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Players that you would reach for in 2021 (1 Viewer)

Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
Could be dynasty or redraft (please specify)  Certain players you are willing to draft ahead of their ADP.  Guys that you just can't wait on and hope are still there in later rounds.

 
One thing that has helped me a lot in the last few seasons is I stopped reaching. I am far more independent and trusting of my tier rankings than say 5-6 years ago. I think in general, we overrate how good we are at identifying specific players. Even within Tiers I try to find similar players. Somebody reached for Swift? I’m on board with CEH with less competition. Terry McLaurin and Michael Thomas off the board at the turn? I still believe in Cee Dee Lamb and Keenan Allen. “Next 3” TEs (Andrews, Hock & Pitts) are gone. I don’t think it’s a ginormous drop to Goedert or Fant.

 Although I do find value in projections, I am not married to a ranking list. That’s why I have Tier lists. I don’t want to put myself on tilt just because I missed that one guy I needed. I can’t even count how many times I left a draft pissed bc I missed players W and X, had to “settle” on Y and Z - and actually ended up better for it at year end.

Range of outcomes will serve you better than binary thinking.

 
MFL shows his ADP as the #4 QB.  I don't see reaching more than that. But maybe higher than the 29th overall.
I haven't seen him go that high. I typically see a tier of Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Murray, and Dak, and then a pause before a mini-tier of Wilson and Herbert and then a pause again before you get into Hurts, Burrow, Brady, Stafford, etc.

 
Probably Lawrence (8 keeper league - just started Superflex). He’s going to have his rookie struggles but I expect he’ll put up some numbers with good surrounding offensive talent and a rebuilding defense.

 
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One thing that has helped me a lot in the last few seasons is I stopped reaching. I am far more independent and trusting of my tier rankings than say 5-6 years ago. I think in general, we overrate how good we are at identifying specific players. Even within Tiers I try to find similar players. Somebody reached for Swift? I’m on board with CEH with less competition. Terry McLaurin and Michael Thomas off the board at the turn? I still believe in Cee Dee Lamb and Keenan Allen. “Next 3” TEs (Andrews, Hock & Pitts) are gone. I don’t think it’s a ginormous drop to Goedert or Fant.

 Although I do find value in projections, I am not married to a ranking list. That’s why I have Tier lists. I don’t want to put myself on tilt just because I missed that one guy I needed. I can’t even count how many times I left a draft pissed bc I missed players W and X, had to “settle” on Y and Z - and actually ended up better for it at year end.

Range of outcomes will serve you better than binary thinking.
I hear ya, and this is a great post you made, but the caveat is when you are looking at unique players and/or the end of the major tiers. Those situations can/do require a 'go getta' mentality. I try to analyze ADPs maximally heading into drafts/auctions each year and will gladly reach a round - even two - as necessary, for said moments.

 
^^^Auction strategy creates an elevated dynamic too... E.g. Depending on the year, sometimes I see value in the top rounds of ADPs, and I reach/overpay for several players in that region. Other years (like this one) I see tons of value in the later rounds, so I try to grab one of my fav's from ADP rds 1-2, then bid up on value names from the later ADP rounds.

Whom, you ask? Tell ya later. :)  ... Hint: WR board is DEEP this year.

 
I haven't seen him go that high. I typically see a tier of Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Murray, and Dak, and then a pause before a mini-tier of Wilson and Herbert and then a pause again before you get into Hurts, Burrow, Brady, Stafford, etc.
MFL might be off. Wilson is listed as QB 20 🤔 

I had something selected wrong 👜

 
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I hear ya, and this is a great post you made, but the caveat is when you are looking at unique players and/or the end of the major tiers. Those situations can/do require a 'go getta' mentality. I try to analyze ADPs maximally heading into drafts/auctions each year and will gladly reach a round - even two - as necessary, for said moments.
i Ceeeeee wut u did there... 😂  

As far as the thread goes..I'll reach for Waller.  Gimme those targets!

 
MFL might be off. Wilson is listed as QB 20 🤔
Is that Zach?

One thing that has helped me a lot in the last few seasons is I stopped reaching. I am far more independent and trusting of my tier rankings than say 5-6 years ago. I think in general, we overrate how good we are at identifying specific players. Even within Tiers I try to find similar players. Somebody reached for Swift? I’m on board with CEH with less competition. Terry McLaurin and Michael Thomas off the board at the turn? I still believe in Cee Dee Lamb and Keenan Allen. “Next 3” TEs (Andrews, Hock & Pitts) are gone. I don’t think it’s a ginormous drop to Goedert or Fant.

 Although I do find value in projections, I am not married to a ranking list. That’s why I have Tier lists. I don’t want to put myself on tilt just because I missed that one guy I needed. I can’t even count how many times I left a draft pissed bc I missed players W and X, had to “settle” on Y and Z - and actually ended up better for it at year end.

Range of outcomes will serve you better than binary thinking.
I tend to do a similar thing, and will sometimes go a step further and purposely pass on guys that I have other later ADP guys in their tier, with the thinking that I can get a similar player later, if if I do in a vacuum prefer the player available now. Based on current ADP, I see that happening with a guy like Thielen for me, where I might pass on a guy I like such as Mike Evans, thinking I can get Thielen 2 rounds later. 

Some of that may be identifying not only what players you have ranked higher than others, but what players you have ranked in different tiers. For example, you mentioned the "next 3" TE tier, and I personally have Andrews in the Waller/Kittle tier, therefore I'm probably more likely to pass on Waller/Kittle and take Andrews later, but also may pull the trigger on Andrews before it gets to guys like Hock and Pitts etc.

I do think that thinking in these terms still leads you to specific players. I mentioned them in the "avoid the suck" thread, but am the moment, I think there is a great chance I'll end up with Thielen, Golladay, Mostert, and Fuller because I have them ranked a ton higher than most, so in a way, I think I am targeting those players. That is more a mid/late round strategy though. You can't really target guys early, unless its an auction league, or its an opinion that is universally your own, such as taking something like Ridley/Gibson in round 1/2 which is likely foolish, even if it does end up being better than what some other people end up with.

 
Dynasty draft is over, but looking At this from a redraft perspective it’s difficult to say.

I have players I like & ADP is a thing. The whole concept of a “reach” is a bit nebulous. In the moment, in the context of my draft position, I know if I don’t take the guy I like the most, he’s not gonn make it back to me. Especially true at the turns. If I’m picking 1.01 or 1.12, it’s an extremely high # of players off the board before it makes it back. So is anyone I take at 3.01 a reach knowing how many players get taken between then & my 4.12 pick? 

Picking 5-6-7-8 theoretically every pick could be considered a reach, but if ADP tells me I won’t be able to get my guy in the next round, I must pick him. 

I guess if it’s a player I’d be willing to reach for knowing that he *will* make it back to me, that’s a reach. But I’m not sure why I’d do that if I’m sure they’ll  make it back. 

Really interesting question, but I just can’t answer it. 

 
hmm a lot of you seem bogged down by the definition of reach here.

What I think of as a reach is when you will take a player a round or more before their ADP because you want to ensure that you get that player.

One of those players for me this year is Travis Etienne.

 
I like a lot of these, especially the Jags players mentioned. Should be a lot of garbage time to rack up yards and maybe more.

 
hmm a lot of you seem bogged down by the definition of reach here.

What I think of as a reach is when you will take a player a round or more before their ADP because you want to ensure that you get that player.

One of those players for me this year is Travis Etienne.
 Here’s a good question for discussion:

You’re drafting on the ends. You know the guy you want is not gonna be there in 21-23 picks, or you strongly suspect they won’t. Who is worth taking two rounds early? Why? 

 
 Here’s a good question for discussion:

You’re drafting on the ends. You know the guy you want is not gonna be there in 21-23 picks, or you strongly suspect they won’t. Who is worth taking two rounds early? Why? 
Its a good question and not easy to answer. Every draft is different. Scoring system and projections could have me wanting certain players more in some leagues than others, then you have to read the room too, if you know the competition well enough to do so.

I went back and I looked at the ADP again and the Eliminating the suck list. I have Ceedee Lamb as a player I think will outperform where he is being drafted. So in a scenario as you describe I might take him in round 3. Right now he is going mid early round 4 or pick 41.

Chase and ETN are going in round 5 and I might take them round 4 to make sure. 

Its going to be tricky to get all 3 of these guys and so that would be a reason to reach on at least one of them in trying to do that.

 
hmm a lot of you seem bogged down by the definition of reach here.

What I think of as a reach is when you will take a player a round or more before their ADP because you want to ensure that you get that player.

One of those players for me this year is Travis Etienne.
Off the top, I don't know what his ADP is or what you expect from him, but THIS ARTICLE discusses some potential usage for him this year. Unfortunately, they don't give a total projection and what they list is a bit piecemeal. More than 115 carries. 4 TD receptions. 4th most receiving yards on the time (compared to D'Andre Swift with 367 receiving yards in Detroit).

I looked at MFL's ADP report for PPR leagues. Etienne is listed at RB14 / 30th overall. All I can say is good luck if you want to reach a round early for him. Personally, I don't think he will hit RB14 to begin with, as Robinson seems likely to remain the primary running RB. Robinson, BTW, has an ADP of RB42 / 163rd overall. I would have a lot more interest in him at that price than Etienne at his. But we all like particular players more than others.

 
Off the top, I don't know what his ADP is or what you expect from him, but THIS ARTICLE discusses some potential usage for him this year. Unfortunately, they don't give a total projection and what they list is a bit piecemeal. More than 115 carries. 4 TD receptions. 4th most receiving yards on the time (compared to D'Andre Swift with 367 receiving yards in Detroit).

I looked at MFL's ADP report for PPR leagues. Etienne is listed at RB14 / 30th overall. All I can say is good luck if you want to reach a round early for him. Personally, I don't think he will hit RB14 to begin with, as Robinson seems likely to remain the primary running RB. Robinson, BTW, has an ADP of RB42 / 163rd overall. I would have a lot more interest in him at that price than Etienne at his. But we all like particular players more than others.
The ADP that I looked at has ETN going at pick 56 ymmv.

If his ADP is 30 then no I am not going to take him higher than that. That is likely about as high as I would go for him.

 
hmm a lot of you seem bogged down by the definition of reach here.

What I think of as a reach is when you will take a player a round or more before their ADP because you want to ensure that you get that player.

One of those players for me this year is Travis Etienne.
I’m not bogged down by it - I get it. But if my rankings are good & I understand every player’s ADP (of the players I want) I shouldn’t have to reach. 

Would I take a guy like Etienne higher than his ADP? No I would not. Because I’m going to avoid the Jags in case they’re a raging dumpster fire, and because Robinson is there too. 

Would I take most of the guys on my list of players I like “a round” higher than their ADP? Yes, because my redraft is a snake & you pretty much have to do that. 

But I generally won’t take a player more than a round early because chances are I’m passing on a player I could also have to do so. Why take a player 2 rounds before his ADP instead of taking a player now & then grabbing that guy the next round? 

I just don’t understand why people do that. 

I get overpaying for a player you like in trade.

I understand bidding more for a guy you like at auction. 

I have a hard time getting why anyone would pick a player more than a round early, except as loosely defined by one’s draft position. (e.g. picking top 3 / bottom 3). If you’re picking at 3.12/4.01 & you know a player with a 5.09 ADP won’t be there, then sure - you’re “reaching” for them more than a round early. I get that. I still don’t see it as a reach though. If you’re picking 4.01 and you grab a dude with a 6th round ADP, I just think you’re shorting yourself the value of the players in the 4/5 rounds. Like trading down without getting an extra pick. Just seems sacrificial & a little bit myopic. 

But that’s my preference. I won’t tell you how to draft. 

 
Here is a typical draft day scenario. The top 6-7 tight ends are gone. Or let’s say enough for a 4 point passing TD league, 9 QBs gone and it’s 20 pics till it comes back to you. Do you reach for a QB so you don’t have to stream? And same question with the tight ends.

I find it super easy to stream quarterbacks in a one QB league. Our guys typically roster 18 to 20 QBs, 12 teams. Every year - every. single. year. - quarterbacks emerge. These days I find it tough to stream tight ends and you’re almost always bottom three.

 
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 Here’s a good question for discussion:

You’re drafting on the ends. You know the guy you want is not gonna be there in 21-23 picks, or you strongly suspect they won’t. Who is worth taking two rounds early? Why? 
A lot of that depends on 1. your team needs at the time, and 2. how the draft has unfolded to that point. 

In that context, almost any player I want at a position I perceive has a greater drop-off from one tier to the next is worth picking there. 

I just don’t really see that as a reach though unless the player’s ADP indicates that they should make it back to me anyway. 

I could see doing that if a run at a certain position happened - for example, 5 straight WRs right before your pick in the 5th after I  went RB-TE-QB-RB. Maybe I grab the next 2 WR in my rankings because they’re the last of a tier regardless of their ADP.

It’s pretty situationally dependent. I try not to reach much as a general practice. I’d rather let the value come to me. 

 
Here is a typical draft day scenario. The top 6-7 tight ends are gone. Or let’s say enough for a 4 point passing TD league, 9 QBs gone and it’s 20 pics till it comes back to you. Do you reach for a QB so you don’t have to stream? And same question with the tight ends.

I find it super easy to stream quarterbacks in a one QB league. Our guys typically roster 18 to 20 QBs, 12 teams. Every year - every. single. year. - quarterbacks emerge. These days I find it tough to stream tight ends and you’re almost always bottom three.
Now we’re talking runs, and I've been in that position more times than I like to admit.

last year I picked 1.03 & there was a run on QBs between 3.04 & 4.10 when it made it back to me.

So i punted & went WR-RB 4/5

I waited until the 8th, and noticed that teams 1-2 both had QBs, so took Watson 9.03. he was rock solid for me most every week. Certainly no worse than whatever QB I could have taken at the end of the 4th immediately after that run. 

I’ve punted on TEs many years as well & generally ended up with something serviceable. 

 
A lot of that depends on 1. your team needs at the time, and 2. how the draft has unfolded to that point. 

In that context, almost any player I want at a position I perceive has a greater drop-off from one tier to the next is worth picking there. 

I just don’t really see that as a reach though unless the player’s ADP indicates that they should make it back to me anyway. 

I could see doing that if a run at a certain position happened - for example, 5 straight WRs right before your pick in the 5th after I  went RB-TE-QB-RB. Maybe I grab the next 2 WR in my rankings because they’re the last of a tier regardless of their ADP.

It’s pretty situationally dependent. I try not to reach much as a general practice. I’d rather let the value come to me. 
Completely agree, and I think it goes without saying context always matters. Let the draft come to you.

That said, I find my ranks & my Tiers are always a little out of sync with consensus. The reason is I’m drafting oftentimes with the last six weeks of the season in mind. I don’t want to make the playoffs, I presume that will happen. I want to put myself in the best position to win the playoffs. So I’m not interested in aging veterans who are going to have good seasons but where the upside is limited.

The guys I take in the first five or six rounds are mostly to win in September. Pretty much after that everyone is taken with November and December in mind. Usually. But every draft is different, try to read the room, 

 
Based on Meyer saying they want more explosiveness at the position and drafting Etienne in Round 1?
The article I linked (from a site that covers the Jags) painted a picture where Robinson would be the primary runner and Etienne would be a mismatch receiving option. They estimated Etienne would get 6 or so carries a game. That aligns with other reports that he’s been practicing as a WR and lining up all over the place. 

I haven’t really looked into it, but I am not sure I personally would go chasing a rookie RB that at first glance looks like a 100 carry, 50 reception back with an ADP of RB14.

A lot of these types of threads have good intentions, but there are so many variables to individual leagues that makes it hard to compare players and strategies (scoring system, league size, starting roster requirements, number of reserves, guppies or sharks, geography of the league, etc.).

 
hmm a lot of you seem bogged down by the definition of reach here.

What I think of as a reach is when you will take a player a round or more before their ADP because you want to ensure that you get that player.

One of those players for me this year is Travis Etienne.
I agree the definition of the word is a little different for everybody.....if you are in the middle of the draft slots....and you take a guy because you don't think he will make it back to you, that is not really a "reach" cause you are basically saying he is going to go around where you think anyway (the next few picks)....so it's not really reaching...

if you are on the ends....a pick may "look" like a reach, when it really is just you just maybe having that player ranked higher than the 20+ picks are going and you want to go ahead and lock them down....it looks and smells like a reach but its just what you have to do....cause he won't make it back...

to me, most of the times in a draft where I thought to myself...."wow that was a reach" usually seemed to be when an owner seemed to have bought in to some nugget of preseason hype and jumped on a guy almost to get the "shock value" reaction of the room.....like a player that everybody in the room might want to add later so some owner decides to be "that guy" just to get a reaction....and grabs him early.....way before he was really going to start popping on people's radar....

at QB things get a little different....like if Mahomes goes as pick 2.01....is that really a reach....most of us admit he should be first QB off the board and is going to put up elite numbers at the position....and the guy in the 12 spot knows he may not make it back to 3.12.....so it may be a reach by ADP or value (or just a bad strategy).....but Mahomes is almost "reach proof" so to speak....

with all the info out there and the easy access and often pre populated "draft lists".....I think we have seen less and less actual "reaches"....

but to answer the question my reaches this year might be Higbee and Gus Edwards..... ;)

 
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Here is a typical draft day scenario. The top 6-7 tight ends are gone. Or let’s say enough for a 4 point passing TD league, 9 QBs gone and it’s 20 pics till it comes back to you. Do you reach for a QB so you don’t have to stream? And same question with the tight ends.

I find it super easy to stream quarterbacks in a one QB league. Our guys typically roster 18 to 20 QBs, 12 teams. Every year - every. single. year. - quarterbacks emerge. These days I find it tough to stream tight ends and you’re almost always bottom three.
If you don't overpay for one of the top-5 TEs, you're basically in the same boat as the other 7 teams in your league.  All of you are streaming and hoping to have the right guy in your lineup the week he scores a TD. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
The article I linked (from a site that covers the Jags) painted a picture where Robinson would be the primary runner and Etienne would be a mismatch receiving option. They estimated Etienne would get 6 or so carries a game. That aligns with other reports that he’s been practicing as a WR and lining up all over the place. 

I haven’t really looked into it, but I am not sure I personally would go chasing a rookie RB that at first glance looks like a 100 carry, 50 reception back with an ADP of RB14.

A lot of these types of threads have good intentions, but there are so many variables to individual leagues that makes it hard to compare players and strategies (scoring system, league size, starting roster requirements, number of reserves, guppies or sharks, geography of the league, etc.).
How many times have we heard about a RB lining up at WR during the offseason, and how many times was that the reality in season?

RB14 seems high to me also - I do see Robinson as a potential detriment to Etienne's ceiling but calling Robinson the main RB doesn't seem realistic.

ETA: I just checked my ppr projections and ETN ends up as RB17, so maybe 14 isn't all that high. In non-ppr, he would drop considerably for me.

 
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How many times have we heard about a RB lining up at WR during the offseason, and how many times was that the reality in season?

RB14 seems high to me also - I do see Robinson as a potential detriment to Etienne's ceiling but calling Robinson the main RB doesn't seem realistic.

ETA: I just checked my ppr projections and ETN ends up as RB17, so maybe 14 isn't all that high. In non-ppr, he would drop considerably for me.
The comparisons that at have seen was more of a Reggie Bush role when he was in NO than a CMC role. So 8-10 carries a game and probably 4-5 receptions. I haven’t really looked around a ton, but I don’t believe I have seen him projected to have more carries than Robinson this year. 

I personally don’t buy in all that much to PLAYER X was a first round pick as a RB as a compelling argument to being a great fantasy asset. The majority of first round NFL drafted RBs in the last decade plus have been fantasy disappointments as rookies. I might give him a bump as he will likely be on the field if the Jags are losing and therefore could haul in more passes. But as you said, in 0 PPR leagues he is a lot less intriguing. 

 
Brandin Cooks is on pretty much everyone of my best ball rosters.

Houston will be a dumpster fire but Cooks has a proven track record and there is basically zero competition for targets there.  Tyrod can be serviceable.  I usually pass over 9-10 guys on the next up list by ADP to grab Cooks.

 
Brandin Cooks is on pretty much everyone of my best ball rosters.

Houston will be a dumpster fire but Cooks has a proven track record and there is basically zero competition for targets there.  Tyrod can be serviceable.  I usually pass over 9-10 guys on the next up list by ADP to grab Cooks.
I know things change from season to season but I had him last year and he left me....meh. Like washing your hands with rubber kitchen gloves on. You know they are in the water but they are not getting wet. 

 
I know things change from season to season but I had him last year and he left me....meh. Like washing your hands with rubber kitchen gloves on. You know they are in the water but they are not getting wet. 
The guy has ranked in the Top 16 wide receivers 5 times in 6 years on 4 different teams . . . yet gets very little respect in the fantasy community.

 
Brandin Cooks is a god at his ADP. That guy is always a top 20 WR at bargain basement pricing.

I'm going to reach for AJ Dillon - I'm not convinces that A. Jones doesn't duck-n-cover now that he got paid. 

J Chase

Chase Edmonds

B. Aiyuk - someone's going to be the new Julio Jones in this offense, it's NOT going to be Deebo

Tannehill - top 5 QB each of past 2 seasons yet never gets considered as such.now add Julio, and subtract that dopey OC Arthur Smith..Tanny is going to eat this year! come get you some! 

Burrow is going to be dynamic

 
you lost that badge, pal! :lol:  
I know I was trying to get some use out of that even though it expired.

We went down this road before and we do not see eye to eye on this. You seem to think ADP is the law while I think ADP is wrong.

Last time we went down this road it was because a guy was talking about taking Dalvin Cook in the 1st round and you said it was wrong to do that but Cook ended up being the 2nd best RB that year and you were wrong.

I was offended that you called my perspective on anything myopic. I am always trying to look at things from as many possible angles as I can.

My valuation of ETN is based on my belief in his talent and when he catches 70+ this season you will all be signing a different tune about him going into 2022.

 
We went down this road before and we do not see eye to eye on this. You seem to think ADP is the law while I think ADP is wrong.
no. The framing of this isn’t accurate. We both agree that ADP can be wrong. 

my contention was that one should exploit ADP at every opportunity. so if a player is going to be there with your next pick (As in that cook scenario)  then one should capitalize on that. 

it had zero to do with “ADP = law” and I would never say that. What I said at the time was if you’re picking  5th and Cook is going late 2nd, then you’re not getting the best value on him at 1.05 since you could have had him at 2.08 with his “injury discount”. 

i’m not sure why you feel the need to re-litigate this a year++ later, but don’t misrepresent my POV in doing so. It’s idishonest.

Last time we went down this road it was because a guy was talking about taking Dalvin Cook in the 1st round and you said it was wrong to do that but Cook ended up being the 2nd best RB that year and you were wrong.
I wasn’t wrong. I never said Cook couldn’t be a top 5 player. I said that didn’t justify reaching for him by a full round. 

I was offended that you called my perspective on anything myopic. I am always trying to look at things from as many possible angles as I can.
I don’t recall calling you myopic - apologies if I offended. 

My valuation of ETN is based on my belief in his talent and when he catches 70+ this season you will all be signing a different tune about him going into 2022.
I’m not sure why you’re addressing this to me. I haven’t really opined abut ETN other than saying I’m likely to avoid Jags. I agree he’s a talented back & the Jags use him as the Saints used Kamara, he could be a great value. This comment may be misdirected at me though. 

 
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That said, I find my ranks & my Tiers are always a little out of sync with consensus.
I generally see that as a good thing when it comes to exploiting the rankings or exploiting ADP.

One of my first exercises every year is to go over both and see where my rankings are in disagreement.  If a player I liked turns out to be going a full round or two higher than I value him, that’s less than ideal. To me the key to drafting well is finding where there are gems. Undervalued players who may be going a round or two after I rank them. 

Everything is a guide. Nothing is law. Groupthink says X player should be taken at a certain point. That gives me a guideline to know if I can get a good value on him. Montgomery & M.Carter are good examples of that. Maybe Chase Edmonds too. Robby Anderson looks a bit underrated at his ADP, along with Mike Williams as a potential bargain 4th WR.

The whole point of ADP to me is to know where others value players. I would always rather take a guy a round later than a round early though. 

I dunno - it’s a tricky topic, because apparently there’s more than one definition of “reach”. To me any players you’ll get in the next round that you decide isn’t worth the risk of missing is a reach. But the irony is you won’t know if you reached for them. At least not unless the rest of the league is laughing at you for 2 more rounds for doing so. Otherwise there’s no confirmation of whether he woulda made it or not. 

 
In Dyno I’d be reaching for javonte and sermon in every draft. I’d also have lots of rookie and second year wrs by the end of the draft. 

 
draft the guy you want before he's gone. i pull muscles w how much I reach and Im always competitive. always.
The thing is general ADP is semi-meaningless in an individual league. I wouldn’t advocate that you should be taking your late round flyers in early rounds - but if some website tells me Joe Mixon is going in Round 3, that doesn’t mean he isn’t going early Round 2 in my league.

People get way too hung up on ADP. The only reason I’m even aware of the ADP on most players is from reading this forum.

 
In Dyno I’d be reaching for javonte and sermon in every draft. I’d also have lots of rookie and second year wrs by the end of the draft. 
In Dynasty the concept of reach is definitely different than redraft. 

When you say you’d “reach” for Sermon & Javonte, what does that really mean though? 
in superflex, they’re going end of 1st/early 2nd. 

In 1-QB leagues they’re late to end of 1st round picks.

are you saying you’d take them ahead of guys like Chase, Pitts & other consensus-ranked top 5-6 guys? 

Just trying to understand how you’d define reaching for them. 

 
The thing is general ADP is semi-meaningless in an individual league. I wouldn’t advocate that you should be taking your late round flyers in early rounds - but if some website tells me Joe Mixon is going in Round 3, that doesn’t mean he isn’t going early Round 2 in my league.
completely agree. 

one of the best exercises I’ve done in years was when I started to look back at prior year’s drafts to watch not only who my league mates took and where (compared to ADP for that year) but also their draft tendencies. 

It’s remarkable how patterns emerge. Last year I stymied one dude again and again, knowing his draft pattern was WR-WR-RB-QB. I picked next to him & just murdered him on several of the odd rounds because I knew he was likely to take that position.  It’s not infallible, but he kept complaining about it so I know I got him at least a few times. 

never at the expense of taking a player I wanted, of course, but it does help me to make a difficult choice if I know what those around me are more or less likely to do. If I know the 3 teams 1-3 all take QB in the later rounds, and the 4-5 turn is coming, I’m not gonna pick a QB until 5, for example. 

I never see draft articles about this, but It’s a huge advantage if you play with the same group in redraft year after year. 

People get way too hung up on ADP. The only reason I’m even aware of the ADP on most players is from reading this forum.
I keep an eye on it for my redraft because i know that at least 4 guys in my league rely on it heavily. If I’m somewhere between 4th & 8th position, I use it to try to figure who they will take, rather than who I should take. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
In Dynasty the concept of reach is definitely different than redraft. 

When you say you’d “reach” for Sermon & Javonte, what does that really mean though? 
in superflex, they’re going end of 1st/early 2nd. 

In 1-QB leagues they’re late to end of 1st round picks.

are you saying you’d take them ahead of guys like Chase, Pitts & other consensus-ranked top 5-6 guys? 

Just trying to understand how you’d define reaching for them. 
My reply was based on dynasty startup drafts. 

 
My reply was based on dynasty startup drafts. 
I got that - what I’m wondering is who you’re saying you’d reach for those two players over.  Sorry if that was unclear.

More established players? other rookies? 

 
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