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DYNASTY I own 4 of top 13 picks. 9,10,11,13 WWYD?


Tonycarpenter

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10 Team DYNASTY: 2QB/3WR/2RB/1TE/3FLEX PPR 1.0 for all. Bonus tiers. KR points. Passing TDs 6pts. 26 man roster. 

I have picks #9, #10,  #11, #13  #19 picks overall.  In my mock drafts. All early picks need, prefer, QBs.  QBs go 5 of first 6 picks. Najee Harris likely to go 5.   Picks 7, 8 will try to screw me but will look out for their own needs.  Then I own 4 of the next 5 picks. I can dictate the draft. 

I'd love to leave the draft with Chase and Pitts but that's not realistic w/o a trade. I haven't seen a trade develop yet so just looking to draft from existing spots. Most players I draft will be luxury picks on a loaded team. 

My Team:

  • QB: R WIlson, DWatson, Tua
  • RB: Zeke, Chubb, Akers, JKDobbins, AJDillon, RoJones2, 
  • WR: Hopkins, Justin Jefferson, AJBrown, CGodwin, MPittmanJr, JReagor, Laviska, Parris Campbell, cutting MBoykin. 
  • TE:  Kelce, Goedert, Engram. 

Mock draft: 

  • #1 QB1  Lawrence (This owner sucks. Got Burrows #1 overall lost year)
  • #2 QB2  Lance  (owns #6 pick as well  has Herbert, Fitzmagic other randos)
  • #3 QB3  Fields/Wilson (Only rostered QB is Cousins). 
  • #4 QB4  Wilson/Fields best remaining. 
  • #5 RB1 or QB5.   Najee Harris.  Owner notoriously predictable. COULD take MacJones #5 but unlikely. 
  • #6 QB5.  Owner indicated desire to have Mac Jones as luxury QB snag. Other QB needy
  • #7  WR1/TE1  Ja'Marr Chase  or Kyle Pitts.  
  • #8 RB2 is need or WR1. Should be Etienne but maybe Javonte, Carter, Sermon. (Big NYJ Fan and James Robinson Owner so not likely to get Etienne
  • #9.  TE1:  PITTS, Waddle, Devonta Smith, in that order.
  •  #10.  WR2 Waddle, Devonta, Javonte, Etienne? 
  • #11.  WR3
  • #12.  WR4  He would take Devonta Smith.  Needs a true WR1 on roster. 
  • #13. RB3 That's crazy. I make RB drop.  Eitenne or Sermon.   
  • ....I also have #19 pick.  Early mocks had Sermon falling but I don't think he will. as Commish I'd better schedule the draft ASAP before people figure things out. 

 

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  • #9: Pitts
  • #10 Waddle
  • #11 Devonta Smith
  • -#12 takes WR4 
  • #13 RB3.  Etienne still in play.  Sermon? Carter, Javonte? 

By going WR heavy early. I like the upside of Devonta Smith. I don't need him.   Etienne likely the guy to grab. I would be happy.  But I think by going WRs I push him down and he's still available at #13.  

 

  • If I go: #9 Pitts. 
  • #10 Waddle
  • #11 Etienne RB3
  • #12 takes Devonta Smith
  • #13 RB4. or WR5 WHos' your WR5? Rondale Moore?  Rashod Bateman?

I have embarrassment of riches on my roster. I'm not going to be counting on my #13 pick player to produce. Ideally they're elite upside players that I can pair with a QB as WR or 3down back. OR some scoring advantage matchup nightmare like Pitts who's potential upside is worthwhile. With Godwin was my Flex WR4.  I'm in good shape.  Flex positions are 1TE/WR, 1WR/RB and 1 WR/TE/RB   So I can start up to 6 WRs each week.    Having Reagor, Laviska, Pittman, PCampbell onthe bench. I'd want someone that's a clear starter over them.  

 

This can allow me to trade Hopkins WR1 for a premium if I want. He's still elite and at 29 he' hopefully has some meat on the bones to attract top value. Especially to Murray owner. Who also owns #12 pick. 

 

 

 

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With what your saying and what im seeing, I would suggest taking Javonte, sermon, Etienne and in that order is how I personally rank them. Your drafting for depth and next year when you picking late in the draft amd already have a team built like you do. I dont see pitts making it to especially now with Julio being traded, there is just to much hype behind him to fall to 9 and coupled with how will Jefferson did last year owners are grabbing him early. After you load up on running backs take what ever WR you value the highest.

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Create a combined draft board and put the effort to really trust it.  Then take the highest player available on that board when it is your turn to pick.  Don't force positions out of need.  The key to all rookie drafts is to hit on the pick.  That is more important than getting a specific position because of need.  

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Seems like this is mainly a matter of figuring out your player rankings for the top 19.

With my draft board, I have a clear top 10 so I'd take the last 2 of them at 9 & 10 (sounds like it'll be 2 of Pitts, Etienne, Javonte). Then I have Waddle & Devonta next, so pick your favorite at 11. If you're confident about predicting what #12 will do then you could try to play games to get one of those 5 to fall to 13, but seems pretty risky.

#13 could be a good trade-down spot if those 12 are gone. Or try to get a future 1st. I have Bateman & Elijah Moore as best available there and would take 1 of them if I used the pick.

Rounding out my top 19 are Rondale, Marshall, Toney, Sermon, and Carter. Probably the RBs will be gone by then so I'd get one of the WRs.

Just noticed that your league has return points. That secures Waddle as the play at 11 over Devonta, maybe even creeping into the top 10. I haven't looked closely at which other guys are likely returners - I guess Etienne & Rondale & Toney? Depending on how many points guys get for returns it could change what you do at 13 (maybe take Rondale there?) and increases the downside of trying to game the guy at 12 to let Etienne fall.

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#12 Pick owner would go Devonta Smith currently unless other news supplanted what he needs: WR1 with upside.  He would take my recommendation and that's honestly what I would do at #12.  Top 3 WR in the draft at #12 is good value. 

I reached out to #6 owner.  To see if I could get into that higher pick category.  No response. 

My rankings are:  #1 Lawrence. #2 Lance #3 Wilson or Fields #4 Wilson/Fields. #5 Najee.   #6 Chase,  #7 PItts, #8 Waddle. #9 #10 Etienne?/Javonte tie.

I full expect Mac Jones to go at #6. He's not in my top 10 but wouldn't hesitate to take him at value later as insurance w/ upside. For my WRs I wouldn't count too much on KR points other than it's a bonus. I'm more focus on loading my squad w/ ridiculous talent that can be WR1 any week.  So when they face me they have to go against 4 WR1 3 starters and 1 flex.  

 

COMBINED DRAFT BOARD: Typically Waldman's RSP, Post Draft RSP, and longShortTerm.  Ranking outlook.   He's got Trey Sermon as #1RB I think. IF not Sermon #2 behind Najee. 

I like the idea of going RB, RB RB but they have the shortest Shelf Life. 

None of the players I'm drafting are out of need.  My team is freaking loaded. I'm spoiled. It's an embarrassment of riches. BUT it's hard to continue to find players to improve my starters and depth.  It's easier when my roster sucked and was full of holes. I would grab all of the WW sleepers and just wait.  Then I'd trade the older players and the others I didn't see a future in and hoard draft picks.  Now it's harder. You have to be right on talent. Before they've played. I've missed on some trades but try to land on 60% of my moves/picks/trades etc.  That's 3 of 5 deals. That's usually worked for me.  Do I miss Alshon Jeffery and Cortland Sutton for the 1st rounder I got... Tua?  No.  Do I regret Lockett and DJ Moore, J Gordon for Hopkins? no. Do I regret R Woods and 2nd rounder for KerryonJohnson who got hurt the next week and was essentially cut? Yes but that's they way it goes. 

I consider Talent > than situation.  Talent + opportunity in the right situation is awesome. Pitts has talent.  Arguably elite TE talent regardless if Julio is there or not. Ridley no slouch. What'd Julio do last year?  Ryan future unknown. So QB future murky but Pitts = talent so he's probably one of my first 2 picks. 

I like Najee Harris talent + situation for 2021. I'm not going to get him at #9.  My luxury is that I don't need a starting RB this year.  I could take ETN/JAVONTE in an RBBC and have them be RB of the future in 1-2 seasons most likely. Any production I do get is a bonus.  AND if they're playing well late in the season that can only help me in the playoffs.

Appreciate everyone's feedback.  Cheers

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