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What players would you prefer to NOT HAVE on your FF Team in 2021? (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
There are some guys I just simply will not draft them and a very wise man around here once said you can't have the perfect draft with this mindset. Hogwash I say. 

QB-Several but Darnold is one I want nothing to do with. Goff might be high on the list as well. 

RB-James Connor, just never pans out. 

WR-Will Fuller, teases but difficult to sustain as a path to your title. 

TE-Tim Tebow of course 

Def/ST-Houston Texans 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
There are some guys I just simply will not draft them and a very wise man around here once said you can't have the perfect draft with this mindset. Hogwash I say. 
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Who are you referring to?

I miss that guy who used to talk about eliminating the suck, which is what I think you are trying to do here.

I don't have anyone on my do not draft list. Hell I will even take Packer players if I have to, I just usually don't have to because someone else will do it before I would or would pay a higher price than I would, which means if I have the player, I wont have them for long.

I am afraid to look at what ADP says right now. Every time I have done that lately I come away from it feeling like the data is too inaccurate to trust.

I have seen Cam Akers being ranked very high and I already stated in his thread that I want no parts of him at his current price and I prefer RB who are going after him such as Swift and Dobbins. so it seems very unlikely I end up with him on any of my teams.

For last year I didn't worry about where people were taking CEH. I like CEH but not at that price. Maybe I can get him this year.

 
Wasn’t it Dodd’s who had the Eliminate the Suck concept?  I still have this as a factor on my win-now teams.

 
At current ADP for redraft

JuJu

All cowboys receivers not named CeeDee

All Cardinals players

All Texans players

 
tangfoot said:
I get it. Why TF would anyone want a player who has never had less than 1000 yards, averages about 120 targets per season, and 8.7 TDs. 

No thank you!
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Meh, drop off in production.  Dynasty League.  I'll send you an invite and you can hope his production doesn't bottom out with the oldest QB to ever play.  🙂

 
BobbyLayne said:
I would not be upset if zero players fm New England or da NYJ were on my team. I do not compile DND list; everyone has value at some point.
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There are certain players that I don’t want, but at a certain point in the draft, I will feel like I have to take them. I think that is what this thread is about.  

 
Sam Quentin said:
There are certain players that I don’t want, but at a certain point in the draft, I will feel like I have to take them. I think that is what this thread is about.  
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Cooks is a good example this year. Not really a guy I want but if it’s the 11th round & for my WR5, why the heck not.

 
Sam Quentin said:
There are certain players that I don’t want, but at a certain point in the draft, I will feel like I have to take them. I think that is what this thread is about.  
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I agree.  Most it's not so much DND but more like they are going to have to fall 3 or more rounds vrs their ADP in re-draft.

 
I absolutely have several DND players on my list. Have done it that way for years and am not stopping now. Avoiding landmines is one of the most crucial FF success factors. A lot of luck involved but for every one player that I miss out on because they're on my DND list, there are another 10 or so that I am very glad I skipped. 

Sometimes I do it simply because I don't think the player can/will produce at a FF relevant level and the decision is devoid of cost considerations. Other times cost is the only factor. 

I think Gaskin and Mike Davis can be productive but at their cost they are DND for me. I would truly not draft either before the 10th in redraft and that will never happen. 

Melvin Gordon, James Conner, David Johnson (unless I go very zero RB), Robby Anderson, Tyler Lockett. 

 
I generally have a bunch of people on a DND list, too. I just won't do it and don't mind if I miss. It's the same as barack said. Some guys I just don't even want clogging up roster space and some other guys are too costly to ever be where I'd feel comfortable taking them.

For every guy on your roster that you think will clog it up, there's a guy with upside that you're passing on and somebody else is getting.

 
-OZ- said:
:shrug: I get it, but he's my WR9 in a dynasty. I just dropped Desean Jackson for him. Most likely I'll drop him for a filler IDP when he gets injured.
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Cool. If I owned him I’d trade him to you for a ham sandwich and then use the empty roster spot to roster a backup kicker ;)  

 
battlestar said:
Wasn’t it Dodd’s who had the Eliminate the Suck concept?  I still have this as a factor on my win-now teams.
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Yeah. 

I didn't always agree with everything DD would say in these articles, but I do miss them.

I think its a great concept, to just go through a snake draft round by round using ADP and identify the players who you think are being over drafted each round.

 
One of my (many) flaws is that I have an inherent bias against Players that get lucked into, especially ones with low-to-no-NFL-draft-capital.

The primary 2020 example is James Robinson. Next to no one saw him coming, next to no one drafted him, almost everyone acquired him through waivers. Although Blind Bidding is becoming more prevalent, many Leagues still base their WW around a welfare program. He was a lucky break, and I dislike luck playing a role in FF. I try to play in Leagues that minimize it. It's kind of a fools errand on my part, I know this, because luck weasels it's way into FF every year, despite efforts to minimize it. I have nothing against JR, personally, there are no reports about character flaws or anything off-putting of that nature...and based on how I generally feel about things unrelated to him, I support the idea of an underdog succeeding against almost insurmountable statistical odds...

...but I see absolutely nothing special about him, except that 2020 was right place/right time, and the Jacksonville landscape couldn't be more different than the environment he unexpectedly achieved so much in last year.

I think he's a flash in the pan, a one-year wonder, and he's going to be disappointing folks who think he's going to amount to much of anything in 2021 and beyond...and I fully realize I could be wrong about that...but my bias flaw, in part, will prevent me from drafting him.

I'm going to spend my research time trying to luck into the next James Robinson, rather than chasing the one most folks missed out on, and lucked into, last year. That's just me, and on me, if I'm wrong.

 
BobbyLayne said:
I would not be upset if zero players fm New England or da NYJ were on my team. I do not compile DND list; everyone has value at some point.
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Dreamer said:
I'll take anyone good if they drop far enough.
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As long as you avoid getting married to the value.  It can be really hard to cut a guy that was "so cheap" and they frequently become roster cloggers.  Can you really move on from a guy like DJ Chark that you might have a DND grade on but couldn't resist "at that price with that upside once Lawrence starts grooving"?  Or is that guy going to be an anchor all year for you?  That's my biggest temptation and that's why I do fully omit some players from my rankings altogether.  Joe Mixon is another kryponite necklace for me. 

 
I don't have anyone on my do not draft list. Hell I will even take Packer players if I have to, I just usually don't have to because someone else will do it before I would or would pay a higher price than I would, which means if I have the player, I wont have them for long.
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In doing so, you’re sort of making a DND list by default.

I do the same. “I’d never take this player who’s ADP is 2.03 until the 3rd. That’s how I value him.”

Well since thats never gonna happen, you’ve effectively taken him out of your rankings. 

I’ve had redraft drafts when a player like that actually fell to me “where I’d take him” and regretted the pick all year. After that I revisited my DND policy. 

I also tend to downgrade teams, where if I have a choice between 2 guys, I take the one I think will be in a better offense, or on a better team for the position (e.g. teams with good defenses tend to be better for RB, teams with bad defenses tend to be better for WR).

As has been said, every player has a value, but if I can avoid drafting some, I will. Patriots RBs come to mind. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
In doing so, you’re sort of making a DND list by default.

I do the same. “I’d never take this player who’s ADP is 2.03 until the 3rd. That’s how I value him.

Well since thats never gonna happen, you’ve effectively taken him out of your rankings. 

I’ve had redraft drafts when a player like that actually fell to me “where I’d take him” and regretted the pick all year. After that I revisited my DND policy. 

I also tend to downgrade teams, where if I have a choice between 2 guys, I take the one I think will be in a better offense, or on a better team for the position (e.g. teams with good defenses tend to be better for RB, teams with bad defenses tend to be better for WR).

As has been said, every player has a value, but if I can avoid drafting some, I will. Patriots RBs come to mind. 
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I guess you could say its a default DND list.

But in my experience when a player I am lower on than ADP says they will go actually falls to me and I pick that player, it tends to work out pretty well for me. I guess your experience is different.

I have had some teams that have won a lot of games with players I am not particularly fond of.

 
I have had some teams that have won a lot of games with players I am not particularly fond of.
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I wish I had that luck. I can think of two specific times it hurt me in recent memory. Miles Sanders absolutely killed me last year, and AJ Green in 2016 when he fell to the late 2nd. I was down on him as a 1st round pick but I thought I got a bargain. He had something like 900/4 so not completely terrible, but game to game was brutal. He had like 3 games where he put up monster numbers & then a whole lot of 3-4 point stinkers. 

And both times I told myself, “man, they shouldn’t have fallen this far!”

But I think we’re in agreement - we have a “DND by default” list where we just disagree with ADP on some players. It’s a reasonable position, and helps with group-think.

the trick is assessing the players who’s ADP is unreasonably depressed. Carter on the Jets, for example. RoJo might be another guy who’s falling further than he should due to Fournette’s finish last year.  And Mike Evans seems to get a lot of hate in FF circles. He was huge last year playing on one hammy. If he gives me last years production as a floor he’s gonna be a bargain in redraft. 

 
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rockaction said:
I generally have a bunch of people on a DND list, too. I just won't do it and don't mind if I miss. It's the same as barack said. Some guys I just don't even want clogging up roster space and some other guys are too costly to ever be where I'd feel comfortable taking them.

For every guy on your roster that you think will clog it up, there's a guy with upside that you're passing on and somebody else is getting.
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Darnold in a superflex?

 
redraft....just guys I will probably always pass on and move to the next guy on my list...mostly just gut calls, and may see me missing out on something...

Hurts-Tua

Swift-Akers-Montgomery-Sanders-Gaskin-Conner-David Johnson-Bills RB's

Allen-Arob-Lockett-DJ Moore-Higgins-PIT WR's (they have 3 like in the top 30, but Ben is like QB20?????)--Robby Anderson-Cooks-Fuller-Reagor-DET WR's

 
nittanylion said:
One of my (many) flaws is that I have an inherent bias against Players that get lucked into, especially ones with low-to-no-NFL-draft-capital.

The primary 2020 example is James Robinson. Next to no one saw him coming, next to no one drafted him, almost everyone acquired him through waivers. Although Blind Bidding is becoming more prevalent, many Leagues still base their WW around a welfare program. He was a lucky break, and I dislike luck playing a role in FF. I try to play in Leagues that minimize it. It's kind of a fools errand on my part, I know this, because luck weasels it's way into FF every year, despite efforts to minimize it. I have nothing against JR, personally, there are no reports about character flaws or anything off-putting of that nature...and based on how I generally feel about things unrelated to him, I support the idea of an underdog succeeding against almost insurmountable statistical odds...

...but I see absolutely nothing special about him, except that 2020 was right place/right time, and the Jacksonville landscape couldn't be more different than the environment he unexpectedly achieved so much in last year.

I think he's a flash in the pan, a one-year wonder, and he's going to be disappointing folks who think he's going to amount to much of anything in 2021 and beyond...and I fully realize I could be wrong about that...but my bias flaw, in part, will prevent me from drafting him.

I'm going to spend my research time trying to luck into the next James Robinson, rather than chasing the one most folks missed out on, and lucked into, last year. That's just me, and on me, if I'm wrong.
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Could not disagree more here.  I will say that I was one of the people that drafted James Robinson last year.  I did a lot of research on him before the draft.  He is one of those RB's that defenders underestimate his speed, his quickness and bursts into open space abilities are elite, he has great vision, as well as very good pass catching skills.  There is a reason that where he has played in his career that he produces, and I think with having a better QB, and a better overall offense around him now that he can still be very very productive.  I know they drafted Travis Etienne, but one that they intend to use as more of a 1-2 punch and use Etienne as a "Slash" type player.  I still think Robinson will be a very viable #2 RB, and he will only get better this year at being in the right place at the right time and it is more of a pay close attention to the situation.  I would 100% try to draft him again if it is clear that he will be the starter or even get 60% of the carries.  

I agree that there is definitely the potential for a guy out there this year that will be this year's "James Robinson" or "Jordan Howard" from a few years ago.  I think it will be easier as we get closer to camp, and there are injuries or different situations that play out.  Even with the James Robinson situation that is one to keep a close eye on, but the dude has proved that he is worthy of getting the ball as he did well on a terrible Jacksonsville team last year.  I'd love to see what he can do with an improved team.  

As for players I am staying away from.  I play in auction leagues only, and the players I am staying away from are players that cost way too much money or are too expensive for the respective value.  I have been burned too many times over the past few years by injuries, and honestly it has taken away a lot of enjoyment for me in fantasy.  It's been like 5 years in a row now, and I know you can't predict injuries but you can make more balanced rosters in Auction drafts, which is the mistake I made last year specifically.  

 
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nittanylion said:
One of my (many) flaws is that I have an inherent bias against Players that get lucked into, especially ones with low-to-no-NFL-draft-capital.

The primary 2020 example is James Robinson. Next to no one saw him coming, next to no one drafted him, almost everyone acquired him through waivers. Although Blind Bidding is becoming more prevalent, many Leagues still base their WW around a welfare program. He was a lucky break, and I dislike luck playing a role in FF. I try to play in Leagues that minimize it. It's kind of a fools errand on my part, I know this, because luck weasels it's way into FF every year, despite efforts to minimize it. I have nothing against JR, personally, there are no reports about character flaws or anything off-putting of that nature...and based on how I generally feel about things unrelated to him, I support the idea of an underdog succeeding against almost insurmountable statistical odds...

...but I see absolutely nothing special about him, except that 2020 was right place/right time, and the Jacksonville landscape couldn't be more different than the environment he unexpectedly achieved so much in last year.

I think he's a flash in the pan, a one-year wonder, and he's going to be disappointing folks who think he's going to amount to much of anything in 2021 and beyond...and I fully realize I could be wrong about that...but my bias flaw, in part, will prevent me from drafting him.

I'm going to spend my research time trying to luck into the next James Robinson, rather than chasing the one most folks missed out on, and lucked into, last year. That's just me, and on me, if I'm wrong.
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Luck will always be a factor in FF & life, man...

 
nittanylion said:
One of my (many) flaws is that I have an inherent bias against Players that get lucked into, especially ones with low-to-no-NFL-draft-capital.

The primary 2020 example is James Robinson. Next to no one saw him coming, next to no one drafted him, almost everyone acquired him through waivers. Although Blind Bidding is becoming more prevalent, many Leagues still base their WW around a welfare program. He was a lucky break, and I dislike luck playing a role in FF. I try to play in Leagues that minimize it. It's kind of a fools errand on my part, I know this, because luck weasels it's way into FF every year, despite efforts to minimize it. I have nothing against JR, personally, there are no reports about character flaws or anything off-putting of that nature...and based on how I generally feel about things unrelated to him, I support the idea of an underdog succeeding against almost insurmountable statistical odds...

...but I see absolutely nothing special about him, except that 2020 was right place/right time, and the Jacksonville landscape couldn't be more different than the environment he unexpectedly achieved so much in last year.

I think he's a flash in the pan, a one-year wonder, and he's going to be disappointing folks who think he's going to amount to much of anything in 2021 and beyond...and I fully realize I could be wrong about that...but my bias flaw, in part, will prevent me from drafting him.

I'm going to spend my research time trying to luck into the next James Robinson, rather than chasing the one most folks missed out on, and lucked into, last year. That's just me, and on me, if I'm wrong.
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I'm a bit fuzzy on what the bias is here and specifically how you'll recognize when you're being influenced by it again.

Robinson was essentially a product of a dramatic (and late) change to his situation (Fournette's release). The lack of attention he received from the fantasy community prior to Fournette's release was probably due to Fournette. Even after Fournette was released, the fantasy community was slow to "pay attention" to Robinson (the Jags will trade for someone else, they'll bring someone in etc.). 

Having "low to no draft capital" is an attribute you can identify in a player and have a bias towards but "being lucked into" isn't. I think trying to research the next Robinson is a bit like trying to research the next injury or blockbuster trade.

 
TS Garp said:
Can you elaborate? 40/562/3 and 62/673/3 are a pretty strong first two years for a TE. Hockenson put up 67/723/6 last year with one extra game and a vastly superior QB. 
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Maybe because I traded for him after week 2 and he was constantly dinged up and didnt put up a single double digit game the rest of the year until it was too late.

 
habsfan said:
I'm a bit fuzzy on what the bias is here and specifically how you'll recognize when you're being influenced by it again.

Robinson was essentially a product of a dramatic (and late) change to his situation (Fournette's release). The lack of attention he received from the fantasy community prior to Fournette's release was probably due to Fournette. Even after Fournette was released, the fantasy community was slow to "pay attention" to Robinson (the Jags will trade for someone else, they'll bring someone in etc.). 

Having "low to no draft capital" is an attribute you can identify in a player and have a bias towards but "being lucked into" isn't. I think trying to research the next Robinson is a bit like trying to research the next injury or blockbuster trade.
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There is no "next" James Robinson. The team had a running back that the front office didn't like, didn't want, and were eager to get rid of (Fournette). Then one of their backups sat out the season with COVID-related issues (Armstead), and the other back wasn't very good at all and was injured (Ozigbo).

That said, what nittanylion, I think, is trying to say, is that he's not investing in Robinson this year. Robinson has no draft capital compared to Etienne, and isn't very special, therefore, nittany might think that this year's investment in Robinson is a bad one.

No draft capital + not a special talent = no investment in 2021

That's what I take him to be saying. nittany, feel free to correct me.

 
DeaLerZ said:
Could not disagree more here.  I will say that I was one of the people that drafted James Robinson last year.  I did a lot of research on him before the draft.
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Could not agree more. I drafted the hell out of James Robinson last year and it had zilch to do with luck..  Also people got the truth twisted. Robinson did not just fall into the job because of an opening. They created the opening(cutting Fournette) because of how good Robinson looked to them.

 
rockaction said:
There is no "next" James Robinson. The team had a running back that the front office didn't like, didn't want, and were eager to get rid of (Fournette). Then one of their backups sat out the season with COVID-related issues (Armstead), and the other back wasn't very good at all and was injured (Ozigbo).

That said, what nittanylion, I think, is trying to say, is that he's not investing in Robinson this year. Robinson has no draft capital compared to Etienne, and isn't very special, therefore, nittany might think that this year's investment in Robinson is a bad one.

No draft capital + not a special talent = no investment in 2021

That's what I take him to be saying. nittany, feel free to correct me.
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I don't have any issue with someone avoiding Robinson this year. It was more the notion there was some sort of "blind spot" involved that interested me.

 
menobrown said:
Could not agree more. I drafted the hell out of James Robinson last year and it had zilch to do with luck..  Also people got the truth twisted. Robinson did not just fall into the job because of an opening. They created the opening(cutting Fournette) because of how good Robinson looked to them.
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I think the point is you and maybe a few others were the unicorns then when it comes to Robinson last year.....it feels like he probably went undrafted in most leagues....I don't have the stats to back that up other than just personal draft experience.....he went undrafted in most/all of mine....and became "lucky" so to speak for the first owner that had a shot at him on the waiver wire or blind bidding or whatever....

 
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rockaction said:
There is no "next" James Robinson. The team had a running back that the front office didn't like, didn't want, and were eager to get rid of (Fournette). Then one of their backups sat out the season with COVID-related issues (Armstead), and the other back wasn't very good at all and was injured (Ozigbo).

That said, what nittanylion, I think, is trying to say, is that he's not investing in Robinson this year. Robinson has no draft capital compared to Etienne, and isn't very special, therefore, nittany might think that this year's investment in Robinson is a bad one.

No draft capital + not a special talent = no investment in 2021

That's what I take him to be saying. nittany, feel free to correct me.
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Yeah didn't Robinson set some records or something last season.

There is a guy who is overlooked by the majority of the FF community who ends up performing well almost every year, but not as well as Robinson did last season.

I took Nittanylions post to be mostly sour grapes and I think he should try to change his attitude about this. It will make him a better FF manager if he does and he will likely sleep a bit better at night as well.

 
I totally agree, by the way, that Mahomes is going way too early for my personal preference because you can get comparable (well, Mahomes is not comparable, but that's in real football) QBs later in the draft. It'll depend on the QB run within your draft, it seems, which means you hope you catch the wave earlier rather than later...

 
I don't really have my list ready yet, but when I do I will post it here and you should all run out and draft those players. Whenever I get too doctrinaire about a player, that's when it comes back to bite me in the a##. I still remember how the first few years I played fantasy, I always seemed to end up with one of the Carolina RBs, and they always got injured. So one year, I officially declared (to myself) that I was out on them ... and then D-Will and Stewart both had 1K-yard seasons.  :wall:

I'm sure there have been many times when my instincts were more accurate (it is generally a good strategy to avoid players on awful teams) but I think maintaining a level of flexibility in your thinking is important

 
I hope the other owners in my 2qb fantasy league are as negative on Darnold as some of the posters in here.  Darnold was put in a laughably bad situation every season with the Jets.  While I admit that he didn’t make chicken soup out of chicken poop—I don’t think there are many qb’s on the planet that could have thrived with what he had to work with.  However—in Carolina—he does have one of the guys who he did have good chemistry with in Robby Anderson. He also has DJ Moore—who is also very sold. More than anything—what qb wouldn’t like having c-Mac in the backfield?   If Darnold can be drafted very late or for very cheap in a 2qb redraft league—I’m all for taking a flier on him 

 
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