We know that police don’t keep us safe — and as long as we continue to pump money into our corrupt criminal justice system at the expense of housing, health, and education investments — we will never be truly safe.

That’s why we are calling to #DefundPolice 

That's literally their wording - and BLM = Democrat voting

So yeah, I think defunding the police is literally what it says it is 

I think that it is totally arrogant that anyone believes that mankind can alter "climate change"....in one direction or the other.
It's arrogant to think we cause it and it's arrogant to believe we can stop it.

It's a force that has shaped the earth since it began to cool.
It changed the Sahara rain forest into the Sahara Desert....without man's help.
It's been going on for 5 billion years....a timeline ten miles long....and we've been scientifically monitoring it for the past 1.5 inches....yet, some say we KNOW that something is wrong and we can stop it.

It is unbelievably arrogant.
Think about railing against volcanoes and doing something to stop them from erupting.
It's not a big deal until you start pumping billions of dollars into it and people profit from the idea.

Good luck.

timschochet said:

Actually I don’t think it has to be that creative. It’s a pretty simple fix: we need to throw money at new energy technology. Tons of money, trillions. In the meantime we need to stop trying to restrict the old technologies too much. When the new stuff is economically viable it will replace the old stuff. 

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I consider that a creative solution relative to self-sacrifice.  YMMV.

timschochet said:

Sorry but I question that anyone who is on board with this could be defined as a “moderate.” 

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Well, you don’t have the same friends as me.  

Opie said:

I think that it is totally arrogant that anyone believes that mankind can alter "climate change"....in one direction or the other.
It's arrogant to think we cause it and it's arrogant to believe we can stop it.

It's a force that has shaped the earth since it began to cool.
It changed the Sahara rain forest into the Sahara Desert....without man's help.
It's been going on for 5 billion years....a timeline ten miles long....and we've been scientifically monitoring it for the past 1.5 inches....yet, some say we KNOW that something is wrong and we can stop it.

It is unbelievably arrogant.
Think about railing against volcanoes and doing something to stop them from erupting.
It's not a big deal until you start pumping billions of dollars into it and people profit from the idea.

Good luck.

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Some people oversell climate change by linking it to every microevent. CO2 levels naturally fluctuate, but the rate of change is unprecedented AND extremely unlikely related to natural phenomena. Below is a good overview and a link to explanation of natural fluctuations of CO2, which is clearly not the case now.

The Latinx population in South Florida is in favor of action on climate change. They see the sunny day flooding increasing every year. Seawalls are being built higher to prepare for the future. This is not a winning issue for Republicans. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mashable.com/article/carbon-dioxide-earth-co2.amp

https://www.amnh.org/exhibitions/climate-change/changing-atmosphere/the-ups-and-downs-of-co2

timschochet said:

Yes. 
And a part of me believes that she might be right about this. Perhaps society would be better off if this happened. I’m honestly not sure, and I’m open to the discussion. 
 

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Thats the beauty of states.   Lets have a state like california or new york give it a try.    If it works out we can expand it.   

If not.   There will be a mess to clean up.

Rich Conway said:

Fracking may be one of the, if not the single, worst thing we've ever done to our environment.  You can say Democrats should get better at their messaging around anti-fracking policies, but an argument that we should be pro-fracking because it will help win elections seems counter-productive if the goal is to help the environment.

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I have worked as an engineer on fracking projects. Your statement is misguided, due to how journalists report on issues.  Shallow well fracking is bad for the environment, but that practice has been dropped. Deep well fracking is not bad for the environment.

The problem is the small mom and pop oil companies use cheap casing and fracked wells leak through the cheap casing. The media latches onto articles that a fracked well is leaking contaminants, but the journalist is too dumb to understand the problem had nothing to do with fracking. The problem was a small company trying to cut corners with the well to make as much profit as possible. These small mom and pop drilling companies give everyone in the industry a bad name.

Horizontal fracking was one of the great discoveries of the last 15 years and has reduced carbon dioxide output and pollution by killing the coal power plants.

timschochet said:

1. Immigration. Many Latinos already here agree with the tough Republican stand on immigration. Obviously I don’t, but I have to call it as I see it. Of course, many Latinos are far more liberal on this issue. But there is a clearly a divide and it’s not at all clear how this will trend in the future. 
 

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My brother-in-law(wife's brother) married a woman born/raised in Mexico and she is incredibly conservative. Her whole family has since came to America and they were big trump supporters. One of their biggest issues was related to immigration.