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Projections - which analysts? (1 Viewer)

Mindofigor

Footballguy
Which FBG analysts are more accurate for drafting, and what % are you guys using when calculating the projections for 2021?

It looks like there are more analysts to choose from this year.

 
Which FBG analysts are more accurate for drafting, and what % are you guys using when calculating the projections for 2021?

It looks like there are more analysts to choose from this year.
There have been studies done that find an average of several different projections tend to be more accurate than just one petsons projections.

So I would suggest using that.

 
I always lean Bob Henry.  Of course I have other sources but Bob is far and away my “home base” when it comes to projections.
Yeah Bob is great. I also have liked MTs work over the years. DD is missed though. He would be my home base if he were still doing it.

I still think the average is likely better than any one persons projections. We all have our blind spots. Using more eyes helps fix that I think. Of course one guy or another will have a better season along the way. I am talking about big picture though.

 
Yeah Bob is great. I also have liked MTs work over the years. DD is missed though. He would be my home base if he were still doing it.

I still think the average is likely better than any one persons projections. We all have our blind spots. Using more eyes helps fix that I think. Of course one guy or another will have a better season along the way. I am talking about big picture though.
Agreed on the averages, I just like making sure the slider leans Bob’s way in the league dominator. 😊

i also like looking at the differences between the projectors from a positional level and find sometimes I may prefer other rankers specific to a position as opposed to overall.

I am sure they all have certain positions they are more successful in accurately projecting.

 
Agreed on the averages, I just like making sure the slider leans Bob’s way in the league dominator. 😊

i also like looking at the differences between the projectors from a positional level and find sometimes I may prefer other rankers specific to a position as opposed to overall.

I am sure they all have certain positions they are more successful in accurately projecting.
Yeah I agree some guys are better with WR or QB than other positions for example.

You would need to really be paying attention I think to notice this but I agree its real. Same goes for certain teams. I am going to trust Wood on Eagles projections more than the other guys for example.

I think its good to have the variety and an excellent tool that FBG provides as well where you can weight certain projections heavier than others.

It goes without saying that I am going to trust Bob more than the other guys when we are talking about the defensive side of the ball.

 
Good point on Wood and the Eagles.  Same goes for Cecil and the Broncos but, and I love ya Cecil!, but I don’t look to him on RB’s anymore.  😊

 
I always lean Bob Henry.  Of course I have other sources but Bob is far and away my “home base” when it comes to projections.
Have always meant to look more closely into BH. Is he solid across the board or does he specialize? 
I personally use a few. Lead by the WR whisperer, Waldman. Simply the best if you need WR help. No deep secret there. I prefer using one other for all of  the other skill positions and that is Pat Fitzmaurice. Just crushes it with rankings and projections. 
I use mixed bag for rookies but always run home for supper when a push comes to shove. Bloom does such great work with the wealth of information he has on the rooks. 
I’ve been coming here for over 20 years and there is a reason why, I’ve searched around and nobody comes close to offering everything, whether I’m gathering info for my standard scoring redraft league of 25 years or the SF dynasty startup I’m currently drafting in.  

 

 
Have always meant to look more closely into BH. Is he solid across the board or does he specialize? 
I personally use a few. Lead by the WR whisperer, Waldman. Simply the best if you need WR help. No deep secret there. I prefer using one other for all of  the other skill positions and that is Pat Fitzmaurice. Just crushes it with rankings and projections. 
I use mixed bag for rookies but always run home for supper when a push comes to shove. Bloom does such great work with the wealth of information he has on the rooks. 
I’ve been coming here for over 20 years and there is a reason why, I’ve searched around and nobody comes close to offering everything, whether I’m gathering info for my standard scoring redraft league of 25 years or the SF dynasty startup I’m currently drafting in.  

 
I find him solid across the board and feel like any comment I'd have on his positional accuracy/specialization would be anecdotal at best.  I am glad to hear that about Fitzmaurice as I am only now becoming familiar so appreciate the tip.  I like Waldman for QB's especially, ever since he had me onto Russell Wilson back in the day, but appreciate his perspective all around.  I've always appreciated my footballguys subscription and still do.

 
I really like Bloom. Him and Henry are my go-to on this site.  Waldman doesn't do projections but he's sure not afraid to go out on a limb in his rankings. He has many that depart - sometimes wildly - from ADP or consensus. Here are a few I picked out:

Tom Brady as QB1 (Mahomes is QB4)

D'Andre Swift as RB28

Travis Ettiene as RB48

James Robinson as RB18

Davante Adams as WR21 

Mike Evans as WR3 

DK Metcalf as WR18

Kenny Golladay as WR57

Brandon Aiiyuk as WR49

Deebo Samuel as WR74

Will Fuller as WR71

Rondale Moore as WR41

Emmanuel Sanders as WR42

Antonio Brown as WR22

Lavishka Shenault as WR23

Noah Fant as TE39

Jared Cook as TE9

Hayden Hurst as TE11

 
Big Matt Waldman fan myself. Always look to grab a few of his "Gut Check" guys. Never afraid to swing for the fences. He'll miss on a few, but the hits FAR outweigh the misses.

 
I really like Bloom. Him and Henry are my go-to on this site.  Waldman doesn't do projections but he's sure not afraid to go out on a limb in his rankings. He has many that depart - sometimes wildly - from ADP or consensus. Here are a few I picked out:

Tom Brady as QB1 (Mahomes is QB4)

D'Andre Swift as RB28

Travis Ettiene as RB48

James Robinson as RB18

Davante Adams as WR21 

Mike Evans as WR3 

DK Metcalf as WR18

Kenny Golladay as WR57

Brandon Aiiyuk as WR49

Deebo Samuel as WR74

Will Fuller as WR71

Rondale Moore as WR41

Emmanuel Sanders as WR42

Antonio Brown as WR22

Lavishka Shenault as WR23

Noah Fant as TE39

Jared Cook as TE9

Hayden Hurst as TE11
I get that literally any outcome is possible due to injuries and players who surprise. I’m sure Waldman wouldn’t actually suggest you draft Evans over all but 2 WRs and he’s basically just saying don’t take Adams at his ADP. However, those rankings are nuts if you are looking to use rankings to draft from and are trying to hit the most likely outcomes.

 
Am I the only person that doesn’t find projections very interesting? I know for ranking purposes they can help people sort things, determine what outcomes are likely or unlikely but for drafting purposes projections do nothing for me.

 
Am I the only person that doesn’t find projections very interesting? I know for ranking purposes they can help people sort things, determine what outcomes are likely or unlikely but for drafting purposes projections do nothing for me.
Agreed.  I imagine you could almost use last years stats and rearrange the names to your liking.  Even then I would just bucket players by points and choose who I like.

 
Agreed.  I imagine you could almost use last years stats and rearrange the names to your liking.  Even then I would just bucket players by points and choose who I like.
Yeah I am more just looking at do I think the player is good, do I like the offense they are in, how much opportunity do I think they get and tiering by that’s 

 
Am I the only person that doesn’t find projections very interesting? I know for ranking purposes they can help people sort things, determine what outcomes are likely or unlikely but for drafting purposes projections do nothing for me.
Im sure your not the only person.

There are a lot of us here who do find them interesting.

I can rank and tier the players how I would draft draft them but if I look at projections for the players that changes things. Sometimes those projections might change the order I would draft and tier the players but I am never willing to just draft based on projections.

There is a lot more that goes into that decision than just the numbers that I know may not be that close to the actual outcome.

Not all projections are done the same way either. The easy way to do them is to use a formula that projects the players based on last years stats. The way I do it uses a 3 year average of those players stats when available.

I have never tried to compare these two methods as far as which is more accurate but I feel more comfortable about a projection for a player that is based on more than one season of their performance in the NFL.

 
This just doesn’t make sense unless you’re predicting he misses significant time. If not he’s saying every starting TE and seven backup TEs will all finish ahead of Fant.
Yeah I am shocked at how low Waldman is on Fant.  Part of it seems to be that he is high on Albert O but that ranking just seems oddly out there.  I mean 39?  I get that Sutton is back but I can’t see him falling off to that extent.

 
I wonder why he feels this way?  It seems like Zeke should be primed for a great season considering the OL/TEs are healthy and assuming Dak is good to go.
Perhaps he thinks Zeke "got paid" and decided to go through the motions. He certainly wouldn't be the first player to do that. 

 
papacapps said:
I wonder why he feels this way?  It seems like Zeke should be primed for a great season considering the OL/TEs are healthy and assuming Dak is good to go.
Likely because Elliott wasn't very good last year, his YPC has decreased 3 years in a row and he was largely outplayed by Pollard, who could steal carries again this year (capping Elliott at 250 carries as opposed to the 300 he used to get), possibly at a higher rate. There's a strong counter argument to be made for Elliott, as you outline (healthy offensive line, Dak is back, and he's looking great in camp).  It's really a question of whether you see last year as indicative of a slow slide downhill (as Henry probably does) or if you want to write off last year and think he'll get back on track.

 
Yeah I am shocked at how low Waldman is on Fant.  Part of it seems to be that he is high on Albert O but that ranking just seems oddly out there.  I mean 39?  I get that Sutton is back but I can’t see him falling off to that extent.
I cant speak for Matt. If you guys want to know why he is so down on Fant you should ask him.

I know I have heard Matt talk about the fact that he hates rankings before and we dont usually do things that we hate very well.

 
I have a decent perspective as to why as I am a big fan but didn't feel it appropriate to share here as it is from his perspective shared in his new ranking and projections product.   He has some Fant commentary on this site, I think in the Over-rated TE's article where he refers to some fundamental issues he still sees in Fant's game, and that Albert O may have the chance to emerge if he has the opportunity. 

I just don't happen to agree with him on this one.  And that's cool.

He also said something like he will probably move him up later in summer - so not sure if he always uses this sort of "early thoughts" approach but that is a good question I may ask him.

 
I would like to add that rankings are always wrong and I likely agree with Matt as far as hating rankings or a lot of the reasons why he may not like them.

Also I do think one can do something they hate well, just not as well as something they love.

 

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